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Saturday, October 31, 2020

GE 10/30/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

For 10/30/2020, over 3.15M ballots are returned in WA with 37,696 challenged. Almost 24,863 of these challenges are signature not matching . Another 5,141  are missing signatures. Voters should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors

For turnout, please see https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx  10.1 % or 318,444 of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 251,000 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA". These numbers suggest an increasing number of 'first time' and 'low propensity' voters in this very high turnout election.  And that's significant since it suggests that by Tuesday this group may well be 20% or more of the electorate:

round((318444 + 251000) / 3155177,3) * 100 =

18 percent of returned ballots are potentially from 'low propensity' or 'first time' voters.

General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx .  

Thursday, October 29, 2020

GE 10/29/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

 For 10/29/2020, over 2.95M ballots are returned in WA with 35,658 challenged. Almost 22,973 of these challenges are signature not matching . Another ~5K are missing signatures. Voters should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors

King county leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage at 62.8% Please see https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx   9.6% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 223,315 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA". These numbers suggest an increasing number of 'first time' and 'low propensity' voters in this very high turnout election. General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx .  

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

GE 10/28/2020 Ballot Return Status Report

For 10/28/2020, over 2.75M ballots are returned in WA with 34,217 challenged. Almost 21,563 of these challenges are signature not matching . Another ~5K are missing signatures. Voters should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors

King county leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage at 56.3% Please See https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx    9.2% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 197,407 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA". These numbers suggest an increasing number of 'first time' and 'low propensity' voters in this very high turnout election. General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx

Based on past elections performances, a reasonable prediction for total votes would be 250K for the next two days then ~400K/day for the next 5 days. However, such a prediction would result in 5.25M returned ballots. Current total voters for this election are 4,866,924 although registrations will continue through election. 

GE 2020 10/27 Ballot Return Status Report

For 10/27/2020, over 2.56M ballots returned with ~32K challenged ballots in WA. Almost 19K of these ballots are signature matching challenges. Another ~5K are missing signatures. Voters will should visit https://voter.votewa.gov and check their ballot status. For ballot status other than "Accepted", voters may want to contact or visit their county election department websites found at https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/auditors .


King county leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage at 53% based on October 7 VRDB registrants.  However King's current turnout percentage is actually 56% based on the latest registration data (Please See https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx ) This would suggest increases from October first time voter registration and/or reactivations.    8.7% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 174,176 of all returned ballots were by voters whose 'LastVoted' field is "NA" suggesting an increasing number of 'first time' voters in this election. General election return ballot data can be found: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/2020-general-election.aspx .  Based on past elections performances, a reasonable prediction for total votes would be 250K for the next two days then ~500K/day for the next 5 days. However, such a prediction would result in 5.25M returned ballots. Current total voters for this election are 4,866,924, although registrations will continue through election. Regardless of this comment, turnout will likely be record setting for every county in WA.


GE.Matchback code now in my Github: https://github.com/rferrisx/GE.Matchback.Analysis/blob/main/BallotReturnAnalysis.r Use at your own risk.

Monday, October 26, 2020

GE 2020 10/26 Ballot Return Status Report

10/26 Ballot Statistics Return

Over 2.2M ballots returned with ~29K challenged ballots. Almost 16K of these challenged are signature matching challenges.  Spokane leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage at 51% however four of the top five counties (SP, KI, SN,CR) are approaching 50% turnout. PI is last in that list with 38% turnout.  8.1% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier. 141,464 of all returned ballots were by voters who have no 'LastVoted' field suggesting an increasing number of 'first time' voters in this election.

GE 2020 Ballot Return Status 10/24/2020 :

10/24 Ballot Statistics Return
Over 2M ballots returned. ~27K challenges. Spokane leads the the top five counties in turnout percentage. 7.6% of all returned ballots were by voters who last voted in 2018 or earlier.

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

WA 2020 General Election Ballot Return Data Page 10/20/2020 : 10/23/2020

This is a ballot return data analysis page for WA 2020 General election. I will compile as many aggregations as possible as sequential posting until 'Election Results' are returned. See https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ for more information. Beware the smaller fonts for tables.  'Ballot Statistics' data comes from:

Monday, October 19, 2020

GE2020: Four Charts for Whatcom County

These charts all aggregate gender by age group voting patterns in Whatcom County. The top chart is from October 2020 VRDB data. A non empty 'LastVoted' field simply means there is some history of electoral participation for that voter. The other three charts come from WA State elections voter participation data: Whatcom GE 2016, Presidential Primary 2020, Primary2020. Click on the charts to enlarge. There are several inferences one can make for Whatcom County and perhaps the nation by looking at these charts:

(1) Women register to vote more than men. But the dynamic I think that is really important is that women vote at a higher percentage of their registration than men. Disinterested, non voting men are thus a large target group. The 'older' part of that disinterested group of men (45 years of age or greater) will vote substantially more in Presidential general elections. That may help explain DJT's 2016 victory.

(2) 'Older voters' (45 years of age or greater) bring a more significant vote by volume and by registration to most elections. In all elections, this group of 'older voters' outperforms those that are younger both by volume and percentage turnout of registered voters per age group.

(3) Presidential general elections increase turnout even over Presidential primaries themselves and over Presidential election year primaries. Many who wouldn't cast a ballot otherwise vote in a Presidential general election. This increased turnout by low propensity voters probably creates unpredictable losses and victories during Presidential general election years.

(4) The number of active voters 45 and over who have not voted in any election is surprisingly small. 18 - 34 years of age are probably more prone to leaving ballots on their nightstand. But in fairness, the mobility of those ages probably produces many new first time voters. Given those generation's predilection for liberalism/activism, it is probably a provable inference that many of those lost votes are Democrats.

 Click on the charts to enlarge.

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Independent Expenditures, Organizational and Individual contributions by Legislative District as of 10.13.2020

I find $30M in Independent Expenditures (ICE) and Organizational plus Individual contributions for all WA 2020 statehouse (representative and senate) elections as of 10.13.2020. Probably more to come! Full list below the break. Click to enlarge the chart: