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Thursday, September 17, 2020

The 42nd LD race for November 2020 in three charts

Provocative and timely data on what will be a razor thin series of margins in the competitive 42nd LD:

ratio =  JenniferSefzik/(JenniferSefzik + SharonShewmake)

  • 20 'purple' precincts with a ratio between .45, .559
  • 45 'blue' precincts with a ratio between 0, .449
  • 56 'red' precincts with a ratio between .56, 1
  • No.Party =  <NA> Not Voted in Presidential Primary
  • Republican = Selected Republican preferred party in Presidential Primary
  • Democrat = Selected Democrat preferred party in Presidential Primary
Tables and charts below. Click to enlarge the charts!

Sunday, August 23, 2020

"Too late" had "too much volume" in WA 2020 Primary. Was there a failure in voting week mail delivery?

John Servais has an important post on NW Citizen that discusses the need for  more drop boxes amidst a federal assault on Vote By Mail (VBM) in the United States. In theory, if you put your ballot on your stoop in Whatcom County on election morning, it should be shipped to Seattle for a post stamp before 8:00 PM that evening and then returned as an "Accepted" ballot Wednesday morning. One supposition is that such last minute ballots were not post-stamped in a timely fashion in this very high turnout Primary. Check https://voter.votewa.gov/ to determine your ballot disposition for this election.

 Data below the break. This post has tables which benefit from a wide screen. Here are my notes:

  • Challenges Statewide: The largest rejected ballot category ("Too Late") happened 20,958 times. There is no ballot cure for "Too Late". 1.5% of all ballots statewide had a final status of rejected. The top rejected ballot categories were:  "Too Late", "Signature Does Not Match", "Unsigned".
  • Return Method: By Mail reported 3:2 over Drop Box statewide. This ratio would vary by county. See "Drop Box vs Mail by County" in "Additional Tables" far below. Important to note that King County received almost all of the vote by Mail. 7,365 ballots were marked "Too Late" in King County. See "Top Three Challenges by County" in "Additional Tables" far below.

  • Return Method by Challenge: Counts for top three challenge categories for "Drop Box" and "Mail" return methods. All but 304 of the 20,958 "Too Late" rejected ballots came by mail. The amount of rejected mailed ballots far exceeds those dropped in a box. Drop boxes are promptly closed at 8 pm in most locations:

   Return Method Signature Does Not Match Too Late Unsigned

1:     Drop Box                     4989      304     1035

2:         Mail                     6925    20488     4750

  • Received Date for top three challenge categories. Many of the 20,488 "Too Late" ballots received by mail are two days late or more. About half of the "Too Late "  ballots are 6 days late or more possibly indicating substantial mail delays. 

Thursday, August 20, 2020

Charts from the Whatcom 2020 Primary

 Charts below cover Whatcom County Precincts for:

  1. Primary Ballots and August Registration by Presidential Preferred Party
  2. Primary Ballots and August Registration by Age (Decades)
Click to enlarge the charts. These charts have a lot of detail and small print and really need a widescreen.




Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Below are some GIS snapshots from the August 4th Primary

 Below are some GIS snapshots from the August 4th Primary. Click to enlarge the snapshots:

  1. Presidential primary declared Democrats registered for the 2020 Primary.
  2. Sharon Shewmake votes for the 42nd LD as of Friday 08/07/2020.

Sunday, August 9, 2020

The August 4 2020 Primary in Whatcom County

The August 4 2020 Primary in Whatcom County will have at least a 60% turnout. As of 08/07/2020 , here is how the result and matchback data stand: 

Friday, March 13, 2020

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Charts for 3/11/2020 Presidential Primary Data

Click to enlarge the Presidential Primary Cure Form JPG.   Go to https://voter.votewa.gov/ to check your "Ballot Status" today before the election certification is over for your county!
Below the break find three charts based on 3/11/2020 Presidential Primary matchback data and also February VRDB registration vs. turnout and accepted vs. turnout for:
  • Party
  • Decade
  • County
I may add Gender by Age, Party, and  County later.  Remember the lower Republican numbers are because only DJT was only one on the ballot for Republicans.
  • BOT == Both parties selected.These ballots will be rejected unless cured before certification.
  • NEI == "Neither party selected. These ballots will be rejected unless cured before certification.
  • FVRDB == February Voter Registration Data Base
  • TO == Turnout
  • Accepted.TO == Accepted Turnout
  • Decade == Age%/%10  e.g. 1: {18,19}, 2: {20:29}, etc
  •  Go to https://voter.votewa.gov/ to check your "Ballot Status" today before the election certification is over for your county!
If you like my work  and (god forbid!) my warnings have helped save your vote then consider a PayPal donation from the side widget. I am nobody's asset. "I fight for the users". Click to enlarge the tables:

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Data from 3/11/2020 Matchback

Accepted, Rejected, No Party and All Other Challenges by Age. Click to Enlarge

Data below from 3/11/202 matchback (day after election)

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Data from 03/10/2020 5PM Matchback:

Data below the break from the 03/10/2020 5PM Matchback:

Monday 03.09.2020 by County


Ballots Accepted/Rejected (Challenged) by Age Distribution

The charts above cover matchbacks and Ballot Statistics for 03.09.2010 5pm. Click on the Charts to Enlarge. It will be a scandal if a tight Bernie/Biden race is decided by the loss of 75K rejected ballots most of which (60K) are "NoParty" from and older vote contemporaneous with a weak youth vote. Below the break is a merged table of Presidential Primary ballot report status and ballot statistics for Monday 03.09.2020 5pm. The fields are: Democrat, Republican, Undeclared, Active (Voters), Voted (Ballots), Turnout. Note that real turnout will probably be much lower for many counties because Undeclared Party ballots will be discarded if not cured. Cure your damn ballots! Check https://voter.votewa.gov/. Check 'Ballot Status'. Call  or visit your County elections department if you are not "Accepted".

merge(Party,BS,by="County",all=TRUE)[,.(BallotsReceived=fsum(Ballots))]
   BallotsReceived
1:         1597237

merge(Party,BS,by="County",all=TRUE)[,.(D=fsum(D),R=fsum(R))]
        D      R
1: 984969 551396

merge(Party,BS,by="County",all=TRUE)[,.(DplusR=fsum(D) + fsum(R))]
    DplusR
1: 1536365

1597237 - 1536365
[1] 60872

Saturday, March 7, 2020

Friday 03.06.2020 by County

Below the break is a merged table of Presidential Primary ballot report status and ballot statistics for Friday 03.06.2020. The fields are: Democrat, Republican, Undeclared, Active (Voters), Voted (Ballots), Turnout. Note that real turnout will probably be much lower for many counties because Undeclared Party ballots will be discarded.

merge(Party,BS,by="County",all=TRUE)[,.(BallotsReceived=fsum(Ballots))]
   BallotsReceived
1:         1362696 # Total Ballots Received

merge(Party,BS,by="County",all=TRUE)[,.(D=fsum(D),R=fsum(R))]
        D      R
1: 798092 507449   # D and R ballots declared

merge(Party,BS,by="County",all=TRUE)[,.(DplusR=fsum(D) + fsum(R))]
    DplusR
1: 1305541         # Total D + R ballots declared

1362696 - 1305541
[1] 57155          # Ballots with Undeclared Party to Date

Friday, March 6, 2020

'7 Easy Steps for Voting in the WA Presidential Primary' and 'What Happens in you Don't Follow the Instructions!'

An excellent web site is providing the service of listing the ballot status of all WA voters. Please see https://votewashington.info/voter/wa to check whether or not your ballot has been accepted or not. The WA state site www.voteWA.gov is  the most official and straight forward path. Check "Ballot Status" after logging in . -RMF

As of Thursday's 03.05.2020 Presidential Primary matchback, "No Party" declarations (Votes without the proper party declaration) make up about 7% of all Ballots. By the end of this well participated election, tens of thousands of voters could have their ballots rejected  for not declaring a party. Check your "Ballot Status" at www.voteWA.gov . Ballot Return Statistics can be found here. Call your local county elections to "cure" your ballot.  Click to enlarge the charts and screenshots. Also see:




All State Rejected vs Accepted Ballots by Age and Challenged Groups: 'Non Party' Challenges vs All Other Challenges. 


If you did not correctly fill out the above on your voter envelope, your ballot has been rejected. Screenshot from:7 Easy Steps for Voting in the WA Presidential Primary

Sunday, March 1, 2020

'7 Easy Steps for Voting in the WA Presidential Primary' and 'What Happens in you Don't Follow the Instructions!'

3/3/2020 Update: An excellent web site is providing the service of listing the ballot status of all WA voters. Please see https://votewashington.info/voter/wa to check whether or not your ballot has been accepted or not. The WA state site www.voteWA.gov is  the most official and straight forward path. Check "Ballot Status" after logging in . -RMF

As of Friday's 02.28.2020 Presidential Primary matchback, "No Party" declarations (Votes without the proper party declaration) make up about 7% of all Ballots. By the end of this well participated election, tens of thousands of voters could have their ballots rejected  for not declaring a party. Check your "Ballot Status" at www.voteWA.gov . Call your local county elections to "cure" your ballot.  Click to enlarge the charts and screenshots. Also see:






All State Rejected vs Accepted Ballots by Age and Challenged Groups: 'Non Party' Challenges vs All Other Challenges. 


If you did not correctly fill out the above on your voter envelope, your ballot has been rejected. Screenshot from:7 Easy Steps for Voting in the WA Presidential Primary 

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Whatcom School Districts Election on February 11, 2020


Whatcom County school districts in block colors with precinct outlines in white.

All Whatcom County school districts  (and therefore the entire county or 146K voters ) have elections this February 11.  As of this Wednesday morning (2/05/2020), 27,030 plus ballots have been returned to Whatcom County Elections. Please see http://www.whatcomcounty.us/1732/Current-Election .  As of this Wednesday morning (2/05/2020), statewide turnout is about 19.2%. Please see https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx .    You can check your registration or your 'Ballot Status' at voteWA.gov.  Please see https://voter.votewa.gov/WhereToVote.aspx. If you haven't received your ballot by now or your ballot status contact Whatcom County Elections.  This is a stampless ballot. The districts in this election include:

  • Bellingham School District 501
  • Ferndale School District 502
  • Blaine School District 503
  • Lynden School District 504
  • Meridian School District 505
  • Nooksack Valley School District 506
  • Mount Baker School District 507
  • Fire Protection District 8 

Thursday, January 23, 2020

Who owns real estate now?

Below are some articles with quoted selections I am currently reading that discuss ownership of real estate in urban centers in America and across the globe. I am thinking about these issues:

(1) How does the 'ghost ownership' and/or large scale 'corporate ownership' of housing effect our economy and social infrastructure?
(2) How does housing ownership as an 'asset class' effect pricing and supply?
(3) At one point does an 'over supply' of 'socially mismatched' housing types increase risk of a recession in the building industry?
(4) How do 'ghost ownership', 'over-pricing and speculation', mismatched market supply, rental and housing vacancy rates effect homelessness rates?
(5) Can we use Marxist economic theory to analyze the efficiency of the US housing market to make stronger cases for the use of:
  • vacancy taxes like those used in Washington, D.C. and Vancouver, BC.
  • more 'social justice' focused permit regulation and zoning
  • stronger local condemnation  and forfeiture laws in the case of "washing machine"  or laundered housing assets
  • what local actions can we use as citizens (e.g. more informed  and open ownership data, stronger condemnation laws, vacancy taxes, 'social justice' implementations of housing permits, etc.) to create a more fair and balanced housing market?

Monday, January 13, 2020

Rental Vacancy Rates across America

Sample data selection from 2015 - 2019(Q3 only) from the Census 2019 Housing Vacancies and Home Ownership . Click to enlarge.

Q3 Census data for 2019 Housing Vacancies and Home Ownership is now available.  The following charts and graphs are rental vacancy information.  Some researchers have come to believe that so called "ghost ownership" and high rental vacancy rates have created an artificial lack of housing supply (1).   Others believe there isn't enough home construction (2). I sought to look at the latest data for rental vacancies (up to Q3 2019) from the Census:
The table below gives Total Rented (43.2M)  and Total Rentals Vacant (3.1M) across different regions of the U.S. for Q3 2019.  I am using these two Census categories from the most recent housing data:
  • 8 RNTOCC Renter Occupied Housing Units K
  • 12 RENT Vacant Housing Units for Rent K
For the VacancyRate I am using ('adhoc') :  TotalVacant/(TotalRented+TotalVacant):

   GEO Region TotalRented TotalVacant VancancyRate
1:  US      1    43243000     3183000          6.9
2:  NE      2     8285000      477000          5.4
3:  MW      3     8472000      646000          7.1
4:  SO      4    15658000     1512000          8.8
5:  WE      5    10827000      548000          4.8

Friday, November 22, 2019

Yakima vs. Whatcom Historical Turnout

An interesting and provocative article in the New York Times looks at Yakima County as prototypical of America's racial divide. What follows in this post is election turnout history and CVAP data comparing Yakima and Whatcom Counties.

Yakima GE Turnout (tan) vs. Whatcom GE Turnout (blue-gray). Note the differences between odd years (local) and even years (federal). Also note the spikes for Presidential years (2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016).  Visually, there is a marked increase in the difference between Whatcom and Yakima turnout over time. Turnout is defined here as TotalBallots/TotalVoters. Data above from WA SoS Voter Participation data. Click to enlarge the chart.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

State Initiative Totals, Differences for 11/12/2019


State Initiative Totals:


Race                 Maintained Repealed Approved Rejected     Yes     No
Advisory Vote No. 20     659713  1118043       
Advisory Vote No. 21     738362  1049771       
Advisory Vote No. 22     676612  1102429       
Advisory Vote No. 23    1213133   597736       
Advisory Vote No. 24     657735  1098464       
Advisory Vote No. 25     789956   976514       
Advisory Vote No. 26     791661   972060       
Advisory Vote No. 27     704892  1087500       
Advisory Vote No. 28     979432   788173       
Advisory Vote No. 29     623961  1144985       
Advisory Vote No. 30     782938   983966       
Advisory Vote No. 31    1005303   762931       
Measure No. 976                                               1017045 902004
Resolution No. 8200                       1207513   642646          
Measure No. 88                            920949    936155           

State Initiative Differences:


Race                  M-R      A-R    Y-N
Advisory Vote No. 20 -458330     
Advisory Vote No. 21 -311409     
Advisory Vote No. 22 -425817     
Advisory Vote No. 23  615397     
Advisory Vote No. 24 -440729     
Advisory Vote No. 25 -186558     
Advisory Vote No. 26 -180399     
Advisory Vote No. 27 -382608     
Advisory Vote No. 28  191259     
Advisory Vote No. 29 -521024     
Advisory Vote No. 30 -201028     
Advisory Vote No. 31  242372     
Measure No. 976                         115041
Resolution No. 8200             564867     
Measure No. 88                 -15206

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Some GE 2019 Analysis: Historical Summary and some Demographics

At over 2M votes, GE2019 will be the largest odd year volume turnout in recent WA history.  I will wait for the final results to compare turnout percentages. Here is where we stand as of the Monday (11/11) after election week:

Some projected turnout for GE 2019 as of 11/11/2019  state matchback:

          Registered  Voted   Turnout  Current_Date
Total 4,503,766 1,927,555 42.8% 11/11/2019

Projected  Turnout PCT  ==
(1,927,555 + 82,396) / 4,503,766 = 44.6%  with 82,396 (to be counted as of 11/11)

Projected Returns  ==
1,927.555 + 82,396 = 2,009,951


Historical odd year (local election) turnouts:


         Registered  Voted  Turnout  Final_Date
Total 4,265,433 1,582,481 37.1% 11/28/2017
Total 3,974,947 1,528,272 38.45% 11/30/2015
Total 3,914,786 1,772,290 45.27% 11/26/2013
Total 3,658,413 1,936,950 52.95% 12/06/2011
Total 3,583,278 1,823,364 50.89% 11/24/2009