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Sunday, May 1, 2016

Part I Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Birth Years of Registrants - 04/01/2016





Click on Charts to Enlarge

Part II Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Registrants Partitioned by CC,LD,CD intersections - 04/01/2016

The top eleven most registered counties are 84% of the state's registered voters. Active WA voterdb registrants from County (CC), Congressional District (CD), and Legislative Districts(LD)  'partitions' are keyed and sorted by count, registration year, last year voted in the tables below the break. . Additional 'mixed queries' are far below. A 'partition' here I define as the unique number of active registrants that result from the (geographic) intersections of particular CC,CD or LD districts. Currently, there are 141 such unique partitions in WA, however the bottom nine exists simply because county voter rolls have not assigned CD and or LD or both to some small number of voters.

Monday, April 25, 2016

Sites Discussing Election Fraud

"We are not able to elect Bernie because there is so much of this fraud and voter suppression and rigging and caucus cheating going on. So it seems like magical thinking to continue to go forward with this campaign and not address the issue, to not fight the battle that will actually cost the election."
- Debbie Lusignan ("The Sane Progressive")

Update on "The Bernie Effect" in Whatcom County

New or reactivated registrations are increasingly younger and more urban in Whatcom County. Click to Enlarge.


Density Curves. Left: Birth Years of Voters who have left the voter rolls in the last 17 months. Right: Birth Year of Voters who have joined voter rolls in the last 17 months. Click to Enlarge.
4,962 net voters have been added to the Whatcom County voting rolls in the last 17 months. 12,428 voters have left or been marked inactive. 17,390 have registered themselves as active. (Yes. That is stupendous number for Whatcom County.) We are adding almost 10 registrants per day.  These registrants would be a mix of original registrations and re-activations  or address changes. The last 17 months have been responsible for 3.9% increase in the voter database since 11/22/2014.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Tim Robbins gives 'em hell for Bernie!!

"Bernie is not the obligatory progressive that will keep the left in line until the presumptive moderative nominee emerges. Bernie is not the Democrat party insider that will bow down to the elites in the party. We are done with that! We are done with compromising our ideals! We are done with triangulation and fear based politics! ...Change will not happen by choosing a candidate entirely entrenched in the dysfunction of the past."

-Tim Robbins at Washington Square Park New York Bernie Rally March 13, 2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC-ZCD3gE1Y
 

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Mountains: The 'Bernie Effect', Berniecrats, Millennials Rising

This is a long technical post discussing the effect of the recent Presidential caucus campaign on voter registration in Whatcom County and Washington state and some of the implications of that surge in voter rolls for the November 2016 General Election. More complete technical paper is available (PDF) - RMF 

Saturday, April 2, 2016

"the most honest candidate there is..."

Rosario Dawson, Spike Lee, and Residente rock the Bernie Bronx Rally. Residente gives an incredible speech:  " I support Bernie Sanders because he is the most honest candidate there is."
(Source:  http://www.c-span.org/video/?407458-1/bernie-sanders-campaign-rally-south-bronx )
    

Friday, April 1, 2016

The Bernie Effect...


The Bernie Effect: Change totals for voter registration are up 335% in the first three months of 2016 over  the same period in 2015. This may include as many as 4,295 new registrations.  Click to enlarge.  Most data below  the break is for "Registration Date" changes for the period January 1 - March 30, 2016.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

"WA Democrat Delegate Math"

On Saturday, I was the PCC  (Precinct Caucus Chair) for my Democrat precinct. Below are some of my thoughts. They might be helpful because Wyoming, Guam, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, North Dakota all have caucuses left to go.

For me, with a very large precinct (Precinct 208-  1200 plus registered voters, 166 caucus votes, 10 allotted delegates), everything worked like clockwork. The experience was well planned, well administrated, no personal contention, excellent helpers, etc.  I want to really thank the generous and energetic Democrat volunteers, tech help from WCC and my excellent Tally Clerk and Secretary.  I didn't get the in-house training. I just memorized the 28 page Precinct Caucus  script. I only had four days because my PCO  had just moved so I was busy reading and thinking and simulating votes before Saturday morning. 

However, I had tables, my laptop, auditorium projector, wireless mic.  I kept the script on the big screen and also a spreadsheet I had designed to simulate delegate math.  I think it is important as a PCC to be funny, humble, helpful, honest, fair, ask for help, let people speak. We did four rounds of Bernie v. Hillary.  We had to because it takes a while to count 166 sheets! Our Tally Clerk  actually numbered the corners sequentially of each voter's sheet she received as if she had been trained as a database professional! People really enjoyed speaking. I really had a great though exhausting morning. One subject that has come up is discussion afterwards is precinct caucus math. Below is my take on this math and the delegate selection process.

Monday, March 21, 2016

My Sunday with Bernie Believers

Bernie Believers line up early Sunday morning.
Early Sunday morning my accomplice and I car pooled from Bellingham to Bernie's Seattle rally at the Key Arena . A friend of our family had made it to the head of the line before 6:00 AM and posted as such on Facebook. "I think I can be at your house by eight," my fellow Bernie supporter said.  By 9:30 we had made Key Arena and were standing in a line probably about 200 ' x 6 people deep in the light rain. That line would quickly grow much longer. It was 2 1/2 hours before before the noon admission and you might think those hours would be an arduous wait, but then you probably have never stood in a crowd of Bernie Believers before.

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Democrat Caucus Locations for Saturday, March 26, 2016 9:30 AM Registration! 10:00 AM Start!

3:05 PM 3/19/2016 Update! Best links for finding your precinct and your  March 26th caucus site:

These links may also be informative for all of us Bernie Believers:
All this week long the 103 E. Holly Bernie office needs your help canvassing and phone banking. I just talked with the Bernie campaign representatives there and the focus is on making sure they get people going to the caucus and involved in the process. They need precinct captains. If you are willing to volunteer or help, make sure to make it to 103 E. Holly. There are a lot of Bernie groups on Facebook, but the official Bernie office needs your help canvassing the neighborhoods! Bring your smart phone to do this so you can download the MiniVAN app. If you are coming to the office to phone bank, bring your laptop, smart phone, chargers. You can also phone bank for Bernie at home. Be Ready for next Saturday: The March 26th Democrat Caucus!!

Friday, March 18, 2016

voterdb data as 03/16/2016

Age, Gender, City, Zip, LastUpdateDate, Status Reason, Ballot Counted for Last Five Primaries below the break.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Please Caucus!

Dear Readers:

On March 26th, the Whatcom Democrats will host this year's Democratic Caucus. This is your chance to caucus for your presidential candidate! Yes, you need to be there unless you filled out a surrogate form by March 18th. Otherwise, you need to be there  and stay there to cast your votes.  Make sure your address and registration is up to date at http://myvote.wa.gov , fill out the Democratic caucus precinct sign-in, find your caucus site  and come ready to debate, paricipate and cast votes! Be there early, doors will open after 9:00 AM! Should you want to do more, you can join the party, volunteer for the Democratic Party or you can volunteer for Bernie. You can probably volunteer for Hillary as well, but I will let you find your way to that :-).  Team Bernie is hosting two days of action today and tomorrow. Please see more after the break below.   Please Caucus!!!

Monday, March 14, 2016

Phone Banking for Bernie Sanders

I sat through the phone bank training for Benie Sanders:  https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/phonebank .  They have 15 minute interactive training going on all the day long and they could really use you for GOTV messages for the next two daysThe March 15 (!Tuesday!) primaries are 691 delegates:

  • Florida:214
  • Illinois:156
  • Ohio:143 delegates 
  • North Carolina:107
  • Missouri :71
These are the 3, 5, 7, 9 and 18 largest states . Together, they represent over 61M people or about 20% of the U.S. populationI am going to practice the script, acquaint with Bernie issues and start calling.   Person to person makes the biggest difference in politics. North Carolina and Florida are the last and perhaps the most important southern states for Democrats because they are large and Democrats win them sometimes. However, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio are critical as well. More information is here: https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/march15/

For those of you who haven't done phone banking before, you will probably need a laptop or tablet, dedicated phone line or cell phone, cell buds or headset for your analog phone, comfortable chair. It seems daunting when you first start and then the script just falls into place. Sticking to the script and seeming authentic isn't as hard as it seems after your first ten calls.  It is good practice talking and working with others.  This is something that is critical right now you can do if you have the time.

Saturday, March 12, 2016

The failed "Southern Strategy" of the 2016 Democrats

Click to Enlarge: Sum of all Democrat votes divided into CVAP_EST 2014

Code for this post. [1,2]

We have to ask ourselves at some point: What are the mechanisms for the suppression of the black vote in the South and how do we define it? Is it any different than in regions outside the South? The Democrats lost 910 legislative seats nationwide between 2009 - 2014. This happened here in WA as well. But it *really* happened in the South where literally dozens of legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican. 

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Super Tuesday Data


Note: Fixed Vermont totals - RMF 1:09 PM 3/2/2016
Super Tuesday Data. For these 12 states, some data is incomplete or incomparable for various reasons: Dem caucus held later for AK, Republican Caucus will not be held at all for CO, all precincts were not 100%  reporting as of this morning, MN,CO,AK held caucuses, not primaries etc. But here are some interesting factoids:
  • 2.7M more votes for Republicans than Democrats in these states primaries/caucuses as opposed to the 1.9M for Romney than Obama in GE2012
  • These 12 primaries/caucuses generated (5.9M(D) +  8.5M(R)) = 14.5M votes.  In the 2012GE these same states generated 32M votes, 14.7M for Obama alone.
  • Only MA,MN (Caucus),VT had more Democrats vote than Republicans
  • Reputedly, AR had more Republicans vote than Democrats for the first time since the Reconstruction
  • The states here showing some "swing" potential are Virginia,Oklahoma,Colorado. Fundamentally a (complicated) southern state, Virginia actually went to Obama in 2012 as did Florida.Oklahoma went Republican in 2012, Colorado went Democrat. Both came out for Bernie Saunders in this primary.
If you see errors, let me know. Click to enlarge charts. Charts and data compare GE 2012 with Primary 2016:

Data from:
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/showelection.php?year=2012
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/01/super-tuesday-trump-clinton-sanders-cruz-rubio

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Register to VOTE!!...then...Sign In to your Democratic Precinct Caucus!



After you have made sure you are a registered voter at myvote.wa.gov, you can fill out, print and sign your *DEMOCRATIC PRECINCT CAUCUS SIGN IN* : https://www.demcaucus.com/register. I found on Win7/Chromium that I could save to it to PDF if I couldn't print it immediately. That put me in the system, gave me my primary location, my precinct ID, my VAN ID and let the Democrats know I was coming! You eventually need to print it out and sign it and bring it with you to your caucus location!

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Whatcom County Voter History Database as of 1/27/2016

Editor's note: Are you a WA candidate that needs information like the data and analysis below for your campaign? I am considering marketing my data analytic services this year. If you are interested, you can find me from my blogger profile. -RMF

The data above is from a 1/27/2016 voterdb history.  On the left, the rainbow background and the fading shadows in front of it show the per precinct difference between registered voters and participation in the GE 2014 and GE 2015 balloting. (The most recent voter birth years are not included.) Curiously, despite heavy registration of those under 65, voter turnout has collapsed as it heads toward the youngest birth years in Whatcom County. Click on the graphs to enlarge.
The dense band of mean birth years of registered voters between years 1960 and 1970 is a statistical mirage brought about by heavy registration of both boomers and millenials on either side. GenXrs are the bluish trough (far top left chart) between prewars  + boomers and millenials, + perhaps Gen "Z". At right, a relatively high SD per precinct helps hide an accurate assessment of voter age in Whatcom County. More age statistics are below. Click on the graphs to enlarge.

Monday, February 8, 2016

All school and fire Levies pass. A look back at November 2015

Updated 2/10/2016: All School and Fire levies pass. 32% turnout with 40K voting.
Today (February 9th) there is a special election for school  and fire district financing throughout the county ... Remember to Vote. Drop Boxes are placed throughout the county. If you mail your ballot, it must be postmarked (with stamp) by February 9th. If you are around downtown Bellingham, there will be a drive through drop box near the court house open until 8 p.m.  You can check your voter status, update your address, or register to vote online in WA at MyVote.wa.gov .  Some Charts from the 2015 Election are below the break.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Defense Indexes vs Mass Shooting Database >= 14 'Dead + Injured'

In my last post, I established that the FBI will complete the three year period (2013 - 2015) with ~64M NICS background checks for firearms purchase.  In this post, I look at the relationship between two Defense  index/exchanges traded over the same period. Specifically, I am interested in the whether there is a relationship  between high volume "spree shootings" and equity increases for defense companies. If widespread publicity of spree shootings encourages Americans to purchase extraordinary volumes of weapons, does this in turn equal greater purchase of defense stock? R code here.

Here are the eleven events with (Dead + Injured) >=  14 mass shooting incidents according to Mass Shooting Tracker. I have left out shooter names. Some of these events will be recognizable by location:

Monday, December 14, 2015

AR-15s, Shopping Carts and Gun Ownership in America

Update: December 2015 and 2015 the year broke records which rendered my 2.3M projection for December short. 3.3M NICS  checks were completed for December 2015 bring the yearly totally 23M. Both numbers are records. I will update my projected  December data at some point. - RMF

Last week's cover for the "New Yorker" shows a happy, clean cut, young couple picking up their AR-15 (?) with their milk and hand grenades in their shopping cart at a local super mart.  2.2M NICS FBI  firearm checks were completed in Novermber 2015. After the December totals come in, it looks like we will have over 23M NICS checks for 2015, an all time annual record. Ironically, the day of the San Bernardino shooting (12/2), the NYT announced we broke a record for single day guns sales on the last Black Friday. If we don't already, we probably now have more firearms in America than cars. This would make sense because more people now die from firearms than car accidents in America.  I made a quick projection of the 221M NICS gun checks in America for the last 17 years. Between 2013 - 2015, 29% of all gun checks for the last 17 years will have been processed. I projected December 2015 at 2.3M.:

 (21093273 + 20968547 + (19827376 + 2300000)) / (222363898 - 892840)
2013 + 2014 + projected(2015)  / (eighteen year total  - first incomplete year)
[1] 0.2898311

For the three years 2013 - 2015, there will be (projected) 64,189,196 (~64M) NICS FBI gun checks processed. If all of those checks were approved, that three year total would be equivalent to 20% of our 315M population.  More data on NICS Operations can be found here

This is a (table) matrix from the data found here.  December 2015 data projected. Click to enlarge tables and charts.