Friday, November 9, 2012

The Aftermath (Part II):Ballot fatigue? Local Candidates? Coattails not long enough?

An update to this post for  11/09/2012 (fourth count) is far below. I should mention that I am simply counting votes in 121  precincts that voted for 42 LD #1 #2 candidates when I frame the all county candidates (Inslee, Obama, Cantwell) in comparison. If the 42 LD runs right through precincts instead of using them whole as get the picture.

# Begin original post
As of the count for 11/08/2012 (third count):

In the charts below, the right of the 0 on the X axis is the difference by which the Democrats won that 42nd precinct vote. To the left of the 0 is the converse for the Republican challenger .  In other words, this how the Democrats are fairing for 42nd precincts only. On top row, McClendon and Krogh are getting hammered in the 42nd  with at least 25K votes still left to count as of last night. On the bottom row, Inslee gets similarly hammered, Obama/Biden a little less so, and Maria Cantwell comes out ahead (?) in the 42nd precincts! Countywide turnouts for the candidates (left out the minor candidates) in the three bottom row races are roughly equal to date:

Obama/Romney 75652
Cantwell/Baumgarten 76365
Inslee/McKenna 76481

The 42nd only turnouts are less (of course) but still roughly equal:

McClendon/Overstreet 49998
Krogh/Buys 49913

Is it ballot fatigue? Or were Obama and Cantwell's coattails just not enough for Inslee and the 42nd candidates?  Or is something not quite right with this vote?

# End original post

Below is an update for the 11/09/2012 count. Click on the images to enlarge. Using the same math as in my original post. On top are the profiles of three Democratic candidates who are currently all winning their county wides races: Inslee, Obama, Cantwell (in that order). Note again how well Cantwell is doing in the 42nd compared to Obama. Note how well Obama is doing compared to Inslee  who is clearly losing the 42nd.  Far below, Matt and Natalie keep getting creamed.

 All Whatcom County:Inslee,Obama,Cantwell  (e.g. 40 and 42nd WC precincts inclusive)

42nd precincts only

42nd LD #1 #2 (e.g. 42nd precincts only)

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