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Thursday, May 26, 2016

Charts, Data, Conclusions from the May 24th WA Presidential Primary

This data is current as the evening of 5/24/2016. Data from WA SOS.
1.26M ballots (out of 4.08M registrants) have been counted. About 111K are still out.  -RMF
Click to Enlarge. Tonight's primary portrayed as a three way race.


All Vote Totals as of 5/24/2016:

BCarson  BSanders    DTrump  HClinton   JKasich     TCruz 
 "20,646" "338,283" "403,003" "380,760"  "52,129"  "55,719" 

Democrat vs. Republican Totals:

 338283 + 380760 # Hillary + Bernie
 719,043
 20646 + 403003 + 52129 + 55719 Donald + the other three Rs
 531,497


Carson + Kasich + Cruz:

20646 + 52129 + 55719
128,494


King County Totals and Percentage:

County BCarson BSanders DTrump HClinton JKasich TCruz
 King    2893   102778  64740   143811   13974  8861

337,057 # Total King County Vote
(2893 + 102778 + 64740 + 143811 + 13974 + 8861) / 1,263,197
0.267  # King Co. is 27% of the State's primary vote to date


Here are my first impressions on this WA Primary which was irrelevant for the Democrats because we have already caucused  and was a cakewalk for the presumed Republican nominee, Donald Trump because his competitors have dropped out of the campaign:

  1. Yes, King County holds the largest part of the electorate in WA, 27% tonight.
  2. Yes, if this were a three way race, Donald Trump did just beat both Bernie and Hillary.
  3. No, all those Kasich, Cruz, Carson votes are not switching to Democrats in the Fall. 
  4. No, the Berners and Clintonistas aren't going to play well together for the next five months.
  5. Yes, Donald Trump could win WA in the fall and probably the rest of the nation as well.

You can call conclusion number 5 crazy if you want. But crazy would be denying that if this were a three way race, Trump just thrashed both Bernie and Hillary in Yakima, Spokane, Pierce, Clark and Benton. Those are  all sizable counties in WA state. He also showed strong in almost every other county but King.

More Charts

Clinton wallops Bernie in King County.  Yes, it's true the WA state caucuses were great for Bernie. In the irrelevant primary, she beat him. So what? A Democratic Socialist is still tight on her heels in the final stretch of the campaign. That tells you something....

Despite the King County votes, Sanders would have needed lots of Clinton supporters tonight to beat Trump. Same reality for Hillary shown below.  Because I don't care what type of mushrooms you feed me, the ~128K that voted for Carson,  Kasich, and Cruz aren't voting for any Democrat this fall and that's a fact. Click to Enlarge both Charts.
 

No matter what the Democrats say about one another is next six months, no matter how reticent the DNC is to woo Berners and how paranoid Berners are about the DNC, they all need one another. Because if Trump can show strong here in WA, then in states like Kentucky, Missouri, Arizona, Alabama, Ohio... a split Democratic party will allow the big man to kick some royal blue a**.

Data as of 5/24/2016:

         County BCarson BSanders DTrump HClinton JKasich TCruz
1         Adams      53      192    929      266      67   127
2        Asotin     138      851   2270     1092     186   241
3        Benton     860     5640  14943     5876    1528  2437
4        Chelan     311     2295   5717     2743     651   635
5       Clallam     378     4508   6715     4739     707   798
6         Clark    1523    24825  32947    23669    4162  4529
7      Columbia      33      162    651      178      58    58
8       Cowlitz     417     5214   8727     5666     777   991
9       Douglas     134      770   3047     1052     256   325
10        Ferry      70      393    949      279      61    83
11     Franklin     267     1622   4277     1854     349   893
12     Garfield      17       82    290       86      38    84
13        Grant     452     2019   7778     2310     483   901
14 Grays Harbor     178     2955   4598     3078     309   314
15       Island     360     5612   6930     6240    1394  1460
16    Jefferson     128     4162   2462     3552     410   221
17         King    2893   102778  64740   143811   13974  8861
18       Kitsap     965    15636  16346    15849    2395  2532
19     Kittitas     126     1542   3337     1444     273   291
20    Klickitat     123     1432   2289     1164     208   290
21        Lewis     404     3254   8513     2720     554   930
22      Lincoln      87      304   1471      372     115   205
23        Mason     234     3652   5491     3665     500   693
24     Okanogan     131     1396   2828     1149     174   264
25      Pacific      77     1263   2038     1364     151   184
26 Pend Oreille      98      745   1928      648     110   225
27       Pierce    2444    33932  48071    39215    5893  6848
28     San Juan      44     2088    959     1506     217   124
29       Skagit     324     5699   7444     5662     857   764
30     Skamania      39      706   1078      522      92    94
31    Snohomish    1884    32348  35474    35448    4701  5097
32      Spokane    2214    25031  37357    24600    4299  6032
33      Stevens     276     1698   5075     1483     292   657
34     Thurston     832    17237  16639    16163    2398  2309
35    Wahkiakum      14      274    530      266      46    41
36  Walla Walla     359     2126   4689     2065     563   492
37      Whatcom     866    17669  16533    11734    1532  2960
38      Whitman     195     1458   2071     1275     286   363
39       Yakima     698     4713  14872     5955    1063  1366

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