Voting picks up dramatically on the four days leading up to the election day and the day after. To understand how vote by mail makes the day after a large volume ballot reception day, please see here. The data here is actual (e.g. from Ballot Statistics) up until October 28th. 1.4M to 1.6M votes is my current best estimates, but a lot of turnout depends on final voting week. Those estimates would be consistent with the last local general election: GE 2017 which had 1,582,481 votes or 37.1% of the 4,265,433 registered voters. There are no separate Ballot Statistics calculated for most weekends. I substitute 11/7 data for the certified total in the data table below the break. Click to enlarge chart.
Date | Fill.Projected | Projection.Adjusted | AdjustFactor |
10/22/2019 | 129623 | 129623 | * |
10/23/2019 | 206287 | 206287 | * |
10/24/2019 | 279694 | 279694 | * |
10/25/2019 | 339918 | 339918 | * |
10/26/2019 | 414954 | 414954 | -Saturday |
10/27/2019 | 430160 | 430160 | -Sunday |
10/28/2019 | 445366 | 445366 | * |
10/29/2019 | 539462 | 539462 | - |
10/30/2019 | 594113 | 594113 | - |
10/31/2019 | 648765 | 648765 | - |
11/1/2019 | 703416 | 879270 | 1.25 |
11/2/2019 | 758067 | 1137101 | 1.5-Saturday |
11/3/2019 | 812718 | 1219077 | 1.5-Sunday |
11/4/2019 | 867369 | 1301054 | 1.5 |
11/5/2019 | 922021 | 1383031 | 1.5 Election |
11/6/2019 | 976672 | 1465008 | 1.5 Day After |
11/7/2019 | 1031323 | 1546985 | 1.5 Certified total? |
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