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Tuesday, November 20, 2018

One of these All County races was not like the others...

Click to enlarge. The all Democrat Erb vs. Richey Prosecutor's race defied red vs blue precinct patterns.
Analysis currently under construction, but  more charts below. Note that my data is precinct derived from 11/20/2018 and will need to be updated after certification. Also two precincts (269, 271) are 'protected' due to low participation for the Senate and County race, My totals don't reflect those precinct contributions.  Requires wide screen. Click to enlarge the charts.


All Democratic Winners?

The all county races effectively had all Democratic winners. However the Prosecutor's race had two Democrats.  The 'winners' below are: Eric Richey, Cecily Hazelrigg-Hernandez, Carol Frazey, Maria Cantwell. The 'losers' below are James Erb, Tom SeGuine, Mike Peetoom, and Susan Hutchison.

       Prosecutor Appellate County Senate
Winner 52729      53198    57599  64824 
Loser  42752      42523    40198  43691 
Total  95481      95721    97797  108515


The total margins show that the least participatory race among these four all county races was Prosecutor.  Yet the Prosecutor's race had the smallest 'losing margin' and the largest vote share for the losing candidate. Click to enlarge the chart.


Democrat and Republican Voting Profiles

We can construct a table as below which compares Senate and Prosecutor races and calculates Cantwell and Erb percentages:

     PrecinctID Cantwell Erb Hutchison Richey CHpct ERpct
  1:        101      556 293       193    352  74.2  45.4
  2:        102      228 143       251    252  47.6  36.2
  3:        103      361 231       299    325  54.7  41.5
  4:        104      197 148       242    213  44.9  41.0
  5:        105      207 150       161    158  56.2  48.7
 ---                                                     
173:        609      160 148       580    448  21.6  24.8
174:        610      180 203       560    432  24.3  32.0
175:        611      102 121       395    284  20.5  29.9
176:        701      206 164       396    358  34.2  31.4
177:        801      192 150       349    310  35.5  32.6

From that table we create two charts based on these percentages:
  • CHpct =Cantwell/(Cantwell + Hutchison)
  • ERpct =Erb/(Erb + Richey)

Charts:

(1) Precincts where Cantwell_pct - Erb_pct <= 10%. These 61 precincts are more conservative than not. Richey wins them decisively. The Erb:Richey result for these precincts has a similar ratio to Cantwell:Hutchison for these precincts.

Erb   Richey
9706  18906
Cantwell Hutchison
12106    22060

(2) Precincts where Cantwell_pct - Erb_pct  > = 10%. These 114 precincts are more liberal than not. Richey wins them more narrowly. The Erb:Richey  (1:1) ratio in these precincts does not resemble  the Cantwell:Hutchison result for these precincts:

Erb    Richey
33005  33775
Cantwell Hutchison
52718    21631

Click to enlarge the charts:


Prosecutor Falloff

Using the Senate Race as our base, high volume Prosecutor falloff per precinct is concentrated in red  and purple precincts.  However, the falloff extends into many precincts where Maria Cantwell did very well. The trend is very definite: The lower the percent for Cantwell, the more falloff occurs for Prosecutor. 


Precinct Charts

These are comparative precinct charts. The left margin is not 'zeroed'  but set left some to help to make smaller totals more noticeable. Click to enlarge the charts:


Data as of 11/20/2018

PrecinctIDErbRicheyCantwellHutchisonFrazeyPeetoomH.HernandezSeGuine
101293352556193446200209418
102143252228251176260238180
103231325361299295303272285
104148213197242169220213168
105150158207161151169156149
106175356286328240325296245
107244451419407330419369343
108246442393427331381368325
110264354319422264394363263
111207388272430223411372235
1124778569543998646
113178299203367159362346161
114114226148250138224236118
115158374207445167435395154
11676258713347430829267
11792287683896135733269
118165391175489169450411161
119157238229245201223227180
120154359211418166379355160
121133267196287157276251167
122115239150260151229236131
123112228162245129235217131
124128223147256136239238131
125193389222455210395421172
126316483454488390441463340
127252509381498317468454295
129212351289371229343335231
130116236162237132217222126
131225434316417269393423232
132195298292276217282286208
133343175439116386117136347
134326307463254419227261369
135223287371204313188198305
136364417558287511274317454
137362197473121416123131407
138434221542148504135135493
13940200332772726924829
140178543157706137656611147
141162403208502191457442180
142204316297286243290282252
143196226339147266144155267
14412645511659811056153397
145198457265511230452444200
146219426242534218492471212
147206318273353232342334212
148223321275366245312335229
149149273182324156302288153
150225390280462257401407237
151243385327408301375364281
152225339287371253321325240
153222341290360258314321220
154166208207227181213214170
155119251183264145253239153
15682155116159108133126108
157921071101309211598106
158106163143157133142152119
159731071148696849682
160276384496242439221256386
161189216311155272144172233
162210300341253303207250252
163267276383222367195208338
164751251211071109710892
165119171163179159155168130
166317313418316374276296359
1674342505447404443
168273414427372392321376319
169434416658285633240307541
170151250264168259128177196
171287364537212499174216444
172167208278163242140157216
173192265342184302162223238
174255319458189414173183390
175325364586209500208227471
176198280391181352142206294
177191231354146327131165283
178330315539214493170195461
1794582728466717363
180270251419167391127184329
181317439560342487297351422
182292451529401459355391427
183412912136128
201439521696377643313396558
202226283419173360169196325
203336353517275444261290400
204173261332157293143153289
205206232336141285131150261
206368416668194572196228551
207227223367105317112134292
208547401830195728211227701
209325283536126479124162423
21052130976510572690144663
211280410497288446240288403
212231284397207342194228305
213407362611215543209241497
2143452165097947583103439
215445286654118602106118569
21645729670288623101116599
217176261297193260174205216
218221291404168358155181344
219316304490176440180208402
220283340456236414200233388
221231337381262344229270297
222474359756133692127164624
223317165457474205060399
224159145289352623640254
225553428914127797133167780
226362236572475096782494
227387306626112567112140537
228449245669775917881582
229387358648152546179188525
230283234461104378133129370
231395398690180591198205580
232330324507236472203249411
233322314508170460158189419
234291330455229425193222384
235185203290140273113152233
237316341522221454201234401
238206251303194279170198247
239348348559220516190239456
240317340528184499146203419
241270251403172374159189335
242212189353102318102121276
243311293504189488161193415
24443226664611458793162531
2452933406296550910294524
246386253622615417396518
247421300712716288387618
248331328572160509166192483
249376365593216544176238478
250497307725145666133187593
25136921450712448499143431
252132133265252194341221
253488422871118723168150734
254303242436149412116168342
25525120340210135494122318
25641323761010956684126523
257321261564505046466499
258533252781506887994678
25919819833512028399150227
260242233350170332145179288
26127318638710535097147300
2623642065278747294129429
26343525665487578107113556
264302249449178417145210341
265235211354164315139162277
266333277503168465143197403
2681519171810221914
2693946NANANANA2554
27122NANANANA22
301231412354369295364362275
302363426521362471325353440
303271363394394357329377287
3048110312388103838789
401117205158232138204205127
402172321240333208322319209
501240442372417352344347322
502170351301283262276284242
503222403336375309347338286
504241394372361330329333303
505205256321196271184202245
506239391407301325296281328
507190312285298256248275234
508209419367359306336339299
509170298231316214267285177
601113270145318135271283111
602153366182454156411404149
603128353147417173343344142
604243595256776262674680237
605179505230644210587578188
606152380170475154426430131
607132313122427118394377114
608155352188415174379359167
609148448160580145505491134
610203432180560181504498167
6111212841023959936235880
701164358206396203341322197
801150310192349163344307178

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