Monday, November 8, 2010

Whatcom County at 74,322 Votes Counted

A meager four thousand plus  ballots were counted over the weekend on Saturday. Linville's comeback attempt slipped a bit. Melious continued to slip further behind T. Larson. Essentially, all the other Dems who had extended their leads in recent counts, continued to do so. (Murray, Larsen, Lytton, Morris). The losing Democrats (Jerns, Jensen, Wiggins) held about even. It is unlikely that the last 12,000 votes will change any of this, with the longshot exception of Linville.  An increase in her voting might at least force a recount.  The ballot counting will probably conclude Tuesday, barring unforeseen consequences.

I find it important that the total votes for the federal county wide races (Murray, R. Larsen) are roughly nine thousand more than Melious/T. Larson county seat race.  (This phenomena is known as "fall off".) The initial ballot count on 'opening night' had the total participation between the races with about 5K difference.  The last two ballot counts have really opened up that gap to 9K.  I would suggest that is indicative that recent ballots counted had less interest in the county seat. Participation in the  40th state district in Whatcom County is remarkably equal (>10 votes) for both seats. This suggests  a very committed and  liberal block in the 40th that has given over 60% of the vote to both Morris and Lytton. The 40th state district plus the 42nd state district  total participation are nearly equal to Murray/Rossi turnouts. Clearly, were all of Whatcom County one district, it is unlikely that any Republicans would serve here in elected capacity. Interestingly enough, Morris and Lytton are not winning either Island or Skagit (where they both reside).  If Skagit/Island were one state district and Whatcom/San Juan another, the representation would clearly be Republican for Skagit/Island and Democratic for Whatcom/San Juan.

San Juan County is indisputably the most Democratic/Progressive vote in the WA State by percentage. It is  the only county with a chance of passing Initiative 1098 (pro Income Tax), which currently leads there, by a slim margin.  However unpopulated it may be, San Juan County is playing a critical role in this election for Murray, Rossi, Morris, Lytton.  It is either ironic or predictable, I suppose, that the only County who would vote for an income tax is the County with quite possibly the highest real estate valuations in WA state.

November 2, 2010
Certification Date:11/23/2010
Number of Precincts:120
Number of Registered Voters:116576
Total Ballots Cast:74322
Ballots Left to Count:12000
Next Ballot Count On:Nov 8 2010 7:30PM
Last Tabulated:Nov 8 2010 10:40AM
Voter Turnout:63.75%

[Whatcom County Results for 11/6/2010 with 12,000 ballots left to count]
Patty Murray 37883 72993 51.9
Dino Rossi 35110 72993 48.1
John Koster 34456 72871 47.28
Rick Larsen 38415 72871 52.72

Kristine Lytton 12261 20048 61.16
Mike Newman 7787 20048 38.84
Jeff Morris 12138 20058 60.51
John Swapp 7920 20058 39.49
Doug Ericksen 31089 51623 60.22
Pat Jerns 20534 51623 39.78
Jason Overstreet 27433 51517 53.25
Al Jensen 24084 51517 46.75
Vincent Buys 26367 52019 50.69
Kelli Linville 25652 52019 49.31

Richard B. Sanders 29939 58643 51.05
Charlie Wiggins 28704 58643 48.95
Jean Melious 28066 63915 43.91
Tony Larson 35849 63915 56.09

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