Friday, December 26, 2014

How the Democrats can keep from losing next time: Part I Understanding Voter Updates

Last updates per year for active registrants as of 12/19/2014.
Some of the Age and Precinct charting code updated  12:55 PM 12/29/2014 -RMF
Complete for now. Find Part II here -RMF. R Code for Part I  here. R Code for Part II here.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

"Why the Democrats Lost: Part II" : Analysis of 2012,2013,2014 MatchBacks by Voting Age

The data from this analysis follows from Part I. The 2012 vote for Obama and Cantwell contained a much higher percentage of youth voters than the 2014 vote for the 42nd legislative seats.  Whether these youth votes were suppressed, discouraged, or uninterested in voting for  the Democrat candidates in 2014 is unknown. I will hazard this question:  Satpal Sidhu did the best of the Democrat  legislative candidates. He had the narrowest margin of loss.  Was it because he was perceived as more pro business or more moderate? Or was it because he was a person color who attracted more young Hispanic and Native American votes? Or both?  R Code is here.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

"Why the Democrats Lost: Part I" : Analysis of 2012,2013,2014 MatchBacks by Voting Year

The easiest conclusion is that 2012 Cantwell and Obama voters did not turn out for the Democrats in 2014.  It might be possible to conclude that the Republicans energized their base to vote more for their legislative candidates in 2014 than they did for their county candidates in 2013. Click on the charts below to enlarge. R Code is here.

Friday, December 5, 2014

A Final MatchBack analysis for General Election 2014

16,845 42nd LD Precinct Votes "left on the table" from those precincts with over 300 'not voting'. 32K voters registered in the 42nd LD did not participate.  Click on chart too enlarge.
Statistics below paint a dismal picture of participation in the 2014 General Election. 48,205 registered Whatcom County voters did not participate in the 2014 General Election including 31,938 from the LD 42nd where this year's critical races were held.  Arguably, many of the top 30 'not voting'  precincts shown above would have voted for Democrats. R Code here.

Monday, December 1, 2014

A really intriguing work on vote fraud: "Code Red"

CODE RED: Computerized Election Theft and The New American Century by Simon, Jonathan on Kindle for Android!