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Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Projections for Total Votes for GE 2019


Voting picks up dramatically on the four  days leading up to the election day and the day after. To understand how vote by mail makes the day after a large volume ballot reception day, please see here.  The data here is actual  (e.g. from Ballot Statistics) up until October 28th. 1.4M to 1.6M votes is my current best estimates, but a lot of turnout depends on final voting week. Those estimates would be consistent with the last local general election: GE 2017 which had 1,582,481  votes or 37.1% of the  4,265,433 registered voters. There are no separate Ballot Statistics calculated for most weekends.  I substitute 11/7 data for the certified total in the data table below the break. Click to enlarge chart.




Date Fill.Projected Projection.Adjusted  AdjustFactor
10/22/2019 129623 129623 *
10/23/2019 206287 206287 *
10/24/2019 279694 279694 *
10/25/2019 339918 339918 *
10/26/2019 414954 414954 -Saturday
10/27/2019 430160 430160 -Sunday
10/28/2019 445366 445366 *
10/29/2019 539462 539462 -
10/30/2019 594113 594113 -
10/31/2019 648765 648765 -
11/1/2019 703416 879270 1.25  
11/2/2019 758067 1137101 1.5-Saturday
11/3/2019 812718 1219077 1.5-Sunday
11/4/2019 867369 1301054 1.5
11/5/2019 922021 1383031 1.5 Election
11/6/2019 976672 1465008 1.5 Day After
11/7/2019 1031323 1546985 1.5 Certified total?

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