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Thursday, November 17, 2016

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

GE 2016: The Balkanized 42nd LD and a 40,000 strong Trump Vote in Whatcom County

The red/blue (Clinton - Trump) division of Whatcom County GE 2016.

I spent the weekend going over Whatcom County results.  The data in this post will be good until 5:00 PM Wednesday, 11/16/2016. Observations, final thoughts and a plea for your LD 42 Democratic membership follow. The google sheets data for this page can be found here and here. Note: Spreadsheet data updated to 11/18/2016:

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Remember to Vote!!!

November 1st: 8 days and 60K ballots remaining?


Whatcom County preferred party vote shares from 10.31.2016 'MatchBack' Report by AVReturnedDate. Click to enlarge.

10,392 ballots were marked as received yesterday. 38,923 'Good' ballots have been cumulatively  received for this election as of last night. The top AVBallotParty category  from the (party preference) Presidential Primary is currently Democratic at 13,551. We are now more than  ~39K  registrants who have sent ballots received with at least 8 counting days (including next weekend) until the election is finished. This turnout projects like the ~104K ballot 2012 election to me.  Among the more interesting features of the vote so far is the fact that ~4500 ballots have been received from active voters who did not vote in any of GE2015, May 24th or August 2nd electionsThose ~4500 had effectively not voted in over a year! This group is part of a much larger group of ~41K that remained active but have not voted in any of GE2015, May 24th, or August 2nd elections~41K is a very big pool in a now ~138K (active) voter database.

Another table below shows that three precinct 'decile'  groups (210-219250-259220-229) have amassed over 1000 AVBallotParty Democrat votes each. As a reminder, the May 2nd Presidential Primary required a preferred party declaration. Those who were active that did not vote  were marked "NO PARTY SELECTED" as thus:

PresPrimary[,.N,AVBallotParty]
       AVBallotParty     N

1:        Republican 23882
2: NO PARTY SELECTED 77680
3:        Democratic 31474

Today, what remains of those voters includes a fourth group ('NA')  that registered or re-activated after the May 2nd Presidential Primary:

CurrentVoterdb[StatusCode == "A",.N,AVBallotParty] # as of 10/19/2016
       AVBallotParty     N
1:        Republican 23514
2: NO PARTY SELECTED 72997
3:        Democratic 30555
4:                NA 11542

These groups can be tracked with each voter's registration ID and form the only true 'micro-target' data ever in the Whatcom County voter database. Some statistical analysis I did proved to me that essentially if voters told us they were Democrats or Republicans, then they voted respectively for a Democrat or Republican presidential candidate.  However, as all of you know, ascertaining 'party shares" still doesn't mean that Berners will be voting now for Secretary Clinton or that casual Democratic voters will continue voting down the ballot for other Democratic candidates or that voters that declared themselves one party or the other won't 'split the ticket' on many issues on their ballot.  More tables and data after the break...