The charts and data below the break are dedicated to all you Berners that want to sign up to run for Legislative Districts next week, the third week of May, when Filing Week opens. See PDFs and FAQs here: 1, 2, 3, 4 . You are probably wondering how many Berners are out there, will they vote for you, can you really take back that LD and become a progressive force in the Olympia? I will let you answer all the tough questions while you lie awake at night. Below the break are some data and charts to chew on.
Data
library(data.table)
nrow(vdbAW)
#Active WA Voters as of 05/01/2016:
4,080,015
nrow(vdbAW) - 4053059
# Active WA Voter as of 05/01/2016 - Active WA Voters as of 04/01/2016:
26,956
round((nrow(vdbAW) - 4053059) / 30)
# Average number of voters added to WA active rolls each day of April 2016:
899
vdbAW[BirthYear >=1980,.N]
# Active Voters with Birth Years greater than or equal to 1980 (e.g. 36 years of age):
1,136,191
scales::percent(vdbAW[BirthYear >=1980,.N] /vdbAW[,.N])
# PCT of Active Voters in WA with Birth Years greater than or equal to 1980 (e.g. 36 years of age):
"27.8%"
The following data is from an Active Voter History (05/01/2016) only. Contemporaneous observations would have been much higher for all earlier years. However, it is doubtful WA state has ever seen an increase in voter registration for Millennials as it has in the first four months 2016.
Year BirthYear >= 1980 Reg_Per_Month
2016 102404 25601*
2015 172467 14372
2014 122719 10227
2013 86435 7203
2012 151364 12614
2008 101708 8476
*Figure for 2016 is January - April only
102404/4
# ~25K Voters born on or after 1980 registered in the first four months of 2016:
25,601
(102404/4) * 12
# At the current rate of Millennial registration, at least ~307K will register to vote by January 1, 2017:
307,212
CountyCode Active_Registrants Top Ten Counties
1: KI 1231217
2: PI 463200
3: SN 436140
4: SP 294307
5: CR 259063
6: TH 166416
7: KP 158138
8: WM 132480
9: YA 109705
10: BE 101913
scales::percent(Top10[,sum(V1)] / CountyPop[,sum(V1)])
# Percentage of registrants from top ten counties:
"82.2%"
Charts
Click to enlarge all charts.
Bar Plots by LD
Univariate Box Plots (TRUE only represented . This is equivalent to a simple plot of data. )
LD Bivariate Box Plots (TRUE and FALSE represented)
These are R 3.25 boxplot stats (whiskers= {min,max} , bar{1st QR, 3rd QR}, median{black horizontal bar})
Millennial Registration Rates: BirthYear >= 1980 for Counties with Active Registrants > 100K
- CC = County Code
- Mill.NA = Millennials LastYearVoted is not recorded
- Mill.2014plus =Millennials LastYearVote >= 2014
- All.Mill = All Millenials ( BirthYear >= 1980)
- Total = Total Registrants (May 1, 2016)
More the 82% of all WA registered active voters live in these top ten counties.
| Sorted by Total Registrants | |||||||
| CC | Mill.NA | Mill.2014plus | All.Mill | Total | Mill.PCTNA | Mill.PCT2014plus | All.Mill.PCT |
| KI | 136,110 | 149,801 | 374,314 | 1,231,217 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 30.4 |
| PI | 52,050 | 45,277 | 133,511 | 463,200 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 28.8 |
| SN | 43,510 | 43,960 | 122,046 | 436,140 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 28.0 |
| SP | 32,824 | 30,904 | 83,966 | 294,307 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 28.5 |
| CR | 29,731 | 21,007 | 68,426 | 259,063 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 26.4 |
| TH | 19,224 | 15,184 | 44,725 | 166,416 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 26.9 |
| KP | 16,017 | 14,373 | 40,422 | 158,138 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 25.6 |
| WM | 14,465 | 17,343 | 40,578 | 132,480 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 30.6 |
| YA | 14,905 | 9,114 | 33,005 | 109,705 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 30.1 |
| BE | 11,415 | 10,331 | 28,433 | 101,913 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 27.9 |
| Sorted by Mill.PCTNA | |||||||
| CC | Mill.NA | Mill.2014plus | All.Mill | Total | Mill.PCTNA | Mill.PCT2014plus | All.Mill.PCT |
| YA | 14,905 | 9,114 | 33,005 | 109,705 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 30.1 |
| TH | 19,224 | 15,184 | 44,725 | 166,416 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 26.9 |
| CR | 29,731 | 21,007 | 68,426 | 259,063 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 26.4 |
| PI | 52,050 | 45,277 | 133,511 | 463,200 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 28.8 |
| BE | 11,415 | 10,331 | 28,433 | 101,913 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 27.9 |
| SP | 32,824 | 30,904 | 83,966 | 294,307 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 28.5 |
| KI | 136,110 | 149,801 | 374,314 | 1,231,217 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 30.4 |
| WM | 14,465 | 17,343 | 40,578 | 132,480 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 30.6 |
| KP | 16,017 | 14,373 | 40,422 | 158,138 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 25.6 |
| SN | 43,510 | 43,960 | 122,046 | 436,140 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 28.0 |
| Sorted by Mill.PCT2014plus | |||||||
| CC | Mill.NA | Mill.2014plus | All.Mill | Total | Mill.PCTNA | Mill.PCT2014plus | All.Mill.PCT |
| WM | 14,465 | 17,343 | 40,578 | 132,480 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 30.6 |
| KI | 136,110 | 149,801 | 374,314 | 1,231,217 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 30.4 |
| SP | 32,824 | 30,904 | 83,966 | 294,307 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 28.5 |
| BE | 11,415 | 10,331 | 28,433 | 101,913 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 27.9 |
| SN | 43,510 | 43,960 | 122,046 | 436,140 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 28.0 |
| PI | 52,050 | 45,277 | 133,511 | 463,200 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 28.8 |
| TH | 19,224 | 15,184 | 44,725 | 166,416 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 26.9 |
| KP | 16,017 | 14,373 | 40,422 | 158,138 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 25.6 |
| YA | 14,905 | 9,114 | 33,005 | 109,705 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 30.1 |
| CR | 29,731 | 21,007 | 68,426 | 259,063 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 26.4 |
| Sorted by All.Mill.PCT | |||||||
| CC | Mill.NA | Mill.2014plus | All.Mill | Total | Mill.PCTNA | Mill.PCT2014plus | All.Mill.PCT |
| WM | 14,465 | 17,343 | 40,578 | 132,480 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 30.6 |
| KI | 136,110 | 149,801 | 374,314 | 1,231,217 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 30.4 |
| YA | 14,905 | 9,114 | 33,005 | 109,705 | 13.6 | 8.3 | 30.1 |
| PI | 52,050 | 45,277 | 133,511 | 463,200 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 28.8 |
| SP | 32,824 | 30,904 | 83,966 | 294,307 | 11.2 | 10.5 | 28.5 |
| SN | 43,510 | 43,960 | 122,046 | 436,140 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 28.0 |
| BE | 11,415 | 10,331 | 28,433 | 101,913 | 11.2 | 10.1 | 27.9 |
| TH | 19,224 | 15,184 | 44,725 | 166,416 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 26.9 |
| CR | 29,731 | 21,007 | 68,426 | 259,063 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 26.4 |
| KP | 16,017 | 14,373 | 40,422 | 158,138 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 25.6 |
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