Summary:
Exactly 275,000 have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in last night's (10/24/2019) statewide matchback. Another 4,707 have been rejected or 'challenged'. The WA SoS counts this as 279,694 'Ballots Received' for a turnout of 6.2%. However, this total is ~18% of the approximately 1.5M votes received for each of the 2015 and 2017 ('off year') general elections.
The current vote is dominated by those born in the 1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79). These two decades have a combined 134,462 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 24% of that (134,462) total with 31,721 ballots accepted. The "youth" or millennial vote in WA has yet to emerge with strength or volume.
Men are currently out voting women in almost every county and this is remarkable given the current political environment and the fact that ~170K more women are registered than men statewide. I am reminded that I noticed this trend in July 2018. For the state as a whole:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 123592 134681 # ready for tabulation
2: Received 7870 7834 # in the chute
3: Rejected 2176 2479 # challenged
For our neck of woods: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 7007 7416
2: Rejected 57 73
Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing:
# [All State Matchback: 11.24.2019]
sMB102419[,.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 259254
2: Received 15746
3: Rejected 4707
# All status active as of October 1 (4.47M)
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N]
[1] 4479369
# Percentage 'Accepted' plus 'Received' as of 10.23.2019
(259254+15746)/VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N] * 100
[1] 6.13
# See also https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx
#[All State: Challenge Reason]
sMB102419[BallotStatus == "Rejected",.N,]
[1] 4707
sMB102419[,.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 275009 # Not Challenged
2: Signature Does Not Match 1276
3: Unsigned 1184
4: Undeliverable 1053
5: Review 651
6: HOLD 225
7: Other than Voter 92
8: Ballot Style Change 44
9: Deceased 29
10: No Signature on File 25
11: ID Required 23
12: Advanced Special Ballot 22
13: Canvassing Board 15
14: Power of Attorney 15
15: Hold 9
16: Marked Moved 8
17: Invalid 8
18: Empty Envelope 6
19: Voter Name Change 5
20: Other Than Voter 3
21: Witness Signature Missing 3
22: Id Required 2
ChallengeReason N
# [Whatcom County]
sMB102419[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 9240
2: Rejected 59
sMB102419[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 9240 # Not Challenged
2: Unsigned 22
3: Signature Does Not Match 18
4: Other than Voter 9
5: HOLD 9
6: Deceased 1
sMB102419[,.N,.Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 2 106 4495 25233 65295 69167 38653 24582 19900 10558 1263
2: Received 0 7 251 1448 3865 4252 2465 1494 1178 707 79
3: Rejected 0 1 90 327 609 859 725 650 683 670 93
sMB102419[Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender,value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 123592 134681
2: Received 7870 7834
3: Rejected 2176 2479
sMB102419[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 9 305 1537 4111 3909 1785 1210 956 544 73
2: Rejected 0 7 15 28 26 22 12 11 8 2
# Gender registration in just our neck of woods: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan
VR[StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: M 112703
2: F 123648
3: 425
4: U 52
5: O 14
sMB102419[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),][
Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
aetnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),.("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 7007 7416
2: Rejected 57 73
[From MatchBack]
sMB102419[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)]
County Gender N
1: San Juan M 401
2: San Juan F 375
3: Skagit M 2330
4: Skagit F 2159
5: Whatcom M 4758
6: Whatcom F 4530
[From October 1,2019 VRDB Registration]
VR[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),
.N,.(CountyCode,Gender)][order(CountyCode,-Gender)]
CountyCode Gender N
1: SJ M 6481
2: SJ F 7164
3: SK M 36785
4: SK F 40808
5: WM M 69437
6: WM F 75676
# October 1st VRDB WA ('whole enchilada')
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: M 2145204
2: F 2313683
3: U 14549
4: 5806
5: O 127
sMB102419[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)][,
dcast(.SD, County ~ Gender,value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)][,
.(County,Male=M,Female=F)][,
.SD[,.(Pct.Male=round(Male/(Male+Female),3) * 100)],
.(County,Male,Female)]
County Male Female Pct.Male
1: Adams 187 179 51.1
2: Asotin 602 577 51.1
3: Benton 3159 2873 52.4
4: Chelan 1923 1805 51.6
5: Clallam 2212 2157 50.6
6: Clark 6596 5972 52.5
7: Columbia 57 62 47.9
8: Cowlitz 882 769 53.4
9: Douglas 1038 1007 50.8
10: Ferry 308 272 53.1
11: Franklin 879 812 52.0
12: Garfield 39 39 50.0
13: Grant 1626 1458 52.7
14: Grays Harbor 2372 2498 48.7
15: Island 2342 2144 52.2
16: Jefferson 1357 1258 51.9
17: King 42124 37788 52.7
18: Kitsap 7062 6442 52.3
19: Kittitas 981 883 52.6
20: Klickitat 306 311 49.6
21: Lewis 1959 1773 52.5
22: Lincoln 415 386 51.8
23: Mason 2543 2274 52.8
24: Okanogan 843 778 52.0
25: Pacific 349 313 52.7
26: Pend Oreille 513 411 55.5
27: Pierce 14334 13027 52.4
28: San Juan 401 375 51.7
29: Skagit 2330 2159 51.9
30: Skamania 35 34 50.7
31: Snohomish 10476 9443 52.6
32: Spokane 15485 15240 50.4
33: Stevens 1513 1434 51.3
34: Thurston 7340 6922 51.5
35: Wahkiakum 61 54 53.0
36: Walla Walla 857 774 52.5
37: Whatcom 4758 4530 51.2
38: Whitman 642 588 52.2
39: Yakima 4088 3817 51.7
County Male Female Pct.Male
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