 |
| Quantile chart of Republican (red) vs Democrat (blue) Donation Amounts. Donations above $200 are largely the domain of the Republicans in this election. |
The Campaign Financing War in WA 42 LD
Most of us who have thought about politics have known for some time now that at some very deep and cloaked level, the differences between the Republicans and Democrats don't pencil out as distinct in practice. No doubt the platforms of the two parties appear divergent at first glance, but in many strategically important areas, the respective party objectives end up serving the same economic masters in spite of well meaning (or perhaps well designed) campaign rhetoric.
This is why an analysis of donor politics in Whatcom County seems absurd to me in some ways. Democrats and Republicans in Whatcom County have almost cartoonish differences in economic benefactors. The local capitalist class aligns with 'ALEC' type big business to support the Republicans and a broad group of small donation citizens of mostly liberal bent teams with high end donation environmentalists to support the Democrats. The actual contributions are obscenely representative of:
/*start conservative array here*/
ARRAY['big corporate', 'big energy', 'Chamber of Commerce members']
vs.
/*start liberal array here*/
ARRAY['Joe and Josephine Liberal', 'environmental PACs', 'social services supporters'].
In reality, no matter whether Ericksen (Republican) or Fleetwood (Democrat) becomes the next 42nd LD Senator, this is our probable Whatcom County event horizon:
- Coal and Oil trains will keep running day and night through Whatcom County
- Cherry Point will become more industrialized and polluting
- Whatcom County's poverty rate will remain high and our professional classes[1] low in number
- The "Canadian dream catcher net" will still be built out by Lummi, Costco, hotel chains, POB (airport) between Slater and Bakerview and the Mall.
- A fracking frontier may well open up in the North County
- And we will probably still be waiting to see if the Port finds the money to develop Bellingham's waterfront!
In this event horizon, your sons and daughters will be able to find jobs in store retail, shoveling coal, dealing black jack, and cleaning rooms. If they aspire for the professional classes (outside medical) or a career in technology, that future will have to be found elsewhere in big cities like Seattle, San Francisco, Boston or Vancouver (BC). Wouldn't it be ironic if Seattle Vancouver (BC) built a clean high tech economy but kept the Reno/Vegas trips, casino gambling, milk and gas purchases south of their border?
The big guns will be firing photon torpedoes of campaign dollars in the coming weeks. You might just want to park your space cruiser in the Romulian neutral zone until all the mailers have been delivered and the final votes are cast. Despite my cynicism, I plea with you to please remember to vote. Even if it changes little, please show the world that you vote. Lots of data and graphs on PDC contributions below the break. Code is here. Click to enlarge charts.
Notes:[1] We do have quite a few medical and educational professionals in Whatcom County
Below is a look at some tables for WA 42nd legislative data as of October 9, 2014. My R code aggregates the data for all six candidates. An important note on the PDC data: I haven't corrected for data entry mistakes/anomalies. For example some of the city totals below aren't quite correct because they don't include donations to cities in the database with these spellings:- BELLLINGHAM (three "L" s)
- OLYMPIIA (two "I" s)
Some of the state totals aren't correct because someone entered "WV" (West Virginia) where they meant "WA" (Washington). Or the state name was simply left blank. Other errors may be causing my numbers to be inaccurate; but I won't be error checking the 3806 separate contributions to the 42 LD tonight.
About $748K has been contributed to the three candidates for each party from ~2600 unique contributors. The Republicans have raised about $73K more than the Democrats from twice the amount of states:
PA SUM CONTRIB CONTRIB.UNIQ CITY.UNIQ STATE.UNIQ ZIP.UNIQ
1 R 410472.6 1548 963 143 31 211
2 D 337753.7 2258 1673 152 14 222
Ericksen and Fleetwood campaigns have raised about $478K of that $748K (64%) of all of the monies contributed to date (10/9/2014). Fleetwood's campaign has both double the contributions and unique contributors. Ericksen has seen contributions from a much wider range of states outside of WA. Satpal and Van Werven have raised $183K for their race. If Joy Monjure triumphs in this race, she would immediately becomes the most cost-effective politician to obtain office in Whatcom County. Or at least she might, if we weren't graced with the integrity and thriftiness of long time County council member Barbara Brenner.
1 DJE 251689.12 710 517 112 29 167
2 SMF 226065.74 1602 1301 123 13 184
3 SS 94233.00 450 394 53 5 70
4 LVW 88950.01 545 436 50 7 64
5 VKB 69833.45 293 231 47 12 64
6 JM 17455.00 206 173 21 5 24
Most of the LD 42nd contributions come from WA state. However, CA,TX ,VA and OR have tossed $45K our way. All told, 31 states have contributed to the WA LD 42nd to date. Global economy, national concerns. No doubt if the US allowed out of country donations, Whatcom County politicians would be receiving money from abroad.
State SUM CONTRIB CONTRIB.UNIQ CITY.UNIQ ZIP.UNIQ
1 WA 655915.3 3619 2508 155 261
2 CA 17855.0 51 44 27 31
3 TX 12905.0 21 8 8 8
4 VA 7750.0 10 6 3 4
5 OR 6755.0 14 7 5 7
6 DC 5000.0 8 7 1 5
7 MO 3800.0 4 3 2 3
8 IL 3300.0 6 4 3 3
9 PA 3160.0 4 4 3 4
10 WV 3100.0 11 9 3 6
I will look briefly at the top ten donor cities and then present more graphs later. It has been noted by the Republicans in some debates that environmentalists from Seattle are funding the Democrats campaign. The charge may contain some accuracy, but it should be noted that the Republican candidates have received substantial donations from Seattle as well. (See tables below). Furthermore, Republicans have received substantial donations from Olympia that the Democrats have not.
ALL Parties Top Ten By Donation Amount:
City SUM CONTRIB CONTRIB.UNIQ STATE.UNIQ ZIP.UNIQ
1 BELLINGHAM 210029.75 1783 1178 2 8
2 SEATTLE 132232.00 363 288 2 44
3 OLYMPIA 50952.32 93 57 1 13
4 LYNDEN 31030.00 310 214 1 1
5 BLAINE 21730.58 114 76 1 2
6 EVERSON 21555.00 134 84 1 1
7 FERNDALE 16030.00 135 85 1 1
8 BELLEVUE 11929.50 31 26 1 6
9 SPOKANE 6736.25 14 11 1 9
10 HOUSTON 6650.00 11 2 1 2
Democrats Top Ten By Donation Amount:
City SUM CONTRIB CONTRIB.UNIQ STATE.UNIQ ZIP.UNIQ
1 BELLINGHAM 136397.75 1255 879 2 5
2 SEATTLE 76632.00 278 238 2 36
3 EVERSON 11535.00 65 40 1 1
4 LYNDEN 7715.00 58 45 1 1
5 BLAINE 7400.00 54 38 1 1
6 OLYMPIA 7368.99 23 20 1 8
7 FERNDALE 6435.00 49 27 1 1
8 LUMMI ISLAND 6040.00 60 28 1 1
9 TUKWILA 4850.00 7 4 1 2
10 RENTON 3695.00 11 10 2 7
Republicans Top Ten By Donation Amount:
City SUM CONTRIB CONTRIB.UNIQ STATE.UNIQ ZIP.UNIQ
1 BELLINGHAM 73632.00 528 299 2 8
2 SEATTLE 55600.00 85 50 1 23
3 OLYMPIA 43583.33 70 38 1 11
4 LYNDEN 23315.00 252 169 1 1
5 BLAINE 14330.58 60 38 1 2
6 EVERSON 10020.00 69 44 1 1
7 FERNDALE 9595.00 86 58 1 1
8 BELLEVUE 8900.00 16 12 1 5
9 HOUSTON 6650.00 11 2 1 2
10 SPOKANE 6650.00 8 5 1 5
Top Donation Frequencies Sorted by Amount
The following two lattice charts take the top donation frequencies and then sort them by amount. These charts give some idea of the importance of high end donations less than $300. Even though we see more blue than red in these panels, Democrat donations are smaller and skewed toward low end donations. The high end red gives the Republicans their lead in total donation amount.
By Unique Contributor Amount
The following charts shows the 2,635 LD 42nd unique contributors and their donation amounts. However the top graph is rendered meaningless by the one $20K Democrat Party donation and a very long tail of small donations. The charts below cap the maximum donations and separate the parties.
Now we see how with many less contributors (R:963 - D:1673) at higher dollar amounts (R:$410,472 - D:$337,753) the Republican Party in Whatcom County is able to command a fundraising lead over the Democrats.
By State
The first chart below is all contributions for the $92,311 from states other than WA. Beneath, I break the out of state donations into their respective parties: Republicans ($77,885) and Democrats ($14,426).
By City
Next we look at the $391,448 that have been contributed by cities not Bellingham; $246,695 which has gone to the Republican Party and $172,045 which has been contributed to the Democrats.
No comments:
Post a Comment