Some Charts

These charts below accompany this 11/16 summary of the Whatcom County GE2016 Election. Click on charts and tables to enlarge. -RMF

GE 2016: The Balkanized 42nd LD and a 40,000 strong Trump Vote in Whatcom County

The red/blue (Clinton - Trump) division of Whatcom County GE 2016.

I spent the weekend going over Whatcom County results.  The data in this post will be good until 5:00 PM Wednesday, 11/16/2016. Observations, final thoughts and a plea for your LD 42 Democratic membership follow. The google sheets data for this page can be found here and here. Note: Spreadsheet data updated to 11/18/2016:

Remember to Vote!!!

November 1st: 8 days and 60K ballots remaining?

Whatcom County preferred party vote shares from 10.31.2016 'MatchBack' Report by AVReturnedDate. Click to enlarge.

Ballots Drop Tommorrow, October 18th...

Ballot drops tomorrow, October 18th. Look for your ballot in your mail.

This has been an unusual election season. Full of ... interesting developments and laden with lots of public interest.  In Whatcom County (and WA State), you should have received your 151 page Voter's Pamphlet. If not, you can read it online. If you are looking for Election Forums in Whatcom County, you can find at least two at the Whatcom County League of Women Voters.  They are:

Why do we vote Democrat? Part I

Picture of the author's grandfather (circa 1972). "Bompa" worked on the waterfront most of his life, dropping out of school in sixth grade to support his family. He joined "Harry Bridges and his men" in 1934. During WWII, he and his fellow longshoremen laid on their backs and rolled 55 gallon barrels of oil with their feet into the hull of freighters destined for the war effort. After the mechanization of the waterfront, he became a hod carrier and then a brick mason until his retirement at 65.

Why do we vote as Democrats?

It would be 82 years ago that my grandfather was shouldering 100 lb. sacks of sugar from ship to warehouse on the Oakland waterfront. The year was 1934 and the times were desperate. During my youth, when the discussion turned to politics  my grandfather would often say with some emphasis:

"We knew people, Ryan. We knew people who were hungry. They were standing in the bread lines and starving to death!"

November Election Resources and Links

Resources for Voting and Participating in the November 8th General Election:

Why you should check myvote.wa.gov before October 10th...

Editor's note: The deadline for online registration (October 10th) has passed for this year. If you are a new WA state resident you can still walk into the Whatcom County elections office until October 31st to register. For all other questions, please call the Whatcom County Elections office at the contacts here: http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election . Thanks, -RMF

"How and Why Donald Trump and Republicans will win Whatcom County this Fall."

"First, don’t think of an elephant. Remember not to repeat false conservative claims and then rebut them with the facts. Instead, go positive. Give a positive truthful framing to undermine claims to the contrary. Use the facts to support positively-framed truth. "  - George Lakeoff from https://georgelakoff.com/2016/07/23/understanding-trump-2/

I published the blog post below the break  ("How and Why Donald Trump and Republicans will win Whatcom County this Fall.") on August 22nd, let it run for a week and then I pulled it because I thought it was very negative. But I've changed my mind. I think many Clinton Democrats are operating in shrinking closet, accomplishing little but kibitzing with one another on why they think Donald Trump can never be President of the United States.  November may well bring a Republican landslide of epic proportions here in Whatcom County and the state of WA, if the numbers I have looked at are indicative of the general election. Personally, I think it is a really bad idea to sit around and bitch about Donald Trump. You are wasting time you could be using to support Democrats. My guess is George Lakeoff would agree. Here are some ways you can support the Democratic Party, even if you really don't like Hillary Clinton or the federal (e.g. "super delegate") candidates:

Withering Primary Participation in Whatcom County and WA ahead of August 2nd Primary

May 24th and August 2nd  (2016) Primaries in Whatcom County: Comparing 'AVReturnedDate' by volume. Click to Enlarge.

Whether because of summering students or depressed Berners, primary participation in Whatcom County and across WA is unimpressive to date. After a strong weekend showing of 3,990 ballots on Monday, an underwhelming 430 ballots were received today (Tuesday) bringing Whatcom County's turnout to 12,557 (9.49%) with five (5) counting weekdays left. It is an unfair comparison due to student participation in May, but the recent Presidential Primary had 30,869 ballots received in the same number of days ahead of May 24th, 2016.  Most of the state is doing no better than us: www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/Ballot-Return-Statistics.aspx.

HTML Table of Whatcom County Sample Ballot with Endorsements

August 2nd Primary: Are we voting yet?

NOPE. NOT YET! Not really... Millennials aren't voting either...

Who do I vote for?

If I were a voter in Whatcom County, my number one question right now is: "Who do I vote for?"

Come August 3rd, if you eventually find your precinct turnout is low or that falloff is high, the lists below the break taken from the sample ballot might explain why.  PCO elections are not listed here. I am imagining a wave of electoral choices washing over casual or "low information" voters like a rogue wave overwhelming an unaware beach comber. 8/10s of 1% of all ballots have been returned by this morning.

Ballots Mailed: July 13, 2016
Number of Registered Voters: 134,011
Ballots Returned: 1,093
Percentage of Ballots returned: 10:59 AM 7/18/2016
(1093/134011) * 100
[1] 0.816

Demographics from the July 6th WA State Voterdb

Democrat Candidate Links: Sharlaine LaClair, Tracy Atwood, others

Legislative District 42:

Sharlaine LaClair

• http://sharlainelaclair.nationbuilder.com/
• https://www.facebook.com/Elect-Sharlaine-LaClair-391834654273919/

Tracy Atwood

• http://www.make42blue.com/
• https://www.facebook.com/atwoodfor42/
• ttps://twitter.com/@make42blue

Other Sources of Election Recommendations:

Whatcom Democrats

http://www.whatcomdemocrats.com/content/candidates

WA State Democrats Endorsement Finder

http://www.wa-democrats.org/endorsements

FUSE (Progressive Voter Guide)

http://progressivevotersguide.com/node/1036

Whatcom GE 2015 vs Whatcom Presidential Primary 2016

The 2015 GE had about 7K more votes than the 54K 2016 Presidential Primary.  In the quantile (equal-frequency) class intervals  and the spreadsheet below the break, here is what Bellingham and  Whatcom County turnout looked like per precinct last week and six months ago.

May 24th Presidential Primary in Whatcom County

Click to Enlarge

In Whatcom County, Sanders walloped Clinton in Presidential Primary. 53,234 ballots have been counted according to the Auditor . I have 54,074 good ballots  with a party selected received  from 5/27 matchbacks. Certification is June 7, 2016.

Charts, Data, Conclusions from the May 24th WA Presidential Primary

This data is current as the evening of 5/24/2016. Data from WA SOS.
1.26M ballots (out of 4.08M registrants) have been counted. About 111K are still out.  -RMF

Click to Enlarge. Tonight's primary portrayed as a three way race.

Really Good Reasons to Vote Today in WA

Really Good Reasons to Vote Today in WA for a primary that some might characterize as superfluous:

PCO Candidacy Data as of 11:24 AM 5/23/2016:

PCO signup Data as of 11:24 AM 5/23/2016:
As of Monday the Democrats have a 149 - 74 edge on the Republicans for candidates for PCO. 115 of the Democrat precincts have one or more applicants.

Many Democrats are competing against one another for PCO.  This isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially if everyone gets together, shares responsibility and helps out! 27 Democrat races tonight have 2 or more PCOs. There is only an election choice if there is more than one candidate. Precincts candidates in 302(5 Candidates) might want to consider a meet.

"Cooper, this is no time for caution!"

With a week to go, the Primary return numbers are surprising the Whatcom County Elections Office:

Primary Ballots Returned (5:49 PM 5/17/2016) = 29,609

This strong an early return for a primary, even an all county primary, is huge. Keep in mind we barely eclipsed 60K in last November's GE!  The registration counts below the break show us why so many are voting. The registration rolls in Whatcom County are now clearly bloated with youth and Berners.

If you have ever thought about running for office or PCO, now is the time and this is filing week!  Notice in the registration numbers below that those born after 1966 in Whatcom County now eclipse those born before by (66121 - 64694) = 1,427. Notice that those born after 1980 now eclipse those born before 1950 by a stunning (38503 - 27968) = 10,535. Although we are very youth heavy in Whatcom County (thank you WWU, WWC, BTC), these proportions are now not unusual.  See similar numbers for all  of WA far below.

The future is here. Time for the DNC, local Democrats, and the rest of the world to wake up and smell the Millennials and the Berners. Youth and those of us still young enough not to be suffering cognitive degeneration will inherit what remains of the Earth. As my four year old likes to say: "There is no time to lose!" Perhaps I can also quote from the docking scene in "Interstellar": "Cooper, this is no time for caution!"

Illustrating the 42nd LD electorate for 2016; Post Under Construction

Voters of the 42nd LD Precincts sorted into groups of threes: 3 Votes for last GEs (2013,2014,2015), active but no votes for the last 3 GEs, NA for the last three GEs.  These three groups cover 61% of current active registered voterdb for LD42nd.  Based on 4/15/2016 WC voterdb. Click to enlarge. 

Find R (data.table) code here. Post under construction.

Do you want to become a Democrat PCO in Whatcom County?

Click to Enlarge. Link to larger image here. See also "GIS Precinct Based Maps:Ballots Good, Jack and Joy"

We can talk all we want about the revolution, the corruption, the greed, the incompetence, the futility of the two party system. However, the reality of modern political life means working within the community to spread the revolution, to establish trust, to build alliances with many,  to turn out the vote, to assure that our votes are counted and to make sure the system doesn't fail our children like it has failed us.  

Next week is Filing Week in Whacom County. Would you like to become a Democrat Precinct Committee Officer? This is an elected position. There is no filing fee. Here is information from the WA Secretary of State on the PCO positions:

Summary of Posts on County, LD, CD WA data from 04/01/2015 and 05/01/2016

This is a summary of statistical posts I have written recently that may help 'Berniecrats' running for office.  I am pretty much a self taught stats head, however I mean well. Some of my data may be confusing.  If you are a Berniecrat (in WA especially) seeking election and you need help with your voterdb; send me some of your bonafides and I will see what I can do.  I choose to believe most Berniecrats are high IQ by default. I code in R (with help from PostgreSQL and Redis).

The bottom line in the state of WA in 2016 is this: The "Bernie Effect" has meant a huge increase in registrants in WA districts and counties of Millennials, GenXrs, and other generations that support Bernie. The WA state voterdb now has as many active registrants born after 1966 as before. In certain counties, those born after 1980 have swollen the voting rolls to never before seen numbers. All my demographic data suggest to me the influence of boomers and the pre WWII generations is diminishing in the face of a surge of dissatisfied youth looking for progressive change in WA state. As far as I can see, you will be campaigning to a "Bernie Rally" crowd in most cities, counties, and legislative districts in WA.  I can't but help believe from my data, that if you are a Berniecrat challenger to an incumbent, that you will need all these Berners to vote for you!

Part IV Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Change in registrants for CC, LD, CD over the last 18.5 months

The tables below give the change in registered voters in WA over last 18.5 months (11.16.2014 - 05.01.2016). The active voting rolls increased 156,614 during those months with 135K of that increase coming from the top eleven counties. King County alone added 50K. Four counties (AS, CU, GA, LI) lost a total of  765 voters.

All Legislative Districts increased their totals. Eight LDs increased registrants by over 4000: 36, 34, 27, 43, 4, 21, 5, and 1.  Legislative District 36 has swollen to ~108K registrants, increasing by 5,481 since 11.16.2014. WA Congressional Districts have also seen large increases in registration. CD 7 increased by 20,837 registrants during those same 18.5 months. At the current pace, CD 7 will have 500K total registrants by 11/2017.  CD 7 and LD 36 (Seattle) are arguably the most Democratic and most liberal districts in the Pacific Northwest.

Part III Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: How many Berners are out there?

The charts and data below the break are dedicated to all you Berners that want to sign up to run  for Legislative Districts next week, the third week of May, when Filing Week opens. See PDFs and FAQs here: 1, 2, 3, 4 . You are probably wondering how many Berners are out there, will they vote for you, can you really take back that LD and become a progressive force in the Olympia?  I will let you answer all the tough questions while you lie awake at night.  Below the break are some data and charts to chew on.

Part I Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Birth Years of Registrants - 04/01/2016

Part II Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Registrants Partitioned by CC,LD,CD intersections - 04/01/2016

The top eleven most registered counties are 84% of the state's registered voters. Active WA voterdb registrants from County (CC), Congressional District (CD), and Legislative Districts(LD)  'partitions' are keyed and sorted by count, registration year, last year voted in the tables below the break. . Additional 'mixed queries' are far below. A 'partition' here I define as the unique number of active registrants that result from the (geographic) intersections of particular CC,CD or LD districts. Currently, there are 141 such unique partitions in WA, however the bottom nine exists simply because county voter rolls have not assigned CD and or LD or both to some small number of voters.

Sites Discussing Election Fraud

"We are not able to elect Bernie because there is so much of this fraud and voter suppression and rigging and caucus cheating going on. So it seems like magical thinking to continue to go forward with this campaign and not address the issue, to not fight the battle that will actually cost the election."

- Debbie Lusignan ("The Sane Progressive")

https://youtu.be/p29Ct_LDzqY?t=1273

Update on "The Bernie Effect" in Whatcom County

New or reactivated registrations are increasingly younger and more urban in Whatcom County. Click to Enlarge.

Density Curves. Left: Birth Years of Voters who have left the voter rolls in the last 17 months. Right: Birth Year of Voters who have joined voter rolls in the last 17 months. Click to Enlarge.

4,962 net voters have been added to the Whatcom County voting rolls in the last 17 months. 12,428 voters have left or been marked inactive. 17,390 have registered themselves as active. (Yes. That is stupendous number for Whatcom County.) We are adding almost 10 registrants per day.  These registrants would be a mix of original registrations and re-activations  or address changes. The last 17 months have been responsible for 3.9% increase in the voter database since 11/22/2014.

Tim Robbins gives 'em hell for Bernie!!

"Bernie is not the obligatory progressive that will keep the left in line until the presumptive moderative nominee emerges. Bernie is not the Democrat party insider that will bow down to the elites in the party. We are done with that! We are done with compromising our ideals! We are done with triangulation and fear based politics! ...Change will not happen by choosing a candidate entirely entrenched in the dysfunction of the past."

-Tim Robbins at Washington Square Park New York Bernie Rally March 13, 2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC-ZCD3gE1Y
 

Mountains: The 'Bernie Effect', Berniecrats, Millennials Rising

This is a long technical post discussing the effect of the recent Presidential caucus campaign on voter registration in Whatcom County and Washington state and some of the implications of that surge in voter rolls for the November 2016 General Election. More complete technical paper is available (PDF) - RMF 

"the most honest candidate there is..."

Rosario Dawson, Spike Lee, and Residente rock the Bernie Bronx Rally. Residente gives an incredible speech:  " I support Bernie Sanders because he is the most honest candidate there is."
(Source:  http://www.c-span.org/video/?407458-1/bernie-sanders-campaign-rally-south-bronx )
    

The Bernie Effect in Whatcom County

Note: This is for Whatcom County voterdb data only. For WA state data on "The Bernie Effect" please see links here.

The Bernie Effect: Change totals for voter registration are up 335% in the first three months of 2016 over  the same period in 2015. This may include as many as 4,295 new registrations.  Click to enlarge.  Most data below  the break is for "Registration Date" changes for the period January 1 - March 30, 2016.

"WA Democrat Delegate Math"

On Saturday, I was the PCC  (Precinct Caucus Chair) for my Democrat precinct. Below are some of my thoughts. They might be helpful because Wyoming, Guam, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, North Dakota all have caucuses left to go.

For me, with a very large precinct (Precinct 208-  1200 plus registered voters, 166 caucus votes, 10 allotted delegates), everything worked like clockwork. The experience was well planned, well administrated, no personal contention, excellent helpers, etc.  I want to really thank the generous and energetic Democrat volunteers, tech help from WCC and my excellent Tally Clerk and Secretary.  I didn't get the in-house training. I just memorized the 28 page Precinct Caucus  script. I only had four days because my PCO  had just moved so I was busy reading and thinking and simulating votes before Saturday morning. 

However, I had tables, my laptop, auditorium projector, wireless mic.  I kept the script on the big screen and also a spreadsheet I had designed to simulate delegate math.  I think it is important as a PCC to be funny, humble, helpful, honest, fair, ask for help, let people speak. We did four rounds of Bernie v. Hillary.  We had to because it takes a while to count 166 sheets! Our Tally Clerk  actually numbered the corners sequentially of each voter's sheet she received as if she had been trained as a database professional! People really enjoyed speaking. I really had a great though exhausting morning. One subject that has come up is discussion afterwards is precinct caucus math. Below is my take on this math and the delegate selection process.

My Sunday with Bernie Believers

Bernie Believers line up early Sunday morning.

Early Sunday morning my accomplice and I car pooled from Bellingham to Bernie's Seattle rally at the Key Arena . A friend of our family had made it to the head of the line before 6:00 AM and posted as such on Facebook. "I think I can be at your house by eight," my fellow Bernie supporter said.  By 9:30 we had made Key Arena and were standing in a line probably about 200 ' x 6 people deep in the light rain. That line would quickly grow much longer. It was 2 1/2 hours before before the noon admission and you might think those hours would be an arduous wait, but then you probably have never stood in a crowd of Bernie Believers before.

Democrat Caucus Locations for Saturday, March 26, 2016 9:30 AM Registration! 10:00 AM Start!

3:05 PM 3/19/2016 Update! Best links for finding your precinct and your  March 26th caucus site:

• http://pollingplaces.democrats.org/
• https://www.demcaucus.com/register

These links may also be informative for all of us Bernie Believers:

• https://vote.berniesanders.com/
• http://whatcomforbernie.com/
• https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zPrEbjVkRCzQ.kTGDlekyJebU

All this week long the 103 E. Holly Bernie office needs your help canvassing and phone banking. I just talked with the Bernie campaign representatives there and the focus is on making sure they get people going to the caucus and involved in the process. They need precinct captains. If you are willing to volunteer or help, make sure to make it to 103 E. Holly. There are a lot of Bernie groups on Facebook, but the official Bernie office needs your help canvassing the neighborhoods! Bring your smart phone to do this so you can download the MiniVAN app. If you are coming to the office to phone bank, bring your laptop, smart phone, chargers. You can also phone bank for Bernie at home. Be Ready for next Saturday: The March 26th Democrat Caucus!!

voterdb data as 03/16/2016

Age, Gender, City, Zip, LastUpdateDate, Status Reason, Ballot Counted for Last Five Primaries below the break.

Please Caucus!

Dear Readers:

On March 26th, the Whatcom Democrats will host this year's Democratic Caucus. This is your chance to caucus for your presidential candidate! Yes, you need to be there unless you filled out a surrogate form by March 18th. Otherwise, you need to be there  and stay there to cast your votes.  Make sure your address and registration is up to date at http://myvote.wa.gov , fill out the Democratic caucus precinct sign-in, find your caucus site  and come ready to debate, paricipate and cast votes! Be there early, doors will open after 9:00 AM! Should you want to do more, you can join the party, volunteer for the Democratic Party or you can volunteer for Bernie. You can probably volunteer for Hillary as well, but I will let you find your way to that :-).  Team Bernie is hosting two days of action today and tomorrow. Please see more after the break below.   Please Caucus!!!

Phone Banking for Bernie Sanders

I sat through the phone bank training for Benie Sanders:  https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/phonebank .  They have 15 minute interactive training going on all the day long and they could really use you for GOTV messages for the next two days. The March 15 (!Tuesday!) primaries are 691 delegates:

• Florida:214
• Illinois:156
• Ohio:143 delegates 
• North Carolina:107
• Missouri :71

These are the 3, 5, 7, 9 and 18 largest states . Together, they represent over 61M people or about 20% of the U.S. population. I am going to practice the script, acquaint with Bernie issues and start calling.   Person to person makes the biggest difference in politics. North Carolina and Florida are the last and perhaps the most important southern states for Democrats because they are large and Democrats win them sometimes. However, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio are critical as well. More information is here: https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/march15/

For those of you who haven't done phone banking before, you will probably need a laptop or tablet, dedicated phone line or cell phone, cell buds or headset for your analog phone, comfortable chair. It seems daunting when you first start and then the script just falls into place. Sticking to the script and seeming authentic isn't as hard as it seems after your first ten calls.  It is good practice talking and working with others.  This is something that is critical right now you can do if you have the time.

The failed "Southern Strategy" of the 2016 Democrats

Click to Enlarge: Sum of all Democrat votes divided into CVAP_EST 2014

Code for this post. [1,2]

We have to ask ourselves at some point: What are the mechanisms for the suppression of the black vote in the South and how do we define it? Is it any different than in regions outside the South? The Democrats lost 910 legislative seats nationwide between 2009 - 2014. This happened here in WA as well. But it *really* happened in the South where literally dozens of legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican. 

Super Tuesday Data

Note: Fixed Vermont totals - RMF 1:09 PM 3/2/2016
Super Tuesday Data. For these 12 states, some data is incomplete or incomparable for various reasons: Dem caucus held later for AK, Republican Caucus will not be held at all for CO, all precincts were not 100%  reporting as of this morning, MN,CO,AK held caucuses, not primaries etc. But here are some interesting factoids:

• 2.7M more votes for Republicans than Democrats in these states primaries/caucuses as opposed to the 1.9M for Romney than Obama in GE2012
• These 12 primaries/caucuses generated (5.9M(D) +  8.5M(R)) = 14.5M votes.  In the 2012GE these same states generated 32M votes, 14.7M for Obama alone.
• Only MA,MN (Caucus),VT had more Democrats vote than Republicans
• Reputedly, AR had more Republicans vote than Democrats for the first time since the Reconstruction
• The states here showing some "swing" potential are Virginia,Oklahoma,Colorado. Fundamentally a (complicated) southern state, Virginia actually went to Obama in 2012 as did Florida.Oklahoma went Republican in 2012, Colorado went Democrat. Both came out for Bernie Saunders in this primary.

If you see errors, let me know. Click to enlarge charts. Charts and data compare GE 2012 with Primary 2016:

Data from:
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=2012
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/01/super-tuesday-trump-clinton-sanders-cruz-rubio

Register to VOTE!!...then...Sign In to your Democratic Precinct Caucus!

After you have made sure you are a registered voter at myvote.wa.gov, you can fill out, print and sign your *DEMOCRATIC PRECINCT CAUCUS SIGN IN* : https://www.demcaucus.com/register. I found on Win7/Chromium that I could save to it to PDF if I couldn't print it immediately. That put me in the system, gave me my primary location, my precinct ID, my VAN ID and let the Democrats know I was coming! You eventually need to print it out and sign it and bring it with you to your caucus location!

Whatcom County Voter History Database as of 1/27/2016

Editor's note: Are you a WA candidate that needs information like the data and analysis below for your campaign? I am considering marketing my data analytic services this year. If you are interested, you can find me from my blogger profile. -RMF

The data above is from a 1/27/2016 voterdb history.  On the left, the rainbow background and the fading shadows in front of it show the per precinct difference between registered voters and participation in the GE 2014 and GE 2015 balloting. (The most recent voter birth years are not included.) Curiously, despite heavy registration of those under 65, voter turnout has collapsed as it heads toward the youngest birth years in Whatcom County. Click on the graphs to enlarge.

The dense band of mean birth years of registered voters between years 1960 and 1970 is a statistical mirage brought about by heavy registration of both boomers and millenials on either side. GenXrs are the bluish trough (far top left chart) between prewars  + boomers and millenials, + perhaps Gen "Z". At right, a relatively high SD per precinct helps hide an accurate assessment of voter age in Whatcom County. More age statistics are below. Click on the graphs to enlarge.

All school and fire Levies pass. A look back at November 2015

Updated 2/10/2016: All School and Fire levies pass. 32% turnout with 40K voting.
Today (February 9th) there is a special election for school  and fire district financing throughout the county ... Remember to Vote. Drop Boxes are placed throughout the county. If you mail your ballot, it must be postmarked (with stamp) by February 9th. If you are around downtown Bellingham, there will be a drive through drop box near the court house open until 8 p.m.  You can check your voter status, update your address, or register to vote online in WA at MyVote.wa.gov .  Some Charts from the 2015 Election are below the break.

The Death of LaVoy Finicum