Translate

Sunday, August 13, 2017

Part I Primary Election Post Mortem: Matchbacks and Tips on How to Avoid a Challenged Ballot


The results of August 2017  Primary Election will be certified on Tuesday evening. Monday will be the last chance for 200 plus voters to cure their challenged ballots.   Wednesday, many people will be analyzing the final results with implications for the November 2017 General Election. But as a prelude, I would like to talk about the mechanics of the vote with some public matchback  and return numbers available as of last Friday (08/11/2017). These numbers will be updated in the days to come, but are sure enough for my general points.

Primary turnout in "off year" (e.g. no federal, state offices) elections is especially diminished across America as a whole.  Electoral analysts nearly universally consider this a major flaw in our electoral landscape. Solutions are not forthcoming.  Here is how the top nine counties (exclusive of Yakima) voted in WA this August. This list is ranked by turnout percentage of those counties with over 100K participating in the elections and it will change after certification on Tuesday:

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

How to get to the Whatcom Conservation District on Tuesday, March 14th

If you are wondering how you are going to get from Bellingham to the Whatcom Conservation District on Tuesday, March 14th (between 9 AM and 6 PM)  so that you can vote for Whatcom Democrat candidate Heather Christianson, I have some screenshots with text for you below the break. But first some thoughts and advice.

This has always been a small rural election with relatively few people attending. The largest vote in recent history was probably 2015, where Larry Helm beat Joy Monjure with 'in-person' votes on election day. The total ballots were a little over 4000. This year there were over 4800 absentee ballots requested by the Februray 14th deadline alone! Democrats are promoting this election and our candidate Heather Christianson as part of our "contest every seat in the Trump era" imperative.  I am guessing 3  times the number of absentee ballots (15K) will show up at "Hinotes Corner" which is , just north of Hannegan and Pole Rd. But that is just my guess. Normally, I would predict much smaller numbers, but we don't live in "normal" political times. As Democrats, we see the election of Heather Christianson as our first chance to defeat Trumpublicans.  As a reminder, 115K voted in last fall's general election; 65K of those voted for Democrat Patty Murray.

At the end of this post are notes from Dawn Bekenyi of the  WCD detailing the election process. The process will involve the WCD matching you to your voter database information at myvote.wa.gov. Before you come to vote, I recommend logging on to  myvote.wa.gov to make sure:
  • your voter database information is correct
  • your residential and mailing address are current
  • and your voter "Status" is active.
Without all three of those requirements, you will not be able to vote. If you have any questions call, or email the WC Elections office.

Thursday, February 9, 2017

The Whatcom Conservation District Vote

Heather Christianson, Democrat PCO and Candidate for the Whatcom Conservation District.



Update March 20th:

Preliminary Results (as yet not certified) :

 http://whatcomcd.org/board-elections Results indicate a victory for Heather Christianson! Additional results will be returned as the later mail-in ballots are returned. Looks like the first Democrat victory of the year!!! May it be the first of many...March 16 at 2:06pm
Monday, March 20 Unofficial

Candidates

Heather Christianson - 2,872 votes
Roderic Perry - 344 votes
Suzzi (Suzanne) Snydar - 1,561 votes
write ins - 3 votes
disqualified - 56
Update February 14th:

If you missed the Feb 14th 4:00 PM deadline to file for an absentee ballot, you can always make it in person to the Whatcom Conservation District election Tuesday, March 14, 2017 at the District’s office at 6975 Hannegan Road, Lynden. Polls will be open between 9:00 am and 6:00 pm. Please see http://whatcomcd.org/board-elections. The local Democrats may be arranging car pooling. Please check www.WhatcomDemocrats.com . Meanwhile, make sure to vote for Democrat Heather Christianson.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Trump's Digital Campaign and The Effect of Social Media on Our Political Lives.

Below the break is a letter I sent to Democratic Chairman Jaxon Raven's on President Trump's digital campaign. It represents my concern that "Trump's campaign represents the most egregious confluence to date of money, big data, high level computation and neuropsychology". Chairman Ravens responded positively with concern to my letter noting that WA state Democratic party will be attempting to address these and other concerns very soon.  My own analysis is that the use of social media is that single most important driver of political activism in the United States.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Some data on The Women's March: Are we Preaching to the "Liberal" Choir?

Below the break I have charts the top 50 cities ranked on their high estimates (which will change) based on Jeremy Pressman and Erica Chenoweth's latest data. Three charts (click to enlarge) cover cities 1-7, 8-30, 31-50 respectively. See table far below the break for a printed list of high and low crowd estimates of those fifty cities.  This is what strikes me:

"How many of these top 50 cities did Trump win?"

In our current "Hunger Games Electorate', are the "Capitol" cities marching and preaching to the "liberal' choir while rest of the "Districts" troll, laugh, or dismisses our 'liberal' efforts?  If so, how did the march actually help? 

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Part I : How We Save the Democrats

How We Save the Democratic Party:
Moving Right on Social Issues, Moving Left on Economics and Electing Millennials to Power


Part I : How We Save the Democrats

Part II : How We Save the Democrats: Additional Thoughts

How We Save the Democratic Party: 

Moving Right on Social Issues, Moving Left on Economics and Electing Millennials to Power


Part II : How We Save the Democrats: Additional Thoughts

Part I here