Friday, November 10, 2023

Update on Challenged Ballots from the 11/09/2023 state matchback

Some data I extracted from the 11/09/2023 state matchback is below. Many challenged ballots won't be 'cured' by November 27th. For example, ~11K "Signature Does Not Match" voters may well be 'disenfranchised' this election. This happens every election. Please check your ballot status at: https://voter.votewa.gov . If your ballot is rejected, please follow your local election department instructions and check https://voter.votewa.gov to make sure your ballot was 'cured' by Nov. 27, 2023 (certification). All this data is current as of 11/09/2023. This data will change as ballot tabulation and ballot challenges increase. Some links for more election information is posted far below. The R 3.4 code I  wrote for this is here.

# WA cast ballots to date (11/09/2023).
# Not all have been tabulated = 1736804 
# Current WA Rejected Ballots = 21175
# Top 10 Challenge Reasons Statewide (All 39 Counties)

             ChallengeReason     N
 1: Signature Does Not Match 10849
 2:                 Unsigned  5253
 3:                   Review  2502
 4:                 Too Late  1408
 5:                     HOLD   375
 6:         Other than Voter   222
 7:      Ballot Style Change   219
 8:         Canvassing Board    63
 9:           Empty Envelope    58
10:         Other Than Voter    57

# Whatcom cast ballots to date. Not all have been tabulated = 82223
# Current Whatcom rejected ballots  = 1146
# Top Challenge Reasons for Whatcom
            ChallengeReason   N
1: Signature Does Not Match 642
2:                 Too Late 256
3:                 Unsigned 160
4:      Ballot Style Change  79
5:           Empty Envelope   7
6:                   Review   2
 
# Rejected Ballots ranked by Percentage For Cities with Voters > 40000

         City Rejected Voters RejectedPCT
1:  VANCOUVER      799  54869   1.4561957
2: BELLINGHAM      585  47398   1.2342293
3:    SEATTLE     2645 223867   1.1815051
4:    SPOKANE     1031  94957   1.0857546
5:    OLYMPIA      257  41776   0.6151858
6:     TACOMA      297  53596   0.5541458
 
# Rejected Ballots ranked by Percentage For Counties with Voters > 80000

      County Rejected Voters RejectedPCT
1:     Clark     1414  88950   1.5896571
2:   Whatcom     1146  82223   1.3937706
3: Snohomish     2322 186102   1.2477029
4:      King     5779 513474   1.1254708
5:   Spokane     1629 156330   1.0420265
6:    Pierce      853 164957   0.5171045

Clark County is rejecting nearly 1 out of every 63 ballots.
88950/1414
[1] 62.90665

Whatcom County is rejecting nearly 1 out of every 72 ballots.
82223/1146
[1] 71.74782

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