Below are two bar plots that show Republican voters are making some gains in COB and other liberal precincts since 2016. This data looks at marginal percentage differences for 87 (February Special Election) precincts between:
- 2016: Clinton vs. Trump
- 2017: Buchanan vs. Robinson
- 2018: BPS501_Approved vs. BPS501 Rejected.
These elections had
- completely different turnouts
- precincts changes between 2016 and 2017
- partial precincts for some of the February Special Election
- and (for convenience) I am using 02/2018 active registrants total for all elections.
I am wary of narratives that show Republican strength decreasing either here or across the nation. The Republican model for securing a favorable electorate looks much different than the Democratic model: social conservatives, quiet Americans, silent majorities may not march in the streets as much, but they may well meet at church every Sunday. This doesn't mean Republicans aren't winning votes or that Democratic activism isn't alienating swing voters. Click to enlarge chart.
Some of the R Code
library(data.table)r7b = [
PctVoted2016,
PctVoted2017,
PctVoted2018=PctVoted,
AllPres,
AllCounty,
AllBPS,
D2016=(Clinton+Stein) - (Trump + Johnson),
D2017=(Buchanan - Robinson),
D2018=(BPS501_YES - BPS501_NO))]
r7c = [
PctVoted2016,
PctVoted2017,
PctVoted2018,
AllPres,
AllCounty,
AllBPS,
D2016,
D2017,
D2018,
Mar2016=round(D2016/AllPres,3),
Mar2017=round(D2017/AllCounty,3),
Mar2018=round(D2018/AllBPS,3))]
r7d = r7c[,`:=`(Dem_mar_diff2018.2016 = (Mar2018 - Mar2016), Dem_mar_diff2018.2017 = (Mar2018 - Mar2017))]
r7d[,.(PrecinctCode,AllPres,AllCounty,AllBPS,Dem_mar_diff2018.2016,
Dem_mar_diff2018.2017)]
PrecinctCode AllPres AllCounty AllBPS Dem_mar_diff2018.2016 Dem_mar_diff2018.2017
1: 134 832 438 340 -0.173 -0.056
2: 135 673 240 131 0.042 0.295
3: 136 633 442 338 0.089 0.260
4: 157 237 121 97 -0.227 -0.125
5: 159 219 118 92 0.031 0.295
6: 160 760 399 317 -0.033 0.155
7: 161 468 252 212 -0.095 0.075
8: 162 588 340 251 -0.079 0.095
9: 168 803 514 406 -0.077 0.198
10: 169 950 594 456 -0.074 0.035
11: 170 453 299 210 0.073 0.381
12: 171 764 447 337 -0.083 0.084
13: 172 447 263 182 -0.143 -0.038
14: 173 544 339 258 -0.160 0.187
15: 174 628 290 201 -0.041 0.234
16: 175 791 371 288 0.066 0.105
17: 176 552 298 240 -0.160 0.026
18: 177 508 254 202 -0.032 -0.009
19: 178 791 352 268 -0.118 0.014
20: 180 572 399 309 -0.148 -0.107
21: 181 893 464 394 -0.100 0.142
22: 202 492 290 235 0.097 0.252
23: 203 780 415 314 0.013 0.147
24: 204 469 187 128 0.165 0.212
25: 205 500 275 216 -0.085 0.002
26: 206 874 468 290 -0.095 -0.003
27: 207 440 290 193 -0.015 -0.039
28: 208 1066 552 376 -0.137 -0.099
29: 209 679 463 319 -0.085 -0.013
30: 210 758 599 412 -0.150 -0.057
31: 211 745 332 247 -0.066 0.178
32: 212 575 260 197 0.050 0.235
33: 213 852 562 418 0.035 0.181
34: 214 604 424 290 -0.032 0.040
35: 215 722 469 338 -0.069 0.041
36: 216 649 483 341 -0.065 0.065
37: 217 493 264 186 -0.054 0.088
38: 218 566 232 183 0.166 0.519
39: 219 634 344 239 -0.061 0.026
40: 220 750 350 256 0.017 0.289
41: 221 658 380 304 0.142 0.312
42: 222 862 594 456 -0.045 0.028
43: 223 463 297 188 -0.054 0.007
44: 224 322 158 103 -0.141 0.079
45: 225 1078 486 297 0.074 0.241
46: 226 606 282 138 -0.017 0.165
47: 227 786 379 249 -0.059 0.036
48: 228 794 447 228 -0.082 -0.013
49: 229 830 342 233 -0.198 -0.036
50: 230 610 256 137 -0.153 0.018
51: 231 880 401 229 -0.112 0.087
52: 232 730 449 364 0.006 0.057
53: 233 673 393 283 -0.094 -0.024
54: 234 698 414 329 0.033 0.161
55: 235 400 265 195 0.049 0.219
56: 237 445 426 350 -0.077 0.113
57: 238 529 305 222 0.045 0.104
58: 239 813 481 354 -0.010 0.064
59: 240 721 437 343 -0.027 0.010
60: 241 564 351 236 0.057 0.267
61: 242 439 247 224 -0.115 0.027
62: 243 636 409 297 -0.050 -0.029
63: 244 733 446 323 -0.070 0.102
64: 245 685 204 85 0.160 0.298
65: 246 717 359 201 -0.111 0.014
66: 247 756 333 143 -0.046 0.052
67: 248 668 261 205 -0.058 0.282
68: 249 805 455 346 0.008 0.067
69: 250 886 604 484 -0.277 -0.153
70: 251 617 438 353 -0.143 -0.013
71: 252 311 115 37 0.059 0.362
72: 253 1046 394 214 0.042 0.307
73: 254 567 370 254 -0.013 0.243
74: 255 538 275 187 -0.043 0.249
75: 256 680 435 303 -0.103 -0.054
76: 257 655 283 151 -0.163 0.058
77: 258 825 498 297 -0.144 0.022
78: 259 429 275 197 -0.077 0.274
79: 260 510 367 290 -0.040 0.009
80: 261 506 356 304 -0.102 0.110
81: 262 662 377 247 -0.110 0.001
82: 263 784 378 240 -0.032 0.121
83: 264 654 432 382 -0.265 -0.145
84: 265 495 325 275 -0.058 0.105
85: 266 665 444 358 -0.092 0.019
86: 268 41 20 17 -0.388 -0.312
87: 269 111 49 30 -0.004 0.253
PrecinctCode AllPres AllCounty AllBPS Dem_mar_diff2018.2016 Dem_mar_diff2018.2017
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