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| Left: Total Votes: Top Five Counties in WA 2012 General Election Right: Total Votes: King County + Second Five Counties in WA 2012 General Election |
Preface
I've documented the Powershell 3.0 code for this data. Real data analysts are most probably using other technology. But PS 3.0 will do for the points I want to make today. In addition, a Ph.D in data mining is not required to use Powershell to analyze your local election or PDC data. Powershell 3.0 and .NET 4.5 come as updates to Windows 7 and they are standard with Windows 8. This post counts as pretty 'wonky'. There a lots of numbers and synthetic ratios in this post and (gasp!!) links to code, but I did my best to keep this post interesting. After all, I intend this post to be for those activists who value the vote and want to increase their community's electoral participation. Comment below or email me any errors. Click on the images to enlarge.The Data Analysts are Magicians after all
In a networked world whose internal clocks are all manned by financial analysts, programmers, hackers, scientists, mathematicians and statisticians; the 'data analyst' is now the acknowledged Merlin of our time. In a series of recent articles, Mother Jones lays out how the Obama campaign tech staff overwhelmed the Romney/Ryan money machine with intelligence. In reality, I think most of America simply wasn't going to put another stupid white man in power. However, there was more to this election than national sentiment.CVAP is the Citizen Voting Age Population. This is an important Census measurement used for the apportionment of government funding and also used by voting analysts to understand population dynamics. In this case, I am using CVAP County based data to assess WA top ten counties as ranked by total ballots for election of 2012. It is important to note that the CVAP numbers are from 2010 ACS (American Community Survey) and the 11/21 voting totals are still not quite complete or certified. But this is typical of population and voter registration data. Both are always a moving targets with real-time numbers difficult to come by.
The top ten WA counties constituted 82% of the 2012 WA vote: 2590715/3159570=0.8199
King County's vote alone constituted nearly 31% of the total 2012 WA vote: 973088/3159570=0.3079
So how these ten counties vote is critical for WA election results. From left to right, we see the total vote, registered voters, the 'turnout' (e.g. total vote / registered voters), the census derived 'CVAP' (e.g. Citizen Voting Age Population), the CVAP_TV (e.g. total vote / CVAP), and the CVAP_RV (e.g. registered voters / CVAP). Probably due to the influence of organizations like OFA, most of the top ten counties have reasonably high turnouts in 2012. Some counties (King, Whatcom, Benton) have over 70% of their CVAP returning votes. King County voting performance was exceptional. By these statistics, King County has over 90% of their voting age population registered. Among this top ten, King County has the highest CVAP_TV percentage, nearly 75%:
County TotalVote RegVtr T/O_PCT CVAP CVAP_TV_% CVAP_RV_%
King 973088 1170638 83.189 1299290 74.893 90.099
Pierce 349377 442985 78.86 554975 62.959 79.837
Snohomish 334354 415504 80.461 478440 69.832 86.81
Spokane 227007 282442 80.346 342060 66.398 82.555
Clark 193102 243155 79.453 284190 67.911 85.52
Thurston 125230 160302 78.186 180595 69.354 88.744
Kitsap 125052 152681 81.922 183875 68.048 83.008
Whatcom 104680 125485 83.427 144535 72.412 86.891
Benton 80428 97849 82.133 111425 72.104 87.826
Yakima 78397 106452 73.663 136075 57.655 78.274
If we look more closely at similar sized counties, we can see what a difference registration efforts make in county electoral influence. Pierce County for example, has 76,535 more citizens of voting age than Snohomish County. Yet Snohomish County turned in a total vote of only 15,023 less than Pierce. Yakima and Benton Counties are an extreme example of how voter registration efforts can magnify the influence of a county electorate. Yakima County has an (April 2012) population of 246K vs. 180K for Benton. The 2010 CVAP statistics show Yakima with 24,650 greater voting age population. Yet Benton (t/o_pct=82%; cvap_tv_pct=72%) managed to produce 2,031 more total ballots than Yakima County! Whatcom County, which is actually the ninth largest county in population, made the 'elite eight' of 2012 ; each of which counties exceeded over 100K total ballots.
Many small counties in WA really make an effort to get out the vote. Here I list every county that has a CVAP_TV percentage over 70%. You have to hand it to the only archipelago county in WA state. Consisting of a reputed 172 islands that are connected only by boats and a WA ferry system, San Juan County has nearly registered every voting age person in their island paradise (12,019 out of 12,455). Their turnout of registered voters is tops in WA State (88.5%). Show me another county somewhere in the world with such a disparate, disconnected topography that induces so much of it's citizenry to vote.
County TotalVote RegVtr T/O_PCT CVAP CVAP_TV_% CVAP_RV_%
San Juan 10640 12019 88.544 12455 85.473 96.459
Jefferson 20046 22756 88.029 24680 81.271 92.217
Wahkiakum 2337 2829 82.639 3105 75.218 91.111
King 973088 1170638 83.189 1299290 74.893 90.099
Lincoln 5963 7059 84.461 7990 74.67 88.383
Columbia 2275 2661 85.445 3120 72.967 85.215
Garfield 1292 1531 84.381 1775 72.762 86.206
Whatcom 104680 125485 83.427 144535 72.412 86.891
Benton 80428 97849 82.133 111425 72.104 87.826
Klickitat 10490 13093 80.114 14760 71.07 88.706
Stevens 22614 28362 79.754 32045 70.584 88.567
Island 42516 50389 84.344 60290 70.516 83.548
But as most of this article shows, Whatcom County also played way over its head this year. For a county such as ours to put up percentages like we did this year speaks to a sustained effort to increase voter participation. So let us look at how much more voting age population is still out there waiting to be galvanized. CVAP_TOTP represents the number of potential voting age population untapped; either not registered or registered and not voting.
County TotalVote RegVoters CVAP_TOTP CVAP_REGP
------ --------- --------- --------- ---------
King 973088 1170638 326202 128652
Pierce 349377 442985 205598 111990
Snohomish 334354 415504 144086 62936
Spokane 227007 282442 115053 59618
Clark 193102 243155 91088 41035
Kitsap 125052 152681 58823 31194
Yakima 78397 106452 57678 29623
Thurston 125230 160302 55365 20293
Whatcom 104680 125485 39855 19050
Benton 80428 97849 30997 13576
The top five counties (King, Pierce, Snohomish, Spokane, Clark) have 882,027 citizens of voting age that did not participate in 2012. 404,231 were registered but did not vote in 2012. Those 900K citizens should really be worth some get out the vote efforts. The second five counties have 242,718 untapped in 2012 of which 113,736 were registered but did not vote in 2012. This means there were 995,763 or nearly one million who did not participate in the 2012 election in these 10 counties, but in theory could have. In reality, these numbers are tempered by any number of factors, but one million is still a number worth fighting for. If you live in WA (specifically one of these counties) and want to increase electoral participation in your community, please keep reading this blog. One thing I have discovered about political change: local efforts and knowledge trump almost anything else. Here are all the counties for the 2012 Election sorted by total votes:
County TotalVote RegVoters Turnout_PCT CVAP CVAP_TV_PCT CVAP_RV_PCT
------ --------- --------- ----------- ---- ----------- -----------
King 973088 1170638 83.189 1299290 74.893 90.099
Pierce 349377 442985 78.86 554975 62.959 79.837
Snohomish 334354 415504 80.461 478440 69.832 86.81
Spokane 227007 282442 80.346 342060 66.398 82.555
Clark 193102 243155 79.453 284190 67.911 85.52
Thurston 125230 160302 78.186 180595 69.354 88.744
Kitsap 125052 152681 81.922 183875 68.048 83.008
Whatcom 104680 125485 83.427 144535 72.412 86.891
Benton 80428 97849 82.133 111425 72.104 87.826
Yakima 78397 106452 73.663 136075 57.655 78.274
Skagit 56204 67769 82.934 80625 69.792 84.009
Cowlitz 45396 58555 77.552 73145 62.099 80.072
Island 42516 50389 84.344 60290 70.516 83.548
Clallam 38608 47157 81.825 56045 68.853 84.103
Lewis 34383 44287 77.62 54690 62.821 80.974
Chelan 32723 40293 81.239 48095 68.067 83.7
Grays Harbor 29083 38307 75.904 53625 54.226 71.45
Mason 28368 35268 80.42 45135 62.81 78.126
Grant 27949 36499 76.509 49280 56.716 74.092
Walla Walla 25380 31844 79.701 40460 62.788 78.748
Franklin 22985 29760 77.227 33570 68.479 88.619
Stevens 22614 28362 79.754 32045 70.584 88.567
Jefferson 20046 22756 88.029 24680 81.271 92.217
Kittitas 18357 22062 83.283 31165 58.977 70.748
Whitman 17323 21272 81.436 34430 50.334 61.737
Okanogan 17151 21344 80.337 28350 60.445 75.246
Douglas 15228 19140 79.558 22935 66.342 83.419
Pacific 10725 13431 79.899 16480 65.056 81.47
San Juan 10640 12019 88.544 12455 85.473 96.459
Klickitat 10490 13093 80.114 14760 71.07 88.706
Asotin 10055 13632 73.716 16485 60.916 82.662
Pend Oreille 6813 8264 82.479 9875 68.911 83.671
Lincoln 5963 7059 84.461 7990 74.67 88.383
Skamania 5569 6941 80.291 8250 67.503 84.133
Adams 4887 6457 75.652 8990 54.388 71.897
Ferry 3495 4475 78.179 5715 61.146 78.399
Wahkiakum 2337 2829 82.639 3105 75.218 91.111
Columbia 2275 2661 85.445 3120 72.967 85.215
Garfield 1292 1531 84.381 1775 72.762 86.206
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| Left: Potential New Voters: Top Five Counties in WA 2012 General Election Right: Potential New Voters: King County + Second Five Counties in WA 2012 Gen. Elec. |
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/11/inside-obama-campaign-tech-operation
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