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Monday, August 22, 2016

How and Why Donald Trump will win Whatcom County

"The yellow vests are now congregating around the aisles. Anytime a Sanders delegate goes up to wait in the 90-minute-long line for what is truly the worst arena food in America or to go pee, the Clinton organizers try to place a hired seat occupier in the seat. These are not temporary seat fillers like you hear about at the Oscars, these are people being told to not get up once they take over the seat, even for a credentialed delegate. So when you were watching at home and it seemed like slowly but surely the crowd was becoming more supportive of the established Clinton storyline, this is due to a forced manipulation. It is visually true but not because people are reconciling, but because the crowd is being forcibly transformed. "Mark Lasser, Colorado Delegate for Bernie 
Below the break are a number of charts and data sets on the August 2nd Primary election. I will give you my subjective viewpoint upfront and then walk you through my data below. Currently, there is a wave of publicity denouncing Donald Trump, claiming he is unfit for Presidency complete with polling showing he is losing.  I predict Hillary Clinton will lose in Whatcom County and take the rest of the Whatcom County Democratic ballot down with her. Because of the high number of disenchanted Berner youth in King and other WA counties, such a result may pervade much of Western WA. 

Bernie beat Hillary 18K : 12K in Whatcom's Presidential Primary. A remarkable 54K turned out for this party preference primary and voted exceptionally for Bernie. The party preference votes mirrored the Democrat: Republican vote totals: 31K Dem : 23K Republican.  Trump received nearly as many votes as Bernie (17K) and an additional 5K plus for Carson, Kasich, and Cruz made up the rest of the Republican votes.  Still, despite losing that Presidential Primary badly, if it were held again today all Hillary would need to win in Whatcom County is to convince 12K  or 2/3rds of all those Berners to vote for her. How hard could that be to do?  Unfortunately, Over 12K of those that voted party preference Democrat in that Presidential Primary simply didn't show up in the August Primary. Most of the stories coming back from Berners who attended the convention are brutal recitations of the abuse of power and dirty tricks by the DNC and Clinton supporters in 'Yellow Shirts' (See 1,2,3,4,5). I am guessing most of those that did not vote in the August primary are Berners who either:
  • think all DNC candidates and members should be sucking rotten eggs
  • are suffering major trauma and depression from watching the DNC convention in Philly completely trash their generational hopes.
Of the two, the second group is probably the most politically damaging. Some people fight through traumatic events and remain committed to their core values. Most of us don't. If there is an accident on one side of the street we change course. If our neighborhood is too dangerous or loud, we move. If the political system seems hopelessly corrupt, we busy ourselves with something else. Revisiting the source of failure and trauma in your life is not an inbred strategy.  Most human beings practice avoidance and there is quite a line of thinking that describes withdrawal and avoidance as excellent survival strategies in a brutal world. We may never hear again from many disenchanted Bernie supporters, angry or not. We will note their absence in the voting rolls from their lack of participation. For this group, the constant battle of political conflict now means nothing to them.  They will simply just stop voting.  Below are the charts and the data that has led me to these sobering conclusions.

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Withering Primary Participation in Whatcom County and WA ahead of August 2nd Primary

May 24th and August 2nd  (2016) Primaries in Whatcom County: Comparing 'AVReturnedDate' by volume. Click to Enlarge.
Whether because of summering students or depressed Berners, primary participation in Whatcom County and across WA is unimpressive to date. After a strong weekend showing of 3,990 ballots on Monday, an underwhelming 430 ballots were received today (Tuesday) bringing Whatcom County's turnout to 12,557 (9.49%) with five (5) counting weekdays left. It is an unfair comparison due to student participation in May, but the recent Presidential Primary had 30,869 ballots received in the same number of days ahead of May 24th, 2016.  Most of the state is doing no better than us: www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/Ballot-Return-Statistics.aspx.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Monday, July 18, 2016

Who do I vote for?

If I were a voter in Whatcom County, my number one question right now is: "Who do I vote for?"

Come August 3rd, if you eventually find your precinct turnout is low or that falloff is high, the lists below the break taken from the sample ballot might explain why.  PCO elections are not listed here. I am imagining a wave of electoral choices washing over casual or "low information" voters like a rogue wave overwhelming an unaware beach comber. 8/10s of 1% of all ballots have been returned by this morning.

Ballots Mailed: July 13, 2016
Number of Registered Voters: 134,011
Ballots Returned: 1,093
Percentage of Ballots returned: 10:59 AM 7/18/2016
(1093/134011) * 100
[1] 0.816

Friday, July 8, 2016

Demographics from the July 6th WA State Voterdb

WA State Voterdb as of June 6, 2016

Monday, May 30, 2016

Whatcom GE 2015 vs Whatcom Presidential Primary 2016

The 2015 GE had about 7K more votes than the 54K 2016 Presidential Primary.  In the quantile (equal-frequency) class intervals  and the spreadsheet below the break, here is what Bellingham and  Whatcom County turnout looked like per precinct last week and six months ago.

Sunday, May 29, 2016

May 24th Presidential Primary in Whatcom County

Click to Enlarge

In Whatcom County, Sanders walloped Clinton in Presidential Primary. 53,234 ballots have been counted according to the Auditor . I have 54,074 good ballots  with a party selected received  from 5/27 matchbacks. Certification is June 7, 2016.

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Really Good Reasons to Vote Today in WA

Really Good Reasons to Vote Today in WA for a primary that some might characterize as superfluous:


Thursday, May 19, 2016

PCO Candidacy Data as of 11:24 AM 5/23/2016:

PCO signup Data as of 11:24 AM 5/23/2016:
As of Monday the Democrats have a 149 - 74 edge on the Republicans for candidates for PCO. 115 of the Democrat precincts have one or more applicants.

Many Democrats are competing against one another for PCO.  This isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially if everyone gets together, shares responsibility and helps out! 27 Democrat races tonight have 2 or more PCOs. There is only an election choice if there is more than one candidate. Precincts candidates in 302(5 Candidates) might want to consider a meet.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

"Cooper, this is no time for caution!"

With a week to go, the Primary return numbers are surprising the Whatcom County Elections Office:

Primary Ballots Returned (5:49 PM 5/17/2016) = 29,609

This strong an early return for a primary, even an all county primary, is huge. Keep in mind we barely eclipsed 60K in last November's GE!  The registration counts below the break show us why so many are voting. The registration rolls in Whatcom County are now clearly bloated with youth and Berners.

If you have ever thought about running for office or PCO, now is the time and this is filing week!  Notice in the registration numbers below that those born after 1966 in Whatcom County now eclipse those born before by (66121 - 64694) = 1,427. Notice that those born after 1980 now eclipse those born before 1950 by a stunning (38503 - 27968) = 10,535. Although we are very youth heavy in Whatcom County (thank you WWU, WWC, BTC), these proportions are now not unusual.  See similar numbers for all  of WA far below.

The future is here. Time for the DNC, local Democrats, and the rest of the world to wake up and smell the Millennials and the Berners. Youth and those of us still young enough not to be suffering cognitive degeneration will inherit what remains of the Earth. As my four year old likes to say: "There is no time to lose!" Perhaps I can also quote from the docking scene in "Interstellar": "Cooper, this is no time for caution!"

Monday, May 16, 2016

Illustrating the 42nd LD electorate for 2016; Post Under Construction

Voters of the 42nd LD Precincts sorted into groups of threes: 3 Votes for last GEs (2013,2014,2015), active but no votes for the last 3 GEs, NA for the last three GEs.  These three groups cover 61% of current active registered voterdb for LD42nd.  Based on 4/15/2016 WC voterdb. Click to enlarge. 
Find R (data.table) code here. Post under construction.

Saturday, May 14, 2016

Do you want to become a Democrat PCO in Whatcom County?

Click to Enlarge. Link to larger image here. See also "GIS Precinct Based Maps:Ballots Good, Jack and Joy"

We can talk all we want about the revolution, the corruption, the greed, the incompetence, the futility of the two party system. However, the reality of modern political life means working within the community to spread the revolution, to establish trust, to build alliances with many,  to turn out the vote, to assure that our votes are counted and to make sure the system doesn't fail our children like it has failed us.  

Next week is Filing Week in Whacom County. Would you like to become a Democrat Precinct Committee Officer? This is an elected position. There is no filing fee. Here is information from the WA Secretary of State on the PCO positions:

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Summary of Posts on County, LD, CD WA data from 04/01/2015 and 05/01/2016

This is a summary of statistical posts I have written recently that may help 'Berniecrats' running for office.  I am pretty much a self taught stats head, however I mean well. Some of my data may be confusing.  If you are a Berniecrat (in WA especially) seeking election and you need help with your voterdb; send me some of your bonafides and I will see what I can do.  I choose to believe most Berniecrats are high IQ by default. I code in R (with help from PostgreSQL and Redis).

The bottom line in the state of WA in 2016 is this: The "Bernie Effect" has meant a huge increase in registrants in WA districts and counties of Millennials, GenXrs, and other generations that support Bernie. The WA state voterdb now has as many active registrants born after 1966 as before. In certain counties, those born after 1980 have swollen the voting rolls to never before seen numbers. All my demographic data suggest to me the influence of boomers and the pre WWII generations is diminishing in the face of a surge of dissatisfied youth looking for progressive change in WA state. As far as I can see, you will be campaigning to a "Bernie Rally" crowd in most cities, counties, and legislative districts in WA.  I can't but help believe from my data, that if you are a Berniecrat challenger to an incumbent, that you will need all these Berners to vote for you!

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Part IV Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Change in registrants for CC, LD, CD over the last 18.5 months

The tables below give the change in registered voters in WA over last 18.5 months (11.16.2014 - 05.01.2016). The active voting rolls increased 156,614 during those months with 135K of that increase coming from the top eleven counties. King County alone added 50K. Four counties (AS, CU, GA, LI) lost a total of  765 voters.

All Legislative Districts increased their totals. Eight LDs increased registrants by over 4000: 36, 34, 27, 43, 4, 21, 5, and 1.  Legislative District 36 has swollen to ~108K registrants, increasing by 5,481 since 11.16.2014. WA Congressional Districts have also seen large increases in registration. CD 7 increased by 20,837 registrants during those same 18.5 months. At the current pace, CD 7 will have 500K total registrants by 11/2017.  CD 7 and LD 36 (Seattle) are arguably the most Democratic and most liberal districts in the Pacific Northwest.

Sunday, May 8, 2016

Part III Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: How many Berners are out there?

The charts and data below the break are dedicated to all you Berners that want to sign up to run  for Legislative Districts next week, the third week of May, when Filing Week opens. See PDFs and FAQs here: 1234 . You are probably wondering how many Berners are out there, will they vote for you, can you really take back that LD and become a progressive force in the Olympia?  I will let you answer all the tough questions while you lie awake at night.  Below the break are some data and charts to chew on.

Sunday, May 1, 2016

Part I Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Birth Years of Registrants - 04/01/2016




Part II Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Registrants Partitioned by CC,LD,CD intersections - 04/01/2016

The top eleven most registered counties are 84% of the state's registered voters. Active WA voterdb registrants from County (CC), Congressional District (CD), and Legislative Districts(LD)  'partitions' are keyed and sorted by count, registration year, last year voted in the tables below the break. . Additional 'mixed queries' are far below. A 'partition' here I define as the unique number of active registrants that result from the (geographic) intersections of particular CC,CD or LD districts. Currently, there are 141 such unique partitions in WA, however the bottom nine exists simply because county voter rolls have not assigned CD and or LD or both to some small number of voters.

Monday, April 25, 2016

Sites Discussing Election Fraud

"We are not able to elect Bernie because there is so much of this fraud and voter suppression and rigging and caucus cheating going on. So it seems like magical thinking to continue to go forward with this campaign and not address the issue, to not fight the battle that will actually cost the election."
- Debbie Lusignan ("The Sane Progressive")

Update on "The Bernie Effect" in Whatcom County

New or reactivated registrations are increasingly younger and more urban in Whatcom County. Click to Enlarge.


Density Curves. Left: Birth Years of Voters who have left the voter rolls in the last 17 months. Right: Birth Year of Voters who have joined voter rolls in the last 17 months. Click to Enlarge.
4,962 net voters have been added to the Whatcom County voting rolls in the last 17 months. 12,428 voters have left or been marked inactive. 17,390 have registered themselves as active. (Yes. That is stupendous number for Whatcom County.) We are adding almost 10 registrants per day.  These registrants would be a mix of original registrations and re-activations  or address changes. The last 17 months have been responsible for 3.9% increase in the voter database since 11/22/2014.