Cross County Active Voter Migrations: GE2016 to GE2017

 42,890 active voters moved counties between 11.2016 and 12.2017.   Click to enlarge the chart above to show what the top 20 migration flows looked liked. Thanks to consultant Kyle Walker for the clear instructions on using the networkD3 library.

"LCD" and LD Projections: 2018

These are "LCD" projections for 2018. Each LD part is coupled with their CD match (e.g. 42_1, 42_2) to give a more realistic picture of what races are competitive and what are not based on 2016 Presidential Votes. When I look at it this way, only LDs 6,10,17,24,26,44 represent competitive races. (e.g. margins less than 5% for the LD.) Some 'LCD's are competitive but the LD race is drowned out by the strength of one party in the opposing LCD(s). Not all LDs are split between CDs. The more dense, urban LDs in Seattle are often encompassed by one CD.

WCD 2018 Election Results

In the 2018 Whatcom Conservation District election,  Alan Chapman (endorsed by both the Riveter's Collection and the Whatcom Democrats) appears to have defeated incumbent Larry Helm by 31 votes. Last year, Heather Christianson defeated Suzanne Snyder. Click on the chart to enlarge. View this data on a wide screen. Candidate statements here.

March 2018: Data For Counties, LD and CD.

For all of you who are thinking about filing for office in May: WA VRDB  and OFM GIS data by County, LD, CD with some snapshots of data are below the break. Click to enlarge the images.

Republicans encroaching on COB precincts?

Below are two bar plots that show Republican voters are making some gains in COB and other liberal precincts since 2016. This data looks at marginal percentage differences for 87 (February Special Election) precincts between:

• 2016: Clinton vs. Trump
• 2017: Buchanan vs. Robinson
• 2018: BPS501_Approved vs. BPS501 Rejected.

These elections had

• completely different turnouts
• precincts changes between 2016 and 2017
• partial precincts for some of the February Special Election 
• and (for convenience) I am using 02/2018 active registrants total for all elections. 

I am wary of narratives that show Republican strength decreasing either here or across the nation. The Republican model for securing a favorable electorate looks much different than the Democratic model: social conservatives, quiet Americans, silent majorities may not march in the streets as much, but they may well meet at church every Sunday.  This doesn't mean Republicans aren't winning votes or that Democratic activism isn't alienating swing voters.  Click to enlarge chart.