The 'swing vote' in WA 42 LD

GIS : City of Bellingham Precincts (2012)  and  Whatcom County Precincts (2011)

The columns in the long table below the break represent active voters as of 09/10/2014 for the 119 precincts in WA LD 42nd. They represent the queries for (successful) BallotCounted = 1 for  the 2014 primary, ge2013, ge2013  and (not successful) BallotCounted = 0 as nprimary, nge2013, nge2012. The last three columns are synthetic:

• pdiff (ge2013 - primary) # Voted in GE2013 but not the primary
• gediff (ge2013 - ge2012) # Voted in GE2013 but not GE2012
• ngediff (nge2013 - nge2012) # Not Voted in GE2013 vs Not Voted GE2012

This data does not include active voters who did not have any ballot status for any of these three elections. (BallotCounted = '' or na). That data is as below, most importantly showing what appears to be 1840 newly active voters since the primary:

(BallotCounted = '' for all Whatcom County)

 naprimary | na2013 | na2012

-----------+--------+--------

      1840 |   6903 |  14172

(BallotCounted = '' for the 42nd LD)
naprimary | na2013 | na2012
----------+--------+--------
     1189 |   4538 |   8335

The  data below the break in the column gediff essentially represents the long term resident swing vote for WA LD 42. In 2012, Cantwell, Obama, and Inslee fared well or won in the 42nd. The turnout was substantially higher for every precinct in the 42 as the negative data (ge2013 - ge2012) indicates. In order for the Democrats to win in WA LD 42nd, they need the swing vote that emerges when OFA and Barack Obama are in town. This data isn't virtual or projected. Each of the 340 active voters in precinct 201 who voted in 2012 but not in 2013 have registration numbers, names and addresses. Sure, some of them might be Republican; but most were not in 2012. If the Democrats want victory in the WA LD 42nd, they are going to have to match their 2012 victory numbers. They are going to have to find a way to get that swing vote to the polls. There are plenty of Democratic votes in the 42nd; they just need reasons to mail in their ballot and a process that makes sure their ballots are counted. Code is here.

precinctid	primary	ge2013	ge2012	nprimary	nge2013	nge2012	pdiff	gediff	ngediff
201	441	559	899	790	569	147	118	-340	422
133	209	259	557	765	688	346	50	-298	342
229	205	402	671	804	538	191	197	-269	347
101	290	421	679	634	484	182	131	-258	302
137	211	286	544	736	629	335	75	-258	294
151	345	509	764	580	397	120	164	-255	277
108	285	505	759	761	494	163	220	-254	331
125	267	379	631	535	409	137	112	-252	272
506	238	395	646	611	417	129	157	-251	288
107	359	453	694	554	409	119	94	-241	290
127	379	561	802	597	387	122	182	-241	265
301	330	466	702	628	454	179	136	-236	275
136	234	369	602	596	413	147	135	-233	266
146	395	546	779	617	440	166	151	-233	274
302	348	494	726	674	472	183	146	-232	289
140	419	643	874	684	423	162	224	-231	261
208	405	647	876	769	456	146	242	-229	310
135	245	369	596	562	395	127	124	-227	268
115	302	447	673	532	368	125	145	-226	243
502	191	332	557	556	390	132	141	-225	258
503	308	441	666	509	355	101	133	-225	254
126	365	531	749	618	408	151	166	-218	257
166	328	520	737	608	397	137	192	-217	260
211	268	381	594	596	423	133	113	-213	290
131	348	521	734	560	362	128	173	-213	234
505	324	462	672	657	447	169	138	-210	278
148	281	437	645	657	450	192	156	-208	258
609	387	532	740	507	334	88	145	-208	246
106	217	355	561	548	372	126	138	-206	246
203	341	432	637	522	383	125	91	-205	258
508	295	432	635	602	429	169	137	-203	260
134	379	606	809	633	375	140	227	-203	235
150	340	502	703	542	351	134	162	-201	217
225	249	405	606	639	405	116	156	-201	289
141	334	516	713	561	354	132	182	-197	222
602	402	516	712	428	296	73	114	-196	223
801	216	312	506	470	349	125	96	-194	224
206	256	466	658	730	446	195	210	-192	251
220	214	311	503	539	394	134	97	-192	260
701	246	385	576	494	341	125	139	-191	216
233	257	456	646	565	328	101	199	-190	227
213	385	599	789	588	349	119	214	-190	230
603	262	340	530	404	300	83	78	-190	217
606	328	450	639	469	315	104	122	-189	211
604	262	390	578	453	296	81	128	-188	215
152	255	402	589	508	333	124	147	-187	209
219	239	373	560	528	357	132	134	-187	225
218	215	299	484	491	366	115	84	-185	251
601	505	657	842	507	325	87	152	-185	238
509	198	268	452	414	323	109	70	-184	214
145	414	559	743	470	295	88	145	-184	207
221	269	463	647	495	283	69	194	-184	214
111	253	409	591	542	364	141	156	-182	223
227	268	451	632	582	362	109	183	-181	253
153	301	446	626	527	365	151	145	-180	214
402	251	308	485	391	309	100	57	-177	209
120	249	399	574	476	307	99	150	-175	208
110	235	349	523	445	304	103	114	-174	201
501	232	380	554	489	306	92	148	-174	214
401	185	245	418	371	286	88	60	-173	198
118	330	510	682	561	343	131	180	-172	212
610	435	571	740	434	270	70	136	-169	200
216	310	473	641	493	288	83	163	-168	205
147	289	452	615	543	358	157	163	-163	201
608	297	413	573	414	274	78	116	-160	196
209	305	484	642	463	258	71	179	-158	187
129	315	482	637	478	297	113	167	-155	184
507	246	353	507	442	312	116	107	-154	196
113	264	397	550	415	259	101	133	-153	158
132	239	353	502	429	299	122	114	-149	177
222	370	677	823	591	242	56	307	-146	186
202	251	324	469	332	227	66	73	-145	161
142	206	311	455	557	397	207	105	-144	190
102	259	341	484	372	260	95	82	-143	165
143	163	273	413	378	241	73	110	-140	168
234	346	539	678	453	239	70	193	-139	169
212	143	182	320	328	243	77	39	-138	166
114	148	216	352	317	237	84	68	-136	153
215	303	505	636	462	223	66	202	-131	157
155	203	326	456	339	201	58	123	-130	143
611	249	353	481	334	210	61	104	-128	149
607	307	436	562	370	221	74	129	-126	147
121	190	300	426	340	218	70	110	-126	148
149	257	348	471	335	231	90	91	-123	141
204	120	198	320	431	305	117	78	-122	188
144	422	595	716	419	233	90	173	-121	143
210	338	570	690	488	218	66	232	-120	152
123	185	280	398	326	216	84	95	-118	132
157	112	207	325	319	208	62	95	-118	146
205	204	323	437	366	221	85	119	-114	136
303	402	489	602	328	209	55	87	-113	154
122	199	288	400	330	230	97	89	-112	133
130	185	275	384	325	214	79	90	-109	135
112	146	201	309	242	174	54	55	-108	120
117	258	363	471	298	175	52	105	-108	123
217	233	327	433	318	202	83	94	-106	119
138	350	517	623	381	192	61	167	-106	131
504	153	217	323	268	188	61	64	-106	127
103	340	446	551	341	202	68	106	-105	134
223	177	309	409	349	190	54	132	-100	136
119	168	241	339	244	159	45	73	-98	114
605	210	290	387	248	158	46	80	-97	112
116	208	295	392	284	187	74	87	-97	113
154	213	320	417	311	190	79	107	-97	111
214	239	430	525	390	173	52	191	-95	121
207	167	323	417	338	171	59	156	-94	112
165	149	239	330	267	164	56	90	-91	108
158	133	219	304	247	150	55	86	-85	95
124	213	286	369	262	172	73	73	-83	99
304	107	149	231	212	155	55	42	-82	100
104	204	270	351	213	131	32	66	-81	99
105	167	225	300	234	154	56	58	-75	98
139	159	222	295	198	129	44	63	-73	85
224	102	157	213	205	120	33	55	-56	87
156	147	224	278	208	120	38	77	-54	82
167	48	88	119	87	46	11	40	-31	35
267	36	51	76	69	45	17	15	-25	28
268	13	23	33	38	26	14	10	-10	12
183	10	15	20	20	8	1	5	-5	7