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Monday, February 12, 2018

How the BPS 501 Bond Vote played Out (updated with Wednesday night match back and Results)

Both BPS 501 bond and MBS 507 levy have passed.


Bellingham Public School  district 501 (90) 2017 precincts outlined in Black and White. Color scale for City and County are 2016 precinct boundaries colored blue to red representing the  Clinton - Trump difference.  Color and outlines demarcate changes between 2016 and 2017 precincts. Click to enlarge. An online map of precincts from the WC Election office is here.

There were two school district financing measures on your ballot this week. If you live in either the Mt. Baker 507 or Bellingham 501 school districts you could and did vote for:
  • Bellingham School District 501 Proposition 2018-1 General Obligation Bonds - $155,000,000
  • Mt Baker School District 507 Proposition 2018-2 Facilities and Technology Levy
For more information on the BPS 501 Bond itself please see More Information at bottom of this post. The rest of this post contains statistical data simulating the BPS 501 bond vote from 2016 and 2017 election results. Matchback totals and projections have been updated for Wednesday night. Results from last night are below.  Both the Bond and Levy passed.


Wednesday night results:

Number of Precincts103
Number of Registered Voters78,787
Total Ballots Counted24,919
Estimated Ballots Left to Count
Next Ballot Count On02/22/2018 5:00 PM
Last Tabulated02/14/2018 3:13 PM
Voter Turnout31.63%
Certification Date02/23/2018
Export ResultsCSV · XML | Precincts CSV
AVReturnedDate for  February 2016 and 2018 Special Elections as of 02/14/2018.


February Special Election Data (from past and current WC Elections)

Date Precincts Voted Registered TOpct
Date Precincts Voted Registered TOpct
02/12/2012 119 50454  117137 43.07
02/11/2014 49  13571  31063  43.69
02/10/2015 47  10708  31551  33.94
02/09/2016 177 46683  129126 36.15
02/13/2018 103 25561  78787  32.44 # not certified

Votes in Play

From Wednesday's matchbacks, there are 69,837 residents voting in BPS 501 and 78,787 in the election as a whole. BPS 501  2018-1 is a  bondIt needed to win by 60%.  MBS 507 is a levy so only a simple majority was required.  I will look at the BPS 501 vote for the rest of this post:

b18[!duplicated(RegistrationNumber) & PrecinctID %in% B501$PrecinctID,.N]
[1] 69837  # BPS 501 registered voters

b18[!duplicated(RegistrationNumber),.N]
[1] 78787 # BPS 501 + MBS 507 registered voters

Trump + Johnson vs. Clinton + Stein

The 90* BPS 501 precincts total as below for the 2016 GE*:
  • TJ (Trump + Johnson)
  • CS (Clinton + Stein)
a1[,.(TJ_actual=fsum(TJ),CS_actual=fsum(CS))]
   TJ_actual CS_actual
1:     14883     41701


* Statistical notes:

Ferndale's Precinct 509 has 4 BPS 501 voters this election; all south Slater.  I tabulate  precincts without those four votes below. There are seven precincts with partial returns in this election (134,135,163,165,211,225,509). County wide there were 3666 untabulated write in votes for the 2016 GE Presidential election.

If I multiply Wednesday match back ("Good") totals by each precinct percentage margin for TJ or CS, I have the following projected totals:

a1[,.(TJ_projected=as.integer(fsum(N * TJ_pct)),CS_projected=as.integer(fsum(N * CS_pct)))]

   TJ_projected CS_projected
1:         6004        16191

or

16191 / (6004 + 16191)
[1] 0.7294886

Only 2 precincts of these 89 had victories for Trump + Johnson in 2016:

   StateCode TJ CS
1:    WM_157 34 29
2:    WM_165 49 40

Buchanan vs. Robinson 2017

In the much lower turnout of GE 2017, Buchanan (Bu) vs. Robinson (Ro) had these totals for BPS 501 precincts:

a1_[,.(Bu_actual=fsum(Bu),Ro_actual=fsum(Ro))]

   Bu_actual Ro_actual
1:     21142     10643

If I multiply 'Wednesday matchback ("Good") totals by each precinct percentage margin for Bu or Ro, I have the following projected totals:

a1_[,.(Buchanan=as.integer(fsum(N * Buchanan_pct)),Robinson=as.integer(fsum(N * Robinson_pct)))]

   Buchanan Robinson
1:    14617     7578

or

14617/(7578 + 14617)
[1] 0.6585718


9 of the 89 full precincts had victories for Mary Kay Robinson in 2017:

a1_d_[,.(StateCode,diff=(Buchanan - Robinson ),Buchanan,Robinson)][diff < 0,.(StateCode,Buchanan,Robinson)]

   StateCode Buchanan Robinson
1:    WM_135       40       44
2:    WM_157       26       37
3:    WM_159       29       42
4:    WM_162       80       85
5:    WM_165       33       56
6:    WM_168      122      151
7:    WM_170       66       68
8:    WM_173       66       78
9:    WM_211       81       87

Returns

The returns on Wednesday February 14th show almost a 70% victory for BPS 501 bond:

Approved
15,38369.97%
Rejected
6,60130.03%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)21,984
More Information on the BPS 501 Bond:

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