Wednesday, October 31, 2018

WA State Projections for CD, LD, County: 11/06/2018

Terrain (light green) colored areas here generally have less than 66 votes returned per precinct after  (11.06.2018) of the WA state midterm election.  However, turnout buckets for Kitsap are incorrect on this map along with some other precincts due to some 2016/2017/2018 precinct merge issues.  For more updated news on turnout see

Over 39M have early voted in the 2018 GE as of the evening of 11/05/2018 according to Michael McDonald at the U.S. Election Project.  This morning the latest WA data came in taking WA turnout over 2.3M votes. My latest projections show Schrier just ahead of Rossi in CD 8. I also show R's winning CDs 3 - 5 handily. And unlike the reported polls for CD five (McMorris-Rodgers vs Brown), my current CD 5 projections aren't even close. What's weird about Nate Silver's 538 collection of polls for CD 8 and other WA CDs: They are widely disparate depending on the pollster!My projections are really straightforward:

sum of   ( Clinton+Stein/ (Clinton+Stein+Trump+Johnson) * (Votes Good/Precinct) )

I make no attempt to deal with changed precincts or districts between 2016 and 2018 although there have been no County, CD , LD district changes in WA since 2010 of which I am aware. There have been plenty of precinct changes in many WA counties. So in many ways, if my projection of the GE2016 contest upon current races has any value, it is update us on who has voted more at this hour. More projections below the break. 

The Ballot Statistics page is always one morning ahead of the state wide matchback data. Statewide 2,305,405 good ballots have been returned as of 11.06.2018.  The Ballot Status data is responsible for my projections. I have that data currently showing 2,234,777.


   CD  Total      D      R
 1:  1 241150 132194 105033
 2:  2 222155 134088  87683
 3:  3 238541 100594 124864 #Long(D) vs. Herrera Beutler(R)
 4:  4 165799  57961 106644
 5:  5 226772  90361 130435 #Brown(D) and McMorris Rodgers(R)
 6:  6 221468 117469  99678
 7:  7 298565 247066  45399
 8:  8 234791 114097 115203 #Schrier(D) and Rossi(R)
 9:  9 202915 144438  53457
10: 10 182621  97888  81931

Monday, October 29, 2018

Precinct and County Participation Maps: 11/05/2018

WA Counties Turnout for 11/05/2018: 4:00PM Click to enlarge the chart.

I will update this post with fresh data daily through the remaining election period. - RMF 11/05/2018 7:00 PM.

Ballot Statistics as of 11.05.2018 4:00PM show 1.9M ballots returned. This is a fairly blistering state-wide 44.9% turnout rate. However, there is a wide range to county turnout currently stretching from 36.6% to 66.30%.  Among counties with voter populations over 50K, Clallam, Whatcom, Island and Spokane county stand out for their turnout.  If you have not yet received a ballot, you should call your local Elections office immediatelyYou should also vote early, check  and check "Ballot Status" box after voting. The magic phrase you want to see is "Your ballot has been accepted for tabulation." That means you are good to go!  
The Ballot Statistics page is always one morning ahead of the state wide matchback data. Currently, (11.05.2018), we are 0 days from the election. Statewide 1,937,253  good ballots have been returned as of 11.05.2018 4:00 PM.  The Ballot Status data is responsible for my projections. I have that data from 11.05.2018 data currently showing about 1,881,846.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

11/06/2018 Matchbacks and Projections GE2018 for WM, SK, IS, SJ

Click to enlarge the Map. For more on this data please see

This post gives GE 2018 ballot statistics and election projections for the "four county area": (WM,SK,IS,SJ) and their CD, LD districts.  I am using a GE 2016  Clinton+Stein projection of precincts as the base for my projections due to wide scale national expectations of an unexpectedly large midterm turnout. My method will probably result in a gross approximation of outcomes. I am using no private voter files, no latent classes, no individual profiling, just precinct percentages.

The Ballot Statistics page is always one morning ahead of the state wide matchback data. Currently, (11.06.2018), we are 1 day from the election. Statewide 2,305,405 good ballots have been returned as of 11.06.2018.  The Ballot Status data is responsible for my projections. I have that data currently showing about 2,234,777.

Monday, October 15, 2018

How GE2018 Could Play out in WM,SK,SJ,IS. Part I: The Districts

Post under Construction. Last update: 9:48 AM 10/16/2018 . This post is best seen on a wide screen desktop.-RMF

In the table below, we can see combined GE 2016 results for Clinton+Stein (CS) or Trump+Johnson (TJ) and Primary 2018 results for MariaCantwell (MC) or SusanHutchison (SH). Skagit 10 (light blue), Whatcom 42-2 (dark blue) and 40th LD (yellow) are critical for Democrat success in the four county area. In reality, only WM 40-2, WM 42-2, SK 40-1 and SJ 40-2 are sure bets for 'blue' in a heavy turnout GE.  This makes LD 40  + WM 42-2 (North Bellingham) the liberal anchors in a four county area that could turn red with a stronger Republican turnout. This helps put the "double Mike P." strategy in perspective. Petrish and Peetoom can't really beat Lekanoff and Frazey, but they can help Seguine (R) beat Hazelrigg-Hernandez (D) and also help the 42LD Rs in their customary cruise over the 42LD Ds. No votes can be taken for granted in this year's four county election that mostly pits middle-aged Republican men versus progressive Democratic women. The primary went mostly to the Democrats in Whatcom County. However, turnout is likely to resemble GE 2016 this November due to the new stampless ballot and an unruly, "hyper energized" electorate now chafing at their electoral bits nationwide!  Let the balloting begin!

    CD LD County    CS    TJ    MC    SH   StatusGE  StatusPRI
 1:  1 42     WM 21683 30582 11763 11655  Light Red Light Blue
 2:  2 10     IS 21767 20784 13552  7612 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 3:  2 40     WM 25079  8355 12810  2997  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 4:  2 42     WM 14828  5266  8181  1742  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 5:  2 40     SK  9925  8994  6013  3135 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 6:  2 40     SJ  7639  3090  4780  1197  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 7:  2 10     SK  4843  4592  2913  1749 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 8:  1 10     SK  3909  3704  2270  1295 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 9:  1 40     SK  4129  3354  1862   935 Light Blue  Dark Blue
10:  2 39     SK  2547  3637  1385  1074  Light Red Light Blue
11:  1 39     SK  2283  3441  1374  1046   Dark Red Light Blue
12:  1 40     WM  1487  1117   811   474 Light Blue  Dark Blue

In the charts below, black lines are Congressional Districts (CD1 & CD2). Red lines are Legislative Districts 10, 39, 40,  & 42.  Blue scale for precincts is the Clinton+Stein percentage. Note that Clinton+Stein vs. Trump+Johnson doesn't give us the complete picture for GE 2016 since there were so many (un-tabulated) write-ins presumably for Bernie.  For more data, please see 'Notes' far below. Click to enlarge the charts!