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Sunday, September 30, 2018

Election URLs and Links

GE 2018 Election URLs and Links

These are some sites useful for the November 6th, 2018 General Election in Whatcom County and the four county area of Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties.

Saturday, September 29, 2018

Summed Voting histories for the four county area (WM,SK,IS,SJ)

For the four county area (WM,SK,IS,SJ), we have the following totals for Primary 2018 for the August VRDB:

[1] 128303 # Active and Voted
[1] 154465 # Active and Not Voted

I sum the voting histories (per voter) of each of these groups below. Note that the Voted vs. Not Voted charts are approximately 2x in scale.  This post will probably need a wide screen.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Metrics and Charts for Mail-in vs. DropBox by WA County for 2017 and 2018

The chart immediately below represents a comparison of mail in ballots for Pri2018 , Pri2017, GE2017 for the top 10 WA counties excluding King which is shown far below. This data is from the state's election reconciliation reports.  In a previous post on Gender and the Vote I discuss groups of voters by their recent voting history.  Here, I look simply at two ballot return methods (Mail-in vs. DropBox) to help determine if the new "stampless ballot" is enticing new and old populations to vote more than usual. Note that it may be difficult to separate voter motives and habits by ballot return methodologies. But the long purple bars of PRI2018 in chart below, bars that outstretch both PRI2017(blue) and GE2017(red), indicate mail-in balloting is big hit. Click to enlarge Charts.

Mail-in Totals for Top Ten Counties

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Charts from 4 County (IS,SK,SJ,WM) Area

Charts from GE2016 and PRI2018 results from the four county area:
  • Island
  • Skagit
  • San Juan
  • Whatcom

Monday, September 17, 2018

Ballots have Dropped... Should be in your mailbox soon.

This October 8th deadline for online voter registration has now passed. If your address is not current @ myvote.wa.gov please call your local elections office to see how you can still vote in the November 6th election. For election offices in the  four county area, please see  these links for Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties.  The 18 day election period starts today October 19th and runs until the November 6th general election.  You should have received your voter's pamphlet by now. Check your voter registration if you have not.  Some important election deadlines and information for voters are below:
This is the new "stampless ballot". Drop boxes for Whatcom County can be found here. The WA Dems produced a drop box map for all of WA here. These deadlines and other information can be seen at http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election  (Whatcom County) and at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections (WA SOS).  In general, WA requires registration at a specific address 29 days before the election. New laws take effect in June of 2019. See RCW 29A.08.140 @ http://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=29A.08.140.  For further questions about your registration status in Whatcom County, please visit myvote.wa.gov or contact Whatcom County Elections. For election offices in the  four county area, please see  these links for Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties. More numbers and details after the break...

Saturday, September 15, 2018

Advice for PCOs and volunteers seeking data and instructions

If you are a PCO (Precinct Committee Officer) or campaign volunteer, probably the best place to seek data and marching orders for the 2018 midterms is your local county or state party headquarters. If you are in Whatcom County, contact either:
If you are not in Whatcom County, try to find your local party headquarters for your county. You could also visit the State Party sites:
This blog is an independent site with no party alliances. Although I worked with the Democratic Party for 2017, I have not been a member since November 2017. The data on this page is essentially non-partisan. If you are a candidate and/or data professional looking for data sources outside your party's data you can try some of the links I have posted here:

http://www.bellinghampoliticsandeconomics.com/2018/06/general-data-advise-for-candidates.html

Unless, you are a data professional, it is probably not a good idea to second guess your party's instructions.  If you wish to support your party during the election period, now is a probably good time to commit to that support, seek training, get to know your party, etc. This support usually includes: canvassing precincts, making donations, phone calling, stapling flyers, etc. It is not difficult work, but each party does it with different methodologies and data sources.

My personal advice to volunteers and campaign managers based on my previous experience is as follows:

[For Volunteers:]
Don't do any campaign work you don't feel comfortable with. Your parties have some responsibility to provide you with instructions, materials, training and technology  that you need to be productive.  However, please remember most party officials are volunteers just like yourself. Apply yourself with flexibility and initiative.

[For Party leaders:]
Try to free your volunteers  from the  "the internal politics" of the party itself. Make your volunteer assignments simple, straightforward and without litmus tests.  Remember that volunteers come in many shapes, sizes, and belief systems. Be clear and easy to understand with your instruction sets.

[The Vast "Purpality"]
There is evidence for both the United States and the state of WA that much of the potential vote is essentially independent and that many precinct residents are quite possibly some shade of purple rather than red or blue. Looking at the results for your precinct and county elections can help you visualize your local neighborhood's place in the blue to red spectrum of our vast "purpality".  I try to remember that the largest bloc of  voters in the United States for almost all non-presidential election years is not a particular race, gender, party or class. The largest bloc of voters in the United States for any election is almost always those who did not vote! Your job as a campaign volunteer is to convince others to vote for your candidate and perhaps your party. Civility, kindness, grace, and respect are your best tools to complete that mission. Patience and tolerance are your best tools to survive your mission.