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Wednesday, November 16, 2016

GE 2016: The Balkanized 42nd LD and a 40,000 strong Trump Vote in Whatcom County

The demarcation between the 40th LD and 42nd LD. Whatcom County has not elected a Democrat to represent  the LD 42 Statehouse positions or the LD 42 Senate for the last four elections.  The red -> blue (County) and light green -> dark green (Bellingham) percentage coloration for this shp file is from the May2nd Presidential Primary (D/(D+R+NP). Will replace with a GE 2016 shp file soon.

I spent the weekend going over Whatcom County results.  The data in this post will be good until 5:00 PM Wednesday, 11/16/2016. Observations, final thoughts and a plea for your LD 42 Democratic membership follow. The google sheets data for this page can be found here and here. Note: Spreadsheet data updated to 11/18/2016:

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Remember to Vote!!!

November 1st: 8 days and 60K ballots remaining?


Whatcom County preferred party vote shares from 10.31.2016 'MatchBack' Report by AVReturnedDate. Click to enlarge.

10,392 ballots were marked as received yesterday. 38,923 'Good' ballots have been cumulatively  received for this election as of last night. The top AVBallotParty category  from the (party preference) Presidential Primary is currently Democratic at 13,551. We are now more than  ~39K  registrants who have sent ballots received with at least 8 counting days (including next weekend) until the election is finished. This turnout projects like the ~104K ballot 2012 election to me.  Among the more interesting features of the vote so far is the fact that ~4500 ballots have been received from active voters who did not vote in any of GE2015, May 24th or August 2nd electionsThose ~4500 had effectively not voted in over a year! This group is part of a much larger group of ~41K that remained active but have not voted in any of GE2015, May 24th, or August 2nd elections~41K is a very big pool in a now ~138K (active) voter database.

Another table below shows that three precinct 'decile'  groups (210-219250-259220-229) have amassed over 1000 AVBallotParty Democrat votes each. As a reminder, the May 2nd Presidential Primary required a preferred party declaration. Those who were active that did not vote  were marked "NO PARTY SELECTED" as thus:

PresPrimary[,.N,AVBallotParty]
       AVBallotParty     N

1:        Republican 23882
2: NO PARTY SELECTED 77680
3:        Democratic 31474

Today, what remains of those voters includes a fourth group ('NA')  that registered or re-activated after the May 2nd Presidential Primary:

CurrentVoterdb[StatusCode == "A",.N,AVBallotParty] # as of 10/19/2016
       AVBallotParty     N
1:        Republican 23514
2: NO PARTY SELECTED 72997
3:        Democratic 30555
4:                NA 11542

These groups can be tracked with each voter's registration ID and form the only true 'micro-target' data ever in the Whatcom County voter database. Some statistical analysis I did proved to me that essentially if voters told us they were Democrats or Republicans, then they voted respectively for a Democrat or Republican presidential candidate.  However, as all of you know, ascertaining 'party shares" still doesn't mean that Berners will be voting now for Secretary Clinton or that casual Democratic voters will continue voting down the ballot for other Democratic candidates or that voters that declared themselves one party or the other won't 'split the ticket' on many issues on their ballot.  More tables and data after the break...

Monday, October 17, 2016

Ballots Drop Tommorrow, October 18th...

Ballot drops tomorrow, October 18th. Look for your ballot in your mail.
This has been an unusual election season. Full of ... interesting developments and laden with lots of public interest.  In Whatcom County (and WA State), you should have received your 151 page Voter's Pamphlet. If not, you can read it online. If you are looking for Election Forums in Whatcom County, you can find at least two at the Whatcom County League of Women Voters.  They are:

Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Why do we vote Democrat? Part I


Picture of the author's grandfather (circa 1972). "Bompa" worked on the waterfront most of his life, dropping out of school in sixth grade to support his family. He joined "Harry Bridges and his men" in 1934. During WWII, he and his fellow longshoremen laid on their backs and rolled 55 gallon barrels of oil with their feet into the hull of freighters destined for the war effort. After the mechanization of the waterfront, he became a hod carrier and then a brick mason until his retirement at 65.

Why do we vote as Democrats?

It would be 82 years ago that my grandfather was shouldering 100 lb. sacks of sugar from ship to warehouse on the Oakland waterfront. The year was 1934 and the times were desperate. During my youth, when the discussion turned to politics  my grandfather would often say with some emphasis:
"We knew people, Ryan. We knew people who were hungry. They were standing in the bread lines and starving to death!"

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

November Election Resources and Links

Resources for Voting and Participating in the November 8th General Election:

(Ballot mailing starts October 18th!)

Ways you can help Democrats:

Friday, September 30, 2016

Why you should check myvote.wa.gov before October 10th...


Editor's note: The deadline for online registration (October 10th) has passed for this year. If you are a new WA state resident you can still walk into the Whatcom County elections office until October 31st to register. For all other questions, please call the Whatcom County Elections office at the contacts here: http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election . Thanks, -RMF

I write this post this every year this time.  The information is worth repeating. Here is an explanation of some of the reasons you should visit http://myvote.wa.gov sometime before October 10th, the last day to update your voter registration online in the state of WA.  This is especially important if you have recently moved or returned to town!

First, understand exactly what managing a 135,000 strong (Whatcom) county voter database in a county with 30,000 college students looks: Lots of 'flux', lots additions, lots of deletions, lots of "coming and going", lots of *CHANGE*.  And  that change is hardly  just college students. Here are some quick indexes of that change. I included the R data.table code:

Monday, August 22, 2016

"How and Why Donald Trump and Republicans will win Whatcom County this Fall."

"First, don’t think of an elephant. Remember not to repeat false conservative claims and then rebut them with the facts. Instead, go positive. Give a positive truthful framing to undermine claims to the contrary. Use the facts to support positively-framed truth. "  - George Lakeoff from https://georgelakoff.com/2016/07/23/understanding-trump-2/
I published the blog post below the break  ("How and Why Donald Trump and Republicans will win Whatcom County this Fall.") on August 22nd, let it run for a week and then I pulled it because I thought it was very negative. But I've changed my mind. I think many Clinton Democrats are operating in shrinking closet, accomplishing little but kibitzing with one another on why they think Donald Trump can never be President of the United States.  November may well bring a Republican landslide of epic proportions here in Whatcom County and the state of WA, if the numbers I have looked at are indicative of the general election. Personally, I think it is a really bad idea to sit around and bitch about Donald Trump. You are wasting time you could be using to support Democrats. My guess is George Lakeoff would agree. Here are some ways you can support the Democratic Party, even if you really don't like Hillary Clinton or the federal (e.g. "super delegate") candidates:

I suggest you pick an activity of your choice and budget range and simply start working on it. If you call the local Whatcom Democrats ( http://www.whatcomdemocrats.com/content/executive-board-2015-2016) offices, they will have suggestions for you.  I joined the Democratic Party after listening to Noel Frame's marvelous speech at the Key Arena Bernie Rally.  I wan't to help. 

But since then I can definitely tell you that running and winning elections isn't a magical process. I haven't met any magicians in the Democratic Party in Whatcom County.  And our party has division within it's ranks that mirrors the Bernie/Clinton rivalry.  Winning this election won't happen without your help and contributions. Please help!!

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Withering Primary Participation in Whatcom County and WA ahead of August 2nd Primary

May 24th and August 2nd  (2016) Primaries in Whatcom County: Comparing 'AVReturnedDate' by volume. Click to Enlarge.
Whether because of summering students or depressed Berners, primary participation in Whatcom County and across WA is unimpressive to date. After a strong weekend showing of 3,990 ballots on Monday, an underwhelming 430 ballots were received today (Tuesday) bringing Whatcom County's turnout to 12,557 (9.49%) with five (5) counting weekdays left. It is an unfair comparison due to student participation in May, but the recent Presidential Primary had 30,869 ballots received in the same number of days ahead of May 24th, 2016.  Most of the state is doing no better than us: www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/Ballot-Return-Statistics.aspx.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Monday, July 18, 2016

Who do I vote for?

If I were a voter in Whatcom County, my number one question right now is: "Who do I vote for?"

Come August 3rd, if you eventually find your precinct turnout is low or that falloff is high, the lists below the break taken from the sample ballot might explain why.  PCO elections are not listed here. I am imagining a wave of electoral choices washing over casual or "low information" voters like a rogue wave overwhelming an unaware beach comber. 8/10s of 1% of all ballots have been returned by this morning.

Ballots Mailed: July 13, 2016
Number of Registered Voters: 134,011
Ballots Returned: 1,093
Percentage of Ballots returned: 10:59 AM 7/18/2016
(1093/134011) * 100
[1] 0.816

Friday, July 8, 2016

Demographics from the July 6th WA State Voterdb

WA State Voterdb as of June 6, 2016

Monday, May 30, 2016

Whatcom GE 2015 vs Whatcom Presidential Primary 2016

The 2015 GE had about 7K more votes than the 54K 2016 Presidential Primary.  In the quantile (equal-frequency) class intervals  and the spreadsheet below the break, here is what Bellingham and  Whatcom County turnout looked like per precinct last week and six months ago.

Sunday, May 29, 2016

May 24th Presidential Primary in Whatcom County

Click to Enlarge

In Whatcom County, Sanders walloped Clinton in Presidential Primary. 53,234 ballots have been counted according to the Auditor . I have 54,074 good ballots  with a party selected received  from 5/27 matchbacks. Certification is June 7, 2016.

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Really Good Reasons to Vote Today in WA

Really Good Reasons to Vote Today in WA for a primary that some might characterize as superfluous:


Thursday, May 19, 2016

PCO Candidacy Data as of 11:24 AM 5/23/2016:

PCO signup Data as of 11:24 AM 5/23/2016:
As of Monday the Democrats have a 149 - 74 edge on the Republicans for candidates for PCO. 115 of the Democrat precincts have one or more applicants.

Many Democrats are competing against one another for PCO.  This isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially if everyone gets together, shares responsibility and helps out! 27 Democrat races tonight have 2 or more PCOs. There is only an election choice if there is more than one candidate. Precincts candidates in 302(5 Candidates) might want to consider a meet.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

"Cooper, this is no time for caution!"

With a week to go, the Primary return numbers are surprising the Whatcom County Elections Office:

Primary Ballots Returned (5:49 PM 5/17/2016) = 29,609

This strong an early return for a primary, even an all county primary, is huge. Keep in mind we barely eclipsed 60K in last November's GE!  The registration counts below the break show us why so many are voting. The registration rolls in Whatcom County are now clearly bloated with youth and Berners.

If you have ever thought about running for office or PCO, now is the time and this is filing week!  Notice in the registration numbers below that those born after 1966 in Whatcom County now eclipse those born before by (66121 - 64694) = 1,427. Notice that those born after 1980 now eclipse those born before 1950 by a stunning (38503 - 27968) = 10,535. Although we are very youth heavy in Whatcom County (thank you WWU, WWC, BTC), these proportions are now not unusual.  See similar numbers for all  of WA far below.

The future is here. Time for the DNC, local Democrats, and the rest of the world to wake up and smell the Millennials and the Berners. Youth and those of us still young enough not to be suffering cognitive degeneration will inherit what remains of the Earth. As my four year old likes to say: "There is no time to lose!" Perhaps I can also quote from the docking scene in "Interstellar": "Cooper, this is no time for caution!"

Monday, May 16, 2016

Illustrating the 42nd LD electorate for 2016; Post Under Construction

Voters of the 42nd LD Precincts sorted into groups of threes: 3 Votes for last GEs (2013,2014,2015), active but no votes for the last 3 GEs, NA for the last three GEs.  These three groups cover 61% of current active registered voterdb for LD42nd.  Based on 4/15/2016 WC voterdb. Click to enlarge. 
Find R (data.table) code here. Post under construction.