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Saturday, November 2, 2019

11.04.2019 Whatcom County lca Predictions

Updated with 11/04/2019 state matchbacks. -RMF


For Whatcom County from latent class modeling from the County's 11.04.2019 (Friday) state matchback. Don't click on that 11/04 state matchback link unless you have big data skills. Excel won't cut it at this volume of ballots. The first columns of D and R are predicted potential. The second row is predicted from BallotStatus == "Accepted". However, I am missing 637 (BallotStatus == "Accepted") predictions from my model. These registrants added after October 1, 2019.  Statewide, roughly 22K net additions have been added to the VRDB since October 1st. A final state matchback will be issued tonight very close to the expected Election Day returns. These predictions will be updated tonight. No warranty for any prediction is expressed or implied for these predictions. Please use at your own risk.


    District     D     R     D     R
1: District_1 22223  3962  6207  1128
2: District_2 24178  3637  6392  1445
3: District_3 17752 11259  4849  3684
4: District_4 13906 14517  3287  5550
5: District_5 14991 15407  4490  4295
6:      LD_40 36651  7343 10149  2550
7:      LD_42 56399 41439 15076 13552

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