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Thursday, May 19, 2016

PCO Candidacy Data as of 11:24 AM 5/23/2016:

PCO signup Data as of 11:24 AM 5/23/2016:
As of Monday the Democrats have a 149 - 74 edge on the Republicans for candidates for PCO. 115 of the Democrat precincts have one or more applicants.

Many Democrats are competing against one another for PCO.  This isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially if everyone gets together, shares responsibility and helps out! 27 Democrat races tonight have 2 or more PCOs. There is only an election choice if there is more than one candidate. Precincts candidates in 302(5 Candidates) might want to consider a meet.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

"Cooper, this is no time for caution!"

With a week to go, the Primary return numbers are surprising the Whatcom County Elections Office:

Primary Ballots Returned (5:49 PM 5/17/2016) = 29,609

This strong an early return for a primary, even an all county primary, is huge. Keep in mind we barely eclipsed 60K in last November's GE!  The registration counts below the break show us why so many are voting. The registration rolls in Whatcom County are now clearly bloated with youth and Berners.

If you have ever thought about running for office or PCO, now is the time and this is filing week!  Notice in the registration numbers below that those born after 1966 in Whatcom County now eclipse those born before by (66121 - 64694) = 1,427. Notice that those born after 1980 now eclipse those born before 1950 by a stunning (38503 - 27968) = 10,535. Although we are very youth heavy in Whatcom County (thank you WWU, WWC, BTC), these proportions are now not unusual.  See similar numbers for all  of WA far below.

The future is here. Time for the DNC, local Democrats, and the rest of the world to wake up and smell the Millennials and the Berners. Youth and those of us still young enough not to be suffering cognitive degeneration will inherit what remains of the Earth. As my four year old likes to say: "There is no time to lose!" Perhaps I can also quote from the docking scene in "Interstellar": "Cooper, this is no time for caution!"

Monday, May 16, 2016

Illustrating the 42nd LD electorate for 2016; Post Under Construction

Voters of the 42nd LD Precincts sorted into groups of threes: 3 Votes for last GEs (2013,2014,2015), active but no votes for the last 3 GEs, NA for the last three GEs.  These three groups cover 61% of current active registered voterdb for LD42nd.  Based on 4/15/2016 WC voterdb. Click to enlarge. 
Find R (data.table) code here. Post under construction.

Saturday, May 14, 2016

Do you want to become a Democrat PCO in Whatcom County?

Click to Enlarge. Link to larger image here. See also "GIS Precinct Based Maps:Ballots Good, Jack and Joy"

We can talk all we want about the revolution, the corruption, the greed, the incompetence, the futility of the two party system. However, the reality of modern political life means working within the community to spread the revolution, to establish trust, to build alliances with many,  to turn out the vote, to assure that our votes are counted and to make sure the system doesn't fail our children like it has failed us.  

Next week is Filing Week in Whacom County. Would you like to become a Democrat Precinct Committee Officer? This is an elected position. There is no filing fee. Here is information from the WA Secretary of State on the PCO positions:

Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Summary of Posts on County, LD, CD WA data from 04/01/2015 and 05/01/2016

This is a summary of statistical posts I have written recently that may help 'Berniecrats' running for office.  I am pretty much a self taught stats head, however I mean well. Some of my data may be confusing.  If you are a Berniecrat (in WA especially) seeking election and you need help with your voterdb; send me some of your bonafides and I will see what I can do.  I choose to believe most Berniecrats are high IQ by default. I code in R (with help from PostgreSQL and Redis).

The bottom line in the state of WA in 2016 is this: The "Bernie Effect" has meant a huge increase in registrants in WA districts and counties of Millennials, GenXrs, and other generations that support Bernie. The WA state voterdb now has as many active registrants born after 1966 as before. In certain counties, those born after 1980 have swollen the voting rolls to never before seen numbers. All my demographic data suggest to me the influence of boomers and the pre WWII generations is diminishing in the face of a surge of dissatisfied youth looking for progressive change in WA state. As far as I can see, you will be campaigning to a "Bernie Rally" crowd in most cities, counties, and legislative districts in WA.  I can't but help believe from my data, that if you are a Berniecrat challenger to an incumbent, that you will need all these Berners to vote for you!

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Part IV Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Change in registrants for CC, LD, CD over the last 18.5 months

The tables below give the change in registered voters in WA over last 18.5 months (11.16.2014 - 05.01.2016). The active voting rolls increased 156,614 during those months with 135K of that increase coming from the top eleven counties. King County alone added 50K. Four counties (AS, CU, GA, LI) lost a total of  765 voters.

All Legislative Districts increased their totals. Eight LDs increased registrants by over 4000: 36, 34, 27, 43, 4, 21, 5, and 1.  Legislative District 36 has swollen to ~108K registrants, increasing by 5,481 since 11.16.2014. WA Congressional Districts have also seen large increases in registration. CD 7 increased by 20,837 registrants during those same 18.5 months. At the current pace, CD 7 will have 500K total registrants by 11/2017.  CD 7 and LD 36 (Seattle) are arguably the most Democratic and most liberal districts in the Pacific Northwest.

Sunday, May 8, 2016

Part III Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: How many Berners are out there?

The charts and data below the break are dedicated to all you Berners that want to sign up to run  for Legislative Districts next week, the third week of May, when Filing Week opens. See PDFs and FAQs here: 1234 . You are probably wondering how many Berners are out there, will they vote for you, can you really take back that LD and become a progressive force in the Olympia?  I will let you answer all the tough questions while you lie awake at night.  Below the break are some data and charts to chew on.

Sunday, May 1, 2016

Part I Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Birth Years of Registrants - 04/01/2016




Part II Data on WA Congressional, Legislative, County Districts: Registrants Partitioned by CC,LD,CD intersections - 04/01/2016

The top eleven most registered counties are 84% of the state's registered voters. Active WA voterdb registrants from County (CC), Congressional District (CD), and Legislative Districts(LD)  'partitions' are keyed and sorted by count, registration year, last year voted in the tables below the break. . Additional 'mixed queries' are far below. A 'partition' here I define as the unique number of active registrants that result from the (geographic) intersections of particular CC,CD or LD districts. Currently, there are 141 such unique partitions in WA, however the bottom nine exists simply because county voter rolls have not assigned CD and or LD or both to some small number of voters.

Monday, April 25, 2016

Sites Discussing Election Fraud

"We are not able to elect Bernie because there is so much of this fraud and voter suppression and rigging and caucus cheating going on. So it seems like magical thinking to continue to go forward with this campaign and not address the issue, to not fight the battle that will actually cost the election."
- Debbie Lusignan ("The Sane Progressive")

Update on "The Bernie Effect" in Whatcom County

New or reactivated registrations are increasingly younger and more urban in Whatcom County. Click to Enlarge.


Density Curves. Left: Birth Years of Voters who have left the voter rolls in the last 17 months. Right: Birth Year of Voters who have joined voter rolls in the last 17 months. Click to Enlarge.
4,962 net voters have been added to the Whatcom County voting rolls in the last 17 months. 12,428 voters have left or been marked inactive. 17,390 have registered themselves as active. (Yes. That is stupendous number for Whatcom County.) We are adding almost 10 registrants per day.  These registrants would be a mix of original registrations and re-activations  or address changes. The last 17 months have been responsible for 3.9% increase in the voter database since 11/22/2014.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Tim Robbins gives 'em hell for Bernie!!

"Bernie is not the obligatory progressive that will keep the left in line until the presumptive moderative nominee emerges. Bernie is not the Democrat party insider that will bow down to the elites in the party. We are done with that! We are done with compromising our ideals! We are done with triangulation and fear based politics! ...Change will not happen by choosing a candidate entirely entrenched in the dysfunction of the past."

-Tim Robbins at Washington Square Park New York Bernie Rally March 13, 2016 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tC-ZCD3gE1Y
 

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Mountains: The 'Bernie Effect', Berniecrats, Millennials Rising

This is a long technical post discussing the effect of the recent Presidential caucus campaign on voter registration in Whatcom County and Washington state and some of the implications of that surge in voter rolls for the November 2016 General Election. More complete technical paper is available (PDF) - RMF 

Saturday, April 2, 2016

"the most honest candidate there is..."

Rosario Dawson, Spike Lee, and Residente rock the Bernie Bronx Rally. Residente gives an incredible speech:  " I support Bernie Sanders because he is the most honest candidate there is."
(Source:  http://www.c-span.org/video/?407458-1/bernie-sanders-campaign-rally-south-bronx )
    

Friday, April 1, 2016

The Bernie Effect in Whatcom County

Note: This is for Whatcom County voterdb data only. For WA state data on "The Bernie Effect" please see links here.
The Bernie Effect: Change totals for voter registration are up 335% in the first three months of 2016 over  the same period in 2015. This may include as many as 4,295 new registrations.  Click to enlarge.  Most data below  the break is for "Registration Date" changes for the period January 1 - March 30, 2016.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

"WA Democrat Delegate Math"

On Saturday, I was the PCC  (Precinct Caucus Chair) for my Democrat precinct. Below are some of my thoughts. They might be helpful because Wyoming, Guam, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, North Dakota all have caucuses left to go.

For me, with a very large precinct (Precinct 208-  1200 plus registered voters, 166 caucus votes, 10 allotted delegates), everything worked like clockwork. The experience was well planned, well administrated, no personal contention, excellent helpers, etc.  I want to really thank the generous and energetic Democrat volunteers, tech help from WCC and my excellent Tally Clerk and Secretary.  I didn't get the in-house training. I just memorized the 28 page Precinct Caucus  script. I only had four days because my PCO  had just moved so I was busy reading and thinking and simulating votes before Saturday morning. 

However, I had tables, my laptop, auditorium projector, wireless mic.  I kept the script on the big screen and also a spreadsheet I had designed to simulate delegate math.  I think it is important as a PCC to be funny, humble, helpful, honest, fair, ask for help, let people speak. We did four rounds of Bernie v. Hillary.  We had to because it takes a while to count 166 sheets! Our Tally Clerk  actually numbered the corners sequentially of each voter's sheet she received as if she had been trained as a database professional! People really enjoyed speaking. I really had a great though exhausting morning. One subject that has come up is discussion afterwards is precinct caucus math. Below is my take on this math and the delegate selection process.

Monday, March 21, 2016

My Sunday with Bernie Believers

Bernie Believers line up early Sunday morning.
Early Sunday morning my accomplice and I car pooled from Bellingham to Bernie's Seattle rally at the Key Arena . A friend of our family had made it to the head of the line before 6:00 AM and posted as such on Facebook. "I think I can be at your house by eight," my fellow Bernie supporter said.  By 9:30 we had made Key Arena and were standing in a line probably about 200 ' x 6 people deep in the light rain. That line would quickly grow much longer. It was 2 1/2 hours before before the noon admission and you might think those hours would be an arduous wait, but then you probably have never stood in a crowd of Bernie Believers before.

Saturday, March 19, 2016

Democrat Caucus Locations for Saturday, March 26, 2016 9:30 AM Registration! 10:00 AM Start!

3:05 PM 3/19/2016 Update! Best links for finding your precinct and your  March 26th caucus site:

These links may also be informative for all of us Bernie Believers:
All this week long the 103 E. Holly Bernie office needs your help canvassing and phone banking. I just talked with the Bernie campaign representatives there and the focus is on making sure they get people going to the caucus and involved in the process. They need precinct captains. If you are willing to volunteer or help, make sure to make it to 103 E. Holly. There are a lot of Bernie groups on Facebook, but the official Bernie office needs your help canvassing the neighborhoods! Bring your smart phone to do this so you can download the MiniVAN app. If you are coming to the office to phone bank, bring your laptop, smart phone, chargers. You can also phone bank for Bernie at home. Be Ready for next Saturday: The March 26th Democrat Caucus!!

Friday, March 18, 2016

voterdb data as 03/16/2016

Age, Gender, City, Zip, LastUpdateDate, Status Reason, Ballot Counted for Last Five Primaries below the break.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Please Caucus!

Dear Readers:

On March 26th, the Whatcom Democrats will host this year's Democratic Caucus. This is your chance to caucus for your presidential candidate! Yes, you need to be there unless you filled out a surrogate form by March 18th. Otherwise, you need to be there  and stay there to cast your votes.  Make sure your address and registration is up to date at http://myvote.wa.gov , fill out the Democratic caucus precinct sign-in, find your caucus site  and come ready to debate, paricipate and cast votes! Be there early, doors will open after 9:00 AM! Should you want to do more, you can join the party, volunteer for the Democratic Party or you can volunteer for Bernie. You can probably volunteer for Hillary as well, but I will let you find your way to that :-).  Team Bernie is hosting two days of action today and tomorrow. Please see more after the break below.   Please Caucus!!!

Monday, March 14, 2016

Phone Banking for Bernie Sanders

I sat through the phone bank training for Benie Sanders:  https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/phonebank .  They have 15 minute interactive training going on all the day long and they could really use you for GOTV messages for the next two daysThe March 15 (!Tuesday!) primaries are 691 delegates:

  • Florida:214
  • Illinois:156
  • Ohio:143 delegates 
  • North Carolina:107
  • Missouri :71
These are the 3, 5, 7, 9 and 18 largest states . Together, they represent over 61M people or about 20% of the U.S. populationI am going to practice the script, acquaint with Bernie issues and start calling.   Person to person makes the biggest difference in politics. North Carolina and Florida are the last and perhaps the most important southern states for Democrats because they are large and Democrats win them sometimes. However, Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio are critical as well. More information is here: https://go.berniesanders.com/page/content/march15/

For those of you who haven't done phone banking before, you will probably need a laptop or tablet, dedicated phone line or cell phone, cell buds or headset for your analog phone, comfortable chair. It seems daunting when you first start and then the script just falls into place. Sticking to the script and seeming authentic isn't as hard as it seems after your first ten calls.  It is good practice talking and working with others.  This is something that is critical right now you can do if you have the time.

Saturday, March 12, 2016

The failed "Southern Strategy" of the 2016 Democrats

Click to Enlarge: Sum of all Democrat votes divided into CVAP_EST 2014

Code for this post. [1,2]

We have to ask ourselves at some point: What are the mechanisms for the suppression of the black vote in the South and how do we define it? Is it any different than in regions outside the South? The Democrats lost 910 legislative seats nationwide between 2009 - 2014. This happened here in WA as well. But it *really* happened in the South where literally dozens of legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican.