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Tuesday, November 1, 2016

November 1st: 8 days and 60K ballots remaining?


Whatcom County preferred party vote shares from 10.31.2016 'MatchBack' Report by AVReturnedDate. Click to enlarge.

10,392 ballots were marked as received yesterday. 38,923 'Good' ballots have been cumulatively  received for this election as of last night. The top AVBallotParty category  from the (party preference) Presidential Primary is currently Democratic at 13,551. We are now more than  ~39K  registrants who have sent ballots received with at least 8 counting days (including next weekend) until the election is finished. This turnout projects like the ~104K ballot 2012 election to me.  Among the more interesting features of the vote so far is the fact that ~4500 ballots have been received from active voters who did not vote in any of GE2015, May 24th or August 2nd electionsThose ~4500 had effectively not voted in over a year! This group is part of a much larger group of ~41K that remained active but have not voted in any of GE2015, May 24th, or August 2nd elections~41K is a very big pool in a now ~138K (active) voter database.

Another table below shows that three precinct 'decile'  groups (210-219250-259220-229) have amassed over 1000 AVBallotParty Democrat votes each. As a reminder, the May 2nd Presidential Primary required a preferred party declaration. Those who were active that did not vote  were marked "NO PARTY SELECTED" as thus:

PresPrimary[,.N,AVBallotParty]
       AVBallotParty     N

1:        Republican 23882
2: NO PARTY SELECTED 77680
3:        Democratic 31474

Today, what remains of those voters includes a fourth group ('NA')  that registered or re-activated after the May 2nd Presidential Primary:

CurrentVoterdb[StatusCode == "A",.N,AVBallotParty] # as of 10/19/2016
       AVBallotParty     N
1:        Republican 23514
2: NO PARTY SELECTED 72997
3:        Democratic 30555
4:                NA 11542

These groups can be tracked with each voter's registration ID and form the only true 'micro-target' data ever in the Whatcom County voter database. Some statistical analysis I did proved to me that essentially if voters told us they were Democrats or Republicans, then they voted respectively for a Democrat or Republican presidential candidate.  However, as all of you know, ascertaining 'party shares" still doesn't mean that Berners will be voting now for Secretary Clinton or that casual Democratic voters will continue voting down the ballot for other Democratic candidates or that voters that declared themselves one party or the other won't 'split the ticket' on many issues on their ballot.  More tables and data after the break...

5:23 PM 10/31/2016 -RMF
[1] "Active registrants in Whatcom County voterdb: 138532"
[1] "MatchBacks total all returned status: 40043"
[1] "Unique Registrants in matchbacks 39299"
   AVReturnStatus     N
1:                99247
2:           Good 38923
3:           Void   721
4:     Challenged   277
5:  Undeliverable   122

            AVReturnChallenge      N
 1:                           138891
 2:        No Signature Match    181
 3:             Undeliverable    122
 4:              No Signature     55
 5:   Wrong Voter's Signature     14
 6:                Electronic     10
 7:    Second Ballot Received      7
 8:               ID Required      6
 9:                 Z - Other      2
10:                 No Ballot      1
11: Letter doesn't match env.      1


[1] "Good Ballots by Preferred Party:"
       AVBallotParty     N
1:        Democratic 13551
2: NO PARTY SELECTED 12819
3:        Republican  9941
4:                NA  2612

[1] "By PrecinctID 'Decile' or precinct group e.g. PID_DEC '60' == ( PrecinctID >= 600 & PrecinctID <= 609 ) or precinct range 600:609."
    PID_DEC Democratic NO PARTY SELECTED Republican  NA
 1:      21       1119               853        402 160
 2:      25       1047               796        179 281
 3:      22       1032               787        245 239
 4:      20        963               780        448 159
 5:      24        952               740        314 281
 6:      23        889               752        382 131
 7:      17        862               721        421 144
 8:      13        818               777        535 121
 9:      26        750               630        250 125
10:      16        702               704        471  91
11:      10        675               662        601 151
12:      50        628               597        605  96
13:      14        503               751       1016 120
14:      12        482               603        653  84
15:      15        455               585        578  64
16:      11        451               603        770  96
17:      30        368               336        339  94
18:      60        367               654       1029 113
19:      18        324               321        169  59
20:      40         90               107        127  22
21:      61         68               124        290  17
22:      80         46                75         83  17
23:      70         41                69         83   8 

[1] "Top 40 'Democratic' precincts by AVBallotParty:"
    PrecinctID Democratic NO PARTY SELECTED Republican NA
 1:        250        225               127         38 28
 2:        201        208               121        111 27
 3:        225        167               116         30 67
 4:        208        164               161         44 32
 5:        222        160               128         32 13
 6:        169        159               137         73 18
 7:        210        157               102         16 16
 8:        258        145               106         17 38
 9:        213        144               112         54 14
10:        215        144               107         18  6
11:        244        143               100         28 27
12:        256        143                99         22 19
13:        138        141                98         35 15
14:        216        138                69         23 12
15:        175        137                92         45 19
16:        171        131               109         52 16
17:        302        131               115         98 26
18:        505        131               101         76 17
19:        251        130               104         18 22
20:        239        128               133         59 26
21:        232        127               103         62 19
22:        249        126               118         61 15
23:        134        125               113         65 15
24:        227        125                83         18 25
25:        101        124                90         36 24
26:        240        123               104         47 19
27:        303        121               119        137 35
28:        178        118               113         40 19
29:        182        115                92         75 25
30:        202        115                64         56 13
31:        262        115                85         32 20
32:        103        114                95         78 19
33:        263        114                90         21 29
34:        219        112                76         42 13
35:        266        112               105         46 13
36:        231        111                73         35 29
37:        203        109                95         81 22
38:        234        109                99         67  6
39:        181        108               132         55 19
40:        107        107               115        119 32


[1] "AVReturnedDate"
    AVReturnedDate     N
 1:     10/31/2016 10392
 2:     10/28/2016  6741
 3:     10/27/2016  5028
 4:     10/26/2016  5294
 5:     10/25/2016  6244
 6:     10/24/2016  4589
 7:     10/21/2016    79
 8:     10/20/2016    79
 9:     10/19/2016   158
10:     10/18/2016    65
11:     10/17/2016   100
12:     10/14/2016    16
13:     10/13/2016    77
14:     10/12/2016   460

[1] "AVReturnDate by AVBallotParty"
    AVReturnedDate Democratic NO PARTY SELECTED Republican  NA
 1:     10/31/2016       3042              3849       2782 719
 2:     10/28/2016       2154              2336       1777 474
 3:     10/27/2016       1698              1701       1325 304
 4:     10/26/2016       1829              1607       1480 378
 5:     10/25/2016       2517              1837       1524 366
 6:     10/24/2016       2089              1285        953 262
 7:     10/21/2016         23                31         16   9
 8:     10/20/2016         13                42         12  12
 9:     10/19/2016         61                47         38  12
10:     10/18/2016         13                27          5  20
11:     10/17/2016         19                52          5  24
12:     10/14/2016          3                 9          2   2
13:     10/13/2016         30                27          9  11
14:     10/12/2016        141               177         62  80

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