- Beltway Snipers, GA, MD, VA 2002
- Blacksburg, VA 2007
- Tucson, AZ 2011
- Aurora , CO 2012
- Newtown, CT 2012
MAKE SURE TO REGISTER YOUR NEW ADDRESS AFTER YOU MOVE! See all your voting information and Ballot Status in WA at www.votewa.gov Same Day Registration is the law in WA now!! Same Day Registration info here!!
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Thursday, December 27, 2012
Spree Killings Part I: Spree vs Murders, Guns vs. Cars, National Causes of Death
Various list of spree killings can be easily found [1,2,3,4]. For purposes of this series of blogs, I will consider five incidents:
Before I look at these incidents, some background information is in order. The American public doesn't spend a lot of time publicly discussing mortality rates and personal risk and yet these are statistics worth trying to get a handle on. Here are a couple of graphics that could indicate that murder is down in America but spree killings are increasing. One chart is from Google public data , the other from an American Progress article:
Monday, December 24, 2012
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Sandy Hook massacre: Official story spins out of control -- Puppet Masters -- Sott.net
Sandy Hook massacre: Official story spins out of control -- Puppet Masters -- Sott.net: http://www.sott.net/article/254873-Sandy-Hook-massacre-Official-story-spins-out-of-control
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Another spree killing...
Another spree killing....How many this year? this decade? This one seems to ask us to believe mostly atrocious press reports that assume a 20 year old Asperger's sufferer (with no apparent violent history or small arms training) loaded his mother's weapons (after killing her) and filed hundreds of destructive rounds into children and adults before killing himself; succeeding in taking the lives of 27 innocents plus himself! I am going to check whatever small amount is left of my trust in what I read at the door for now. Actually, I am going to lock that sense of trust under a big fat lock and key for quite awhile. Maybe for a long time.
The press reporting (with certain exceptions) has been awful here and the national response has resulted in a a kind of internet collectivized paparazzi-amateur-sleuth-'troll till I die' pseudo-journalism that initially fingered the suspected killer's older brother! Decidedly not one of the world wide web's finest moments. Among all the reports, I found the first responder broadcasts the most informative. Radioreference.com material has been uploaded to the web and the first five minutes are especially provocative. In what appears to be the opening moments of the tragedy, a local policemen appears (to my untrained ears) to chase down two suspects and put at least one in custody:
1:10 "Reports that teachers saw two shadows running past the building, past the gym which would be in the rear...they are shooting."
1:23 "Yea, we got `em. They`re coming at me down Kirk's (sp?) way! Coming up the driveway on the left side!"
1:36 "We got `em"
1:42 "...Last known gun shots were in the front of the building."
1:50 "I got them proned (sp?) out!"
2:08 "Last known shots were were in the front...maybe the roof..."
2:40 "To the party in custody..."
2:38 "He's in the driveway...between the [inaudible]"
3:45 "One suspect down...
3:47 "Where?"
3:51 "Probably to the left."
4:23 "Be advised we have multiple weapons including one rifle and shotgun."
Whether the current nationally appointed suspect, one Adam Lanza, is actually guilty of his crimes may be difficult to determine. Not only did he supposedly kill himself, he murdered his victims thoroughly with multiple shots and destructive ammunition. Actually it appears (at least for now) that he fatally shot almost anyone that could possibly have seen or identified him! For now, there appears to be only one possible (injured) witness to the shootings. Pardon my cynicism if I point out that there are some very skilled and highly trained teams of assassins and special forces who possess exactly the same type of prowess and foresight.
I'm not trying to seem bitter and cynical. I am father of small children myself. This event is atrocious and incomprehensible to almost all of us. And that's precisely my point. There have been far too many spree killings in America that seem to fit exactly this pattern: allegedly mentally ill young 20 somethings, an almost improbable amount of multiple deaths (sometimes of political figures), with the perpetrators themselves having little previous violent history. I'm checking my tendency to believe whatever police spokesperson, pro-gun, anti-gun, morally presumptuous psycho-rabble spew reaches my ears on the subject of spree killings. Something is very wrong here. That something is worth thinking about deeply.
Friday, December 14, 2012
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Friday, December 7, 2012
Christmas Events Today and Tonight in Bellingham.
Lots of Christmas Events Today and Tonight in Bellingham.
Here are some:
Here are some:
- The art walk is tonight.
- The Tree lighting ceremony with Mayor Kelli Linville
- Whatcom Museum has an evening of art and poetry planned.
- Whatcom Peace and Justice Center has a grand opening (new location) @ 1220 Bay Street
- The Port Festival kicks off tonight with Bellingham Yacht Club's The Lighted Boat Parade. The Port will have Christmas and musical events starting at Noon.
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Christmas Cookie By Isabel Ferris |
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
Book Sale: "Friends of the Bellingham Library"
The Friends of the Bellingham Library are hosting their annual December Book Sale: Almost all books @ $1 per book. The place was packed at opening. They were thousands of used books on display for sale and more in boxes in a closet waiting to replace them. I picked up my usual assortment of science, math, logic and children's book and a darn nice zippered purple tote bag ($7). Here'a a snap of the front of the tote:
While I was there, I noticed a clean cut young man with a scanning device on the top of a phone checking the bar codes on the books in the science and math section. He would scan a book, look at his device, and either keep the book or keep going. A volunteer described to me how Canadian book sellers will come down and scan books to see if they have a competitive price for online sales. (Almost all books today retailed for $1 or less.)
I have to admit, that this is a probably a brilliant way to make a living and contribute to our library. But in doing so, booksellers are also profiting from volunteer donations some of which are overstock from our public library and many of which have been donated by Village Books. What should happen next is that the Friends should receive some help to work the same type of racket: retailing the best books online for which they can generate a significant profit for our library. This could be done on a continuing basis, since the Friends are always receiving donations of books. It is probably a shame that we need non-profits to support our libraries and schools, but that's standard practice in almost every community in America now. Canadians are propping up everything else in our county these days, including store retail, gasoline, hotel, grocery chain sales, hair stylists, restaurants, coffee houses and probably our new Regal Crown 16 movie theater which has it's grand opening next week. Might as well have the Canadians help save our libraries as well I suppose.
The Bellingham Friends Book Sale : get their early and often for the next few days...
While I was there, I noticed a clean cut young man with a scanning device on the top of a phone checking the bar codes on the books in the science and math section. He would scan a book, look at his device, and either keep the book or keep going. A volunteer described to me how Canadian book sellers will come down and scan books to see if they have a competitive price for online sales. (Almost all books today retailed for $1 or less.)
I have to admit, that this is a probably a brilliant way to make a living and contribute to our library. But in doing so, booksellers are also profiting from volunteer donations some of which are overstock from our public library and many of which have been donated by Village Books. What should happen next is that the Friends should receive some help to work the same type of racket: retailing the best books online for which they can generate a significant profit for our library. This could be done on a continuing basis, since the Friends are always receiving donations of books. It is probably a shame that we need non-profits to support our libraries and schools, but that's standard practice in almost every community in America now. Canadians are propping up everything else in our county these days, including store retail, gasoline, hotel, grocery chain sales, hair stylists, restaurants, coffee houses and probably our new Regal Crown 16 movie theater which has it's grand opening next week. Might as well have the Canadians help save our libraries as well I suppose.
The Bellingham Friends Book Sale : get their early and often for the next few days...
Monday, December 3, 2012
Building a Jail in Whatcom County: Part I
via chartsbin.com Prison Population Rates per 100,00. The United States leads the World.
There will be a presentation on the new jail siting Tuesday, December 4th at Whatcom county council chambers. The council meeting starts at 7:00 PM. Kudos to the indefatigable Riley Sweeney for keeping us in the loop on this issue during the Christmas Season. See Riley's provocative posts here and here. If you are attending or concerned, I found the 02.03.2011 minutes of a packed public meeting a very good read. Jean Melious discusses jail siting impacts and that meeting here. There are also interesting 9/15/2011 Whatcom County Jail Planning Task Force minutes here. Here is the Whatcom County Jail Siting Index. Here is the Whacom County Sheriff and Jail Budget for 2013 and 2014. Here is 'Sheriff Bill Elfo's blog' and his recent budget presentation to the County Council. And here is a partial list of a bunch of really scary articles on the growth in our prison population and its service by private corporations:
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States
- http://seekingalpha.com/article/157536-private-prisons-a-reliable-american-growth-industry
- http://monthlyreview.org/2009/06/01/the-penal-state-in-an-age-of-crisis
- http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/glance/corr2.cfm
- http://www.justicepolicy.org/images/upload/00-05_rep_punishingdecade_ac.pdf
Here are some really scary wikipedia (wikifile) charts:
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._incarceration_rates_1925_onwards.png
- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:US_incarceration_timeline-clean-fixed-timescale.svg
Amazon Books 'peak inside' at Marc Mauer's "Race to Incarcerate"
Clearly, at the current increasing rates of incarceration in America, the best reason for attending a meeting on jail or prison planning is that someday each of us is likely to spend some time incarcerated. I don't have much to say about all of this. I know Sheriff Bill Elfo. He is a really competent and approachable public servant. I would be surprised if he wasn't doing his absolute best to bring safety and justice to Whatcom County. On the other hand, I find that living in a society where financial interests like "Seeking Alpha" discuss prison building as a recession proof and reliable American growth industry terrifying.
My father died last Christmas. He was a high school American history teacher of no small charisma. I have been remembering his analogies and speeches from week to week as I wander through this world without him. My father loved to demonstrate the polarities of human nature by discussing Athens and Sparta. My guess is half of what he told me has been historically repudiated by someone. But here is what my Dad used to say: "We have two choices in life. We can live openly and honestly with respect for the opinions of others, the arts, music, and our own creativity. In this case, we will be Athenian in our lifestyle: willing to grant each other the respect it takes to build a working, creative, democracy. Or we can live like Spartans: lives of strict self-denial and discipline. No ecstatic victories of intellectual achievement, just slave-taking for our conquests. Eventually, through such a path, we will take on so many slaves and incur so much hatred that we will have to spend more and more resources to control those we have enslaved and protect ourselves. And then we will be neither happy nor free."
No matter how inaccurate my father's historical moral analogy might have been, his thoughts are worth thinking about when we consider American incarceration rates today and their costs to all of us.
Saturday, December 1, 2012
The Xmas Season is in full swing in Bellingham, WA
Christmas Trees at Leopolds, Santa Sleigh at The Village Inn, Lunch at Magdalenas, a packed Village Books. We've got two eight year olds and a toddler in tow and life is very good...
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Fwd: Make Your GPT Coal Port Scoping Comment Tomorrow at Ferndale Meeting
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Monday, November 26, 2012
The Aftermath (Part VII): How Many Voted in WA Counties?
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Left: Total Votes: Top Five Counties in WA 2012 General Election Right: Total Votes: King County + Second Five Counties in WA 2012 General Election |
Preface
I've documented the Powershell 3.0 code for this data. Real data analysts are most probably using other technology. But PS 3.0 will do for the points I want to make today. In addition, a Ph.D in data mining is not required to use Powershell to analyze your local election or PDC data. Powershell 3.0 and .NET 4.5 come as updates to Windows 7 and they are standard with Windows 8. This post counts as pretty 'wonky'. There a lots of numbers and synthetic ratios in this post and (gasp!!) links to code, but I did my best to keep this post interesting. After all, I intend this post to be for those activists who value the vote and want to increase their community's electoral participation. Comment below or email me any errors. Click on the images to enlarge.The Data Analysts are Magicians after all
In a networked world whose internal clocks are all manned by financial analysts, programmers, hackers, scientists, mathematicians and statisticians; the 'data analyst' is now the acknowledged Merlin of our time. In a series of recent articles, Mother Jones lays out how the Obama campaign tech staff overwhelmed the Romney/Ryan money machine with intelligence. In reality, I think most of America simply wasn't going to put another stupid white man in power. However, there was more to this election than national sentiment.CVAP is the Citizen Voting Age Population. This is an important Census measurement used for the apportionment of government funding and also used by voting analysts to understand population dynamics. In this case, I am using CVAP County based data to assess WA top ten counties as ranked by total ballots for election of 2012. It is important to note that the CVAP numbers are from 2010 ACS (American Community Survey) and the 11/21 voting totals are still not quite complete or certified. But this is typical of population and voter registration data. Both are always a moving targets with real-time numbers difficult to come by.
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Friday, November 23, 2012
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
The Aftemath (Part VI): Why the Democrats could win WA 42nd LD
11.19.2012: Where Whatcom County stands with 3500 (probably contested) votes to count:
Last updated on 11/19/2012 11:05 AM
The remaining ballots are probably not just 'spoiled'. They are probably 'contested' over missing signatures, tardiness, dead voters, etc. If they are all counted, then Whatcom County hits 84% 'turnout':
[float]((101632+3500)/125485)*100 = 83.78
The chart below proves the Democrats can win in the 120 42nd LD precincts. Natalie McClendon, Matt Krogh, and Jay Inslee will not. Barck Obama/Joe Biden and Maria Cantwell have precinct totals that show another north county than the one where McClendon, Krogh, and Inslee lost. They show a 42nd LD that will carry the Democrats to victory if fully engaged. Votes on the left side of the 0 axis are Republican. Converse for the Democrats. Each bar represents the vote difference between one of the WA 42 LD precincts. I have drawn a red line from the 'zero points' (even precinct vote totals) from McClendon [1] (crossing Inslee,Obama/Biden) to Cantwell. I will wait for the certification tallies and a new voter list to dig into the precinct totals. I want to see how much this phenomenon holds up in precincts across the state. Click to enlarge:
[1] Krogh and McClendon have closely parallel precinct totals.
Last updated on 11/19/2012 11:05 AM
Number of Precincts | 178 |
Number of Registered Voters | 125,485 |
Total Ballots Counted | 101,632 |
Estimated Ballots Left to Count | 3,500 |
Next Ballot Count On | 11/21/2012 4:30 PM |
Last Tabulated | 11/19/2012 11:05 AM |
Voter Turnout | 80.99% |
Certification Date | 11/27/2012 |
Export Results | CSV · XML |
[float]((101632+3500)/125485)*100 = 83.78
The chart below proves the Democrats can win in the 120 42nd LD precincts. Natalie McClendon, Matt Krogh, and Jay Inslee will not. Barck Obama/Joe Biden and Maria Cantwell have precinct totals that show another north county than the one where McClendon, Krogh, and Inslee lost. They show a 42nd LD that will carry the Democrats to victory if fully engaged. Votes on the left side of the 0 axis are Republican. Converse for the Democrats. Each bar represents the vote difference between one of the WA 42 LD precincts. I have drawn a red line from the 'zero points' (even precinct vote totals) from McClendon [1] (crossing Inslee,Obama/Biden) to Cantwell. I will wait for the certification tallies and a new voter list to dig into the precinct totals. I want to see how much this phenomenon holds up in precincts across the state. Click to enlarge:
[1] Krogh and McClendon have closely parallel precinct totals.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Monday, November 19, 2012
The Aftermath (Part V): How do we count the vote faster?
[From a comment I made at the politics blog of the Bellingham Herald ]
There could be lots of legislation proposed that would make the ballot and the chain of custody, etc. more secure and more easily counted or encourage greater and more accurate ballot participation. But at least in Whatcom County, I'm convinced that trying to speed up the process would probably just result in inaccurate counts and disenfranchised voters. Inside a flawed HAVA driven process, I truly think our Auditor's office makes a very strong effort to count all the votes in a fair and honest fashion. The problem for us is "small county" mentality and "small county" resources with "big county" participation. We've got 125.5K registered out of a max of 208K population. Over 105K cast their ballots, so half the residents of this county voted. Exclude those under 18, felons, and others unable to vote and you have a result that means that most adults in this county who can possibly vote did so.
At these vote numbers, with this high level of public participation in Whatcom County, we end up (in this election) with 10% of the ballots needing "duplication". This essentially means the Sequoia 400c Optech scanner couldn't discern intent on at least one vote, therefore a 'bi-partisan' committee has to decide voter intent for that ballot. This is a problem at 105K ballots - 10,500 ballots or more probably needed to be hand counted (and judged) and duplicated which costs us dollars and time. Probably election costs will near $500K for this cycle.
An education program would help with this. The auditor's office should be given print space in the Herald, Whatcom Watch, Cascadia Weekly, etc. and/or perhaps the County should fund video productions in which the Auditor herself personally walks the user through marking ALL of the ballot cleanly and accurately. They could produce such public service announcements that describe the vote counting process and the pitfalls of not marking your ballot so that it is machine readable and run them on BTV10. For example, how to avoid an undervote or overvote, how to keep your ballot clean, how to print out some type of electronic draft ballot so that you don't create a mistake on your voting, how to request a new ballot if you manage to 'spoil' your first try.
The cynical will say the user is at fault. That those who can't fill out their ballot correctly shouldn't be counted. But this type of logic (besides being inhumane), neglects the flaws in the process of a complicated and lengthy ballot and disadvantaged citizenry. In software engineering, we are all very familiar with the criticality of user interactions. We create user interfaces to allow a product to be easily understood and accessed and the software industry spend millions each year doing so. Still, people make thousands training others on software products each of which comes with extensive documentation, context sensitive help, etc.
There really are different types of 'users' with different needs : 'Power users', occasional users, disabled users: all with different profiles for literacy, hand eye co-ordination, eyesight, patience, functionality needs etc. The needs and profiles of election ballot users are not really much different. If you think 'duplicating' 10% of the ballot is a problem now, imagine Whatcom County at one million votes sometime in the near future.
If you want a process to encourage as many people to vote as possible, you have to design the architecture of that process from a systems perspective to handle that level of participation with less defects. For example, what was the reason so many ballots needed to be duplicated? What are the specific categories of overvotes and undervotes? Please categorize all spoiled ballots and address the engineering processes necessary to create a 'cleaner' (e.g. more defect free) vote. At least in Whatcom county, such analysis and (perhaps) subsequent user training might speed up the process of counting the vote.
There could be lots of legislation proposed that would make the ballot and the chain of custody, etc. more secure and more easily counted or encourage greater and more accurate ballot participation. But at least in Whatcom County, I'm convinced that trying to speed up the process would probably just result in inaccurate counts and disenfranchised voters. Inside a flawed HAVA driven process, I truly think our Auditor's office makes a very strong effort to count all the votes in a fair and honest fashion. The problem for us is "small county" mentality and "small county" resources with "big county" participation. We've got 125.5K registered out of a max of 208K population. Over 105K cast their ballots, so half the residents of this county voted. Exclude those under 18, felons, and others unable to vote and you have a result that means that most adults in this county who can possibly vote did so.
At these vote numbers, with this high level of public participation in Whatcom County, we end up (in this election) with 10% of the ballots needing "duplication". This essentially means the Sequoia 400c Optech scanner couldn't discern intent on at least one vote, therefore a 'bi-partisan' committee has to decide voter intent for that ballot. This is a problem at 105K ballots - 10,500 ballots or more probably needed to be hand counted (and judged) and duplicated which costs us dollars and time. Probably election costs will near $500K for this cycle.
An education program would help with this. The auditor's office should be given print space in the Herald, Whatcom Watch, Cascadia Weekly, etc. and/or perhaps the County should fund video productions in which the Auditor herself personally walks the user through marking ALL of the ballot cleanly and accurately. They could produce such public service announcements that describe the vote counting process and the pitfalls of not marking your ballot so that it is machine readable and run them on BTV10. For example, how to avoid an undervote or overvote, how to keep your ballot clean, how to print out some type of electronic draft ballot so that you don't create a mistake on your voting, how to request a new ballot if you manage to 'spoil' your first try.
The cynical will say the user is at fault. That those who can't fill out their ballot correctly shouldn't be counted. But this type of logic (besides being inhumane), neglects the flaws in the process of a complicated and lengthy ballot and disadvantaged citizenry. In software engineering, we are all very familiar with the criticality of user interactions. We create user interfaces to allow a product to be easily understood and accessed and the software industry spend millions each year doing so. Still, people make thousands training others on software products each of which comes with extensive documentation, context sensitive help, etc.
There really are different types of 'users' with different needs : 'Power users', occasional users, disabled users: all with different profiles for literacy, hand eye co-ordination, eyesight, patience, functionality needs etc. The needs and profiles of election ballot users are not really much different. If you think 'duplicating' 10% of the ballot is a problem now, imagine Whatcom County at one million votes sometime in the near future.
If you want a process to encourage as many people to vote as possible, you have to design the architecture of that process from a systems perspective to handle that level of participation with less defects. For example, what was the reason so many ballots needed to be duplicated? What are the specific categories of overvotes and undervotes? Please categorize all spoiled ballots and address the engineering processes necessary to create a 'cleaner' (e.g. more defect free) vote. At least in Whatcom county, such analysis and (perhaps) subsequent user training might speed up the process of counting the vote.
Saturday, November 17, 2012
The Aftermath (Part IV): But for the Grace of God and Democrats...
$PDC01 | ? {$_.Contributor -eq "REPUBLICAN GOVERNORS ASSOC."}).amount | measure-object -sum -average -max -min
Count : 87
Average : 1084597.70
Sum : 94360000
Maximum : 4000000
Minimum : 10000
The WA governors vote will be total more than 3 million votes. So if the RGA pumped all $94M into defeating Democrat Jay Inslee ( I have to doubt that somehow) than each of us was potentially worth: 3M/94M=$31.30 per vote. Since Whatcom County (see map below) was one of the eight counties that helped put Jay over the top, I want my fair share!
I would like to make some comment on how little $$$ matter in free and fair Democratic elections. But the probable truth is that they are just going to spend more next time. As per usual, click on the graphics to enlarge.
From http://vote.wa.gov/results/20121106/Governor_ByCounty.html |
Friday, November 16, 2012
Occupy Bellingham meets tonight to "Expose the Secret World of ALEC"
Some of you have read my post "The Corporate Imperium" which describes contributions from ALEC members to WA 42nd LD legislators Jason Overstreet and Vincent Buys for the 2012 elections cycle. Occupy Bellingham will meet tonight at WECU Educational Center, 511 E. Holly at 6:30 PM to "Expose the Secret World of ALEC" . Sourcewatch has extensive documentation on ALEC, including a list of ALEC politicians in WA. There, Sourcewatch names 42 LD Senator Doug Ericksen. ALEC's site also lists Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (WA 5th Congressional District) and Doc Hastings (WA 4th Congressional District) as "Alumni members".
[From Occupy Bellingham]
[From Occupy Bellingham]
The United States of ALEC
Expose the Secret World of ALEC
(American Legislative Exchange Council)
ALEC is a partnership of corporations working with state legislators to:
- Restrict access to health care,
- Turn public schools and prisons into profit centers,
- Eviscerate clean air and clean water laws,
- Make election laws that threaten to deprive millions of Americans of the right to vote.
AGENDA:
- We will watch the one hour Bill Moyers documentary : “The United States of ALEC”
- Followed by a lively discussion THEN
Find out what you can do
Friday, November 16th
at WECU Educational Center, 511 E. Holly
from 6:30 – 8:30
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
In Whatcom County,at least 50% of us voted this year
So as of last night, nearly 105K ballots have been received. If they are all counted, that would mean that about 84% of Whatcom County's 125.5K registered voters did exactly that:
104785/125485=0.835040044626848
That percentage will probably be good enough to land us in the top five of all WA counties for turnout in an election that currently has a 75% state wide turnout with 179K worth of ballots still left to count. Whatcom Couny's population is supposedly 203,633 as of 2011. But some documents have our 2012 population projected at 208K. Still, that would mean that slightly over fifty percent of the population voted this year:
105K/208K=50%
And that's a pretty big number. At any cocktail party or beer garden, odds are more likely than not that the adult standing or sitting next you voted. That's probably worth remembering the next time you share a couple pints of imperial or oatmeal stout with some strangers at Boundary Bay!
104785/125485=0.835040044626848
That percentage will probably be good enough to land us in the top five of all WA counties for turnout in an election that currently has a 75% state wide turnout with 179K worth of ballots still left to count. Whatcom Couny's population is supposedly 203,633 as of 2011. But some documents have our 2012 population projected at 208K. Still, that would mean that slightly over fifty percent of the population voted this year:
105K/208K=50%
And that's a pretty big number. At any cocktail party or beer garden, odds are more likely than not that the adult standing or sitting next you voted. That's probably worth remembering the next time you share a couple pints of imperial or oatmeal stout with some strangers at Boundary Bay!
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
The Aftermath (Part III): 42nd LD voters for both Cantwell and Overstreet?
In between feeding kids, cleaning house, and raking leaves this weekend, I've been making my Powershell 3.0 prompt zing. Charts pictured far below are:
As of the latest count (11.10.2012: 92.5K counted, at least 9.5K left to count), Republicans Jason Overstreet and Vincent Buys have been creaming their Democrat opponents by 5,540 and 5,192 vote margins respectively in WA 42nd LD:
Jason Overstreet Natalie McClendon
31903 26363
Vincent Buys Matthew Krogh
31691 26499
But curiously, Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell is leading her Republican candidate in those same 120 42nd LD precincts by 3,716 votes. Below is what that looks like in Powershell 3.0. Senator Cantwell even has a higher average per precinct return than candidate Baumgartner for 42nd LD precincts:
- McClendon vs. Overstreet 42nd LD (1) only
- Cantwell vs. Baumgartner 42nd LD precincts only
- Cantwell vs. Baumgartner All of Whatcom county (e.g. 40th and 42nd inclusive).
- McClendon vs. Overstreet for the 100s and 200s 42nd LD precincts
As of the latest count (11.10.2012: 92.5K counted, at least 9.5K left to count), Republicans Jason Overstreet and Vincent Buys have been creaming their Democrat opponents by 5,540 and 5,192 vote margins respectively in WA 42nd LD:
Jason Overstreet Natalie McClendon
31903 26363
Vincent Buys Matthew Krogh
31691 26499
But curiously, Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell is leading her Republican candidate in those same 120 42nd LD precincts by 3,716 votes. Below is what that looks like in Powershell 3.0. Senator Cantwell even has a higher average per precinct return than candidate Baumgartner for 42nd LD precincts:
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Jail Site selection by Riley Sweeney
Riley Sweeney digs deep on the jail building process in Whatcom County:
http://sweeneypolitics.com/2012/11/10/the-public-locked-out-of-jail-site-selection-process/
Friday, November 9, 2012
The Aftermath (Part II):Ballot fatigue? Local Candidates? Coattails not long enough?
An update to this post for 11/09/2012 (fourth count) is far below. I should mention that I am simply counting votes in 121 precincts that voted for 42 LD #1 #2 candidates when I frame the all county candidates (Inslee, Obama, Cantwell) in comparison. If the 42 LD runs right through precincts instead of using them whole as borders....you get the picture.
# Begin original post
As of the count for 11/08/2012 (third count):
In the charts below, the right of the 0 on the X axis is the difference by which the Democrats won that 42nd precinct vote. To the left of the 0 is the converse for the Republican challenger . In other words, this how the Democrats are fairing for 42nd precincts only. On top row, McClendon and Krogh are getting hammered in the 42nd with at least 25K votes still left to count as of last night. On the bottom row, Inslee gets similarly hammered, Obama/Biden a little less so, and Maria Cantwell comes out ahead (?) in the 42nd precincts! Countywide turnouts for the candidates (left out the minor candidates) in the three bottom row races are roughly equal to date:
The 42nd only turnouts are less (of course) but still roughly equal:
Is it ballot fatigue? Or were Obama and Cantwell's coattails just not enough for Inslee and the 42nd candidates? Or is something not quite right with this vote?
# Begin original post
As of the count for 11/08/2012 (third count):
In the charts below, the right of the 0 on the X axis is the difference by which the Democrats won that 42nd precinct vote. To the left of the 0 is the converse for the Republican challenger . In other words, this how the Democrats are fairing for 42nd precincts only. On top row, McClendon and Krogh are getting hammered in the 42nd with at least 25K votes still left to count as of last night. On the bottom row, Inslee gets similarly hammered, Obama/Biden a little less so, and Maria Cantwell comes out ahead (?) in the 42nd precincts! Countywide turnouts for the candidates (left out the minor candidates) in the three bottom row races are roughly equal to date:
Obama/Romney | 75652 |
Cantwell/Baumgarten | 76365 |
Inslee/McKenna | 76481 |
The 42nd only turnouts are less (of course) but still roughly equal:
McClendon/Overstreet | 49998 |
Krogh/Buys | 49913 |
Is it ballot fatigue? Or were Obama and Cantwell's coattails just not enough for Inslee and the 42nd candidates? Or is something not quite right with this vote?
Thursday, November 8, 2012
The Aftermath (Part I): What Krogh and McClendon (Democrats) are up against in the 42nd
Below are some graphs I knocked together tonight to show what Matt Krogh and Natalie McClendon are up against in the 42nd WA District legislative district. Precinct data is far below after the break. Essentially, in many the Bellingham precincts (200s), Krogh and McClendon have overwhelming support. But the County precincts (especially the 600s and most of the 100s) are just too strong for Overstreet and Buys to be overcome, at least at current vote counts. What would be useful are comparisons to Cantwell, Inslee, Obama results for the same precincts.
Countywide 69K votes have been counted. There are 25K in the Auditor's hopper. My feeling is that we will see a turnout of 107K (out of 125K registered - 85%) for the county as a whole by the end of the week. About 44K have voted in the 42nd district as of tonight. The core Bellingham precincts are populous. It will be interesting to see if increased turnout rates will change the race outcome. Right now, it simply doesn't look good for Natalie and Matt.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
How to mark your ballot so a Sequoia Optech 400C Voting Machine understands your intent!!
Examine the portions I have circled in red of this photograph of the center of my 2012 Whatcom County Ballot:
This issue, which I wrote about at length in 2010, is the electronic equivalent of "the hanging chad". I still maintain that front and reverse sides of a ballot should never overlap voting choice arrows such that an errant or too heavy press for a voter choice on one side could possibly be read as a separate choice for the flip side. You can see in detail below how closely aligned this ballot practice makes the voter choice on one side with the arrows on the flip side. In my case, they are the choice for governor aligned with Initiative 1185.
In theory, a Sequoia 400C Voting Machine [1],[2] should be able to distinguish marks on one side from the other: provided you use a ball point pen, press just hard enough, and send a single line between the middle of the arrows. I'm sure the auditor's election office will accuse of creating hysteria. But listen, my advice is mark that ballot carefully. Maybe with a ruler. And don't spill any food, blood, or nail polish on it. It will invalidate your ballot, the Sequoia Optech 400c will spit it out, and then it goes to a committee where they attempt to infer your 'intent'. Make your intent clear from the start.
This issue, which I wrote about at length in 2010, is the electronic equivalent of "the hanging chad". I still maintain that front and reverse sides of a ballot should never overlap voting choice arrows such that an errant or too heavy press for a voter choice on one side could possibly be read as a separate choice for the flip side. You can see in detail below how closely aligned this ballot practice makes the voter choice on one side with the arrows on the flip side. In my case, they are the choice for governor aligned with Initiative 1185.
In theory, a Sequoia 400C Voting Machine [1],[2] should be able to distinguish marks on one side from the other: provided you use a ball point pen, press just hard enough, and send a single line between the middle of the arrows. I'm sure the auditor's election office will accuse of creating hysteria. But listen, my advice is mark that ballot carefully. Maybe with a ruler. And don't spill any food, blood, or nail polish on it. It will invalidate your ballot, the Sequoia Optech 400c will spit it out, and then it goes to a committee where they attempt to infer your 'intent'. Make your intent clear from the start.
Election Day: Romney Conspiracy Theory
They say that Romney is running advertisements against Obama based on the pro Obama endorsements of Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro. But what do President Chavez and El Commandante know that we don't. After all, why would those two risk controversial endorsements unless:
(1) they actually want Romney to win or
(2) both are really frightened that Romney just might win
Unfortunately, option 2 seems more likely to me. Below is an admittedly controversial 'conspiracy theory' video I watched last night. Whatever truth there is in it, it did suddenly occur to me that Romney as a candidate is a type of 'grey cardinal'. We really have no idea who he is, why he won't release his tax returns, or why he has so much respect for the Bush family and Dick Cheney.
(1) they actually want Romney to win or
(2) both are really frightened that Romney just might win
Unfortunately, option 2 seems more likely to me. Below is an admittedly controversial 'conspiracy theory' video I watched last night. Whatever truth there is in it, it did suddenly occur to me that Romney as a candidate is a type of 'grey cardinal'. We really have no idea who he is, why he won't release his tax returns, or why he has so much respect for the Bush family and Dick Cheney.
Election Day: The Whatcom Democrats Recommendations
Election Day: The Whatcom Democrats Recommendations
2012 Endorsed Candidates And Initiatives
Jurisdiction | Office | Candidate(s) | Democratic status | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
State Initiative | 2/3 voting requirements | I-1185 | Vote NO | ||
State Initiative | Public funds for charter schools | I-1240 | Vote NO | ||
State Referendum | Marriage Equality | R-74 | Vote Approve | ||
State Initiative | Marijuana Reform | I-502 | Vote YES | ||
Amendment | Lower State Debt Limit | Senate Joint Resolution 8221 | REJECTED | ||
Amendment | Investing University Funds | Senate Joint Resolution 8223 | REJECTED | ||
Advisory | Close Bank Tax Credit Loophole | Advisory Vote No. 1 | MAINTAINED | ||
Advisory | Extend Petroleum Tax | Advisory Vote No. 2 | MAINTAINED | ||
Port of Bellingham | Expand Port Commissioners to 5 | Proposition No. 1 | YES | ||
Federal | President | Barack Obama | Endorsed | ||
Federal | U.S. Senate | Maria Cantwell | Endorsed | ||
Federal | U.S. House of Representatives, District 2 | Rick Larsen | Endorsed | ||
Federal | U.S. House of Representatives, District 1 | Suzan DelBene | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | Governor | Jay Inslee | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | Lt. Governor | Brad Owen | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | Secretary of State | Kathleen Drew | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | State Treasurer | Jim McIntire | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | State Auditor | Troy Kelley | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | Attorney General | Bob Ferguson | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | Commissioner of Public Lands | Peter Goldmark | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | Insurance Commissioner | Mike Kreidler | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | 40th Legislative District Senator | Kevin Ranker | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | 40th Legislative District Representative | Kris Lytton | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | 40th Legislative District Representative | Jeff Morris | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | 42nd Legislative District Representative | Natalie McClendon | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | 42nd Legislative District Representative | Matt Krogh | Endorsed | ||
Whatcom County | Public Utility District, District 2 | Brad Stone | Endorsed | ||
State of WA | Supreme Court Position 9 | Cheryl Gordon McCloud | Endorsed | ||
Whatcom County | Superior Court Judge, Position 2 | Deborra Garrett | Endorsed | ||
City of Bellingham | Low-Income Housing Levy | Prop 1 | Vote YES |