Friday, November 30, 2018

Recount underway for LD 42nd

The hand recount is underway for the 42nd LD. "Final" certified results are here. A chart of the November 27th "final" (before recount) results is below as is a chart of all Whatcom County Results .Wide screen will be best for the second all county chart. Click to enlarge the charts.

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Tuesday 11/26/2018 Certified Matchbacks for LD 42 and Whatcom County

Ahead of today's WM 3:00 PM final certified results, below the break are this mornings certified matchbacks.

Tuesday, November 20, 2018

One of these All County races was not like the others...

Click to enlarge. The all Democrat Erb vs. Richey Prosecutor's race defied red vs blue precinct patterns.
Analysis currently under construction, but  more charts below. Note that my data is precinct derived from 11/20/2018 and will need to be updated after certification. Also two precincts (269, 271) are 'protected' due to low participation for the Senate and County race, My totals don't reflect those precinct contributions.  Requires wide screen. Click to enlarge the charts.

Monday, November 19, 2018

Monday 11/19/2018 Matchbacks for LD 42 and Whatcom County

Only 150 signature issues remain to be cured in LD 42 as of 11/19/2018.  That is remarkable.
I list the signature issues remaining in LD 42 by precinct 'series' and by precinct 'decade' + residence city below the break. This post will require a wide screen.

Sunday, November 18, 2018

GE 2018 Results: The 163x Initiative Measures

As of 11/18/2018 enough results have been returned to reasonably assess the WA state county results. Below are lattice graphs and a table for WA  GE 2018 Initiative Measures labelled by 163x ranked by county. These initiative measures were:
  • 1639 Gun Control
  • 1634 Anti Grocery tax
  • 1631 Pro Carbon Tax
The top 5 counties have such larger populations than the lesser 34 that concurrent display of different volumes obscures vote patterns. I segregate the county results in four different aggregated charts as labeled below. For each county, the three rows signify  'Yes' votes for  1639,1634 and 1631, ordered from top to bottom.   Subjectively, a pattern of 1634 (red middle bar) extending beyond 1639 (top blue bar) and 1631 (bottom blue bar) would indicate a conservative vote. Subjectively, the inverse would indicate a liberal vote.  For example, in the chart below, both San Juan and Jefferson have a more "liberal profile" than either "conservative" Walla Walla or Lewis County. In reality, these are second amendment, environmentalist, and sales tax issues such that any number of mixed votes might inhabit a largely independent or non-partisan voting populace as is much of WA state. All of the counties are backed off (left) the origin (0) an equal amount to make the smaller counties seem more visible. Click to enlarge the graphs.
Liberal vs. Conservative samples

Friday, November 16, 2018

Friday 11/16/2018 Matchbacks for LD 42 and Whatcom County

This is our last dance
This is ourselves under pressure
Under pressure
David Bowie from "Under Pressure"

I have heard from third party reports of those who attended the Friday Canvassing Board meeting that the Auditor wants the rest of the challenged ballots in ASAP. This  week, Thursday and Friday are the Thanksgiving Holiday. Certification is Tuesday November 27th. Check to make sure your ballot has been accepted for tabulation and/or call Elections and/or talk with your political parties. Additionally, if the Auditor/Elections has sent you any mail or left phone messages, make sure to respond ASAP.  Matchback reports below the break.

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

News links for the Great Misdelivered/Undelivered, Three County Ballot Scandal....

This year I covered the four county area (SK,SJ,WM,IS) because of the pertaining appellate judicial race. In the middle of the election a "ballot scandal" developed. I think all three counties most affected recovered. Skagit is having a slow count because of a "folded ballot" issue. When SK ballots are counted, they should join the 75% turnout club as well. Here is where those four counties stand as of the evening of  11/14/2018: From

Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Friday and Tuesday matchbacks for LD42

No results different than Friday tonight for Whatcom County. Friday and Tuesday's matchbacks for LD 42 are compared below.

Sunday, November 11, 2018

Did You Cure Your Challenged Ballot? The Close Vote in the 42nd LD!

WA Voters will have cast over 3.1M votes by the end of next week, simply one of the most fabulous mid term elections in WA history. In Whatcom County, we have already counted more votes than any other election in our history save GE 2016!  But there is always a dark side: The larger the vote, the larger the volume of challenged ballots! Most people probably don't check after casting their vote by mail (or dropbox) ballot in WA State and they really should. Because many thousands statewide every election have their ballots challenged and many don't receive any cures! It is hard to get an accurate number for this without looking at every county matchback, so let us examine Whatcom County's matchback for VBMReturnStatus and VBMReturnChallenge for 11/13/2018 in LD 42:

Thursday, November 8, 2018

Four Rs and Four Ds in GE2018

Below are Cantwell, Vargas, Shewmake, Boneau (blue overlapped)  vs. Hutchison, Ericksen, Buys, VanWerven (red overlapped) for GE 2018 as of 11/08/2016 results. Bottom chart has Clinton+Stein vs. Trump+Johnson overlays. Click to enlarge.