Wednesday, November 21, 2012

The Aftemath (Part VI): Why the Democrats could win WA 42nd LD

11.19.2012: Where Whatcom County stands with 3500 (probably contested)  votes to count:

Last updated on 11/19/2012 11:05 AM
Number of Precincts178
Number of Registered Voters125,485
Total Ballots Counted101,632
Estimated Ballots Left to Count3,500
Next Ballot Count On11/21/2012 4:30 PM
Last Tabulated11/19/2012 11:05 AM
Voter Turnout80.99%
Certification Date11/27/2012
Export ResultsCSV · XML
The remaining ballots are probably not just 'spoiled'.  They are probably 'contested' over missing signatures, tardiness, dead voters, etc. If they are all counted, then Whatcom County hits 84% 'turnout':

[float]((101632+3500)/125485)*100 = 83.78

The chart below proves the Democrats can win in the 120 42nd LD precincts. Natalie McClendon, Matt Krogh, and Jay Inslee will not.  Barck Obama/Joe Biden and Maria Cantwell have precinct totals that show another north county than the one where McClendon, Krogh, and Inslee lost. They show a 42nd LD that will carry the Democrats to victory if fully engaged.  Votes on the left side of the 0 axis are Republican. Converse for the Democrats. Each bar represents the vote difference between one of the  WA 42 LD precincts.   I have drawn a red line from the 'zero points' (even precinct vote totals) from McClendon [1] (crossing Inslee,Obama/Biden) to Cantwell. I will wait for the certification tallies and a new voter list to dig into the precinct totals. I want to see how much this phenomenon holds up in precincts across the state. Click to enlarge:

[1] Krogh and McClendon have closely parallel precinct totals.

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