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| Screenshot of 2010 Zip Code map from ECY WA . 98229, a recent zipcode addition, is dubbed in black. |
This will be my last post with data from the 2012 Voter History Database. I will be analyzing the 2013 (almost through May) Voter Database soon. This analysis shows that Whatcom County's substantial recent increase in the voter registration is being driven by youth living in 98225, 98226 or 98229 zipcodes. Although many people have registered to vote in Whatcom County, youth 25 or under in Bellingham are clearly becoming the most significant voting block.
Conclusions:
No candidate who wants victory in any county wide or council office here can afford to ignore this voting block. Anyone who is part of the voting population born in 1988 or later has come of age in the eras of the "War Against Terrorism", the massive build up of our military industrial complex, and the near collapse of our capitalism. The challenges this age group faces include limited employment opportunities, perpetual foreign wars, sky-rocketing energy prices, global climate change and nearly obscene political gridlock; all of these forces occurring in a society that clearly values decimal points in offshore accounts more than a functioning democracy or economic justice or anything at all that might be reminiscent of a "New Deal" or a "Fair Deal". To be frank, most of the voting age population between 18 and 25 are probably wondering quite simply: "WTF?"
Put yourself in their position. What type of candidate are you going to vote for? Someone mouthing platitudes designed to appeal to the problems of boomers? Of course not. If you are under 25 in America, you feel the malevolence of the storm coming your way and you know that your generation is the most likely to be left out in cold after the rest of the world has plundered or squandered budgets, resources, and any opportunity left for lasting world peace. You might even reason that no one gives a rat's a-- about what happens to you and your friends. So if you have enough hope and chutzpah to actually vote for a local candidate, what do you want to hear from them? This is what I would I be looking for if I were 25 (or 51 with two young kids..):
Someone that gives a sh*t about the future. Someone that can actually understand the complex numbers that will make a planet with 8 Billion people run efficiently in 2020. Someone who is not just another conservative tool of fat cats or some wussy, co-dependent liberal. Someone who gives you fact checked information that you can't debunk in five minutes on your smart phone or someone that gives you sound data analysis that you can't poke holes through on your tablet while you eat noodle soup for dinner. Someone who sounds like they can make real change happen. Someone who seems to authentically care about your future. Someone who sounds fearless and smart enough to make history change course.
Those are your character points, candidates. If you want the 30K plus college students in Bellingham (and many of the rest of us) to give you a vote, that's who you need to be. Data analysis follows after the break.
The last three election years added 25K to the voter registration rolls:
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from originalregistrationdate), COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 GROUP BY extract(Year from originalregistrationdate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 5;
date_part | count
-----------+-------
2012 | 11750
2008 | 10579
2004 | 9533
2010 | 6819
2011 | 6689
(5 rows)
What zip codes are these new registrants coming from? Zip codes change all the time as counties grow thus complicating analysis. 98226 appears to be split in half sometime after 2010 giving us 98229. 98225, 98226, 98229, 98248, 98264, or 98230 provide the bulk of all registered voters.: 110K out of 125K. 98225,98226 and 98229 provides 67K of that vote:
WC2012=# SELECT ResidenceZipCode, COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode ORDER By Count DESC;
residencezipcode | count
------------------+-------
98225 | 27393
98226 | 26158
98229 | 20120
98248 | 13565
98264 | 12607
98230 | 10062
98247 | 4903
98244 | 2000
98240 | 1926
98266 | 1697
98295 | 1421
98284 | 1182
98281 | 945
98262 | 769
98276 | 724
98220 | 438
98283 | 36
If we ask what zip codes have registered the most since 2008, we find that 24872/39675 or 63% of those new registrants have come from 98225,98226 or 98229:
WC2012=# SELECT residencezipcode,COUNT(extract(Year from originalregistrationdate)) FROM voterdbfvl1 where extract(Year from OriginalRegistrationDate) >= 2008 GROUP BY residencezipcode ORDER BY COUNT DESC;
residencezipcode | count
------------------+-------
98225 | 10992
98226 | 7625
98229 | 6255
98248 | 3822
98230 | 3354
98264 | 3295
98247 | 1177
98266 | 586
98244 | 491
98240 | 459
98284 | 407
98295 | 383
98281 | 330
98276 | 231
98262 | 165
98220 | 79
98283 | 24
(17 rows)
If we ask how many new registrants are 25 years old or younger (in 2012), we find that 10,417 out of 15,683 of those young registrants are from 98225, 98226 or 98229:
WC2012=# SELECT residencezipcode,COUNT(extract(Year from originalregistrationdate)) FROM voterdbfvl1 where extract(Year from BirthDate) >= 1988 GROUP BY residencezipcode ORDER BY COUNT DESC;
residencezipcode | count
------------------+-------
98225 | 5605
98226 | 2678
98229 | 2134
98264 | 1429
98248 | 1403
98230 | 820
98247 | 602
98240 | 184
98266 | 177
98244 | 176
98295 | 169
98276 | 97
98284 | 87
98281 | 50
98262 | 38
98220 | 33
98283 | 1
(17 rows)
Again, the top zip 6 zip codes for Whatcom County registrants in 2012 were:
WC2012=# SELECT ResidenceZipCode, COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 6;
residencezipcode | count
------------------+-------
98225 | 27393
98226 | 26158
98229 | 20120
98248 | 13565
98264 | 12607
98230 | 10062
(6 rows)
If we look through the top ten age groups registered in those zip code areas, we see that 98225 is clearly producing the age range with the youngest residents:
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where ResidenceZipCode = 98225 GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 10;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1993 | 98225 | 994
1991 | 98225 | 922
1992 | 98225 | 861
1994 | 98225 | 801
1990 | 98225 | 788
1989 | 98225 | 682
1984 | 98225 | 579
1988 | 98225 | 557
1986 | 98225 | 550
1985 | 98225 | 547
(10 rows)
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where ResidenceZipCode = 98226 GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extct(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 10;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1951 | 98226 | 541
1953 | 98226 | 518
1947 | 98226 | 508
1954 | 98226 | 499
1984 | 98226 | 498
1956 | 98226 | 498
1959 | 98226 | 495
1952 | 98226 | 491
1955 | 98226 | 486
1948 | 98226 | 486
(10 rows)
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where ResidenceZipCode = 98229 GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 10;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1953 | 98229 | 446
1952 | 98229 | 430
1948 | 98229 | 424
1951 | 98229 | 417
1949 | 98229 | 414
1954 | 98229 | 407
1957 | 98229 | 401
1950 | 98229 | 384
1947 | 98229 | 377
1946 | 98229 | 376
(10 rows)
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where ResidenceZipCode = 98248 GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 10;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1957 | 98248 | 305
1959 | 98248 | 304
1961 | 98248 | 285
1952 | 98248 | 276
1950 | 98248 | 275
1958 | 98248 | 270
1954 | 98248 | 270
1960 | 98248 | 267
1956 | 98248 | 266
1962 | 98248 | 264
(10 rows)
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where ResidenceZipCode = 98264 GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 10;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1956 | 98264 | 255
1989 | 98264 | 245
1954 | 98264 | 235
1960 | 98264 | 234
1961 | 98264 | 232
1957 | 98264 | 232
1991 | 98264 | 229
1955 | 98264 | 226
1990 | 98264 | 226
1980 | 98264 | 224
(10 rows)
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where ResidenceZipCode = 98230 GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 10;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1947 | 98230 | 254
1946 | 98230 | 248
1948 | 98230 | 227
1952 | 98230 | 223
1956 | 98230 | 218
1954 | 98230 | 217
1943 | 98230 | 216
1951 | 98230 | 216
1957 | 98230 | 211
1945 | 98230 | 207
(10 rows)
Clearly, the 25 and under registrants are coming from 98225, 98226 or 98229:
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where extract(Year from BirthDate) >= '1988' GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 25;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1993 | 98225 | 994
1991 | 98225 | 922
1992 | 98225 | 861
1994 | 98225 | 801
1990 | 98225 | 788
1989 | 98225 | 682
1988 | 98225 | 557
1988 | 98226 | 458
1990 | 98226 | 437
1991 | 98226 | 435
1989 | 98226 | 420
1992 | 98226 | 376
1989 | 98229 | 366
1988 | 98229 | 359
1990 | 98229 | 353
1993 | 98226 | 333
1991 | 98229 | 330
1992 | 98229 | 327
1989 | 98264 | 245
1989 | 98248 | 235
1993 | 98229 | 230
1991 | 98264 | 229
1990 | 98248 | 226
1990 | 98264 | 226
1991 | 98248 | 221
(25 rows)
Residents born between 1990 - 1994 are clearly coming mostly from 98225, 98226 or 98229:
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where extract(Year from BirthDate) = '1994' GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 25;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1994 | 98225 | 801
1994 | 98226 | 219
1994 | 98229 | 169
1994 | 98264 | 140
1994 | 98248 | 123
1994 | 98230 | 79
1994 | 98247 | 68
1994 | 98240 | 20
1994 | 98244 | 18
1994 | 98295 | 15
1994 | 98266 | 12
1994 | 98276 | 8
1994 | 98284 | 6
1994 | 98281 | 3
1994 | 98262 | 2
(15 rows)
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where extract(Year from BirthDate) = '1993' GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 25;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1993 | 98225 | 994
1993 | 98226 | 333
1993 | 98229 | 230
1993 | 98264 | 196
1993 | 98248 | 177
1993 | 98230 | 100
1993 | 98247 | 73
1993 | 98240 | 30
1993 | 98266 | 28
1993 | 98295 | 23
1993 | 98244 | 19
1993 | 98284 | 16
1993 | 98276 | 13
1993 | 98281 | 5
1993 | 98262 | 4
1993 | 98220 | 2
(16 rows)
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where extract(Year from BirthDate) = '1992' GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 25;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1992 | 98225 | 861
1992 | 98226 | 376
1992 | 98229 | 327
1992 | 98248 | 215
1992 | 98264 | 198
1992 | 98230 | 126
1992 | 98247 | 93
1992 | 98240 | 29
1992 | 98266 | 23
1992 | 98244 | 22
1992 | 98295 | 19
1992 | 98276 | 16
1992 | 98284 | 15
1992 | 98281 | 10
1992 | 98220 | 6
1992 | 98262 | 2
(16 rows)
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where extract(Year from BirthDate) = '1991' GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 25;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1991 | 98225 | 922
1991 | 98226 | 435
1991 | 98229 | 330
1991 | 98264 | 229
1991 | 98248 | 221
1991 | 98230 | 127
1991 | 98247 | 89
1991 | 98240 | 32
1991 | 98266 | 31
1991 | 98295 | 21
1991 | 98244 | 19
1991 | 98276 | 14
1991 | 98284 | 13
1991 | 98262 | 8
1991 | 98281 | 5
1991 | 98220 | 4
(16 rows)
WC2012=# SELECT extract(Year from BirthDate),ResidenceZipCode,COUNT(ResidenceZipCode) FROM voterdbfvl1 where extract(Year from BirthDate) = '1990' GROUP BY ResidenceZipCode,extract(Year from BirthDate) ORDER BY COUNT DESC LIMIT 25;
date_part | residencezipcode | count
-----------+------------------+-------
1990 | 98225 | 788
1990 | 98226 | 437
1990 | 98229 | 353
1990 | 98264 | 226
1990 | 98248 | 226
1990 | 98230 | 142
1990 | 98247 | 104
1990 | 98244 | 33
1990 | 98266 | 33
1990 | 98295 | 28
1990 | 98240 | 25
1990 | 98276 | 20
1990 | 98281 | 12
1990 | 98262 | 10
1990 | 98284 | 9
1990 | 98220 | 6
(16 rows)
