Part I of an analysis of the FINAL matchback from the Whatcom County 2019 Primary. The small print requires big screen ideally. Will not display well on cellphones. - RMF
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Tuesday, August 27, 2019
Sunday, August 18, 2019
Predictions for the 2019 General Election: County Council at Large
The charts below represent two twenty column tables that sort by the largest difference of
(1) Maria Cantwell's 2018 GE tally vs. Carol Frazey 2019 PRI totals.
(2) Susan Hutchison's 2019 GE tally vs Carol Frazey 2019 PRI totals for her three combined Republican opponents. A sum of this type of potential difference of all precincts would give a 13,405 vote difference to Carol Frazey:
(1) Maria Cantwell's 2018 GE tally vs. Carol Frazey 2019 PRI totals.
(2) Susan Hutchison's 2019 GE tally vs Carol Frazey 2019 PRI totals for her three combined Republican opponents. A sum of this type of potential difference of all precincts would give a 13,405 vote difference to Carol Frazey:
- SCWMCF[,fsum(diff)] 33,425 # Cantwell - Frazey
- SCWMHC[,fsum(diff)] 20,020 # Hutchison - CombinedR
- SCWMCF[,fsum(diff)] - SCWMHC[,fsum(diff)] 13,405
This lead could be considered in addition to the 7K Frazey votes finished ahead of her three combined Republican opponents. There is no intersection between the two sets of 20 precincts below. Clearly, the "all county" races are the Democrats to lose. But can they get all their faithful to vote in an 'off year' or local election? Click to enlarge the charts.
Friday, August 9, 2019
Election Summary: Mostly for Whatcom County but also some state data
Note:Updated some generational demographics below the break - RMF 08/31/2019 . For more information on demographics from the final Whatcom County matchback see this post.
These are primary turnouts for the last 5 years. Note that 'Registered' here is strictly those voters involved in the Primary election. In odd (local) election years, many counties have partial precinct participation:
2015 3,356,735 817,876 24.37% 08/19/2015
These are primary turnouts for the last 5 years. Note that 'Registered' here is strictly those voters involved in the Primary election. In odd (local) election years, many counties have partial precinct participation:
Year Registered BallotsRet TO LastUpdate
2019 3,967,681 1,173,009 29.56% 08/20/2019
2018 4,299,309 1,753,545 40.79% 08/21/2018
2017 3,781,977 1,017,946 26.92% 08/15/2017
2016 4,102,624 1,431,058 34.88% 08/16/2016
Tuesday, August 6, 2019
WA State MatchBack data from 08.05.2019
Below are WA state matchback return information for 08.05.2019 [source]. Official (pre-result) update for the primary can be found here: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx. My totals are derived from the state issued matchbacks only. These totals will change daily. Totals as of 08.05.2019. I am sticking with the July 17th VRDB totals for total voter 'Count' for this post:
CountyCode Count Accepted Received Rejected
Total 4432473 726900 6308 11641
CountyCode Count Accepted Received Rejected
Total 4432473 726900 6308 11641
Statewide turnout is at Ballot Statistics was 18.8% as of 08/05/2019 5PM . That will change a lot in the next two reporting days. My data gives it at 16.4% with 726,900 'Accepted' votes. This statistic assumes all counties and precincts are active for this 2019 Primary election and some counties will only have a partial primary.
(726900/4432473) * 100
16.399
I have statewide rejection (challenged ballots) at 1.56% with 11,641 'Rejected' votes. Please check https://voter.votewa.gov | 'Ballot Status' to see whether or not your ballot has been 'Accepted'. If you have not voted yet, do so now please:
11641/(726900+6308+11641) * 100
1.5629
16.399
I have statewide rejection (challenged ballots) at 1.56% with 11,641 'Rejected' votes. Please check https://voter.votewa.gov | 'Ballot Status' to see whether or not your ballot has been 'Accepted'. If you have not voted yet, do so now please:
11641/(726900+6308+11641) * 100
1.5629
A quick look at the 10 counties with more than 100K registered status active voters shows Spokane,Whatcom and King outdistancing other counties in PCT_Accepted ballots. It also shows Benton county with a comparatively high percentage of rejected ballots. However, most of these are "undeliverables" which only ten counties are reporting now. See this post here for more information on Challenged Ballots.
Monday, August 5, 2019
Those "SDR", "Signature Does Not Match", "Undeliverable", "Unsigned", Ballot Challenged Blues...
I am publishing some statistics and thoughts I have shared with Benton county and other Democrats recently about Ballot Challenge statuses in this first "Same Day Registration" election in WA state. The discussion below the break is long and technical and contains hypothetical statements. Here is the "bottom line" for you as a WA voter:
- If you have not received your ballot yet, call or visit your County Elections department.
- If you have mailed or dropped into a drop box your ballot, check https://voter.votewa.gov | Ballot Status to make sure your ballot has been 'Accepted'.
- If your ballot has other status (see types below), you may have to contact your County Elections department to 'cure' your ballot either now or during the "Certification" period.
Thursday, August 1, 2019
WA State MatchBack data from 07.31.2019
Below are WA county return information for 07.31.2019 [source]. Some smaller counties (AS, GA, SM, WK, WT) are not yet reporting. Those counties may not have 2019 Primary election candidates. These totals will change daily. Totals as of 07.31.2019:
CountyCode Count Accepted Received Rejected
Total 4432473 506618 5634 10048
CountyCode Count Accepted Received Rejected
Total 4432473 506618 5634 10048
Statewide turnout is at 11.43% with 506,618 'Accepted' votes. This statistic assumes all counties and precincts are active for this 2019 Primary election and some counties will only have a partial primary. In addition, 'special filing periods' are now open for unfilled races in certain counties:
(506618/4432473) * 100
11.43
Statewide rejection is at 1.93% with 10,048 'Rejected' votes. Please check https://voter.votewa.gov | 'Ballot Status' to see whether or not your ballot has been 'Accepted'. If you have not voted yet, do so now please:
(10048/(506618+5634+10048)) * 100
1.9238
11.43
Statewide rejection is at 1.93% with 10,048 'Rejected' votes. Please check https://voter.votewa.gov | 'Ballot Status' to see whether or not your ballot has been 'Accepted'. If you have not voted yet, do so now please:
(10048/(506618+5634+10048)) * 100
1.9238
A quick look at the 10 counties with more than 100K registered status active voters shows Spokane,Whatcom and King outdistancing other counties in PCT_Accepted ballots. It also shows Benton county with a comparatively high percentage of rejected ballots:
Column Totals represent:
Count # 07.17.2017 Status Active Voters
Accepted # Ready for Tabulation (e.g. 'Turnout')
Received # On conveyor belt for Accepted/Rejected
Rejected # Challenged Ballots
PCT_Accepted=round(Accepted/Count,3) * 100 (e.g. Turnout PCT)
PCT_reject = round(Rejected/(Accepted+Received+Rejected),3)* 100)
See here for list of County Codes with map.
Column Totals represent:
Count # 07.17.2017 Status Active Voters
Accepted # Ready for Tabulation (e.g. 'Turnout')
Received # On conveyor belt for Accepted/Rejected
Rejected # Challenged Ballots
PCT_Accepted=round(Accepted/Count,3) * 100 (e.g. Turnout PCT)
PCT_reject = round(Rejected/(Accepted+Received+Rejected),3)* 100)
See here for list of County Codes with map.