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Saturday, December 9, 2017

GE 2016 and GE 2017: Top Counties

The tables below represent WA counties with over 50K good ballots returned for either GE 2016 and GE 2017.  Information for this post comes from the WA SoS Research and United States Census CVAP data. These 14 counties represent 88% of registered voters for the 39 WA counties for GE 2017.  Columns:

County: These are WA Counties > 50K Registered
Registered: Registered at Time of GE (General Election)
Ballots: Ballots Good Returned
TO: PCT TO ('Turn Out') or Ballots Good Returned / Registered
Ballots_CVAP: PCT Ballots Good Returned / 2015 (released 2017) Citizen Voting Age Population
diff: difference between TO PCT and Ballots_CVAP PCT

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Part I Primary Election Post Mortem: Matchbacks and Tips on How to Avoid a Challenged Ballot


The results of August 2017  Primary Election will be certified on Tuesday evening. Monday will be the last chance for 200 plus voters to cure their challenged ballots.   Wednesday, many people will be analyzing the final results with implications for the November 2017 General Election. But as a prelude, I would like to talk about the mechanics of the vote with some public matchback  and return numbers available as of last Friday (08/11/2017). These numbers will be updated in the days to come, but are sure enough for my general points.

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

How to get to the Whatcom Conservation District on Tuesday, March 14th

If you are wondering how you are going to get from Bellingham to the Whatcom Conservation District on Tuesday, March 14th (between 9 AM and 6 PM)  so that you can vote for Whatcom Democrat candidate Heather Christianson, I have some screenshots with text for you below the break. But first some thoughts and advice.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Trump's Digital Campaign and The Effect of Social Media on Our Political Lives.

Below the break is a letter I sent to Democratic Chairman Jaxon Raven's on President Trump's digital campaign. It represents my concern that "Trump's campaign represents the most egregious confluence to date of money, big data, high level computation and neuropsychology". Chairman Ravens responded positively with concern to my letter noting that WA state Democratic party will be attempting to address these and other concerns very soon.  My own analysis is that the use of social media is that single most important driver of political activism in the United States.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Some data on The Women's March: Are we Preaching to the "Liberal" Choir?

Below the break I have charts the top 50 cities ranked on their high estimates (which will change) based on Jeremy Pressman and Erica Chenoweth's latest data. Three charts (click to enlarge) cover cities 1-7, 8-30, 31-50 respectively. See table far below the break for a printed list of high and low crowd estimates of those fifty cities.  This is what strikes me:

"How many of these top 50 cities did Trump win?"

In our current "Hunger Games Electorate', are the "Capitol" cities marching and preaching to the "liberal' choir while rest of the "Districts" troll, laugh, or dismisses our 'liberal' efforts?  If so, how did the march actually help? 

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Part I : How We Save the Democrats

How We Save the Democratic Party:
Moving Right on Social Issues, Moving Left on Economics and Electing Millennials to Power


Part I : How We Save the Democrats

Part II : How We Save the Democrats: Additional Thoughts

How We Save the Democratic Party: 

Moving Right on Social Issues, Moving Left on Economics and Electing Millennials to Power


Part II : How We Save the Democrats: Additional Thoughts

Part I here