Precinct 204

Here's the kind of stuff that makes me wonder about Democratic Party efforts and the legitimacy of the ballot counts.  I am in Bellingham Precinct 204. PC 204 is a large, urban, liberal, Democrat precinct. I know because I live there. These precincts have no Democrats PCO's currently. 

202BellinghamWest of Bellis Fair423 vacant

203BellinghamNW Birchwood423 vacant 

204BellinghamWest of Cornwall Park423 vacant 

That's a shame because they are urban districts that all under performed in turnout% for the 2009 General Election :

PC# Reg  BC  TO%

202 517  211 40.81% 

203 1020 554 54.31% 

204 1386 608 43.87%

PC 202 actually voted for Kershner over McShane for the 2009 general after overwhelmingly voting for Obama/Biden in 2008. If you compare those precinct  results with 2008 General you see that not only was sum turnout for the three cut more than half between the elections but that PC 204 (the largest of the three) actually lost 95 registered voters between the elections:

PC# Reg   BC    TO%

202 543   438    80.66% 

203 1022  904   88.45% 

204 1481  1284  86.70%

The end result is that my precinct (204) had 1284  votes counted in November 2008. Only 608  votes were counted this year. I find those numbers difficult to believe.  Had my precinct had the same turnout this year as last, McShane would have won just from our precinct alone.

And this year I give thanks for....Naomi Klein!

I was sitting there having a thoroughly wretched Thanksgiving, wondering in God's name what exactly our country's economy will look like in six months. To escape my mood, I put in a DVD I picked up at Bellingham's  Film is Truth 24 Times a Second : "The Rise of Disaster Capitalism" by economist/journalist Naomi Klein .  The film is a British speech and interview that explains her wildly successful "The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism".  In the film and the follow on interview, Ms. Klein drives home an important series of points:

(1) The series of unending political and economic crises that the world has been repeatedly subjected to in the last 10 years is designed to numb and shock us so that
(2) political and economic profiteers can usurp and profiteer and remake the world to their best interests (e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq, Burma, New Orleans).
(3) The current economic crisis is just another economic shock under the rise of disaster capitalism.

This puts all the unemployment, foreclosures, "border line criminal" bailouts of the last year into perspective:  The bailout has been designed to impoverish us and disempower us while we suffer the shock  of unemployment and foreclosure and bankruptcy.  Also, Matt Taibbi searing article on Obama's recovery for the rich is in this month's Rolling Stone.

Happy Thanksgiving!

For all you bhammers in credit card debt...

Airing tonight for much of the nation ( but in Western Washington on December 1st at 9:00 PM on KCTS ) will be  The Card Game . The Card Game will be on air and online November 24, 2009 at 9:00pm. :

"As credit card companies face rising public anger, new regulation from Washington and staggering new rates of default and bankruptcy, FRONTLINE correspondent Lowell Bergman investigates the future of the massive consumer loan industry and its impact on a fragile national economy. In The Card Game, a follow-up to the Secret History of the Credit Card and a joint project with The New York Times airing Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, at 9 P.M. ET on PBS (check local listings), Bergman and the Times talk to industry insiders, lobbyists, politicians and consumer advocates as they square off over attempts to reform the way the industry has done business for decades."

Unfettered Optimism vs The Truth

The Bellingham Herald, the Wall Street Journal, Warren Buffet, the NABE are full of rehetoric this morning that might make the casual reader think that the housing market still lives and that an increase in some economic statistics might be evidence of a recovery.  In reality, all these sources are practicing "hopeful journalism".  It is not bad journalism. If you tell the human mind that life is getting better, there is a chance to create optimism. This is important. Optimism greases the world of sales and investment. Back now, however, to the hard truth about our country's weak fundamentals.

With the FED and the TREASURY continuing to purchase billions $$$ of mortgages, with foreclosure and deliquency rates continuing to rise, housing prices continuing to drop and unemployment (both U-3 and U-6) continuing to rise, there really is little reason to hope for anything a reasonable person might call a recovery.  Proclamations that the recession is over mean nothing to those caught in the "jobless recovery". The unemployment rate is high enough that the members of Congressional Black Caucus derailed democratic efforts at financial reform, claiming that the bill does too little to stop continued unemployment. Looking at the graphs below, you can understand why.

An interest group  has put together data at IBM's "Many Eyes" to show why so many are interested in restarting employment.  In the graphs below, the first view is expected - black and hispanic unemployment are  always higher in an American recession than white unemployment. What is interesting to me is the second graph, which sets unemployment for all three races at the same "relative set start" in 1973.  Notice that at no time in the last thrity years has white unemployment apparently risen so high so fast:

More information on why this unemployment trend may not abate can be found by listening to Robert Reich , Meredith Whitney and Doug Noland.

Robert Reich
"The Great Disconnect Between Stocks and Jobs"
"Obama, China, and Wishful Thinking About American Jobs"


Meredith Whitney  gives a great interview on the weakness of American credit and banking fundamentals.

I will let the brilliant Doug Noland have the last words:

"It is my thesis that there is no alternative than a major transformation of the underlying structure of the U.S. economy.  In simplest terms, we must produce much more, consume much less and do it with a lot less Credit creation.  The objective of current policymaking, however, is to quickly rejuvenate housing and asset prices with the intention of sustaining the legacy economic structure.  Zero interest-rate policy is key to this strategy.  The objective is to push savers out to the risk asset markets, as well as to transfer returns on savings from the savers to be used instead to recapitalize the banking/financial system.  If this reflation is unsuccessful, the household sector will find itself with only greater exposure to risky assets. 


No only is the current course of policymaking unjust, I believe it is flawed.  The nation’s housing markets will remain rather impervious to low rates, while the household sector is punished with near zero returns on its savings.  At the same time, monetary policy will continue to play a major role in dollar devaluation and higher consumer prices for energy and imports.  Financial sector profits have already bounced back strongly, but there is little market incentive to direct new finance in a manner that would fund any semblance of economic transformation.  The focus remains on financing the old structure.  Indeed, I would argue that the current course of policymaking and market interventions only work to delay the unavoidable economic adjustment process."

EBM in Village Books...

I just saw the most fascinating technology at Village Books: an Espresso Book Machine!!:

This machine will allow an author to "self-publish" on demand.  Imagine what this could mean for a town as politicized as Bellingham. Let us suppose you have a local subject of intense interest, say municipal growth and development.  You sponsor a small section of known authors on the subject and reserve a section for local authors who have seen fit to print pamphlets/books on the subject (e.g. "My fifteen year plan for the City of Bellingham").  You then leverage local interest on demand for local publishers/authors/community activists while presenting a  well rounded selection from traditional publishing houses!  How fantastic!!

Village Books is apparently ahead of the curve on this. On Demand Books list them as one of the few nationwide book sellers hosting this machine.

WTA, Library, Jail and Probation...

I guess I can hardly resist this post.  I received this call just now on my cell phone (caller 1000):
"Good Evening, this is the local Whatcom County Transit Authority.  We have a survey we are asking of members of your household between the ages of 16 - 29. Are you between the ages of 16 - 29?"
"Unfortunately not," I truthfully replied.
"Is there anyone in your household between the ages of 16 - 29 who would like to take our short survey concerning Whatcom County Transit?"
"No, there is not," I truthfully replied again.
"Thanks so much for your time!"

Denied my chance to talk about Whatcom County Transit tonight, I will admit I don't really have much to say right now about the library cuts, the WTA cuts, the recently proposed jail and probation cuts. Each would have there own specific issues. But in general, these cuts in government services are what happens to counties and cities when local economies collapse.  It is the hallmark of desperate contractions in economic revenue that overused city services (like libraries, transport, jails) get slashed when they appear to be needed the most.  In effect, economic contractions shrink governments and shrink power.  They also shrink employment and because government is such an important part of total economic activity, these cuts amplify the contraction. Clearly, we will not recover the sales, property, and B&O taxes we need to restore or expand government services unless we redirect all our efforts toward economic growth. In this case, that means growing jobs.

MBAA:Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Rise

Today's dose of happy news comes (below) from the Mortgage Bankers Association . I have highlighted in bold  what I consider to be MBA's Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann most significant thoughts.  I don't know Mr. Brinkmann, but I admire his frank and incisive delivery of information. The hard reality of such deliberate and provocative press releases from an industry like the MBAA is that economic realities in this country are most probably at least as dark as Mr. Brinkmann portrays them. Mortgage Bankers do not benefit from lack of consumer confidence.  If they speak to the country in direct, measured terms, the reader should clearly take away from their rhetoric a cry for help, IMHO.  I encourage local or regional policy leaders who read this press release  to purchase MBAA data for all regions in the United States and carefully project, based on that data, outcomes for economic activity, homelessness, foreclosure, employment and poverty in their communities. -RMF

From http://www.mbaa.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/71112.htm :

Increases Driven by Prime and FHA Loans
“Despite the recession ending in mid-summer, the decline in mortgage performance continues. Job losses continue to increase and drive up delinquencies and foreclosures because mortgages are paid with paychecks, not percentage point increases in GDP. Over the last year, we have seen the ranks of the unemployed increase by about 5.5 million people, increasing the number of seriously delinquent loans by almost 2 million loans and increasing the rate of new foreclosures from 1.07 percent to 1.42 percent,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist.
....

“The outlook is that delinquency rates and foreclosure rates will continue to worsen before they improve. First, it is unlikely the employment picture will get better until sometime next year and even then jobs will increase at a very slow pace.  Perhaps more importantly, there is no reason to expect that when the economy begins to add more jobs, those jobs will be in areas with the biggest excess housing inventory and the highest delinquency rates. Second, the number of loans 90 days or more past due or in foreclosure is now a little over 4 million as compared with 3.9 million new and previously occupied homes currently for sale, although there is likely some overlap between the two numbers. The ultimate resolution of these seriously delinquent loans will put added pressure on the hardest hit sections of the country.”

One month...

According to Google Analytics this blog has been receiving traffic for one month now. Google tracks those website visits that leave cookies.  I have created 30 posts (!!!),  some or all of which have had 441 visits from 222 absolute visitors in 37 cities located in 8 countries. Those countries are:

1. United States 393
2. Canada 10
3. India 3
4. Philippines 2
5. Taiwan 2
6. (not set) 2
7. Israel 1
8. Indonesia 1
 
 The top ten visiting cities are:

1. Bellingham 309
2. Seattle 30
3. (not set) 11
4. Portland 8
5. Burlington 7
6. Ferndale 6
7. Everett 5
8. Plano 5
9. Ithaca 3
10. New York 2

The visits remind me of how national and international Bellingham's economic reality probably is - an important subject for another post.

The Focus on Jobs Again

The press and blogosphere are finally talking about jobs in earnest again.  It apparently took 10.2% national unemployment rate to bring the "jobs question"  back into the same focus the Democrats has placed on it before the election.  Simultaneously, some people are starting to talk a lot about "greed".  This is a good sign.  It means Americans will stop spending their time  worrying mindlessly about terrorism and patriotism and start thinking about
(1) their own economic self-interest and
(2) the importance of economic justice.
They may also start wondering why all their wealth has disappeared and who has that wealth now.  The first thing middle-class America needs to do is recover their anger and self-respect. President Obama will host a Forum on Jobs and Economic Growth on December 3rd.  Make sure to participate!

Jim Hightower gets biblical.  Almost starts to remind you of Norman Thomas:
Hightower: Obscenely Rich Bankers Claim to Do God's Work -- They Can Go to Hell
By Jim Hightower, AlterNet. Posted November 18, 2009. :

"Profit is not satanic," the CEO of Barclays recently proclaimed. "Size is not necessarily evil," asserted the head of Deutsche Bank.
But leave it to Lloyd Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs (and the world's highest-paid banker -- $68 million in 2007 alone) to combine self-pity with self-adulation in a grandiose PR effort to reposition financial thieves as paragons of social altruism. "I know I could slit my writs and people would cheer," he acknowledged in an interview published Nov. 8 in London's Sunday Times. But, he said of himself and his big banking brethren," We're very important. We help companies to grow by helping them to raise capital. Companies that create more growth and more wealth. This, in turn, allows people to have jobs that create more growth and more wealth. It's a virtuous cycle."

Here's how the Democrats were playing the jobs issue before the election:
Hispanic Unemployment Disproportionately High, as Americans Lose Jobs for Seventh Straight Month 
Big Oil Continues to Rake in Record Profits
August 1, 2008

“This week has made it crystal clear that the only ones doing well in the Bush-McCain economy are oil company executives,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) said. “As we pay more than ever to fill our tanks and to heat and cool our homes, Exxon, BP, Shell and Chevron all announced billions in new profits – including the highest single-quarter take in history.  Meanwhile, American jobs continue to disappear, millions have seen their full-time jobs cut to part-time work and unemployment has reached a four-year high. It is disturbing that none of this news seems to concern Bush-McCain Republicans.  While employers have cut jobs for seven straight months, Republicans have blocked at least seven of our efforts this year to create good-paying jobs here at home by investing in alternative, renewable energy sources.”

Here's where the White House is at on jobs today:
White House Announces December Date for Forum on Jobs and Economic Growth 
WASHINGTON, DC- The Obama Administration announced plans today to hold the Forum on Jobs and Economic Growth on Thursday, December 3rd at the White House.  The forum will be an opportunity for the President and the economic team to hear from some of the best and brightest CEOs, small business owners, and financial experts about ideas for continuing to grow the economy and put Americans back to work.

“During these difficult economic times, we have a responsibility to consider all good ideas to encourage and accelerate job creation in this country.  At the forum next month, I am looking forward to hearing from the private sector, from CEOs and small business owners and from Americans struggling to make ends meet on how we can work together to create jobs and get this economy moving again,” said President Barack Obama.

This is how Joe Biden's top economist describes wealth inequality:
For Whom the (Trading) Bell Tolls: Reforming Wall St. to Protect Main St. 
And while the top was surfing the big wave, the middle class was treading water and the poor were drowning. Despite years of economic growth and solid productivity in the last economic expansion, the median income went nowhere and poverty rose.  Incredibly, according to Census Bureau data, real median household income in 2008 was about $1,000 lower—that's right, I said lower—than it was a decade before.

Robert Reich is really hammering this issue home:
"The Great Disconnect Between Stocks and Jobs" :
"At the same time, the Treasury continues to be fixated on keeping banks afloat. The Administration's mortgage mitigation efforts are lagging. Small businesses are starved of credit. The White House has announced a "jobs summit," which is better than nothing but not nearly as good as pushiing immediately for a larger stimulus, a new jobs tax credit, and a WPA-style jobs program.

The Fed and the Teasury have, in effect, placed a huge bet on a recovery driven by asset prices. That’s a bad bet. The great disconnect between the stock market and jobs is pushing stock prices way out of line with the real economy. This isn't sustainable."

Robert Reich also has a great talked entitled "How Unequal Can America Get Before We Snap?"

How to make the next Silicon Valley in Bellingham

I am in process of reading a great series of blog posts by Dug Song, a well-known genius in the security space that I have crossed paths with a bit while I was working at a company that was then named Hiverworld.  Dug lays out the failure of Ann Arbor to attract enough venture capital and top notch startups to make the city competitive with Boulder, Palo Alto, Berkley, etc.   Dug has a point of view I would almost like to steal verbatim to help grow Whatcom County and Belligham (except for the fact that I don't do skateboards):

"Yes, I'm actually from the Internet, having lived most of my adult life online. And to paraphrase a Radiohead song:
" I'm a geek. I'm a weirdo. What the hell am I doing here? I don't belong here." After 15 years here, and seeing a ton of friends and companies come and go, I'm at a crossroads, trying to determine if I should keep my family here. While I've proven most of my family and friends wrong by staying this long, I can no longer ignore the giant sucking sound as the best, brightest, and most amazing people I've met here continue to be siphoned off to the coasts - and with them, the culture and community I've loved.  figure I have two more years to figure this out, before my 3-year old son starts school. So I've embarked on the ruthless execution of a completely self-serving agenda to fulfill my own nobrow, capitalist-pig hierarchy of needs by then:

a skatepark, and art/skate/punk culture
hacker culture and community
startups"
 
In trying to understand the commercial market for startups in Ann Arbor, Dug quotes a brilliant article by Paul Graham ("How to be Silicon Valley") where Graham describes what it takes to attract brilliant young people and the risk-taking entrepreneurs that drive wealth and growth in a few select cities across the nation:

"Nerds will pay a premium to live in a town where the smart people are really smart, but you don't have to pay as much for that. It's supply and demand: glamour is popular, so you have to pay a lot for it. Most nerds like quieter pleasures. They like cafes instead of clubs; used bookshops instead of fashionable clothing shops; hiking instead of dancing; sunlight instead of tall buildings. A nerd's idea of paradise is Berkeley or Boulder."

Graham ending quote makes me believe there is real hope for Bellingham to attract talent away from Berkeley and Boulder: 

"For all its power, Silicon Valley has a great weakness: the paradise Shockley found in 1956 is now one giant parking lot. San Francisco and Berkeley are great, but they're forty miles away. Silicon Valley proper is soul-crushing suburban sprawl. It has fabulous weather, which makes it significantly better than the soul-crushing sprawl of most other American cities. But a competitor that managed to avoid sprawl would have real leverage. All a city needs is to be the kind of place the next traitorous eight look at and say "I want to stay here," and that would be enough to get the chain reaction started.

PSE public hearing for 7.7% rate increase

PSE has proposed a rate increase of 7.7% for electrical power. There will be hearings on the  following dates according my utility bill:

• December 7, 2009 Bremerton Norm Dicks Government Center
• December 10, 2009 Lake Washington Technical College Auditorium
• January 19, 2010  Olympia Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission 

You can also send comment at http://www.utc.wa.gov/comment referencing docket numbers UE-090704 (according to my utility bill).

Many residents of the Pacific Northwest think the Macquarie buyout will bring permanent annual increases in electricity to the Northwest which generally has had low electrical rates due to significant hydro-power generation capability.  Some counties are interested in exercising their right to form a Public Utilities District. Enclosed (far) below  are some links concerning the Macquarie/PSE takeover and the PUD option. Whatcom County has a PUD (Whatcom PUD1) that was established in 1937. It provides a substantial amount of power to industrial customers and owns physical assets in Whatcom County.

Whenever, I think about the public power option, I remember back to some younger days when I lived with a previous belle in the wonderful city of Palo Alto, CA.  My belle at the time was pursuing her Ph.D in psychology  at  a rather large and somewhat successful educational institution  located essentially next door to Palo Alto.  ( Since I was, and still remain a "sturdy golden bear",  I will not commit heresy by printing this educational institution's name in my blog today.)  Needless to say, the people that run Palo Alto  make sure it is quite possibly the most intelligently run city government on the West Coast.  One thing they get right in Palo Alto is public ownership of utilities:

"The City of Palo Alto Utilities (CPAU) is the only municipal utility in California that operates city-owned utility services that include electric, fiber optic, natural gas, water and wastewater services. "

This enables the city of Palo Alto to do something quite remarkable.  Fund city income with ownership of municipal utilities.

"One of the founding principles of these early pioneers was that the utilities must show a financial return to the community. This has continued to be a priority. In the most recent fiscal year, the electric, gas, and water utilities provided millions in financial support to community services such as libraries, parks, police and fire protection. These contributions to the community do not occur in areas served by private power companies. This makes Palo Alto a unique place to live and work."  

While I lived in Palo Alto with this house of graduate students, California was suffering from a continuing and later famous energy crisis that eventually ended up virtually bankrupting the state, the top utility, resulting in the recall of the then Democrat governor and the election of a Hollywood movie star to replace him.  The city of Palo Alto, however, was not suffering from an energy crisis. You see, CPA, at that time (and probably still) owned a dam in California. It was making such a profit selling its unused electricity, that (while I was there), it was returning to Palo Alto utility customers/residents a check instead of a bill.  Receiving that check was an experience I never forgot.

More recent information and links on  the PUD struggle in WA:

http://www.wpuda.org/pdf/Connections/2008-Summer.pdf
http://www.scribd.com/doc/6484866/PSE-Rate-Study
http://aimediaserver4.com/theenergydaily/ED_10292007.pdf
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/editorialsopinion/2008009433_pugetenergyed22.html
http://citizensforlocalpower.blogspot.com/
http://citizensforlocalpower.blogspot.com/2008/09/pse-executive-payouts-with-macquarie.html
http://citizensforlocalpower.wordpress.com/
http://www.nwcitizen.us/entry/macquarie-purchase-of-puget-sound-energy
http://www.seattlepi.com/business/358441_pse10.html
http://www.whidbeypud.org/news13.html
http://www.ferc.gov/news/news-releases/2008/2008-2/04-17-08-E-12.asp
http://www.macquarie.com/us/about_macquarie/media_centre/20071026a.htm
http://www.whidbeyexaminer.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&subsectionID=1&articleID=1724
http://www.nwenergy.org/news/updated-bright-future-report-now-available

Third Quarter existing home sales from NAR show HOUSING IS DEAD!!

The National Association of Realtors reported that median prices of existing homes fell in 123 of 153 metropolitan areas from third quarter '08 to third quarter '09, leaving us with a national median price of $177,900 (down 11.9%), according to an article in the Wall Street Journal today. Distressed and short sales made up 30% of all transactions in the third quarter across the country. The first time homebuyers credit, recently extended by Barack Obama and Congress, is being heavily credited by NAR with the 11.4% rise  in national home sales pictured below:

There can't by any industry in the history of man that has received more tax breaks, stimulus funding,bank  bailouts, federal Treasury and FED buyouts (of mortgages!) than our broken housing/mortgage industry.  Let's just face it: Housing IS DEAD. Say it with me again: Housing IS DEAD! For eight years too long we milked and over-milked and overextended the great CDO/Mortgage Finance/Housing Appreciation Credit Bubble instead of building real jobs and a real economy in America. And now: HOUSING IS DEAD!!.  Applying the shock pads continually to the lifeless Mortgage Finance Economy, watching the corpse jump a bit, then declaring: "Look it still lives!" is just bullshit and all the monies and tax breaks we are pumping into the NOW DEAD HOUSING ECONOMY is wasting our little remaining federal deficit spending capacity and PREVENTING US FROM GROWING JOBS in engineering, finance, technology, research and development. The shadow of George Bush's failed economy still lives.  It is hampering you from any real progress as an executive Mr. President.

I completely agree with efforts to stop foreclosures and keep people in their homes. A braver Barack Obama once talked about federal legislation to exempt primary residences from the bankruptcy process.  At this point, the president and the congress ought to simply declare a blanket moratorium on all all foreclosures and establish a federal board to renegotiate all but the most egregious speculative attempts at foreclosure. Amid nationwide escalating unemployment and foreclosure rates, where does the housing industry think new demand will come from? Some endless pool of new buyers? Recycled buyers cannibalizing the home they are in for investment? Now bankrupt California/New York retirees?  Chinese and Russian REITs? Where? For Rove's sake, Show me the demand , baby! Show me the demand!!

 Why do you think the banks are hoarding all their new found Stimulus funding? For the next big growth phase in the economy? To pass some solvency test? NO, they are gathering and hoarding, waiting for the stimulus funding stop, waiting for the states and cities to dump into a very long winter crisis and then....they are going to hold onto their monies, loaning only to the rich, while small businesses evaporate and hunger invades every family in America.

Mr. President: Stop the spending $$$ on the housing industry bailout now!  In saving this industry, you aren't saving America, you are saving George Bush's fake substitute war-time economy that let us all believe we could keep spending "bubble funds"  while we fought expensive foreign wars.  Stop the war economy now! Rebuild jobs in America instead of propping up a dead housing economy.  If more houses are needed in our still overbuilt, over-supplied, bankrupt economy, then a spate of new jobs and $$$ in the hands of working middle class families will re-establish that demand.

Force local communities to BUILD JOBS, Mr. President.  Think outside the box!  Centralized employment planning has a long history in many countries for many years. Now is the time. Before the plutonomy take ALL OF THE WEALTH they stole from us elsewhere.

New article at the Cascadia Weekly...

Local editor Tim Johnson has published an article I have submitted - "Four Futures: BLEAK OUTCOMES LOOM FOR WHATCOM’S ECONOMY" -  in this week's issue of the CascadiaWeekly.  The article starts on page 6 and continues on page 33.  I promise more articles on economic forecasting and use of recovery monies in Whatcom County. :-).  Thanks Tim!

With 61027 counted...by leader...by participation

With 61,027  counted...by leader...by participation. These are 'unofficial' final tally results. All figures and analysis below are preliminary and may change.

A full analysis  and spreadsheet will come in the next post.  The leader columns of the eight county wide races defied block/party  voting patterns. What do the high-lead pairs (McCauley/Knutzen- both winning by greater than 7.56%), mid-lead pairs (Walker/Mann- both winning by greater than 4.00%) and low- lead pairs ( Weimer/Kershner -both winning only by greater than 0 .58 %) have in common politically?  Not much, this blogger will guess. If the vote was intentionally rigged to create a political gridlock so as to weaken government power and oversight,then  that objective may well see dividends in the coming year.  If such were the true decision of the electorate....

The fifth round of  ballot counting continued a pattern of conservative advance paired with increased voter 'fall off'  for the eight county races.  The respective 'fall off' percentage for the sum of all votes as the five rounds of  ballot counting progressed  became: 90.90%,  90.80%,  90.58%,  89.92%, 89.63%.   The 'fall off' percentages for the  races as measured per each round are much more dramatic. Some races lost almost 11% in voter participation rates due to 'fall off' (preliminary figure) as measured between the first and last rounds of ballot counting.  It appears that 'fall off' rates of almost 6% (between the first and last rounds of Council 1A ballot counting)  may have been responsible for McShane's loss and Kershner's victory (preliminary figures) . This  victory was demarcated by less than 400 votes.

Only 71 and 1033 gathered more than 50% of total registered voter participation.  1033 had the largest margin of victory (10.6%).  In reality, it most probably should be considered exceptional that 1033 gathered  26,023 votes in favor, despite being opposed by some members of both parties.

These are 'unofficial' final tally results. Final certification will not take place till the last week of November.  The 2009 General Election Voter History will not be available until December 1st at the earliest I have been told by the Auditor's office.  With 61,027 counted...by leader...by participation.

Race	% of Total Reg.	Lead 5 Count	Leader
1033	50.93%	10.60%	No
Port 2	43.08%	8.66%	McCauley
Co. Cncl At-Large	48.49%	7.56%	Knutzen
71	51.69%	6.92%	Yes
Port 1	44.98%	5.08%	Walker
Co. Cncl 2A	48.19%	4.00%	Mann
Co. Cncl 3A	47.64%	1.54%	Weimer
Co. Cncl 1A	47.84%	0.58%	Kershner

 

71	51.69%	6.92%	Yes
1033	50.93%	10.60%	No
Co. Cncl At-Large	48.49%	7.56%	Knutzen
Co. Cncl 2A	48.19%	4.00%	Mann
Co. Cncl 1A	47.84%	0.58%	Kershner
Co. Cncl 3A	47.64%	1.54%	Weimer
Port 1	44.98%	5.08%	Walker
Port 2	43.08%	8.66%	McCauley

With 57,275 votes counted...by leader...by participation

All of the county wide races took a decided turn toward conservative voting in this fourth round of ballot counting. Both 1033 (NO) and Initiative 71 (Yes) had their leads shrink for the first time.  McShane, who had increased his lead in the first two rounds of ballot counting, has been overcome by Kershner.  The number of possible votes for county wide races divided by the number of votes actually cast for county wide races continues to shrink with each round of ballot counts.  Another interesting trend is that the spread in "fall off" percentage between the race that gathers the most %Total Registered Voters (71 for all four rounds of ballot counting) and the race the gathers the least %Total Registered Voters (Port 2 for all four rounds of ballot counting) widens sequentially for each round of ballot counts. The breadth of the "fall off" increases with every successive round of ballot counting.

By leader:

Race	% of Total Reg.	Lead 4 Count	Leader
1033	47.84%	10.74%	No
Port 2	40.72%	8.82%	McCauley
71	48.50%	7.14%	Yes
Co. Cncl At-Large	45.67%	6.98%	Knutzen
Port 1	42.44%	4.84%	Walker
Co. Cncl 2A	45.37%	4.38%	Mann
Co. Cncl 3A	44.89%	1.90%	Weimer
Co. Cncl 1A	45.08%	0.44%	Kershner

By participation:

71	48.50%	7.14%	Yes
1033	47.84%	10.74%	No
Co. Cncl At-Large	45.67%	6.98%	Knutzen
Co. Cncl 2A	45.37%	4.38%	Mann
Co. Cncl 1A	45.08%	0.44%	Kershner
Co. Cncl 3A	44.89%	1.90%	Weimer
Port 1	42.44%	4.84%	Walker
Port 2	40.72%	8.82%	McCauley

Today's BLS report

This would be today's happy news from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics  :

Turning to measures from the survey of households, the
unemployment rate increased from 9.8 to 10.2 percent over the
month. Since the recession began, the jobless rate has
increased by 5.3 percentage points, while the number of
unemployed has more than doubled to 15.7 million.
The number of long-term unemployed remained high. In
October, 5.6 million workers had been jobless for 27 weeks or
more.
Among the employed, there were 9.3 million persons working
part time in October who would have preferred full-time work.
The number of such workers has doubled since the start of the
recession.
Among those outside the labor force--that is, persons
neither working nor looking for work--the number of discouraged
workers in October was 808,000, up from 484,000 a year earlier.
These individuals are not currently looking for work because
they believe no jobs are available for them.

With 46,447 votes counted...by leader...by participation.

With 46,447 votes counted...by leader...by participation.

I am tracking an interesting trend. The percentage of sum voter participation for all the county wide races (about 90%) is decreasing with every new batch of votes counted. It will be interesting to see if that trend holds up.  1033 and 71 continue to strengthen their percentage leads, as they have every voting round.  There are at least 61,294 ballots returned to date.

Race	% of Total Reg.	Lead 3 Count	Leader
1033	38.87%	11.22%	No
Port 2	33.63%	9.48%	McCauley
71	39.30%	8.94%	Yes
Co. Cncl 2A	36.97%	6.66%	Mann
Co. Cncl At-Large	37.22%	4.72%	Knutzen
Port 1	34.96%	4.24%	Walker
Co. Cncl 3A	36.68%	3.46%	Weimer
Co. Cncl 1A	36.84%	1.22%	McShane

Race	% of Total Reg.	Lead 3 Count	Leader
71	39.30%	8.94%	Yes
1033	38.87%	11.22%	No
Co. Cncl At-Large	37.22%	4.72%	Knutzen
Co. Cncl 2A	36.97%	6.66%	Mann
Co. Cncl 1A	36.84%	1.22%	McShane
Co. Cncl 3A	36.68%	3.46%	Weimer
Port 1	34.96%	4.24%	Walker
Port 2	33.63%	9.48%	McCauley

With 40,641 votes counted...by leader...by participation.

County-wide races with 40,641 votes counted...by leader...by participation.  With the exception of 1033 and 71, both of whom continue to strengthen their leads, none of these races are over. 1033, 71, McShane and McCauley strengthened their leads. Despite that, every current lead is up for grabs. For example, there are ~1600 votes separating Knutzen/Caskey-Schreiber with a mininum of 15K more to count. We could easily see 70K votes.

Race	% of Total Reg.	Lead 2 Count	Leader
1033	34.03%	10.78%	No
Port 2	29.65%	9.68%	McCauley
71	34.39%	8.86%	Yes
Co. Cncl 2A	32.41%	7.36%	Mann
Co. Cncl At-Large	32.63%	4.14%	Knutzen
Port 1	30.74%	4.12%	Walker
Co. Cncl 3A	32.17%	4.02%	Weimer
Co. Cncl 1A	32.28%	1.70%	McShane

Race	% of Total Reg.	Lead 2 Count	Leader
71	34.39%	8.86%	Yes
1033	34.03%	10.78%	No
Co. Cncl At-Large	32.63%	4.14%	Knutzen
Co. Cncl 2A	32.41%	7.36%	Mann
Co. Cncl 1A	32.28%	1.70%	McShane
Co. Cncl 3A	32.17%	4.02%	Weimer
Port 1	30.74%	4.12%	Walker
Port 2	29.65%	9.68%	McCauley

With 37,550 votes counted...by leader...by participation.

These are the county-wide races sorted by lead with 37,550 counted.

Race	% of Total Reg.	Lead 1 Count	Leader
1033	31.43%	10.24%	No
Port 2	27.50%	9.62%	McCauley
71	31.77%	8.48%	Yes
Co. Cncl 2A	29.97%	7.54%	Mann
Port 1	28.45%	4.42%	Walker
Co. Cncl At-Large	30.19%	4.34%	Knutzen
Co. Cncl 3A	29.76%	4.10%	Weimer
Co. Cncl 1A	29.85%	1.64%	McShane

These are the county-wide races sorted by participation with 37,550 counted.

Race	% of Total Reg.	Lead 1 Count	Leader
71	31.77%	8.48%	Yes
1033	31.43%	10.24%	No
Co. Cncl At-Large	30.19%	4.34%	Knutzen
Co. Cncl 2A	29.97%	7.54%	Mann
Co. Cncl 1A	29.85%	1.64%	McShane
Co. Cncl 3A	29.76%	4.10%	Weimer
Port 1	28.45%	4.42%	Walker
Port 2	27.50%	9.62%	McCauley

PLEASE VOTE!!!!!!

What reason do you have for not voting tomorrow? today?

• Do you think your vote won't count?
• Do you think your vote won't help?
• Do you think you don't understand the issues?
• Do you think politics is too dangerous to involve yourself in?
• Do you think you are too busy?

And what if the answer to all those questions was "YES". Are those still good reasons not to vote? The answer is "NO".  Here's why: Every time you do or don't vote, the disposition of your ballot is recorded in a publicly available database. Here are my general election votes for 2006, 2007, 2008 queried from a recent Whatcom County voter database: 

• Ryan Ferris 06/19/1962 2008GEN Challenged - Too Late 
• Ryan Ferris 06/19/1962 2007GEN Voted by Mail Ballot
• Ryan Ferris 06/19/1962 2006GEN Voted by Mail Ballot

Here's the results of a query that counts all registered voters born the same year as me (1962) who voted in the 2007 and 2008 general elections:

• 2040 CouldHaveVoted2008Born1962.txt
• 1734 Voted2008Born1962.txt
• 2040 CouldHaveVoted2007Born1962.txt 
• 908 Voted2007Born1962.txt

If you vote, even if you send in that secret ballot blank, you still affirm your power as a member of the electorate. You are still someone the body politic has to include in it's decision making calculus. You count. If you vote, you tell the people in power that you will use your vote as needed. This is a surprisingly powerful statement. A turnout as robust as the 2008 general election would tell every politico in Whatcom County that the electoral equation and profile has changed, permanently. It would send a message about the age range and needs of the electorate that could not be ignored. Participation in the vote defines generations and their demands.

So tomorrow(Tuesday November 3, 2009) VOTE!!.
Tell the world that you matter.