Sunday, July 20, 2014

How many will vote? Predicting Election Outcomes: Part III

The key question for the Democrats in the 2014 election is whether or not they can turnout votes as strongly as they did in either the 2013 or (best bet) the 2012 General Elections. Clearly, when the turnout increases, the Democrats win in the 42nd. Cantwell, Obama, and Inslee all either won or held their ground in the 42nd in the 2012 General Election. The turnout, with OFA (e.g. Team Obama) in town was spectacular.  The 2013 turnout under Whatcom Wins and the Washington Conservation Voters couldn't quite match it, despite the fact that the turnout was good enough for the Democrats to reclaim the County Council. Looking at active voters as of 05/08/2014, we see a ~28K difference between those who voted in these elections :

Yet, the same analysis in the chart below reveals a stunning 36K gap between those who did not vote. The high red peaks form a nasty visualization of those who either did not vote or did not have their votes counted in the 2013 General Election:

Muxing the comparisons, we see a substantial difference in the two elections when comparing those registrants who participated and those who did not:

The magenta spikes above the red 2013 turnout line mean that more did not vote in those precincts than otherwise. And many precincts barely produced more voters than non voters. I discuss the shocking low turnout for many of the usually strong (e.g. in 2012) Democrat precincts here. Some of these precincts had substantial registration in 2013. For me, the low turnout of some of these precincts is suggestive of ballot box theft or other voter suppression. Code for this post is here.

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