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Thursday, December 6, 2018

Posteriors: That 42nd LD Race

The WA 42nd LD races this year can be described as bittersweet for the Democratic Party.  On the one hand, these three races were as close as the Democrats have come to Republican totals since 2010 when Kelli Linville and Al Jensen both lost close races to Jason Overstreet and Vincent Buys. In 2012, 2014 and 2016, the Democrats were shut out of the 42nd despite often ferocious and relatively expensive campaigns. Note that these numbers for this post are pre-recount totals.  The recount changed little. -RMF 11:05 AM 12/7/2018

But this year,  one narrow (981 votes) victory for Sharon Shoemake sends a lonely Whatcom Democrat to Olympia matched with Republicans Doug Ericksen and Luanne VanWerven. The Ericksen(R)/Vargas(D) contested State Senate seat which was lost by 46 votes is particularly poignant. All the more so since Pos. 2 winner Sharon Shewmake(D) had aggregated contributions and independent expenditures that were only 30% of the same for losing Senate candidate Pinky Vargas(D). Campaign expenditures were a comparatively minimal $48K for the losing Pos. 1 candidate Justin Boneau(D). Mr. Boneau lost by only 80 votes to Luanne VanWerven(R):

Friday, November 30, 2018

Recount underway for LD 42nd

The hand recount is underway for the 42nd LD. "Final" certified results are here. A chart of the November 27th "final" (before recount) results is below as is a chart of all Whatcom County Results .Wide screen will be best for the second all county chart. Click to enlarge the charts.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Tuesday 11/26/2018 Certified Matchbacks for LD 42 and Whatcom County

Ahead of today's WM 3:00 PM final certified results, below the break are this mornings certified matchbacks.

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

One of these All County races was not like the others...

Click to enlarge. The all Democrat Erb vs. Richey Prosecutor's race defied red vs blue precinct patterns.
Analysis currently under construction, but  more charts below. Note that my data is precinct derived from 11/20/2018 and will need to be updated after certification. Also two precincts (269, 271) are 'protected' due to low participation for the Senate and County race, My totals don't reflect those precinct contributions.  Requires wide screen. Click to enlarge the charts.

Monday, November 19, 2018

Monday 11/19/2018 Matchbacks for LD 42 and Whatcom County

Only 150 signature issues remain to be cured in LD 42 as of 11/19/2018.  That is remarkable.
I list the signature issues remaining in LD 42 by precinct 'series' and by precinct 'decade' + residence city below the break. This post will require a wide screen.

Sunday, November 18, 2018

GE 2018 Results: The 163x Initiative Measures

As of 11/18/2018 enough results have been returned to reasonably assess the WA state county results. Below are lattice graphs and a table for WA  GE 2018 Initiative Measures labelled by 163x ranked by county. These initiative measures were:
  • 1639 Gun Control
  • 1634 Anti Grocery tax
  • 1631 Pro Carbon Tax
The top 5 counties have such larger populations than the lesser 34 that concurrent display of different volumes obscures vote patterns. I segregate the county results in four different aggregated charts as labeled below. For each county, the three rows signify  'Yes' votes for  1639,1634 and 1631, ordered from top to bottom.   Subjectively, a pattern of 1634 (red middle bar) extending beyond 1639 (top blue bar) and 1631 (bottom blue bar) would indicate a conservative vote. Subjectively, the inverse would indicate a liberal vote.  For example, in the chart below, both San Juan and Jefferson have a more "liberal profile" than either "conservative" Walla Walla or Lewis County. In reality, these are second amendment, environmentalist, and sales tax issues such that any number of mixed votes might inhabit a largely independent or non-partisan voting populace as is much of WA state. All of the counties are backed off (left) the origin (0) an equal amount to make the smaller counties seem more visible. Click to enlarge the graphs.
Liberal vs. Conservative samples

Friday, November 16, 2018

Friday 11/16/2018 Matchbacks for LD 42 and Whatcom County

This is our last dance
This is ourselves under pressure
Under pressure
David Bowie from "Under Pressure"

I have heard from third party reports of those who attended the Friday Canvassing Board meeting that the Auditor wants the rest of the challenged ballots in ASAP. This  week, Thursday and Friday are the Thanksgiving Holiday. Certification is Tuesday November 27th. Check myvote.wa.gov to make sure your ballot has been accepted for tabulation and/or call Elections and/or talk with your political parties. Additionally, if the Auditor/Elections has sent you any mail or left phone messages, make sure to respond ASAP.  Matchback reports below the break.

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

News links for the Great Misdelivered/Undelivered, Three County Ballot Scandal....

This year I covered the four county area (SK,SJ,WM,IS) because of the pertaining appellate judicial race. In the middle of the election a "ballot scandal" developed. I think all three counties most affected recovered. Skagit is having a slow count because of a "folded ballot" issue. When SK ballots are counted, they should join the 75% turnout club as well. Here is where those four counties stand as of the evening of  11/14/2018: From https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20181106/Turnout.html

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Friday and Tuesday matchbacks for LD42

No results different than Friday tonight for Whatcom County. Friday and Tuesday's matchbacks for LD 42 are compared below.

Sunday, November 11, 2018

Did You Cure Your Challenged Ballot? The Close Vote in the 42nd LD!

WA Voters will have cast over 3.1M votes by the end of next week, simply one of the most fabulous mid term elections in WA history. In Whatcom County, we have already counted more votes than any other election in our history save GE 2016!  But there is always a dark side: The larger the vote, the larger the volume of challenged ballots! Most people probably don't check myvote.wa.gov after casting their vote by mail (or dropbox) ballot in WA State and they really should. Because many thousands statewide every election have their ballots challenged and many don't receive any cures! It is hard to get an accurate number for this without looking at every county matchback, so let us examine Whatcom County's matchback for VBMReturnStatus and VBMReturnChallenge for 11/13/2018 in LD 42:

Thursday, November 8, 2018

Four Rs and Four Ds in GE2018

Below are Cantwell, Vargas, Shewmake, Boneau (blue overlapped)  vs. Hutchison, Ericksen, Buys, VanWerven (red overlapped) for GE 2018 as of 11/08/2016 results. Bottom chart has Clinton+Stein vs. Trump+Johnson overlays. Click to enlarge.


Wednesday, October 31, 2018

WA State Projections for CD, LD, County: 11/06/2018


Terrain (light green) colored areas here generally have less than 66 votes returned per precinct after  (11.06.2018) of the WA state midterm election.  However, turnout buckets for Kitsap are incorrect on this map along with some other precincts due to some 2016/2017/2018 precinct merge issues.  For more updated news on turnout see https://www.bellinghampoliticsandeconomics.com/2018/10/precinct-and-county-participation-maps.html

Over 39M have early voted in the 2018 GE as of the evening of 11/05/2018 according to Michael McDonald at the U.S. Election Project.  This morning the latest WA data came in taking WA turnout over 2.3M votes. My latest projections show Schrier just ahead of Rossi in CD 8. I also show R's winning CDs 3 - 5 handily. And unlike the reported polls for CD five (McMorris-Rodgers vs Brown), my current CD 5 projections aren't even close. What's weird about Nate Silver's 538 collection of polls for CD 8 and other WA CDs: They are widely disparate depending on the pollster!My projections are really straightforward:

sum of   ( Clinton+Stein/ (Clinton+Stein+Trump+Johnson) * (Votes Good/Precinct) )

I make no attempt to deal with changed precincts or districts between 2016 and 2018 although there have been no County, CD , LD district changes in WA since 2010 of which I am aware. There have been plenty of precinct changes in many WA counties. So in many ways, if my projection of the GE2016 contest upon current races has any value, it is update us on who has voted more at this hour. More projections below the break. 

The Ballot Statistics page is always one morning ahead of the state wide matchback data. Statewide 2,305,405 good ballots have been returned as of 11.06.2018.  The Ballot Status data is responsible for my projections. I have that data currently showing 2,234,777.

 11/06/2018:

   CD  Total      D      R
 1:  1 241150 132194 105033
 2:  2 222155 134088  87683
 3:  3 238541 100594 124864 #Long(D) vs. Herrera Beutler(R)
 4:  4 165799  57961 106644
 5:  5 226772  90361 130435 #Brown(D) and McMorris Rodgers(R)
 6:  6 221468 117469  99678
 7:  7 298565 247066  45399
 8:  8 234791 114097 115203 #Schrier(D) and Rossi(R)
 9:  9 202915 144438  53457
10: 10 182621  97888  81931


Monday, October 29, 2018

Precinct and County Participation Maps: 11/05/2018


WA Counties Turnout for 11/05/2018: 4:00PM Click to enlarge the chart.

I will update this post with fresh data daily through the remaining election period. - RMF 11/05/2018 7:00 PM.

Ballot Statistics as of 11.05.2018 4:00PM show 1.9M ballots returned. This is a fairly blistering state-wide 44.9% turnout rate. However, there is a wide range to county turnout currently stretching from 36.6% to 66.30%.  Among counties with voter populations over 50K, Clallam, Whatcom, Island and Spokane county stand out for their turnout.  If you have not yet received a ballot, you should call your local Elections office immediatelyYou should also vote early, check myvote.wa.gov  and check "Ballot Status" box after voting. The magic phrase you want to see is "Your ballot has been accepted for tabulation." That means you are good to go!  
The Ballot Statistics page is always one morning ahead of the state wide matchback data. Currently, (11.05.2018), we are 0 days from the election. Statewide 1,937,253  good ballots have been returned as of 11.05.2018 4:00 PM.  The Ballot Status data is responsible for my projections. I have that data from 11.05.2018 data currently showing about 1,881,846.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

11/06/2018 Matchbacks and Projections GE2018 for WM, SK, IS, SJ

Click to enlarge the Map. For more on this data please see https://www.bellinghampoliticsandeconomics.com/2018/10/precinct-and-county-participation-maps.html

This post gives GE 2018 ballot statistics and election projections for the "four county area": (WM,SK,IS,SJ) and their CD, LD districts.  I am using a GE 2016  Clinton+Stein projection of precincts as the base for my projections due to wide scale national expectations of an unexpectedly large midterm turnout. My method will probably result in a gross approximation of outcomes. I am using no private voter files, no latent classes, no individual profiling, just precinct percentages.

The Ballot Statistics page is always one morning ahead of the state wide matchback data. Currently, (11.06.2018), we are 1 day from the election. Statewide 2,305,405 good ballots have been returned as of 11.06.2018.  The Ballot Status data is responsible for my projections. I have that data currently showing about 2,234,777.

Monday, October 15, 2018

How GE2018 Could Play out in WM,SK,SJ,IS. Part I: The Districts

Post under Construction. Last update: 9:48 AM 10/16/2018 . This post is best seen on a wide screen desktop.-RMF

In the table below, we can see combined GE 2016 results for Clinton+Stein (CS) or Trump+Johnson (TJ) and Primary 2018 results for MariaCantwell (MC) or SusanHutchison (SH). Skagit 10 (light blue), Whatcom 42-2 (dark blue) and 40th LD (yellow) are critical for Democrat success in the four county area. In reality, only WM 40-2, WM 42-2, SK 40-1 and SJ 40-2 are sure bets for 'blue' in a heavy turnout GE.  This makes LD 40  + WM 42-2 (North Bellingham) the liberal anchors in a four county area that could turn red with a stronger Republican turnout. This helps put the "double Mike P." strategy in perspective. Petrish and Peetoom can't really beat Lekanoff and Frazey, but they can help Seguine (R) beat Hazelrigg-Hernandez (D) and also help the 42LD Rs in their customary cruise over the 42LD Ds. No votes can be taken for granted in this year's four county election that mostly pits middle-aged Republican men versus progressive Democratic women. The primary went mostly to the Democrats in Whatcom County. However, turnout is likely to resemble GE 2016 this November due to the new stampless ballot and an unruly, "hyper energized" electorate now chafing at their electoral bits nationwide!  Let the balloting begin!

    CD LD County    CS    TJ    MC    SH   StatusGE  StatusPRI
 1:  1 42     WM 21683 30582 11763 11655  Light Red Light Blue
 2:  2 10     IS 21767 20784 13552  7612 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 3:  2 40     WM 25079  8355 12810  2997  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 4:  2 42     WM 14828  5266  8181  1742  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 5:  2 40     SK  9925  8994  6013  3135 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 6:  2 40     SJ  7639  3090  4780  1197  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 7:  2 10     SK  4843  4592  2913  1749 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 8:  1 10     SK  3909  3704  2270  1295 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 9:  1 40     SK  4129  3354  1862   935 Light Blue  Dark Blue
10:  2 39     SK  2547  3637  1385  1074  Light Red Light Blue
11:  1 39     SK  2283  3441  1374  1046   Dark Red Light Blue
12:  1 40     WM  1487  1117   811   474 Light Blue  Dark Blue

In the charts below, black lines are Congressional Districts (CD1 & CD2). Red lines are Legislative Districts 10, 39, 40,  & 42.  Blue scale for precincts is the Clinton+Stein percentage. Note that Clinton+Stein vs. Trump+Johnson doesn't give us the complete picture for GE 2016 since there were so many (un-tabulated) write-ins presumably for Bernie.  For more data, please see 'Notes' far below. Click to enlarge the charts!

Sunday, September 30, 2018

Election URLs and Links

GE 2018 Election URLs and Links

These are some sites useful for the November 6th, 2018 General Election in Whatcom County and the four county area of Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties.

Saturday, September 29, 2018

Summed Voting histories for the four county area (WM,SK,IS,SJ)

For the four county area (WM,SK,IS,SJ), we have the following totals for Primary 2018 for the August VRDB:

[1] 128303 # Active and Voted
[1] 154465 # Active and Not Voted

I sum the voting histories (per voter) of each of these groups below. Note that the Voted vs. Not Voted charts are approximately 2x in scale.  This post will probably need a wide screen.

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Metrics and Charts for Mail-in vs. DropBox by WA County for 2017 and 2018

The chart immediately below represents a comparison of mail in ballots for Pri2018 , Pri2017, GE2017 for the top 10 WA counties excluding King which is shown far below. This data is from the state's election reconciliation reports.  In a previous post on Gender and the Vote I discuss groups of voters by their recent voting history.  Here, I look simply at two ballot return methods (Mail-in vs. DropBox) to help determine if the new "stampless ballot" is enticing new and old populations to vote more than usual. Note that it may be difficult to separate voter motives and habits by ballot return methodologies. But the long purple bars of PRI2018 in chart below, bars that outstretch both PRI2017(blue) and GE2017(red), indicate mail-in balloting is big hit. Click to enlarge Charts.

Mail-in Totals for Top Ten Counties

Sunday, September 23, 2018

Charts from 4 County (IS,SK,SJ,WM) Area

Charts from GE2016 and PRI2018 results from the four county area:
  • Island
  • Skagit
  • San Juan
  • Whatcom

Monday, September 17, 2018

Ballots have Dropped... Should be in your mailbox soon.

This October 8th deadline for online voter registration has now passed. If your address is not current @ myvote.wa.gov please call your local elections office to see how you can still vote in the November 6th election. For election offices in the  four county area, please see  these links for Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties.  The 18 day election period starts today October 19th and runs until the November 6th general election.  You should have received your voter's pamphlet by now. Check your voter registration if you have not.  Some important election deadlines and information for voters are below:
This is the new "stampless ballot". Drop boxes for Whatcom County can be found here. The WA Dems produced a drop box map for all of WA here. These deadlines and other information can be seen at http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election  (Whatcom County) and at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections (WA SOS).  In general, WA requires registration at a specific address 29 days before the election. New laws take effect in June of 2019. See RCW 29A.08.140 @ http://app.leg.wa.gov/RCW/default.aspx?cite=29A.08.140.  For further questions about your registration status in Whatcom County, please visit myvote.wa.gov or contact Whatcom County Elections. For election offices in the  four county area, please see  these links for Whatcom, Skagit, Island, San Juan counties. More numbers and details after the break...