Monday, July 28, 2014

The Campaign Financing War 07/27/2014 : Part II

Out of state donations to Republican candidates in WA 42nd  LD  are outdistancing Democratic candidates and powering the Republican party to a significant lead in the campaign finance war.

This is an update to Part I.  In the charts below, Republicans are red, Democrats are blue and the X axis label has respective contribution totals. Unlabeled Y Axis are dollars. Unlabeled X Axis are donors. All data is from the PDC. Click on the graphs to enlarge.

As total 42nd LD contributions near $400K, the Democratic candidates in the 42nd are trailing the Republican candidates $247K : $144K in the financing war. Although the Democrats show strength in donation numbers and smaller donations, they are being soundly defeated on the whole.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Your Ballot has arrived! At least it should have...

Cate Blanchett as  Lady Galadriel in "The Fellowship of the Ring"

 In addition to the official directions printed above, I am reprinting some advice (albeit with some edits) from a post I did four years ago on filling out your ballot and the insecurity of the vote by mail process:

Sunday, July 20, 2014

How many will vote? Predicting Election Outcomes: Part III

The key question for the Democrats in the 2014 election is whether or not they can turnout votes as strongly as they did in either the 2013 or (best bet) the 2012 General Elections. Clearly, when the turnout increases, the Democrats win in the 42nd. Cantwell, Obama, and Inslee all either won or held their ground in the 42nd in the 2012 General Election. The turnout, with OFA (e.g. Team Obama) in town was spectacular.  The 2013 turnout under Whatcom Wins and the Washington Conservation Voters couldn't quite match it, despite the fact that the turnout was good enough for the Democrats to reclaim the County Council. Looking at active voters as of 05/08/2014, we see a ~28K difference between those who voted in these elections :

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Fwd: Primary Election endorsements

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Greg Haffner, WA Democrats" <>
Date: Jul 18, 2014 12:20 PM
Subject: Primary Election endorsements
To: "Ryan Ferris" <>

Just a quick note —
Ballots for the Primary Election are in the mail this week. You have just a few weeks to get your ballot in the mail — Join Democrats across the state and mail your ballot by August 5th.
As a voter and concerned citizen, you know that every election matters. Your Primary ballot features critical races — for Congress, State Legislature, and local office — that will have a profound impact on our country and state.
If you're not sure which candidates should get your vote, we can help! There are Democratic Party endorsements for races up and down your ballot.
I Voted sticker
Just enter your name and location information, and you'll find a list of endorsements customized for your Primary ballot.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

How PURPLE is my precinct? Predicting Election Outcomes: Part II

"Are you discontented with the part you have been assigned in the whole? Recall the alternatives: Providence or atoms, and how many are the demonstrations, that the cosmos is a city."  Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius as quoted here.

The 2013 General Election: The Democrat/Republican divide as seen from the cumulative precinct returns for County Council 1A, 2A, 3A races. This chart shows the classic BLUE/RED City/County split with high density Bellingham urban and near urban areas voting BLUE, while most of the county votes RED.  Click to Enlarge.

Monday, July 14, 2014

Voter Stability - Predicting Election Outcomes : Part I

The busy political map of Whatcom County. Click to Enlarge.
Updated with some minor changes 1:41 PM 7/15/2014 -RMF
How do we predict voter outcomes?  How do we create lists of voters in order to contact all the important "swing" votes? Two predictors for voters are (1) past voting participation history and (2) precinct performance. We can say that a group of voters that has lived in a precinct that votes reliably RED or BLUE for some number of years has some level of predictability. I am looking at precincts vs. precincts, but the same prediction could therefore be made for any voters inside any one given precinct.  These type of probabilities are not the highly granular and storied 'micro-targeting' of OFA ('Team Obama') that was used in 2012, but they are a first step toward such.