Thursday, March 6, 2014

The Post Crimean World Order...

The U.S. blinked!  The situation is still fluid, but the apocalypse didn't happen.  The world will now pursue a "Post Crimean World Order".  In this new world, major economic powers will each pitch  the less powerful countries in the World. States from Ukraine to Ecuador will have some choices to make in alliances: US or Russia Federation or China or Brazil or... perhaps the "middle way" of balancing between all of them! Hey, it worked for the French!

Russia is not weak anymore. The United States economy is still too weak to engage in substantial military or economic risk. The neo-conservative / neo-liberal dream of interfering far and wide has seen limits. With the Asian axis developing strong capitalist economies, national power will become more globally diffuse or 'multilateral'.  In the 'Post Crimean World Order' the Asian economies will increase in power and strength.  Europe and Japan will to have to bend towards them.  The United States is in a difficult position for now. It's aggressive neo-colonial era launched under the guise of the 'war on terrorism' has resulted in lost international good will. But this can change.

My contention is that the world will be at  greater peace and eventually more prosperity with a stronger Russia. With a burgeoning capitalist economy of its own now, it should be able to help China, Brazil, India challenge the economic and political axis of the West. It is possible that with less (or more hard earned) foreign economic opportunity, the US may have no option but to substantially grow and innovate the domestic economy. This could increase the prosperity of the US workforce and shrink the wealth gap. It might also shrink all of our ridiculously bloated defense and intelligence budgets.  And that, dear reader, is an outcome worth hoping for!

Of course, there are always other outcomes.  The U.S. could become bitter and reactionary, engaging in more needless foreign intrusions. An impoverished America could fall into nationalism and elect right wing extremists convinced that nuclear wars are "winnable"....  But I don't think this is going to happen. The general public here is sick of sending there sons to die in foreign countries and hearing about how we supported neo-Nazis to overthrow elected governments like Ukraine.  Let us hope the future brings out the best in United States and the rest of this very large and growing world!

No comments: