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From left to right: Last Year Voted Percentages from the 2018 WA VRDB for 2018, 2016, and NULL (e.g. Never Voted) |
MAKE SURE TO REGISTER YOUR NEW ADDRESS AFTER YOU MOVE! See all your voting information and Ballot Status in WA at www.votewa.gov Same Day Registration is the law in WA now!! Same Day Registration info here!!
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Sunday, December 30, 2018
Last Year and Last Election Voted Percentages
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Age and Turnout in WA GE 2018
Summary
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Whatcom County had 77% turnout of registered voters which was 5% points higher than the state average. Whatcom County also had higher turnout for Millennial and GenX age bins. Left axis is votes, bottom axis represents age bins, top and right axis represents turnout percentage per age bin as delineated by the blue line. For all of WA State, see charts below the break. Click to enlarge the charts. |
Thursday, December 6, 2018
Posteriors: That 42nd LD Race
But this year, one narrow (981 votes) victory for Sharon Shoemake sends a lonely Whatcom Democrat to Olympia matched with Republicans Doug Ericksen and Luanne VanWerven. The Ericksen(R)/Vargas(D) contested State Senate seat which was lost by 46 votes is particularly poignant. All the more so since Pos. 2 winner Sharon Shewmake(D) had aggregated contributions and independent expenditures that were only 30% of the same for losing Senate candidate Pinky Vargas(D). Campaign expenditures were a comparatively minimal $48K for the losing Pos. 1 candidate Justin Boneau(D). Mr. Boneau lost by only 80 votes to Luanne VanWerven(R):
Friday, November 30, 2018
Recount underway for LD 42nd
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
Tuesday 11/26/2018 Certified Matchbacks for LD 42 and Whatcom County
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
One of these All County races was not like the others...
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Click to enlarge. The all Democrat Erb vs. Richey Prosecutor's race defied red vs blue precinct patterns. |
Monday, November 19, 2018
Monday 11/19/2018 Matchbacks for LD 42 and Whatcom County
I list the signature issues remaining in LD 42 by precinct 'series' and by precinct 'decade' + residence city below the break. This post will require a wide screen.
Sunday, November 18, 2018
GE 2018 Results: The 163x Initiative Measures
- 1639 Gun Control
- 1634 Anti Grocery tax
- 1631 Pro Carbon Tax
Liberal vs. Conservative samples |
Friday, November 16, 2018
Friday 11/16/2018 Matchbacks for LD 42 and Whatcom County
This is ourselves under pressure
Under pressure
I have heard from third party reports of those who attended the Friday Canvassing Board meeting that the Auditor wants the rest of the challenged ballots in ASAP. This week, Thursday and Friday are the Thanksgiving Holiday. Certification is Tuesday November 27th. Check myvote.wa.gov to make sure your ballot has been accepted for tabulation and/or call Elections and/or talk with your political parties. Additionally, if the Auditor/Elections has sent you any mail or left phone messages, make sure to respond ASAP. Matchback reports below the break.
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
News links for the Great Misdelivered/Undelivered, Three County Ballot Scandal....
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Friday and Tuesday matchbacks for LD42
Sunday, November 11, 2018
Did You Cure Your Challenged Ballot? The Close Vote in the 42nd LD!
Thursday, November 8, 2018
Four Rs and Four Ds in GE2018
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
WA State Projections for CD, LD, County: 11/06/2018
11/06/2018:
1: 1 241150 132194 105033
2: 2 222155 134088 87683
3: 3 238541 100594 124864 #Long(D) vs. Herrera Beutler(R)
4: 4 165799 57961 106644
5: 5 226772 90361 130435 #Brown(D) and McMorris Rodgers(R)
6: 6 221468 117469 99678
7: 7 298565 247066 45399
8: 8 234791 114097 115203 #Schrier(D) and Rossi(R)
9: 9 202915 144438 53457
10: 10 182621 97888 81931
Monday, October 29, 2018
Precinct and County Participation Maps: 11/05/2018
Ballot Statistics as of 11.05.2018 4:00PM show 1.9M ballots returned. This is a fairly blistering state-wide 44.9% turnout rate. However, there is a wide range to county turnout currently stretching from 36.6% to 66.30%. Among counties with voter populations over 50K, Clallam, Whatcom, Island and Spokane county stand out for their turnout. If you have not yet received a ballot, you should call your local Elections office immediately. You should also vote early, check myvote.wa.gov and check "Ballot Status" box after voting. The magic phrase you want to see is "Your ballot has been accepted for tabulation." That means you are good to go!
The Ballot Statistics page is always one morning ahead of the state wide matchback data. Currently, (11.05.2018), we are 0 days from the election. Statewide 1,937,253 good ballots have been returned as of 11.05.2018 4:00 PM. The Ballot Status data is responsible for my projections. I have that data from 11.05.2018 data currently showing about 1,881,846.
Thursday, October 25, 2018
11/06/2018 Matchbacks and Projections GE2018 for WM, SK, IS, SJ
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Click to enlarge the Map. For more on this data please see https://www.bellinghampoliticsandeconomics.com/2018/10/precinct-and-county-participation-maps.html |
The Ballot Statistics page is always one morning ahead of the state wide matchback data. Currently, (11.06.2018), we are 1 day from the election. Statewide 2,305,405 good ballots have been returned as of 11.06.2018. The Ballot Status data is responsible for my projections. I have that data currently showing about 2,234,777.
Monday, October 15, 2018
How GE2018 Could Play out in WM,SK,SJ,IS. Part I: The Districts
In the table below, we can see combined GE 2016 results for Clinton+Stein (CS) or Trump+Johnson (TJ) and Primary 2018 results for MariaCantwell (MC) or SusanHutchison (SH). Skagit 10 (light blue), Whatcom 42-2 (dark blue) and 40th LD (yellow) are critical for Democrat success in the four county area. In reality, only WM 40-2, WM 42-2, SK 40-1 and SJ 40-2 are sure bets for 'blue' in a heavy turnout GE. This makes LD 40 + WM 42-2 (North Bellingham) the liberal anchors in a four county area that could turn red with a stronger Republican turnout. This helps put the "double Mike P." strategy in perspective. Petrish and Peetoom can't really beat Lekanoff and Frazey, but they can help Seguine (R) beat Hazelrigg-Hernandez (D) and also help the 42LD Rs in their customary cruise over the 42LD Ds. No votes can be taken for granted in this year's four county election that mostly pits middle-aged Republican men versus progressive Democratic women. The primary went mostly to the Democrats in Whatcom County. However, turnout is likely to resemble GE 2016 this November due to the new stampless ballot and an unruly, "hyper energized" electorate now chafing at their electoral bits nationwide! Let the balloting begin!
Sunday, September 30, 2018
Election URLs and Links
Saturday, September 29, 2018
Summed Voting histories for the four county area (WM,SK,IS,SJ)
[1] 128303 # Active and Voted
[1] 154465 # Active and Not Voted
I sum the voting histories (per voter) of each of these groups below. Note that the Voted vs. Not Voted charts are approximately 2x in scale. This post will probably need a wide screen.
Thursday, September 27, 2018
Metrics and Charts for Mail-in vs. DropBox by WA County for 2017 and 2018
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Mail-in Totals for Top Ten Counties |
Sunday, September 23, 2018
Charts from 4 County (IS,SK,SJ,WM) Area
- Island
- Skagit
- San Juan
- Whatcom
Monday, September 17, 2018
Ballots have Dropped... Should be in your mailbox soon.
- Online registration / Address Change deadline: Oct 8th # deadline passed
- Ballots Mailed Whatcom County : Oct 17
- Start of 18 day Election Period for WA State: Oct 19
- Election Date : Nov 6
Saturday, September 15, 2018
Advice for PCOs and volunteers seeking data and instructions
- https://www.whatcomdemocrats.org Whatcom Democrats
- http://www.whatcomgop.com Whatcom Republicans
- https://www.wa-democrats.org WA State Democrats
- https://wsrp.org WA State Republicans
http://www.bellinghampoliticsandeconomics.com/2018/06/general-data-advise-for-candidates.html
Unless, you are a data professional, it is probably not a good idea to second guess your party's instructions. If you wish to support your party during the election period, now is a probably good time to commit to that support, seek training, get to know your party, etc. This support usually includes: canvassing precincts, making donations, phone calling, stapling flyers, etc. It is not difficult work, but each party does it with different methodologies and data sources.
My personal advice to volunteers and campaign managers based on my previous experience is as follows:
[For Volunteers:]
Don't do any campaign work you don't feel comfortable with. Your parties have some responsibility to provide you with instructions, materials, training and technology that you need to be productive. However, please remember most party officials are volunteers just like yourself. Apply yourself with flexibility and initiative.
[For Party leaders:]
Try to free your volunteers from the "the internal politics" of the party itself. Make your volunteer assignments simple, straightforward and without litmus tests. Remember that volunteers come in many shapes, sizes, and belief systems. Be clear and easy to understand with your instruction sets.
[The Vast "Purpality"]
There is evidence for both the United States and the state of WA that much of the potential vote is essentially independent and that many precinct residents are quite possibly some shade of purple rather than red or blue. Looking at the results for your precinct and county elections can help you visualize your local neighborhood's place in the blue to red spectrum of our vast "purpality". I try to remember that the largest bloc of voters in the United States for almost all non-presidential election years is not a particular race, gender, party or class. The largest bloc of voters in the United States for any election is almost always those who did not vote! Your job as a campaign volunteer is to convince others to vote for your candidate and perhaps your party. Civility, kindness, grace, and respect are your best tools to complete that mission. Patience and tolerance are your best tools to survive your mission.
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Gender and the Vote in WA
Voter Histories for Primary 2018 are due first week in September and will allow for Primary 2018 to be incorporated into this post. The tables below want a wide screen. Gender is a such a widespread and binary classifier that understanding it's significance in terms of blue/red, young/old, white/POC appears difficult. That women register and vote more than men is an easy insight. Who women vote for in what counties and why they vote is more difficult.
To give a simple example relevant to the 2018 midterms: It is possible that the new stampless ballot could increase conservative votes among women of low motility and busy schedules in red counties. There is some evidence that partisanship of gender is more clearly defined when gender is considered as a function of location, age, religion, race, class, income, party allegiance and education levels. Peering into a wide scale 'binary classifier' like gender and gender's relationship to other electoral co-variants is proving to be more that a weekend's task. The tables below want a wide screen.
Sunday, August 26, 2018
Projecting CD, LD, LCD results for 2018 from 2016 Presidential Results
Wednesday, August 22, 2018
Tables and Charts from the Final Primary 2018 Whatcom County matchback
Monday, August 20, 2018
42nd Primary Data
Saturday, August 18, 2018
Richey vs. Erb in the Whatcom 2018 Primary
Tuesday, August 14, 2018
The effect of the "stampless ballot" in WA State
Thursday, August 9, 2018
Sunday, August 5, 2018
Primary 2018 Matchback Sequences
Update 7:01 PM 8/21/2018
The WC Primary election has been certified. 62,707 "Good Votes" were tabulated, making this the largest primary in the history of Whatcom County. By comparison, GE 2017 had 63,606 "Good Votes" so this primary is comparable in participation to last year's general election. It is suspected by some of us that the "stampless ballot" and a polarized, vitrolic political climate contributed much to this turnout. I suspect we can look for an 85K - 90K turnout for what will be a heavily contested GE 2018 on November 6th. The midterm is currently 77 days from today Tuesday, August 21, 2018. 2,786 ballots were returned "undeliverable". If you didn't receive a ballot this election, you probably forgot to change your address when moved. It is probable you will shortly be made an inactive voter. To remedy this, please use myvote.wa.gov to update your address or call you local election office.
AVReturnStatus N
1: Good 62707
2: Not Voted 73719
3: Challenged 702
4: Void 655
5: Undeliverable 2786 # If you didn't get your ballot: myvote.wa.gov
Unresolved Challenges included:
2: Too Late 438
3: No Signature Match 180
4: No Signature 32
Primary 2018 Returns
Ballot Return Statistics
Saturday, August 4, 2018
Age and the Primary Turnout
There were any number of important reasons to vote in the August 7th Primary, and vote many did. This table is from August 9th Whatcom County matchbacks merged with July's VRDB:
AgeRange Active VotesGood PctGood_AgeRange
1: 17 - 54 80113 24115 30.1
2: 55 - 80 53542 33779 63.1
3: 81 - 106 6721 4483 66.7
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
42nd and "Top 30" WA State LD Contributions and Expenditures through 07/16/2018
For 2018, there have been $10.9M contributions / $3.6M expenditures on all WA LD races to date (07/16/2018). For 2018, there have been $377K contributed / $102K expended on just the 42nd LD Note that LD 42 boasts two Senate candidates (Tim Ballew:$100K, Doug Ericksen:$88K) who are in the "top 30" for state wide legislative contributions to date. 42nd Senate candidate Pinky Vargas has raised a respectable $66K, but is burning through her stash at a faster rate, probably in hopes of making it to the Final.
Monday, July 16, 2018
VRDB and LD counts through July 1st, 2018
Friday, July 13, 2018
Ballots drop July 18th in Whatcom County for the August 7th Primary election
- WA SOS :: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/
- WM Current Election :: http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election
- WM Voter Guide :: https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/myvoteolvr/onlinevotersguide/?countyCode=wm
- WM Voter Pamphlet :: http://www.whatcomcounty.us/DocumentCenter/View/35443/August-7-Primary-Election-Local-Voters-Pamphlet
- WM Sample Ballot :: http://www.whatcomcounty.us/DocumentCenter/View/34834/August-7-2018-Sample-Ballot
- WM Ballot Drop Locations :: http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1863/Ballot-Drop-Box-Locations
- WM Democrats :: https://www.whatcomdemocrats.org
- WM Republicans :: http://www.whatcomgop.com
Wednesday, July 4, 2018
Ryan's Brief List of Sites to Help Prepare Your Mind for the Upcoming Election Season!
Happy July 4th readers! Please read the post below the break for some light summer reading and preemptive electoral deprogramming! This includes my brief list of sites to prepare you as a voter for the thoroughly corrupt, fascist, manipulative, authoritarian, psyops and data driven world we all swim in now! And don't forget to register to vote and/or update your changed address at myvote.wa.gov before Monday July 9th! Doesn't hurt to check even if you haven't moved!
Sunday, July 1, 2018
"2018" CVAP Data and graphs. Part II
This post is under construction. It includes race, CVAP ("Citizen Voting Age Population"), and turnout in WA with ongoing correlation analysis. Click to enlarge graph and tables. For documentation and introduction, please see Part I
Thursday, June 28, 2018
"2018" CVAP Data and graphs. Part I
- CVAP_EST_Total # Citizen Voting Age Population Total per County or LD.
- TOT_EST_Total # Total estimated population per County or LD.
- CVAP_EST_White_Alone # Citizen Voting Age Population for race "White Alone".
- TOT_EST_White_Alone # Total estimated "White Alone" population.
- (CVAP_EST_Total - CVAP_EST_White_Alone) # The remaining CVAP not "White Alone".
- (TOT_EST_Total - TOT_EST_White_Alone) # The remaining population not "White Alone.
t(rbind(County[1],SLDL[1]))
[,1] [,2]
GEONAME "Autauga County, Alabama" "State House District 1 (2016), Alabama"
LNTITLE "Total" "Total"
GEOID "05000US01001" "62000US01001"
LNNUMBER "1" "1"
TOT_EST "55050" "46015"
TOT_MOE NA "1138"
ADU_EST "41195" "36130"
ADU_MOE " 34" "856"
CIT_EST "54510" "45450"
CIT_MOE " 263" "1115"
CVAP_EST "40690" "35660"
CVAP_MOE "236" "851"
LNTITLE covers the following racial/ethnic classifications:
SLDL[,.(LNTITLE=unique(LNTITLE))]
LNTITLE
1: Total
2: Not Hispanic or Latino
3: American Indian or Alaska Native Alone
4: Asian Alone
5: Black or African American Alone
6: Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Alone
7: White Alone
8: American Indian or Alaska Native and White
9: Asian and White
10: Black or African American and White
11: American Indian or Alaska Native and Black or African American
12: Remainder of Two or More Race Responses
13: Hispanic or Latino
For more information, please see technical documentation. Click on charts to enlarge.
Sunday, June 24, 2018
Voting History Matplots : 2014 vs. 2016 (Part II)
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Turnout rates from Voting Histories for the top 10 most populous WA Counties: Blue = 2016, Green = 2014, Red = 2017. Click to enlarge the chart. |
In the last post I looked at voter participation (turnout) volumes from voter histories per county for General Elections 2014 - 2017 or GE 2014 - GE 2017. I now look at the top ten most populous WA counties. Each of these counties has over 100K registered voters in GE 2017. These top ten counties account for 82% of all registered voters in WA in GE 2017. The top five counties account for 66% of all registered voters in WA in GE 2017. But their rates of participation in the various election years show differences pictured above.
Saturday, June 23, 2018
Voting History Matplots : 2014 vs. 2016 (Part I)
Sunday, June 17, 2018
General data advice for candidates
Colllapsible Trees
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These are images of Collapsible Trees of LCDs, RJIs, by LCD, Precincts and Counties. Click to Enlarge. |
See also https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/collapsibleTree/collapsibleTree.pdf
The 'hierarchy' argument defines the tree data in the code below the break.
No warranty for any data is expressed or implied.
Please use at your own risk. Please understand all the laws that govern the use of WA Electoral Data: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/vrdb/vrdbfaq.aspx
Wednesday, June 6, 2018
The Libertarian Challenge in WA State
Top 6 Party Prefers declared during filing week by Count (N):
PartyName N
1: (Prefers Democratic Party) 168
2: (Prefers Republican Party) 144
3: 36
4: (Prefers Independent Party) 19
5: (States No Party Preference) 14
6: (Prefers Libertarian Party) 12
...
See table at bottom for full list.
I dug into the campaign contributions and expenditures this last weekend and found myself captivated the "strength" of the Libertarian movement nationwide and in WA State. Matthew Dubin has multiple $2K donations from out of state 'libertarian supporters'. As of last Friday, he is nearly leading the campaign funding race in LD 36th outspending his opponent incumbent Noel Frame.
...
Sunday, June 3, 2018
PDC Contributions through June 1st
This is PDC data for
2018 campaign contributions until June 1 or the first five months of this year.
We now are five months from the November general elections. I list the top 20 for each query ordered by Contrib (Contribution).
Saturday, June 2, 2018
PDC Expenditures through June 1st
This is PDC data for
2018 campaign expenditures until June 1 or the first five months of this year.
We now are five months from the November general elections. I list the top 20 for each query ordered by
expenditure (Expend).
Thursday, May 24, 2018
2018 Filing week is over... (Part III)
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Click to Enlarge WA Map of LD, CD, Precincts. |
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled?
Download:
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/Elections/Candidates/ExportToExcel?electionYear=0&countyCode=XX # all state
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/Elections/Candidates/ExportToExcel?electionYear=0&countyCode=WM # Whatcom
Some lists with R Code (from data.table library) below the break. Font needs wide screen and probably some zoom.
Tuesday, May 15, 2018
Here Comes Filing Week : Part II
Filing week is upon us. You can
check here:
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled?
# Entire State
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled?countyCode=wm
# Whatcom County
Below the break are tables of GE
2016 Presidential and Legislative votes by County and Legislative District.
A Postgres query like this:
Guy Palumbo | Legislative District 1 - State Senator | 28003 #KI
only
Mindie Wirth | Legislative District 1 - State Senator | 22395 #KI
only
Mindie Wirth | Legislative District 1 State
Senator | 30850 # “Rest of State” not
KI
Guy Palumbo | Legislative District 1 State
Senator | 40758 # “Rest of State” not
KI
can be confusing because it shows
King County ("KI") and Rest of the State ("ROS") in two
separate entries.
Far below, LDs split between KI and
“ROS” are expressed like this as an R (data.table)
query:
LD KI_TRUMP ROS_TRUMP KI_CLINTON ROS_CLINTON Trump Clinton
1 5987 16836
14921 31482 22823 46403
or split between LD ~ County for KI
and “ROS” like this:
LD County KI_TRUMP ROS_TRUMP KI_CLINTON ROS_CLINTON Trump Clinton
1 KI 5987 0
14921 0 5987
14921
1 SN 0
16836 0 31482 16836 31482
Let me know if you have any
questions or find any errors. No warranty for this data is expressed or
implied. Use at your own risk.
-RMF 1:12 PM 5/14/2018