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Monday, October 15, 2018

How GE2018 Could Play out in WM,SK,SJ,IS. Part I: The Districts

Post under Construction. Last update: 9:48 AM 10/16/2018 . This post is best seen on a wide screen desktop.-RMF

In the table below, we can see combined GE 2016 results for Clinton+Stein (CS) or Trump+Johnson (TJ) and Primary 2018 results for MariaCantwell (MC) or SusanHutchison (SH). Skagit 10 (light blue), Whatcom 42-2 (dark blue) and 40th LD (yellow) are critical for Democrat success in the four county area. In reality, only WM 40-2, WM 42-2, SK 40-1 and SJ 40-2 are sure bets for 'blue' in a heavy turnout GE.  This makes LD 40  + WM 42-2 (North Bellingham) the liberal anchors in a four county area that could turn red with a stronger Republican turnout. This helps put the "double Mike P." strategy in perspective. Petrish and Peetoom can't really beat Lekanoff and Frazey, but they can help Seguine (R) beat Hazelrigg-Hernandez (D) and also help the 42LD Rs in their customary cruise over the 42LD Ds. No votes can be taken for granted in this year's four county election that mostly pits middle-aged Republican men versus progressive Democratic women. The primary went mostly to the Democrats in Whatcom County. However, turnout is likely to resemble GE 2016 this November due to the new stampless ballot and an unruly, "hyper energized" electorate now chafing at their electoral bits nationwide!  Let the balloting begin!

    CD LD County    CS    TJ    MC    SH   StatusGE  StatusPRI
 1:  1 42     WM 21683 30582 11763 11655  Light Red Light Blue
 2:  2 10     IS 21767 20784 13552  7612 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 3:  2 40     WM 25079  8355 12810  2997  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 4:  2 42     WM 14828  5266  8181  1742  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 5:  2 40     SK  9925  8994  6013  3135 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 6:  2 40     SJ  7639  3090  4780  1197  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 7:  2 10     SK  4843  4592  2913  1749 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 8:  1 10     SK  3909  3704  2270  1295 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 9:  1 40     SK  4129  3354  1862   935 Light Blue  Dark Blue
10:  2 39     SK  2547  3637  1385  1074  Light Red Light Blue
11:  1 39     SK  2283  3441  1374  1046   Dark Red Light Blue
12:  1 40     WM  1487  1117   811   474 Light Blue  Dark Blue

In the charts below, black lines are Congressional Districts (CD1 & CD2). Red lines are Legislative Districts 10, 39, 40,  & 42.  Blue scale for precincts is the Clinton+Stein percentage. Note that Clinton+Stein vs. Trump+Johnson doesn't give us the complete picture for GE 2016 since there were so many (un-tabulated) write-ins presumably for Bernie.  For more data, please see 'Notes' far below. Click to enlarge the charts!

Sunday, September 30, 2018

Election URLs and Links

GE 2018 Election URLs and Links

These are some sites useful for the November 6th, 2018 General Election in Whatcom County and the four county area of Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties.

Saturday, September 29, 2018

Summed Voting histories for the four county area (WM,SK,IS,SJ)

For the four county area (WM,SK,IS,SJ), we have the following totals for Primary 2018 for the August VRDB:

[1] 128303 # Active and Voted
[1] 154465 # Active and Not Voted

I sum the voting histories (per voter) of each of these groups below. Note that the Voted vs. Not Voted charts are approximately 2x in scale.  This post will probably need a wide screen.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Metrics and Charts for Mail-in vs. DropBox by WA County for 2017 and 2018

The chart immediately below represents a comparison of mail in ballots for Pri2018 , Pri2017, GE2017 for the top 10 WA counties excluding King which is shown far below. This data is from the state's election reconciliation reports.  In a previous post on Gender and the Vote I discuss groups of voters by their recent voting history.  Here, I look simply at two ballot return methods (Mail-in vs. DropBox) to help determine if the new "stampless ballot" is enticing new and old populations to vote more than usual. Note that it may be difficult to separate voter motives and habits by ballot return methodologies. But the long purple bars of PRI2018 in chart below, bars that outstretch both PRI2017(blue) and GE2017(red), indicate mail-in balloting is big hit. Click to enlarge Charts.

Mail-in Totals for Top Ten Counties

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Charts from 4 County (IS,SK,SJ,WM) Area

Charts from GE2016 and PRI2018 results from the four county area:
  • Island
  • Skagit
  • San Juan
  • Whatcom

Monday, September 17, 2018

1 Days Until Ballots Drop

This October 8th deadline for online voter registration has now passed. If your address is not current @ myvote.wa.gov please call your local elections office to see whether you can still vote in the November 6th election. For election offices in the  four county area, please see  these links for Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties.  Today (10/17/2018) gives us 20 days until the November 6th general election and 1 days until ballots drop in the mail for WA state on October 19.  You should have received your voter's pamphlet by now. Check your voter registration if you have not. Ballots will drop two days earlier for Whatcom County on October 17th. Some important election deadlines and information for voters are below:
These deadlines and other information can be seen at http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election  (Whatcom County) and at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections (WA SOS).  In general, WA requires registration at a specific address 29 days before the election. New laws take effect in June of 2019. See RCW 29A.08.140 @ http://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=29A.08.140.  For further questions about your registration status in Whatcom County, please visit myvote.wa.gov or contact Whatcom County Elections. For election offices in the  four county area, please see  these links for Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties. More number and details after the break...

Saturday, September 15, 2018

Advice for PCOs and volunteers seeking data and instructions

If you are a PCO (Precinct Committee Officer) or campaign volunteer, probably the best place to seek data and marching orders for the 2018 midterms is your local county or state party headquarters. If you are in Whatcom County, contact either:
If you are not in Whatcom County, try to find your local party headquarters for your county. You could also visit the State Party sites:
This blog is an independent site with no party alliances. Although I worked with the Democratic Party for 2017, I have not been a member since November 2017. The data on this page is essentially non-partisan. If you are a candidate and/or data professional looking for data sources outside your party's data you can try some of the links I have posted here:

http://www.bellinghampoliticsandeconomics.com/2018/06/general-data-advise-for-candidates.html

Unless, you are a data professional, it is probably not a good idea to second guess your party's instructions.  If you wish to support your party during the election period, now is a probably good time to commit to that support, seek training, get to know your party, etc. This support usually includes: canvassing precincts, making donations, phone calling, stapling flyers, etc. It is not difficult work, but each party does it with different methodologies and data sources.

My personal advice to volunteers and campaign managers based on my previous experience is as follows:

[For Volunteers:]
Don't do any campaign work you don't feel comfortable with. Your parties have some responsibility to provide you with instructions, materials, training and technology  that you need to be productive.  However, please remember most party officials are volunteers just like yourself. Apply yourself with flexibility and initiative.

[For Party leaders:]
Try to free your volunteers  from the  "the internal politics" of the party itself. Make your volunteer assignments simple, straightforward and without litmus tests.  Remember that volunteers come in many shapes, sizes, and belief systems. Be clear and easy to understand with your instruction sets.

[The Vast "Purpality"]
There is evidence for both the United States and the state of WA that much of the potential vote is essentially independent and that many precinct residents are quite possibly some shade of purple rather than red or blue. Looking at the results for your precinct and county elections can help you visualize your local neighborhood's place in the blue to red spectrum of our vast "purpality".  I try to remember that the largest bloc of  voters in the United States for almost all non-presidential election years is not a particular race, gender, party or class. The largest bloc of voters in the United States for any election is almost always those who did not vote! Your job as a campaign volunteer is to convince others to vote for your candidate and perhaps your party. Civility, kindness, grace, and respect are your best tools to complete that mission. Patience and tolerance are your best tools to survive your mission.

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Gender and the Vote in WA

Updated on 10/10/2018.  Still under construction. 

Voter Histories for Primary 2018 are due first week in September and will allow for Primary 2018 to be incorporated into this post. The tables below want a wide screen. Gender is a such a widespread and binary classifier that understanding it's significance in terms of blue/red, young/old, white/POC appears difficult. That women register and vote more than men is an easy insight. Who women vote for in what counties and why they vote is more difficult.

To give a simple example relevant to the 2018 midterms: It is possible that the new stampless ballot could increase conservative votes among women of low motility and busy schedules in red counties. There is some evidence that partisanship of gender  is more clearly defined when gender is considered as a function of location, age, religion, race, class, income, party allegiance and education levels. Peering into a wide scale 'binary classifier' like gender and gender's relationship to other electoral co-variants is proving to be more that a weekend's task.  The tables below want a wide screen.

Sunday, August 26, 2018

Projecting CD, LD, LCD results for 2018 from 2016 Presidential Results

My first inference is that GE 2018 midterms in WA will be highly reflective of GE 2016 Presidential votes in party preference and volume. My predictions: Increased volumes of female voters and increased volumes of "stampless voters" will make the GE 2018 midterms in WA record breaking in volume.  If you want the spreadsheets for this data, email me: Tell me who you are  and why you need that data. Click to enlarge charts.  -RMF 11:16 AM 8/26/2018.

Wednesday, August 22, 2018

Tables and Charts from the Final Primary 2018 Whatcom County matchback

Below are some tables and charts from the final Whatcom County matchback. Will need wide screen to display correctly.

Monday, August 20, 2018

42nd Primary Data

This post will need a wide screen and is probably not viewable on some phones. I am using Whatcom County results from 08/15/2018 but will update with certified vote totals after 08/20/2018. 

Saturday, August 18, 2018

Richey vs. Erb in the Whatcom 2018 Primary

 I am analyzing the precinct differences between the all county races and the apparent conflict between precinct results and precinct correlations in similar populations of voters. This post will need a wide screen and is probably not viewable on some phones. I am using Whatcom County results from 08/15/2018 but will update with certified vote totals after 08/20/2018. 


James Erb ~8K loss to Eric Richey in the primary was distributed by falloff percentage across many precincts. In the chart above,there were ~4K less votes in the Prosecutors race vs. the County at Large Race. In the chart below, the ('lowess') trend line representing James Erb precinct votes increases dramatically as precinct falloff in the Prosecutor's race decreases. Votes are scaled by dividing by 10 to match the 'falloff percentage". Click to enlarge the graphs.



Tuesday, August 14, 2018

The effect of the "stampless ballot" in WA State

The current WA State turnout percentage for Primary 2018 will be one of the highest for the 19 Primary elections since year 2000. The 1.7M votes will be the largest number of votes ever returned for a primary election in WA State. My initial inference is that the new stampless ballots are bringing an entire new voter pool into play. WA as a state is beset by both by rural poverty and independent voters. The nearest comparable Legislative District election year is a Presidential year (2016):

(Primary2018) - (Primary 2016)
1710872 - 1421841
[1] 289031

(Primary2018) / (Primary 2016)
1710872/1421841
[1] 1.203279

A twenty percent increase in votes for General Election 2018 because of stampless ballots means an entirely new voter profile for WA State.

Thursday, August 9, 2018

Charts

Deb, Rud, Pink, or Ballew... I have some precinct charts for you.

Sunday, August 5, 2018

Primary 2018 Matchback Sequences


Update 7:01 PM 8/21/2018

The WC Primary election has been certified. 62,707 "Good Votes" were tabulated, making this the largest primary in the history of Whatcom County. By comparison, GE 2017 had 63,606 "Good Votes" so this primary is comparable in participation to last year's general election. It is suspected by some of us that the "stampless ballot" and a polarized, vitrolic political climate contributed much to this turnout. I suspect we can look for an 85K - 90K turnout for what will be a heavily contested GE 2018 on November 6th. The midterm is currently 77 days from today Tuesday, August 21, 2018. 2,786 ballots were returned "undeliverable". If you didn't receive a ballot this election, you probably forgot to change your address when moved. It is probable you will shortly be made an inactive voter. To remedy this, please use myvote.wa.gov to update your address or call you local election office.

   AVReturnStatus     N
1:           Good 62707
2:      Not Voted 73719
3:     Challenged   702
4:           Void   655
5:  Undeliverable  2786 # If you didn't get your ballot: myvote.wa.gov

Unresolved Challenges included:
 2:                  Too Late    438
 3:        No Signature Match    180
 4:              No Signature     32


Primary 2018 Returns

Ballot Return Statistics


This is probably the last Ballot Status Report. Two were filed for 8/6 and 8/7. I used the PM filing for both days. Although the turnout volume will grow until certification, those numbers will be reflected in election results due tonight August 7, 2018 at 8PM.  August 7, 2018 primary results can be found here: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20180807/Turnout.html. As a note, my projections are simply based upon applying the 2016 CT_pct below to each county. Actual results might vary widely from such projections. -RMF 6:56 PM 8/7/2018

Saturday, August 4, 2018

Age and the Primary Turnout

Analysis and data updated from August 10th matchback - RMF 6:52 AM 8/12/2018

There were any number of important reasons to vote in the August 7th Primary, and vote many did. This table is from August 9th  Whatcom County matchbacks merged with July's VRDB:

   AgeRange Active VotesGood PctGood_AgeRange
1:  17 - 54  80113     24115             30.1
2:  55 - 80  53542     33779             63.1
3: 81 - 106   6721      4483             66.7

Tuesday, July 17, 2018

42nd and "Top 30" WA State LD Contributions and Expenditures through 07/16/2018


 For 2018, there have been $10.9M contributions / $3.6M expenditures on all WA LD races to date (07/16/2018). For 2018, there have been $377K contributed / $102K expended on just the 42nd LD Note that LD 42 boasts two Senate candidates (Tim Ballew:$100K, Doug Ericksen:$88K) who are in the "top 30" for state wide legislative contributions to date. 42nd Senate candidate Pinky Vargas has raised a respectable $66K, but is burning through her stash at a faster rate, probably in hopes of making it to the Final.

Monday, July 16, 2018

VRDB and LD counts through July 1st, 2018

All WA LDs: Active Registrants, Max Candidate LD Vote 2016, Trump+Johnson,Clinton+Stein. Click to Enlarge.

The post below the break describes current and historical Legislative District registration levels as of July 1, 2018. Click to enlarge the charts.

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Ryan's Brief List of Sites to Help Prepare Your Mind for the Upcoming Election Season!





IMPORTANT  FOR WA VOTERS : "Deadline for in-person, mail-in & online registrations or address changes" for the August Primary is Monday July 9th!!

Happy July 4th readers!  Please read the post below the break for some light summer reading and preemptive electoral deprogramming! This includes my brief list of sites to prepare you as a voter for the thoroughly corrupt, fascist, manipulative,  authoritarian, psyops and data driven world we all swim in now! And don't forget to register to vote and/or update your changed address at myvote.wa.gov before Monday July 9th! Doesn't hurt to check even if you haven't moved!