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Monday, October 19, 2020

GE2020: Four Charts for Whatcom County

These charts all aggregate gender by age group voting patterns in Whatcom County. The top chart is from October 2020 VRDB data. A non empty 'LastVoted' field simply means there is some history of electoral participation for that voter. The other three charts come from WA State elections voter participation data: Whatcom GE 2016, Presidential Primary 2020, Primary2020. Click on the charts to enlarge. There are several inferences one can make for Whatcom County and perhaps the nation by looking at these charts:

(1) Women register to vote more than men. But the dynamic I think that is really important is that women vote at a higher percentage of their registration than men. Disinterested, non voting men are thus a large target group. The 'older' part of that disinterested group of men (45 years of age or greater) will vote substantially more in Presidential general elections. That may help explain DJT's 2016 victory.

(2) 'Older voters' (45 years of age or greater) bring a more significant vote by volume and by registration to most elections. In all elections, this group of 'older voters' outperforms those that are younger both by volume and percentage turnout of registered voters per age group.

(3) Presidential general elections increase turnout even over Presidential primaries themselves and over Presidential election year primaries. Many who wouldn't cast a ballot otherwise vote in a Presidential general election. This increased turnout by low propensity voters probably creates unpredictable losses and victories during Presidential general election years.

(4) The number of active voters 45 and over who have not voted in any election is surprisingly small. 18 - 34 years of age are probably more prone to leaving ballots on their nightstand. But in fairness, the mobility of those ages probably produces many new first time voters. Given those generation's predilection for liberalism/activism, it is probably a provable inference that many of those lost votes are Democrats.

 Click on the charts to enlarge.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Independent Expenditures, Organizational and Individual contributions by Legislative District as of 10.13.2020

I find $30M in Independent Expenditures (ICE) and Organizational plus Individual contributions for all WA 2020 statehouse (representative and senate) elections as of 10.13.2020. Probably more to come! Full list below the break. Click to enlarge the chart: