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Tuesday, July 17, 2018

42nd and "Top 30" WA State LD Contributions and Expenditures through 07/16/2018


 For 2018, there have been $10.9M contributions / $3.6M expenditures on all WA LD races to date (07/16/2018). For 2018, there have been $377K contributed / $102K expended on just the 42nd LD Note that LD 42 boasts two Senate candidates (Tim Ballew:$100K, Doug Ericksen:$88K) who are in the "top 30" for state wide legislative contributions to date. 42nd Senate candidate Pinky Vargas has raised a respectable $66K, but is burning through her stash at a faster rate, probably in hopes of making it to the Final.

Monday, July 16, 2018

VRDB and LD counts through July 1st, 2018

All WA LDs: Active Registrants, Max Candidate LD Vote 2016, Trump+Johnson,Clinton+Stein. Click to Enlarge.

The post below the break describes current and historical Legislative District registration levels as of July 1, 2018. Click to enlarge the charts.

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Ryan's Brief List of Sites to Help Prepare Your Mind for the Upcoming Election Season!





IMPORTANT  FOR WA VOTERS : "Deadline for in-person, mail-in & online registrations or address changes" for the August Primary is Monday July 9th!!

Happy July 4th readers!  Please read the post below the break for some light summer reading and preemptive electoral deprogramming! This includes my brief list of sites to prepare you as a voter for the thoroughly corrupt, fascist, manipulative,  authoritarian, psyops and data driven world we all swim in now! And don't forget to register to vote and/or update your changed address at myvote.wa.gov before Monday July 9th! Doesn't hurt to check even if you haven't moved!

Sunday, July 1, 2018

"2018" CVAP Data and graphs. Part II


Adams, Franklin, and Yakima Counties in WA share the distinction of having majority hispanic populations with majority white voting populations. The CVAP estimates for all three counties are dominated by "White Alone" voting populations.  Click on table to enlarge.  Query in data.table  'i' field : (HispanicorLatinoPCT - WhiteAlonePCT >= 0) & (CVAP_EST_White_Alone - CVAP_EST_HispanicorLatino >= 0).  

This post is under construction. It includes race, CVAP ("Citizen Voting Age Population"), and turnout in WA with ongoing correlation analysis. Click to enlarge graph and tables. For documentation and introduction, please  see Part I

Thursday, June 28, 2018

"2018" CVAP Data and graphs. Part I

Below are lattice (trellis) graphs of CVAP data from https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial-census/about/voting-rights/cvap.html. See technical documentation here.  This is the latest Citizen Voting Age Population for WA state by county and "lower house" legislative districts. Below the break are (4) charts for Counties and (5) charts for LD that describe:
  • CVAP_EST_Total # Citizen Voting Age Population Total per County or LD.
  • TOT_EST_Total   # Total estimated population per County or LD.
  • CVAP_EST_White_Alone  #  Citizen Voting Age Population for race "White Alone".
  • TOT_EST_White_Alone     #  Total estimated "White Alone" population.
  • (CVAP_EST_Total - CVAP_EST_White_Alone)  # The remaining CVAP not "White Alone".
  • (TOT_EST_Total - TOT_EST_White_Alone)       # The remaining population not "White Alone. 
Because the charts are detailed, there is a zip and 7zip file with spreadsheets and jpgs here. The data fields for county and legislative districts are as below.

t(rbind(County[1],SLDL[1]))

         [,1]                      [,2]                                    
GEONAME  "Autauga County, Alabama" "State House District 1 (2016), Alabama"
LNTITLE  "Total"                   "Total"                                 
GEOID    "05000US01001"            "62000US01001"                          
LNNUMBER "1"                       "1"                                     
TOT_EST  "55050"                   "46015"                                 
TOT_MOE  NA                        "1138"                                  
ADU_EST  "41195"                   "36130"                                 
ADU_MOE  " 34"                     "856"                                   
CIT_EST  "54510"                   "45450"                                 
CIT_MOE  " 263"                    "1115"                                  
CVAP_EST "40690"                   "35660"                                 
CVAP_MOE "236"                     "851"


LNTITLE covers the following racial/ethnic classifications:

 SLDL[,.(LNTITLE=unique(LNTITLE))]
                                                           LNTITLE
 1:                                                          Total
 2:                                         Not Hispanic or Latino
 3:                         American Indian or Alaska Native Alone
 4:                                                    Asian Alone
 5:                                Black or African American Alone
 6:                Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander Alone
 7:                                                    White Alone
 8:                     American Indian or Alaska Native and White
 9:                                                Asian and White
10:                            Black or African American and White
11: American Indian or Alaska Native and Black or African American
12:                        Remainder of Two or More Race Responses
13:                                             Hispanic or Latino 

 For more information, please see technical documentation. Click on charts to enlarge.

Sunday, June 24, 2018

Voting History Matplots : 2014 vs. 2016 (Part II)


Turnout rates from Voting Histories for the top 10 most populous WA Counties: Blue = 2016, Green = 2014, Red = 2017. Click to enlarge the chart.

In the last post I looked at voter participation (turnout) volumes from voter histories per county for General Elections 2014 - 2017 or GE 2014 - GE 2017. I now look at the top ten most populous WA counties. Each of these counties has over 100K registered voters in GE 2017. These top ten counties account for 82% of all registered voters in WA in GE 2017. The top five counties account for 66% of all registered voters in WA in GE 2017. But their rates of participation in the various election years show differences pictured above.

Saturday, June 23, 2018

Voting History Matplots : 2014 vs. 2016 (Part I)

Below the break are matplots from voting histories of the top 5  and bottom 34 WA counties for General Elections 2014 - 2017. The open purple circle represents GE2016 turnout, the filled green circle represents GE2014.  (Red square is GE2017, filled blue circle is GE2015). The top chart is turnout volume for KI, PI, SN, SP, CR - the top five WA counties. That left hand axis is 200K - 1M. The bottom chart is the bottom 34 or rest of state. That left hand axis is 20K - 140K. Tables with turnout volumes for all counties follow. Note that the WA SoS warns that data form the voting histories does not always match reported final votes. Click on the charts to enlarge.

Sunday, June 17, 2018

General data advice for candidates


Below is some information and links that might help you with public campaign data. Remember that working with data requires previous experience. Some data can be analyzed with spreadsheets, but statewide data will require database or data analytics software functionality.

Colllapsible Trees

These are images of Collapsible Trees of LCDs, RJIs, by LCD, Precincts and Counties. Click to Enlarge.
See http://rmfmedia.com/public/viewhtml for URLs.
See also https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/collapsibleTree/collapsibleTree.pdf
The 'hierarchy' argument defines the tree data in the code below the break.

No warranty for any data is expressed or implied. 
Please use at your own risk. Please understand all the laws that govern the use of WA Electoral Data: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/vrdb/vrdbfaq.aspx

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

The Libertarian Challenge in WA State

Top 6 Party Prefers declared during filing week by Count (N):

                            PartyName   N
 1:        (Prefers Democratic Party) 168
 2:        (Prefers Republican Party) 144
 3:                                    36
 4:       (Prefers Independent Party)  19
 5:      (States No Party Preference)  14
 6:       (Prefers Libertarian Party)  12
...
See table at bottom for full list.

I dug into the campaign contributions and expenditures this last weekend and found myself captivated the "strength" of the Libertarian movement nationwide and in WA State. Matthew Dubin has multiple $2K donations from out of state 'libertarian supporters'. As of last Friday, he is nearly leading the campaign funding race in LD 36th outspending his opponent incumbent Noel Frame.

Sunday, June 3, 2018

PDC Contributions through June 1st

This is PDC data for 2018 campaign contributions until June 1 or the first five months of this year. We now are five months from the November general elections. I list the top 20 for each query ordered by Contrib (Contribution).

Saturday, June 2, 2018

PDC Expenditures through June 1st

This is PDC data for 2018 campaign expenditures until June 1 or the first five months of this year. We now are five months from the November general elections. I list the top 20 for each query ordered by expenditure (Expend).

Thursday, May 24, 2018

2018 Filing week is over... (Part III)


Click to Enlarge WA Map of LD, CD, Precincts.
WA State filing week is over. The state lists 416 Legislative, Congressional, Judicial and Federal candidates for office.  Each county also has local offices.You can find more information at these URLs:
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled? 

Download:
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/Elections/Candidates/ExportToExcel?electionYear=0&countyCode=XX # all state
https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/Elections/Candidates/ExportToExcel?electionYear=0&countyCode=WM # Whatcom 


Some lists with R Code (from data.table library) below the break. Font needs wide screen and probably some zoom.

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Here Comes Filing Week : Part II

Filing week is upon us. You can check here:

 

https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled? # Entire State

https://weiapplets.sos.wa.gov/elections/Candidates/WhoFiled?countyCode=wm # Whatcom County

 

Below the break are tables of GE 2016 Presidential and Legislative votes by County and Legislative District.

A Postgres query  like this:

 Guy Palumbo        | Legislative District 1 - State Senator  | 28003 #KI only

 Mindie Wirth       | Legislative District 1 - State Senator  | 22395 #KI only

 Mindie Wirth       | Legislative District 1 State Senator    | 30850 # “Rest of State” not KI

 Guy Palumbo        | Legislative District 1 State Senator    | 40758 # “Rest of State” not KI

can be confusing because it shows King County ("KI") and Rest of the State ("ROS") in two separate entries.

Far below, LDs split between KI and “ROS” are expressed like this as an R (data.table) query:

  LD KI_TRUMP ROS_TRUMP KI_CLINTON ROS_CLINTON Trump Clinton

  1     5987     16836      14921       31482 22823   46403

or split between LD ~ County for KI and “ROS” like this:

   LD County KI_TRUMP ROS_TRUMP KI_CLINTON ROS_CLINTON Trump Clinton

   1     KI     5987         0      14921           0  5987   14921

   1     SN        0     16836          0       31482 16836   31482

Let me know if you have any questions or find any errors. No warranty for this data is expressed or implied. Use at your own risk.

-RMF 1:12 PM 5/14/2018

Thursday, May 3, 2018

Here Comes Filing Week 2018 (Part I)






Filing week starts May 14th. 2018 is a Congressional and Legislative District election year. The maps of WA state above give counties in blue outline, LDs in solid color and CDs in black outline.  The more densely populated the district the smaller the size of the  district.  The maps above are created data from WA OFM. Click to enlarge charts in a separate window. Let me know if you have any questions or find any errors. No warranty for this data is expressed or implied. Use at your own risk.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Blaine School District 503 Proposition 2018-3 Technology and Capital Projects Levy

Blaine School District 503 Proposition 2018-3 Technology and Capital Projects Levy is winning by 237 votes as of Monday 4/30/2018. The Blaine School District showed strong anti-tax sentiment in comparison to the 2016 Blaine School District levy.  This race could have gone either way. The numbers below the break are from Friday, April 27. This race will be certified May 4.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Cross County Active Voter Migrations: GE2016 to GE2017


 42,890 active voters moved counties between 11.2016 and 12.2017.   Click to enlarge the chart above to show what the top 20 migration flows looked liked. Thanks to consultant Kyle Walker for the clear instructions on using the networkD3 library.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

"LCD" and LD Projections: 2018


These are "LCD" projections for 2018. Each LD part is coupled with their CD match (e.g. 42_1, 42_2) to give a more realistic picture of what races are competitive and what are not based on 2016 Presidential Votes. When I look at it this way, only LDs 6,10,17,24,26,44 represent competitive races. (e.g. margins less than 5% for the LD.) Some 'LCD's are competitive but the LD race is drowned out by the strength of one party in the opposing LCD(s). Not all LDs are split between CDs. The more dense, urban LDs in Seattle are often encompassed by one CD.

Monday, March 19, 2018

WCD 2018 Election Results

In the 2018 Whatcom Conservation District election,  Alan Chapman (endorsed by both the Riveter's Collection and the Whatcom Democrats) appears to have defeated incumbent Larry Helm by 31 votes. Last year, Heather Christianson defeated Suzanne Snyder. Click on the chart to enlarge. View this data on a wide screen. Candidate statements here.

Monday, March 12, 2018

March 2018: Data For Counties, LD and CD.


For all of you who are thinking about filing for office in May: WA VRDB  and OFM GIS data by County, LD, CD with some snapshots of data are below the break. Click to enlarge the images.

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Republicans encroaching on COB precincts?


Below are two bar plots that show Republican voters are making some gains in COB and other liberal precincts since 2016. This data looks at marginal percentage differences for 87 (February Special Election) precincts between:

  • 2016: Clinton vs. Trump
  • 2017: Buchanan vs. Robinson
  • 2018: BPS501_Approved vs. BPS501 Rejected.

These elections had

  • completely different turnouts
  • precincts changes between 2016 and 2017
  • partial precincts for some of the February Special Election 
  • and (for convenience) I am using 02/2018 active registrants total for all elections. 

I am wary of narratives that show Republican strength decreasing either here or across the nation. The Republican model for securing a favorable electorate looks much different than the Democratic model: social conservatives, quiet Americans, silent majorities may not march in the streets as much, but they may well meet at church every Sunday.  This doesn't mean Republicans aren't winning votes or that Democratic activism isn't alienating swing voters.  Click to enlarge chart.

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Certified February Special Election Data


Below are cor.tests for 2016 and 2017 candidates vs. 2018 BPS501 results per precinct.  A full list of non protected precinct data is below with 2016, 2017 election results and 2018 BPS bond results. You will need to view this on a wide screen, not a phone. This is stats heavy with no added chit chat.

Monday, February 12, 2018

How the BPS 501 Bond Vote played Out (updated with Final match back and Results)

Both BPS 501 bond and MBS 507 levy have passed.


Bellingham Public School  district 501 (90) 2017 precincts outlined in Black and White. Color scale for City and County are 2016 precinct boundaries colored blue to red representing the  Clinton - Trump difference.  Color and outlines demarcate changes between 2016 and 2017 precincts. Click to enlarge. An online map of precincts from the WC Election office is here.

There were two school district financing measures on your ballot this week. If you live in either the Mt. Baker 507 or Bellingham 501 school districts you could and did vote for:
  • Bellingham School District 501 Proposition 2018-1 General Obligation Bonds - $155,000,000
  • Mt Baker School District 507 Proposition 2018-2 Facilities and Technology Levy
For more information on the BPS 501 Bond itself please see More Information at bottom of this post. The rest of this post contains statistical data simulating the BPS 501 bond vote from 2016 and 2017 election results. Matchback totals and projections have been updated with the final results.  Both the Bond and Levy passed.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Men, Women, Trump, Clinton, Rural, Urban Votes

Below are a couple of interesting "top 20" precinct lists. The first list are precincts in GE 2016  that had at least 75 more male voters than females ranked by votes for Hillary Clinton. The second list are precincts in GE 2016 that had at least 75 more female voters than males ranked by votes for Donald Trump. In these 40 precincts, it appears rural/urban dynamics are overcoming gender dynamics. These results are merged with 12/07/2016 WA Voterdb, so they will be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Top Clinton and Trump Precincts GE2016

Top 100 GE 2016 precincts ranked by percentage with 50 or more votes each for either Trump (beige-left col) or Clinton (azure-right col).  These lists emphasize the Rural/Urban party split in WA. Click to enlarge charts. Best viewed on desktop.

Thursday, January 11, 2018

2016 DJT HRC Precinct Correlations for all WA Counties


R's correlation coefficient  gives us a positive <-> negative correlation score (1,-1). "0" describes no correlation. These results are merged with 12/07/2016 Voterdb so these may be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS.  Here are the correlation coefficient for 2016 GE precinct votes for DJT (Trump) and HRC (Clinton) from:

2016 LD and CD with KI separated

These should be 2016 WA Congressional and Legislative District returns with KING County votes separated as "KI". The results are merged with 12/07/16 Voterdb so these may be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS