Exactly 610, 451 ballots have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in last night's (10/30/2019) statewide matchback. Another 8,323 have been rejected or 'challenged'. The WA SoS total for this is 618,984 'Ballots Received' for a turnout of 13.8%. This statewide total is ~41% of the approximately 1.5M votes received for each of the 2015 and 2017 ('off year') general elections. To see my piece on projected ballot totals for this election please see here.
The current vote is dominated by those born in the 1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79). These two decades have a combined 300,010 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 26% of that (300,010) total with 79,289 ballots accepted. That "youth" or millennial vote in WA still has not yet to compete with the pre-war and boomer votes in this general election. (That percentage is unchanged in the last two matchback reports.) GenXrs, those born in the 60s and 70s are contributing 155,966 votes. But keep in mind this amazing statistic: Those born in the 1930s (55,720 voted) are currently outvoting those born in the 1980s(48,735 voted). Say what you will about the older vote: Pre-wars and boomers vote like their lives depend upon it. Please see 'Age by Status' below. To see my updated and ongoing piece on WWU precinct turnout, see here.
Men are currently out voting women in 25 of 39 counties but this is the first time in my matchback reports that summed female and male votes are nearly equal. I am reminded that I noticed a strong male registration trend in July 2018. Personally, I am thinking this is male backlash to the women's movement, but more on that this weekend. For the state as a whole:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 299290 299815 # Ready for tabulation
2: Received 4687 4330 # In the chute
3: Rejected 3919 4319 # Challenged or Rejected
For our neck of woods (Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan), accepted female votes are ahead of male votes for the second time in these matchback reports:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 17816 17141
2: Rejected 166 205
Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing:
# [All State: 11.30.2019]
sMB103019[,.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 601402
2: Rejected 8323
3: Received 9049
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N]
[1] 4479369
# All status active as of October 1 (4.47M)
# Percentage Accepted and Received as of 10.30.2019
#(601402+9049)/VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N] * 100
See also https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx
#[All State: Challenge Reason]
sMB103019[BallotStatus == "Rejected",.N]
[1] 8323
sMB103019[,.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 610457 Accepted
2: Signature Does Not Match 3071
3: Unsigned 2422
4: Undeliverable 1198
5: Review 477
6: HOLD 450
7: Other than Voter 203
8: Ballot Style Change 151
9: Deceased 47
10: Marked Moved 45
11: ID Required 44
12: No Signature on File 38
13: Voter Name Change 28
14: Other Than Voter 28
15: Advanced Special Ballot 26
16: Canvassing Board 24
17: Empty Envelope 19
18: Hold 19
19: Witness Signature Missing 13
20: Invalid 6
21: Id Required 4
22: Power of Attorney 3
23: Power Of Attorney 1
ChallengeReason N
sMB103019[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 23085
2: Signature Does Not Match 75
3: Unsigned 51
4: Other than Voter 29
5: Ballot Style Change 18
6: HOLD 10
7: Review 7
8: Deceased 1
9: ID Required 1
10: Empty Envelope 1
# [Whatcom County]
sMB103019[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 23084
2: Rejected 194
Age By Status (All State):
sMB103019[,.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 2 221 10194 55720 142725 157285 95032 60934 48735 27137 3417
2: Received 0 3 113 665 1961 2250 1533 1080 802 569 73
3: Rejected 0 4 152 494 1020 1490 1258 1163 1247 1278 217
sMB103019[Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 299290 299815
2: Received 4687 4330
3: Rejected 3919 4319
Age By Status ("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"):
sMB103019[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 18 681 3576 9491 9243 4676 3099 2497 1532 218
2: Rejected 0 10 33 64 67 60 44 47 43 6
sMB103019[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),][
Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 17816 17141
2: Rejected 166 205
sMB103019[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)]
County Gender N
1: San Juan M 997
2: San Juan F 1034
3: Skagit M 5048
4: Skagit F 5026
5: Whatcom M 11301
6: Whatcom F 11922
VR[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),
.N,.(CountyCode,Gender)][order(CountyCode,-Gender)]
CountyCode Gender N
1: SJ M 6481
2: SJ F 7164
3: SK M 36785
4: SK F 40808
5: WM M 69437
6: WM F 75676
# October 1st VRDB WA ('whole enchilada')
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: M 2145204
2: F 2313683
3: 5806
4: U 14549
5: O 127
# Status Active just our neck of woods: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan
VR[StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: F 123648
2: M 112703
3: 425
4: U 52
5: O 14
sMB103019[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)][,
dcast(.SD, County ~ Gender,value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)][,
.(County,Male=M,Female=F)][,
.SD[,.(Pct.Male=round(Male/(Male+Female),3) * 100)],
.(County,Male,Female)]
* = female outvoting male
County Male Female Pct.Male
1: Adams 491 523 48.4 *
2: Asotin 1379 1416 49.3 *
3: Benton 6795 6558 50.9
4: Chelan 4029 4030 50.0 *
5: Clallam 4572 4745 49.1 *
6: Clark 17191 17158 50.0
7: Columbia 294 284 50.9
8: Cowlitz 4242 4138 50.6
9: Douglas 1974 2022 49.4 *
10: Ferry 596 544 52.3
11: Franklin 2058 1997 50.8
12: Garfield 160 159 50.2
13: Grant 3344 3207 51.0
14: Grays Harbor 3955 4251 48.2 *
15: Island 4904 4924 49.9 *
16: Jefferson 2439 2537 49.0 *
17: King 89213 87325 50.5
18: Kitsap 13044 12776 50.5
19: Kittitas 2318 2223 51.0
20: Klickitat 1176 1154 50.5
21: Lewis 4093 3956 50.9
22: Lincoln 928 910 50.5
23: Mason 4453 4275 51.0
24: Okanogan 1862 1793 50.9
25: Pacific 1111 1069 51.0
26: Pend Oreille 1020 923 52.5
27: Pierce 29792 29534 50.2
28: San Juan 997 1034 49.1 *
29: Skagit 5048 5026 50.1
30: Skamania 458 435 51.3
31: Snohomish 25520 25412 50.1
32: Spokane 29701 31354 48.6 *
33: Stevens 3056 2952 50.9
34: Thurston 13283 13586 49.4 *
35: Wahkiakum 207 199 51.0
36: Walla Walla 2353 2428 49.2 *
37: Whatcom 11301 11922 48.7 *
38: Whitman 1541 1559 49.7 *
39: Yakima 7566 7558 50.0
County Male Female Pct.Male
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