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Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Blaine School District 503 Proposition 2018-3 Technology and Capital Projects Levy


Blaine School District 503 Proposition 2018-3 Technology and Capital Projects Levy


15 Blaine School District Precincts  with some previous election results. Click to Enlarge.

Blaine School District 503 ballots will be mailed to nearly 12,000 voters today. The  April 24th special election "levy would collect $2 million per year for six years for the purposes of district-wide capital improvements, acquisition of a future school site, and technology needs" according to the Blaine School District 503 website. Open drop boxes for this election are restricted to: 

Thursday, March 29, 2018

Cross County Active Voter Migrations: GE2016 to GE2017


 42,890 active voters moved counties between 11.2016 and 12.2017.   Click to enlarge the chart above to show what the top 20 migration flows looked liked. Thanks to consultant Kyle Walker for the clear instructions on using the networkD3 library.

Wednesday, March 28, 2018

"LCD" and LD Projections: 2018


These are "LCD" projections for 2018. Each LD part is coupled with their CD match (e.g. 42_1, 42_2) to give a more realistic picture of what races are competitive and what are not based on 2016 Presidential Votes. When I look at it this way, only LDs 6,10,17,24,26,44 represent competitive races. (e.g. margins less than 5% for the LD.) Some 'LCD's are competitive but the LD race is drowned out by the strength of one party in the opposing LCD(s). Not all LDs are split between CDs. The more dense, urban LDs in Seattle are often encompassed by one CD.

Monday, March 19, 2018

WCD 2018 Election Results

In the 2018 Whatcom Conservation District election,  Alan Chapman (endorsed by both the Riveter's Collection and the Whatcom Democrats) appears to have defeated incumbent Larry Helm by 31 votes. Last year, Heather Christianson defeated Suzanne Snyder. Click on the chart to enlarge. View this data on a wide screen. Candidate statements here.

Monday, March 12, 2018

March 2018: Data For Counties, LD and CD.


For all of you who are thinking about filing for office in May: WA VRDB  and OFM GIS data by County, LD, CD with some snapshots of data are below the break. Click to enlarge the images.

Tuesday, March 6, 2018

Republicans encroaching on COB precincts?


Below are two bar plots that show Republican voters are making some gains in COB and other liberal precincts since 2016. This data looks at marginal percentage differences for 87 (February Special Election) precincts between:

  • 2016: Clinton vs. Trump
  • 2017: Buchanan vs. Robinson
  • 2018: BPS501_Approved vs. BPS501 Rejected.

These elections had

  • completely different turnouts
  • precincts changes between 2016 and 2017
  • partial precincts for some of the February Special Election 
  • and (for convenience) I am using 02/2018 active registrants total for all elections. 

I am wary of narratives that show Republican strength decreasing either here or across the nation. The Republican model for securing a favorable electorate looks much different than the Democratic model: social conservatives, quiet Americans, silent majorities may not march in the streets as much, but they may well meet at church every Sunday.  This doesn't mean Republicans aren't winning votes or that Democratic activism isn't alienating swing voters.  Click to enlarge chart.

Saturday, February 24, 2018

Certified February Special Election Data


Below are cor.tests for 2016 and 2017 candidates vs. 2018 BPS501 results per precinct.  A full list of non protected precinct data is below with 2016, 2017 election results and 2018 BPS bond results. You will need to view this on a wide screen, not a phone. This is stats heavy with no added chit chat.

Monday, February 12, 2018

How the BPS 501 Bond Vote played Out (updated with Final match back and Results)

Both BPS 501 bond and MBS 507 levy have passed.


Bellingham Public School  district 501 (90) 2017 precincts outlined in Black and White. Color scale for City and County are 2016 precinct boundaries colored blue to red representing the  Clinton - Trump difference.  Color and outlines demarcate changes between 2016 and 2017 precincts. Click to enlarge. An online map of precincts from the WC Election office is here.

There were two school district financing measures on your ballot this week. If you live in either the Mt. Baker 507 or Bellingham 501 school districts you could and did vote for:
  • Bellingham School District 501 Proposition 2018-1 General Obligation Bonds - $155,000,000
  • Mt Baker School District 507 Proposition 2018-2 Facilities and Technology Levy
For more information on the BPS 501 Bond itself please see More Information at bottom of this post. The rest of this post contains statistical data simulating the BPS 501 bond vote from 2016 and 2017 election results. Matchback totals and projections have been updated with the final results.  Both the Bond and Levy passed.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Men, Women, Trump, Clinton, Rural, Urban Votes

Below are a couple of interesting "top 20" precinct lists. The first list are precincts in GE 2016  that had at least 75 more male voters than females ranked by votes for Hillary Clinton. The second list are precincts in GE 2016 that had at least 75 more female voters than males ranked by votes for Donald Trump. In these 40 precincts, it appears rural/urban dynamics are overcoming gender dynamics. These results are merged with 12/07/2016 WA Voterdb, so they will be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Top Clinton and Trump Precincts GE2016

Top 100 GE 2016 precincts ranked by percentage with 50 or more votes each for either Trump (beige-left col) or Clinton (azure-right col).  These lists emphasize the Rural/Urban party split in WA. Click to enlarge charts. Best viewed on desktop.

Thursday, January 11, 2018

2016 DJT HRC Precinct Correlations for all WA Counties


R's correlation coefficient  gives us a positive <-> negative correlation score (1,-1). "0" describes no correlation. These results are merged with 12/07/2016 Voterdb so these may be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS.  Here are the correlation coefficient for 2016 GE precinct votes for DJT (Trump) and HRC (Clinton) from:

2016 LD and CD with KI separated

These should be 2016 WA Congressional and Legislative District returns with KING County votes separated as "KI". The results are merged with 12/07/16 Voterdb so these may be slightly different results than reported by the WA SoS

Sunday, December 24, 2017

LD x County Matrices

County by LD matrix from 11/2017 voterdb plus a matrix difference: 11/2017 - 07/2016.

Saturday, December 9, 2017

GE 2016 and GE 2017: Top Counties

The tables below represent WA counties with over 50K good ballots returned for either GE 2016 and GE 2017.  Information for this post comes from the WA SoS Research and United States Census CVAP data. These 14 counties represent 88% of registered voters for the 39 WA counties for GE 2017.  Columns:

County: These are WA Counties > 50K Registered
Registered: Registered at Time of GE (General Election)
Ballots: Ballots Good Returned
TO: PCT TO ('Turn Out') or Ballots Good Returned / Registered
Ballots_CVAP: PCT Ballots Good Returned / 2015 (released 2017) Citizen Voting Age Population
diff: difference between TO PCT and Ballots_CVAP PCT

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Part I Primary Election Post Mortem: Matchbacks and Tips on How to Avoid a Challenged Ballot


The results of August 2017  Primary Election will be certified on Tuesday evening. Monday will be the last chance for 200 plus voters to cure their challenged ballots.   Wednesday, many people will be analyzing the final results with implications for the November 2017 General Election. But as a prelude, I would like to talk about the mechanics of the vote with some public matchback  and return numbers available as of last Friday (08/11/2017). These numbers will be updated in the days to come, but are sure enough for my general points.

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

How to get to the Whatcom Conservation District on Tuesday, March 14th

If you are wondering how you are going to get from Bellingham to the Whatcom Conservation District on Tuesday, March 14th (between 9 AM and 6 PM)  so that you can vote for Whatcom Democrat candidate Heather Christianson, I have some screenshots with text for you below the break. But first some thoughts and advice.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Trump's Digital Campaign and The Effect of Social Media on Our Political Lives.

Below the break is a letter I sent to Democratic Chairman Jaxon Raven's on President Trump's digital campaign. It represents my concern that "Trump's campaign represents the most egregious confluence to date of money, big data, high level computation and neuropsychology". Chairman Ravens responded positively with concern to my letter noting that WA state Democratic party will be attempting to address these and other concerns very soon.  My own analysis is that the use of social media is that single most important driver of political activism in the United States.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Some data on The Women's March: Are we Preaching to the "Liberal" Choir?

Below the break I have charts the top 50 cities ranked on their high estimates (which will change) based on Jeremy Pressman and Erica Chenoweth's latest data. Three charts (click to enlarge) cover cities 1-7, 8-30, 31-50 respectively. See table far below the break for a printed list of high and low crowd estimates of those fifty cities.  This is what strikes me:

"How many of these top 50 cities did Trump win?"

In our current "Hunger Games Electorate', are the "Capitol" cities marching and preaching to the "liberal' choir while rest of the "Districts" troll, laugh, or dismisses our 'liberal' efforts?  If so, how did the march actually help?