Thursday, October 30, 2014

Ballotcounted dispositions (null, 0, 1) mapped per precinct for GE 2012 and GE2013 elections.

Here are three 'BallotCounted_' dispositions (null, 0, 1) mapped each per precinct for the last two general elections in WA LD42nd and the difference for each disposition between the two. SQL code here.  

BallotCounted_ = '' 
This is null; In general the voter was not or is not registered for the election counted. In an active voter list, this also refers to successfully challenged votes. Newly active voters for 2014 will also be null until they vote.
BallotCounted =  '0' 
Mail Ballot Issued but not returned. Vote not successfully cast.
BallotCounted = '1'
Mail Ballot Issued and Returne. Vote successfully cast. 

For some reason, one of the smaller precincts is missing. Data is from 10/29/2014 voterdb for Whatcom County.To look at this data you may want to paste it into a spreadsheet or in notepad use one of the Courier fonts to maintain appropriate spacing.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Preceding our votes on I594, we have a spree-killing at a WA School

PDC map of i594 financing showing $3.2M in contributions from New York.
"And... The thing is, is I don't always just go out an shoot something. It's not my favorite part about hunting. My favorite part about it is about just being in the woods. Just me my dad an my brother. An even if I'm sitting in the passenger seat sleeping it doesn't matter. I like to be in the woods an that's it...." from the Facebook page of Jaylen Fryburg (now removed)
I have a hard time buying all the mass shooting stories we are fed in the news: The last group of spree killing stories have all been about troubled  young men and when you read the press reports later everyone from novice psychologists to journalists have a field day trying to perform amateur criminal psychoanalysis and discover what happened. Internet and Facebook commentary spread like wildfire.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

The "Obama Diff": Can 2014 turnout match 2012 turnout?

Active Voters 10/20/2014 : Light Red extensions are the per precinct difference between turnout of 2012 GE vs. 2013 GE.
The chart above gives us the "Obama Diff" or the difference between those voters active now (10/20/2014) who voted in the 2012 GE but not the 2013 GE in the 42nd LD. These 19K voters are what I am calling the Whatcom County "swing vote" in the 42nd LD . The 42nd LD races may well come down to these 19K voters and it may be as simple as this:

  • If you support Democrats, you want these 19K to vote
  • If you support Republicans, you want to suppress these 19K

It's almost certain that most of the difference between the red and blue in the chart above will vote Democrat.  However, those 42nd LD voters elected Cantwell and Obama in 2012 , but not McClendon and Krough. So how will they turn out for Monjure, Sidhu, Fleetwood in 2014?

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

You should have your mail-in ballot : Precincts and their counts: 09/05/2014 - 10/20/2014

If you updated your address, if you registered to vote, then you should have your mail-in ballot by now!.  Call or visit the Whatcom County Election office if you should but do not. Active voters per precinct in the 119 42nd LD precincts between  09/05/2014 - 10/20/2014:

Fwd: Your guide to the Charter Review Commission

Democrat guide to Charter Review Candidates is below the break. -RMF
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Whatcom Democrats <>
Date: Tue, Oct 21, 2014 at 2:43 PM
Subject: Your guide to the Charter Review Commission
To: Ryan <>

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Fwd: Your 2014 Progressive Voters Guide

Reader: I generally support FUSE endorsements and think they do the progressive community an important service. I recommend you become a member and join their mailing list. I may personally vote against their  591 and 594 recommendations; I am researching those ballot measure in an ongoing post. FUSE has a humorous rebuttal to pro I591 and con 594 voters like myself; unfortunately it is not a technical or legal piece.

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Aaron Ostrom, Fuse Votes" <>
Date: Oct 18, 2014 11:54 AM
Subject: Your 2014 Progressive Voters Guide
To: "Ryan M Ferris" <>

Dear Friend,

The 2014 general election is here! Your ballot is filled with candidates and measures that will make a huge impact on equality, economic security, and the future of Washington. Voting in the November 4 election is an important first step toward retaking the state Senate and supporting progressives in many local races that will impact you, your neighbors, and your children.

To spread the word about all the other races on your ballot, we worked with Washington's leading progressive organizations to produce the 2014 Progressive Voters Guide to the general election — your ticket to highly-informed voting based on progressive values.

The deadline for mailing in your ballot is November 4, but you should join your neighbors and mail it in today! Please forward this guide to your friends, family, and co-workers — they can find their own locally customized version at

Thanks for all that you do (especially voting),

Aaron and the entire team at Fuse

Share via Facebook Share Via Twitter

Fwd: Endorsements for your ballot

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Greg Haffner, WA Democrats" <>
Date: Oct 16, 2014 10:20 AM
Subject: Endorsements for your ballot
To: "Ryan Ferris" <>

You're one of the thousands who have committed to vote this year.
Thank you so much!
This is the time where it really counts. 
Ballots have already gone out in some counties, and all ballots will be out by Friday. We're really relying on you, our strongest supporters, to turn out for Democrats.
You wouldn't have committed to vote if you weren't someone who cares about making the right choices in the election. We want to help.
In a midterm election like this, we will win or lose based on who shows up. Here are some steps you can take to make informed choices when you fill out your ballot:
  1. Do some prep work. Take a look at your voters guide. Go to our Candidates page and visit the websites of the Democrats running in the election.
  2. Find endorsements for your ballot. Local Democratic organizations have made endorsements in races up and down the ballot. You can feel confident that endorsed candidates represent Democratic values. Just go to the Endorsement Finder and enter your name and zip code to find a set of recommendations created just for you.
  3. Deposit your ballot into a mailbox or dropbox. Ballots must be postmarked or in a dropbox by November 4th. 
  4. Please, vote early. If you vote early, then your vote gets counted early. You can track the status of your ballot on MyVote. Campaigns can then focus on reminding people to vote who really need to be reminded, not great Democrats like you! 
Thank you for voting!

Contributions are not tax deductible for federal income tax purposes.
Paid for by Washington State Democratic Central Committee
615 Second Ave., Seattle, WA 98104 - (206) 583-0664 -
Not authorized by any federal candidate or candidate's committee
Washington State Democratic Party
615 2nd Ave.
Seattle WA 98104 United States

Thursday, October 16, 2014

I594: Useful Gun Control or Capitalist Plot?

Under Construction 8:41 AM 10/17/2014 -RMF
This post is now out of date. I594 passed amidst dramatic expenditures. It is now the law.
Donations for and against I594  as of 10/16/14 in top graphic bar. Currently I594 has consumed an astonishing $10M of the $81M total contributions for WA election for 2014 to date. . $2.3M of the $9.5M donations for I594 come from New York State. Screenshot graphic from WA PDC. 
Below is the text of the letter I have sent WA PDC compliance officers. I have not received an answer as of yet:
HI PDC Compliance:
The 'WA Alliance for Gun Responsibility' has received a donation of $1M from New York State from EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY ACTION FUNDPresumably, if this were a WA PAC or non-profit or 527, this organization would have to list the donors that made up that $1M contribution. But in this case, an out of state organization has injected $1M into a WA initiative race from some unknown number of donors, none of which the people of WA can possibly know.  How does this conform with WA public disclosure law?
Below the break is the R code snapshot look at the pro I594 contributions to date. Ninety percent of the $8,383,561 pro I594 contributions to date are under $500. This might mean a little more if the sums of the  top ten donation amounts (range $500 : $1M) weren't ~$7M of the $8.3M of contributions.  The top ten donation amounts themselves comes from only 29 unique contributors out of a total of 7,256 unique contributors. The sums of the top ten Contributor names are ~ $6.1M of the $8.3M donations to date. Those $6.1M contributions come only from Washington and New York. Politics is a sport for the rich these days. Looking at the top ten Contributor names on the list below confirms this for I594.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

The Human Services Forum

The Human Services Forum tomorrow night is your best chance to understand candidate view points on social services. You can preview the candidate answers to some of the forum advance human services questions here. Reputedly, the debate will broadcast live on BTV 10.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Fwd: Not again...

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Whatcom Democrats" <>
Date: Oct 14, 2014 4:08 PM
Subject: Not again...
To: "Ryan" <>

We shouldn't be shocked, but we are.
Once again, the Republicans are turning to huge corporations to finance their votes.  A large oil company is pumping $50,000 into the local Republican party1.  Coal terminal companies are spending $10,000 to buy our local charter review commission election2.

But that's not what shocks us.

With Republican legislators busy dining with lobbyists and pandering to global warming deniers, we're surprised anyone still supports their stubborn agenda of non-action.  After all, these are the same people who consistently show they care more about maintaining political gridlock and posturing than helping our local families.

Your $5 donation to the Whatcom Democrats will help us work to dump Republicans who refuse to work for the good of our county and fuel our progressive candidates: Seth Fleetwood, Satpal Sidhu, and Joy Monjure.

We've fought the Republicans before and won.  But with our opponents leaning on big business for votes, we need you to help restore balance and get the economy moving.  With your support, we win.

Click here to help send Democrats to Olympia. 
  1. Public disclosure records for Whatcom Republicans
  2. "Save Whatcom" 2014 Donor List
Copyright © 2014 Whatcom Democrats, All rights reserved.
You are receiving the email because you subscribed to our weekly announcements.

Our mailing address is:
Whatcom Democrats
P.O. Box 3095
Bellingham, WA 98227-3095

Add us to your address book

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Fwd: Get the Progressive Voters Guide early

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Aaron Ostrom, Fuse Votes <>
Date: Sat, Oct 11, 2014 at 9:01 AM
Subject: Get the Progressive Voters Guide early
To: Ryan M Ferris <>

Will you commit to sharing the Progressive Voters Guide with at least 5 people? We'll send you a special version of the guide first that makes sharing easy.

Sign Up!
Dear Friend,

"How should I vote in this Senate race?" "Which initiative on background checks is the good one?" "Who should I vote for in this judicial election?"

You may already know the answers (you are a Fuse member, after all), but odds are that many of your friends and family are not as well informed.

From ballot measures to judges and state Senate races, we're expecting dozens of razor–close races this November. The difference between winning and losing could come down to making sure less–engaged progressives not only vote, but vote in every race on the ballot.

Friday, October 10, 2014

The Campaign Finance War: Part IV

Quantile chart of Republican (red) vs Democrat (blue) Donation Amounts. Donations above $200 are largely the domain of the Republicans in this election.

The Campaign Financing War in WA 42 LD

Most of us who have thought about politics have known for some time now that at some very deep and cloaked level, the differences between the Republicans and Democrats don't pencil out as distinct in practice. No doubt the platforms of the two parties appear divergent at first glance, but in many strategically important areas, the respective party objectives end up serving the same economic masters in spite of well meaning (or perhaps well designed) campaign rhetoric.   

This is why an analysis of donor politics in Whatcom County seems absurd to me in some ways. Democrats and Republicans in Whatcom County have almost cartoonish differences in economic benefactors. The local capitalist class aligns with 'ALEC' type big business to support the Republicans and a broad group of small donation citizens of mostly liberal bent teams with high end donation environmentalists to support the Democrats. The actual contributions are obscenely representative of:

/*start conservative array here*/
 ARRAY['big corporate', 'big energy', 'Chamber of Commerce members']   
 /*start liberal array here*/
 ARRAY['Joe and Josephine Liberal', 'environmental PACs', 'social services supporters'].

In reality, no matter whether Ericksen (Republican) or Fleetwood (Democrat) becomes the next 42nd LD Senator, this is our probable Whatcom County event horizon:
  • Coal and Oil trains will  keep running day and night through Whatcom County
  • Cherry Point will become more industrialized and polluting 
  • Whatcom County's poverty rate will remain high and our professional classes[1] low in number 
  • The "Canadian dream catcher net" will still be built out by  Lummi, Costco, hotel chains, POB (airport) between Slater and Bakerview and the Mall.
  • A fracking frontier may well open up in the North County
  • And we will probably still be waiting to see if the Port finds the money to develop Bellingham's waterfront!
In this event horizon, your sons and daughters will be able to find jobs in store retail, shoveling coal, dealing black jack, and cleaning rooms. If they aspire for the professional classes (outside medical) or a career in technology, that future will have to be found elsewhere in big cities like Seattle, San Francisco, Boston or Vancouver (BC). Wouldn't it be ironic if Seattle Vancouver (BC) built a clean high tech economy but kept the Reno/Vegas trips, casino gambling, milk and gas purchases south of their border?

The big guns will be firing photon torpedoes of campaign dollars in the coming weeks. You might just want to park your space cruiser in the Romulian neutral zone until all the mailers have been delivered and the final votes are cast. Despite my cynicism, I plea with you to please remember to vote. Even if it changes little, please show the world that you vote.  Lots of data and graphs on PDC contributions below the break. Code is here. Click to enlarge charts.

Notes:[1] We do have quite a few medical and educational professionals in Whatcom County

A fiery math teacher runs for Senate in Montana

Meet Amanda Curtis; Millenial Democratic Senate Candidate for the 99% from Montana.

Imagine That!!

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

The online registration and update period for existing voters has ended ....

The online registration and update period for existing voters has ended. New WA State voters may continue to register in person (at the Whatcom County Courthouse) until October 27th. The columns below represent the delta (Orig Election Total - Active Vote Total) by week last month in the Active voter rolls for those who voted in the August Primary and the November 2013 GE. Your ballots will be mailed in Whatcom County starting October 15th.

 42,736 08/19/2014 < Total Votes in August Primary
 42,671 09/05  65
 42,658 09/10  78
 42,568 09/19  168
 42,633 09/23  103
 42,629 10/06  107

 69,709 11/25/2013 < Total Votes in November 2013 General
 68,602 09/05 1107
 68,579 09/14 1130
 67,620 09/19 2089
 68,501 09/23 1208
 68,368 10/02 1341

SQL below the break

Monday, October 6, 2014



Filtering Lost Voters

count | ballotcounted_1 | ballotcounted_2
  634 | 0               | 1
  506 | 0               | 0
  333 | 1               | 1
  211 | 0               |
  153 |                 |
   51 | 1               |
   22 | 1               | 0
    8 |                 | 1
    7 |                 | 0

We can filter 'lost' voters like this:

~14K inactive in Whatcom County
~8K inactive in 42nd LD
~2K marked inactive since Certification of Primary e.g '08/20/2014'

That filter (chart above) gives us these 'recently lost' but likely voters listed by priority:
  • 333 of that remaining ~2K who voted in both of the last General Elections.
  • 73 of that remaining ~2K who voted only in the last General Election.
  • 642 of that remaining ~2K who voted only in the General Election before last.
Data from 10/2/2014 voter database. SQL is here.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Fwd: Help take down the "Dirty Dozen" today

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "People for Seth Fleetwood" <>
Date: Oct 3, 2014 1:56 PM
Subject: Help take down the "Dirty Dozen" today
To: "Ryan Ferris" <>

Today, the League of Conservation Voters named Doug Ericksen part of the "Dirty Dozen" for being one of worst elected officials in the country for environmental legislation.

It's time we had responsible leadership in the 42nd. This race is important because it will shift the tide in the Washington State Senate and help shape environmental policy nationwide.

Fwd: No time to sleep

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Alex Brott, Fuse Votes" <>
Date: Oct 3, 2014 2:43 PM
Subject: No time to sleep
To: "Ryan M Ferris" <>

We're kicking off our statewide phonebanks to educate voters about progressive Matt Isenhower and the change he'll bring to the state Senate. We only have one month to go, and it's going to take all of us working together to win. Will you sign up to make calls from home for Matt Isenhower?

Sign Up!
Dear Friend,

This is it. Ballots are mailed out two weeks from today and we can't waste a minute.

Republican Budget Chair Andy Hill is facing a strong challenge from progressive Matt Isenhower in one of the closest races in the state. As their budget writer, Hill refused to close a single one of the 650 tax loopholes on the books – including the infamous Big Oil tax loophole. Now oil companies and other greedy corporations are returning the favor and spending tens of thousands of dollars backing Hill.

42nd Precincts who have lost Registrants! Active and Inactive Voters 42nd LD

Active and Inactive for voters for Whatcom County 42nd LD  at weekly intervals for the last month. Plus 42nd Precincts who have lost registrants between the the 2013 GE and today.These precincts listed below have lost more than 50 registrants or more over the last 11 months. 42nd District total active voters are essentially unchanged over the last 11 months to date. Monday, October 6th is the last date to update your voter registration on line.