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Friday, May 17, 2019

2018 Net Migration

Below are some charts I created with the help of Kyle Walker's excellent tidycensus library and also a few other important libraries like tidyverse and sf. For more information, please see:

# https://walkerke.github.io/tidycensus/ 
# https://walkerke.github.io/tidycensus/articles/basic-usage.html
# https://walkerke.github.io/tidycensus/articles/other-datasets.html
https://api.census.gov/data/2018/pep/components/variables.html
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/guidance/handbooks.html
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/kingcountywashington
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/whatcomcountywashington/PST045218

For me, the effect of this map is to show vast swaths of the midwest and northeast draining into states like Florida, Georgia,Texas, Washington, Oregon and to a lesser degree Colorado, North Dakota, Nevada and Arizona. Washington and Georgia Counties are shown as separate maps. If I had to guess, I would say much of the country is fed up with polar freezes, drought, fire and hurricanes. Apparently, they have decided to trade all of that for continual drizzle and rain in Portland and Seattle. Or maybe there are only three choices now for really smart youth seeking high incomes: San Francisco, Portland, or Seattle. Some example data and 2015:2018 growth Census derived tables for King and Whatcom Counties are far below. Click to enlarge the maps.

US Maps

The two US maps for 2018 below are (1) rate of net migration and  (2) net migration. These charts paint a similar picture except that the rate of net migration has five categories and the net migration has seven. If the "US is full", obviously certain areas are more "filled" than others. Reputedly, about 14%  or  40M of the US population moves each year. Typically there are urban and/or job seeking biases to migratory flows in the US. More information from the US Census here. Click to enlarge the maps.



State Maps


WA State 2018

Georgia State 2018

WA State Net Migration from Google Earth Shapefile Snapshot


WA State Net Migration Totals for Counties with over 2K in Net Migration for 2018. See table below.

2018 WA Population Change Data for Net Migration and Net Migration Rate

Table is ranked descending by Net Migration.
RNETMIG == Net Migration per 100K residents.

                 NAME    NETMIG RNETMIG
 1:         King County  28385  13.4772265
 2:    Snohomish County   8061  10.5547358
 3:       Pierce County   7636   9.1414835
 4:        Clark County   6410  14.1616304
 5:       Kitsap County   4948  19.3004183
 6:      Spokane County   4327   8.9062701
 7:      Whatcom County   2898  13.7949090
 8:       Benton County   2472  13.1189997
 9:     Thurston County   2090   7.8425634
10:       Skagit County   1392  11.5233696
11:       Island County   1151  14.5027059
12:      Cowlitz County   1148  11.2082558
13:      Clallam County   1057  14.5093652
14:      Whitman County   1027  21.6110433
15:       Chelan County    678   9.0828103
16:        Lewis County    584   7.7723138
17:      Douglas County    534  13.2911865
18:        Mason County    474   7.7929765
19:      Pacific County    425  20.5140582
20:     Kittitas County    377   8.7992624
21:  Walla Walla County    368   6.1583774
22:    Jefferson County    366  12.1051761
23: Grays Harbor County    279   3.9348424
24:     San Juan County    248  15.3999006
25: Pend Oreille County    184  14.1516690
26:      Stevens County    118   2.7122072
27:    Klickitat County    111   5.3032656
28:      Lincoln County     63   6.1415481
29:     Okanogan County     49   1.1863832
30:     Garfield County     18   8.1392720
31:     Columbia County     17   4.2794210
32:    Wahkiakum County     11   2.7261462
33:     Skamania County     -3  -0.2636783
34:        Ferry County    -60  -7.9422861
35:       Asotin County    -70  -3.1606276
36:        Grant County   -136  -1.4573667
37:        Adams County   -199 -10.3527208
38:     Franklin County   -264  -2.9911286
39:       Yakima County  -1130  -4.5646330
                   NAME NETMIG     RNETMIG


Some Example Population Change Data for Whatcom and King Counties

King County (2.2M) has experienced an estimated 15.6% population change from April 2010 to July 2018. Whatcom County (225K) has experienced an estimated 12.2% population change from April 2010 to July 2018. The categories in the tables below are abbreviated for space:
  •  YEAR 
  • DOMESTICMIG
  • INTERNATIONALMIG
  • NATURALINC
  • NETMIG
  • RDOMESTICMIG
  • RINTERNATIONALMIG
  • RNETMIG

Select King County migration and natural increase data for 2015 : 2018

 YEAR   DOMESTICMIG             INTMIG            NATINC   NETMIG        RDOMMIG                    RINTMIG     RNETMIG
2015        5965            16269      12714  22234     2.840873          7.748226 10.589099
2016        8511            15500      12325  24011     3.991815          7.269784 11.261598
2017        2802            17327      12517  20129     1.289874          7.976318  9.266192
2018        7044            21341      12414  28385     3.344498         10.132728 13.477227

King County 2018: Natural Increase (Births - Deaths) +  Net Migration (Domestic + International):
  • Let 'resident' refer to both natural and migratory population increase
  • Let 'immigrant' refer to only domestic or international migration increase
(12414 + 28385) / 12
[1] 3399.917 # new residents each month
(28385) / 12
[1] 2365.417 # new immigrants each month
(12414 + 28385) / 365
[1] 111.7781 # new residents each day
(28385) / 365
[1] 77.76712  # new immigrants each day


Select Whatcom County migration and natural increase data for 2015 : 2018

 YEAR DOMESTICMIG                 INTMIG    NATINC   NETMIG       RDOMMIG                    RINTMIG     RNETMIG
2015        2374              471        805   2845     11.28394          2.238726 13.52267
2016        3305              397        791   3702     15.40922          1.850971 17.26019
2017        3950              421        737   4371     18.04980          1.923789 19.97359
2018        2332              566        798   2898     11.10067          2.694244 13.79491

Whatcom County 2018: Natural Increase (Births - Deaths) +  Net Migration (Domestic + International):
  • Let 'resident' refer to both natural and migratory population increase.
  • Let 'immigrant' refer to only domestic or international migration increase.
(798 + 2898) / 12 
[1] 308 # new residents each month
(2898) / 12
[1] 241.5         # new immigrants each month
(798 + 2898) / 365
[1] 10.12603 # new residents each day
(2898) / 365
[1] 7.939726 # new immigrants each day

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