For all of you who are thinking about filing for office in May: WA VRDB and OFM GIS data by County, LD, CD with some snapshots of data are below the break. Click to enlarge the images.
County
LD
Congressional Districts
Fields
[1,] "County"[2,] "POP2017"
[3,] "Active_Voters" #March 2018 VRDB
[4,] "minAge"
[5,] "maxAge"
[6,] "meanAge"
[7,] "stdevAge"
[8,] "female"
[9,] "male"
[10,] "unkn_Gender"
[11,] "uniquePrec"
[12,] "startPrec"
[13,] "endPrec"
mill (Age >= 17 & Age < 33)
genx (Age >= 33 & Age < 56)
boom (Age >= 56 & Age < 73)
warb (Age >= 73 & Age < 92)
pwar (Age >= 92 & Age < 120)}
LV_GE16 LastVoted == "11/08/2016"
LV_GE17 LastVoted == "11/07/2017"
LV_FEB18 LastVoted == "02/13/2018"
LV_PRI17 LastVoted == "08/01/2017"
NoLastVote LastVoted == ""
[24,] "DonaldJ.Trump"
[25,] "HillaryClinton"
[26,] "CountyCode"
Notes on Correlation
The correlation coefficients for voter behavior are positive in VRDB data by county. But the correlation coefficients are all over the place once voters are split up into LDs and CDs. The default organizational and administration of the electorate in WA is 'The County". Once the LDs and CDs are pieced together from parts of each county, voter behavior becomes less subject to positive and predictable correlations. One possible conclusion from this inference is that it may pay dividends for candidates to have a separate strategy for each piece of County you will represent.
LCDs?
There's a number of different ways a national organization could approach dividing up topography during a Legislative/Congressional year like 2018. Perhaps one could consider the "LCD" or the unique grouping creating by (singular) County, Legislative and Congressional Districts. There are 132 of such districts with non-zero active registrants. The top 20 are:
v1[,.N,.(County = CountyCode,LD=LegislativeDistrict,CD=CongressionalDistrict)][
LD != 0 & CD != 0,][order(-N)][1:20]
County LD CD N
1: KI 36 7 110626
2: KI 43 7 101585
3: TH 22 10 97729
4: KI 34 7 97471
5: CR 18 3 96196
6: SP 4 5 95058
7: KP 23 6 91670
8: SP 6 5 90871
9: KI 46 7 85361
10: CR 17 3 85054
11: KI 37 9 85023
12: KI 5 8 84943
13: BE 8 4 84306
14: CR 49 3 80642
15: SP 3 5 76847
16: KI 45 1 76166
17: SN 44 1 76035
18: SN 38 2 75760
19: PI 25 10 75753
20: KI 41 9 71366
The advantage of such groupings could be that they provide for both uniformity of political campaign and representation for sizable voter groups: 33 such "LCDS" contain more the 50K active voters. Only 36 have less than 10K. By contract there are 7229 precincts in WA State; 6758 of which have over 100 active voters. 4033 precincts in WA State have over 500 voters. County, LDs, and CDs are aligned along precinct lines without splitting.
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