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Monday, November 26, 2012

The Aftermath (Part VII): How Many Voted in WA Counties?

Left: Total Votes: Top Five Counties in WA 2012 General Election
Right: Total Votes: King County + Second Five Counties in WA 2012 General Election

Preface

I've documented the Powershell 3.0 code for this data. Real data analysts are most probably using other technology. But PS 3.0 will do for the points I want to make today.  In addition, a Ph.D in data mining is not required to use Powershell to analyze your local election or PDC data. Powershell 3.0 and .NET 4.5 come as updates to Windows 7 and they are standard with Windows 8. This post counts as pretty 'wonky'. There a lots of numbers and synthetic ratios in this post and (gasp!!) links to code, but I did my best to keep this post interesting. After all, I intend this post to be for those activists who value the vote and want to increase their community's electoral participation. Comment below or email me any errors. Click on the images to enlarge.


The Data Analysts are Magicians after all

In a networked world whose internal clocks are all manned by financial analysts, programmers, hackers, scientists, mathematicians and statisticians; the 'data analyst' is now the acknowledged Merlin of our time. In a series of recent articles, Mother Jones lays out how the Obama campaign tech staff overwhelmed the Romney/Ryan money machine with intelligence. In reality, I think most of America simply wasn't going to put another stupid white man in power.   However, there was more to this election than national sentiment.

CVAP is the Citizen Voting Age Population. This is an important Census measurement used for the apportionment of government funding and also used by voting analysts to understand population dynamics. In this case, I am using CVAP County based data to assess WA top ten counties as ranked by total ballots for election of 2012. It is important to note that the CVAP numbers are from 2010 ACS (American Community Survey) and the 11/21 voting totals are still not quite complete or certified. But this is typical of population and voter registration data. Both are always a moving targets with real-time numbers difficult to come by. 

The top ten WA counties constituted 82% of the 2012 WA vote: 2590715/3159570=0.8199
King County's vote alone constituted  nearly 31% of the total 2012 WA vote: 973088/3159570=0.3079

So how these ten counties vote is critical for WA election results. From left to right, we see the total vote, registered voters, the 'turnout' (e.g. total vote / registered voters), the census derived 'CVAP' (e.g. Citizen Voting Age Population), the CVAP_TV (e.g. total vote / CVAP), and the CVAP_RV (e.g. registered voters / CVAP).  Probably due to the influence of organizations like OFA, most of the top ten counties have reasonably high turnouts in 2012. Some counties (King, Whatcom, Benton) have over 70% of their CVAP returning votes. King County voting performance was exceptional. By these statistics, King County has over 90% of their voting age population registered. Among this top ten, King County has the highest CVAP_TV percentage, nearly 75%:

County       TotalVote   RegVtr  T/O_PCT  CVAP     CVAP_TV_%    CVAP_RV_%

King            973088   1170638      83.189 1299290      74.893      90.099
Pierce          349377    442985       78.86  554975      62.959      79.837
Snohomish       334354    415504      80.461  478440      69.832       86.81
Spokane         227007    282442      80.346  342060      66.398      82.555
Clark           193102    243155      79.453  284190      67.911       85.52
Thurston        125230    160302      78.186  180595      69.354      88.744
Kitsap          125052    152681      81.922  183875      68.048      83.008
Whatcom         104680    125485      83.427  144535      72.412      86.891
Benton           80428     97849      82.133  111425      72.104      87.826
Yakima           78397    106452      73.663  136075      57.655      78.274


If we look more closely at similar sized counties, we can see what a difference registration efforts make in county electoral influence. Pierce County for example, has 76,535 more citizens of voting age than Snohomish County. Yet Snohomish County turned in a total vote of only 15,023 less than Pierce. Yakima and Benton Counties are an extreme example of how voter registration efforts can magnify the influence of a county electorate. Yakima County has an (April 2012) population of 246K vs. 180K for Benton. The 2010 CVAP statistics show Yakima with 24,650 greater voting age population. Yet Benton (t/o_pct=82%; cvap_tv_pct=72%) managed to produce 2,031 more total ballots than Yakima County! Whatcom County, which is actually the ninth largest county in population, made the 'elite eight' of 2012 ; each of which counties exceeded over 100K total ballots.

Many small counties in WA really make an effort to get out the vote.  Here I list every county that has a CVAP_TV percentage over 70%. You have to hand it to the only archipelago county in WA state. Consisting of a reputed 172 islands that are connected only by boats and a WA ferry system, San Juan County has nearly registered every voting age person in their island paradise (12,019 out of 12,455). Their turnout of registered voters is tops in WA State (88.5%). Show me another county somewhere in the world with such a disparate, disconnected topography that induces so much of it's citizenry to vote. 

County       TotalVote   RegVtr  T/O_PCT  CVAP     CVAP_TV_%    CVAP_RV_%

San Juan         10640     12019      88.544   12455      85.473      96.459
Jefferson        20046     22756      88.029   24680      81.271      92.217
Wahkiakum         2337      2829      82.639    3105      75.218      91.111
King            973088   1170638      83.189 1299290      74.893      90.099
Lincoln           5963      7059      84.461    7990       74.67      88.383
Columbia          2275      2661      85.445    3120      72.967      85.215
Garfield          1292      1531      84.381    1775      72.762      86.206
Whatcom         104680    125485      83.427  144535      72.412      86.891
Benton           80428     97849      82.133  111425      72.104      87.826
Klickitat        10490     13093      80.114   14760       71.07      88.706
Stevens          22614     28362      79.754   32045      70.584      88.567
Island           42516     50389      84.344   60290      70.516      83.548


But as most of this article shows, Whatcom County also played way over its head this year. For a county such as ours to put up percentages like we did this year speaks to a sustained effort to increase voter participation.  So let us look at how much more voting age population is still out there waiting to be galvanized. CVAP_TOTP represents the number of potential voting age population untapped; either not registered or registered and not voting. 

County       TotalVote RegVoters CVAP_TOTP CVAP_REGP
------       --------- --------- --------- ---------
King            973088   1170638    326202    128652
Pierce          349377    442985    205598    111990
Snohomish       334354    415504    144086     62936
Spokane         227007    282442    115053     59618
Clark           193102    243155     91088     41035
Kitsap          125052    152681     58823     31194
Yakima           78397    106452     57678     29623
Thurston        125230    160302     55365     20293
Whatcom         104680    125485     39855     19050
Benton           80428     97849     30997     13576

The top five counties (King, Pierce, Snohomish, Spokane, Clark) have 882,027 citizens of voting age that did not participate in 2012.  404,231 were registered but did not vote in 2012.  Those 900K citizens should really be worth some get out the vote efforts. The second five counties have 242,718 untapped in 2012 of which 113,736 were registered but did not vote in 2012. This means there were 995,763 or nearly one million who did not participate in the 2012 election in these 10 counties, but in theory could have.  In reality, these numbers are tempered by any number of factors, but one million is still a number worth fighting for. If you live in WA (specifically one of these counties) and want to increase electoral participation in your community, please keep reading this blog. One thing I have discovered about political change: local efforts and knowledge trump almost anything else. Here are all the counties for the 2012 Election sorted by total votes:

County       TotalVote RegVoters Turnout_PCT    CVAP CVAP_TV_PCT CVAP_RV_PCT
------       --------- --------- -----------    ---- ----------- -----------
King            973088   1170638      83.189 1299290      74.893      90.099
Pierce          349377    442985       78.86  554975      62.959      79.837
Snohomish       334354    415504      80.461  478440      69.832       86.81
Spokane         227007    282442      80.346  342060      66.398      82.555
Clark           193102    243155      79.453  284190      67.911       85.52
Thurston        125230    160302      78.186  180595      69.354      88.744
Kitsap          125052    152681      81.922  183875      68.048      83.008
Whatcom         104680    125485      83.427  144535      72.412      86.891
Benton           80428     97849      82.133  111425      72.104      87.826
Yakima           78397    106452      73.663  136075      57.655      78.274
Skagit           56204     67769      82.934   80625      69.792      84.009
Cowlitz          45396     58555      77.552   73145      62.099      80.072
Island           42516     50389      84.344   60290      70.516      83.548
Clallam          38608     47157      81.825   56045      68.853      84.103
Lewis            34383     44287       77.62   54690      62.821      80.974
Chelan           32723     40293      81.239   48095      68.067        83.7
Grays Harbor     29083     38307      75.904   53625      54.226       71.45
Mason            28368     35268       80.42   45135       62.81      78.126
Grant            27949     36499      76.509   49280      56.716      74.092
Walla Walla      25380     31844      79.701   40460      62.788      78.748
Franklin         22985     29760      77.227   33570      68.479      88.619
Stevens          22614     28362      79.754   32045      70.584      88.567
Jefferson        20046     22756      88.029   24680      81.271      92.217
Kittitas         18357     22062      83.283   31165      58.977      70.748
Whitman          17323     21272      81.436   34430      50.334      61.737
Okanogan         17151     21344      80.337   28350      60.445      75.246
Douglas          15228     19140      79.558   22935      66.342      83.419
Pacific          10725     13431      79.899   16480      65.056       81.47
San Juan         10640     12019      88.544   12455      85.473      96.459
Klickitat        10490     13093      80.114   14760       71.07      88.706
Asotin           10055     13632      73.716   16485      60.916      82.662
Pend Oreille      6813      8264      82.479    9875      68.911      83.671
Lincoln           5963      7059      84.461    7990       74.67      88.383
Skamania          5569      6941      80.291    8250      67.503      84.133
Adams             4887      6457      75.652    8990      54.388      71.897
Ferry             3495      4475      78.179    5715      61.146      78.399
Wahkiakum         2337      2829      82.639    3105      75.218      91.111
Columbia          2275      2661      85.445    3120      72.967      85.215
Garfield          1292      1531      84.381    1775      72.762      86.206


Left: Potential New Voters: Top Five Counties in WA 2012 General Election
Right: Potential New Voters: King County + Second Five Counties in WA 2012 Gen. Elec.
Links
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/11/inside-obama-campaign-tech-operation

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