Matchback 10.25.2019: State and local counties

Summary:

Exactly 334,813 have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in last night's (10/25/2019) statewide matchback. Another 5,025 have been rejected or 'challenged'.  The WA SoS counts this as 339,918 'Ballots Received' for a turnout of 7.6%.  However,  this total is  ~27% of the approximately 1.5M votes received for each of the 2015 and 2017  ('off year') general elections.  

The current vote is dominated by those born in the 1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79). These two decades have a combined 165,274 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 24% of that (165,274) total with 39,413 ballots accepted.  The "youth" or millennial vote in WA has yet to compete with the boomer votes.

Men are currently out voting women in all but two counties and this is remarkable given the current political environment and the fact that  ~170K more women are registered than men statewide. I am reminded that I noticed this trend in July 2018. For the state as a whole:

   BallotStatus Female   Male
1:     Accepted 154087 164601 # Ready for Tabulation
2:     Received   7442   7446 # In the chute
3:     Rejected   2342   2628 # Challenged or Rejected

For our neck of woods: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan:

   BallotStatus Female Male
1:     Accepted   9518 9788
2:     Rejected     82  107

Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing:


# Demographic Tables

# [All State: 11.25.2019] 
sMB102519[,.N,.(BallotStatus)]
   BallotStatus      N
1:     Accepted 319880
2:     Received  14933
3:     Rejected   5025

VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N]
[1] 4479369
# All status active as of October 1 (4.47M)
(319880+14933)/VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N] * 100
# Percentage Accepted and Received as of 10.25.2019
[1] 7.47
See also https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/research/ballot-return-statistics.aspx

#[All State: Challenge Reason]
sMB102519[BallotStatus == "Rejected",.N,]
[1] 5025

sMB102519[,.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
              ChallengeReason      N
 1:                           334822
 2:  Signature Does Not Match   1565
 3:                  Unsigned   1485
 4:             Undeliverable   1151
 5:                    Review    255
 6:                      HOLD    198
 7:          Other than Voter    105
 8:       Ballot Style Change     67
 9:          Canvassing Board     32
10:                  Deceased     29
11:      No Signature on File     27
12:   Advanced Special Ballot     25
13:               ID Required     21
14:              Marked Moved     17
15:                   Invalid      8
16:            Empty Envelope      7
17:                      Hold      5
18:         Voter Name Change      5
19:         Power of Attorney      4
20: Witness Signature Missing      4
21:               Id Required      3
22:          Other Than Voter      3
              ChallengeReason      N

sMB102519[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
            ChallengeReason     N
1:                          12372
2: Signature Does Not Match    33
3:                 Unsigned    30
4:         Other than Voter    14
5:      Ballot Style Change     8
6:                     HOLD     7
7:                 Deceased     1
8:              ID Required     1

# [Whatcom County]
sMB102519[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(BallotStatus)]

   BallotStatus     N
1:     Accepted 12372
2:     Rejected    94

sMB102519[,.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]

   BallotStatus 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1:     Accepted     2   125  5576 31287 80312 84962 47783 30420 24663 13220  1530
2:     Received     0     4   215  1382  3648  3929  2253  1575  1184   658    85
3:     Rejected     0     1   102   334   610   930   761   687   758   739   103

sMB102519[Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))

   BallotStatus Female   Male
1:     Accepted 154087 164601
2:     Received   7442   7446
3:     Rejected   2342   2628

sMB102519[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]

   BallotStatus 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1:     Accepted    12   389  2087  5508  5200  2408  1597  1306   735    91
2:     Rejected     0     6    18    32    39    32    17    23    20     3

 sMB102519[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),][
 Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
 setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender,   value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
   BallotStatus Female Male
1:     Accepted   9518 9788
2:     Rejected     82  107

sMB102519[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
+ .N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)]

     County Gender    N
1: San Juan      M  574
2: San Juan      F  575
3:   Skagit      M 3021
4:   Skagit      F 2876
5:  Whatcom      M 6300
6:  Whatcom      F 6149



sMB102519[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)][,
dcast(.SD, County ~ Gender,value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)][,
.(County,Male=M,Female=F)][,
.SD[,.(Pct.Male=round(Male/(Male+Female),3) * 100)],
.(County,Male,Female)]

          County  Male Female Pct.Male
 1:        Adams   331    326     50.4
 2:       Asotin   856    824     51.0
 3:       Benton  4256   3921     52.0
 4:       Chelan  2492   2415     50.8
 5:      Clallam  2212   2156     50.6
 6:        Clark  8661   8033     51.9
 7:     Columbia   126    125     50.2
 8:      Cowlitz  1641   1517     52.0
 9:      Douglas  1038   1007     50.8
10:        Ferry   370    334     52.6
11:     Franklin  1205   1134     51.5
12:     Garfield    53     51     51.0
13:        Grant  2068   1878     52.4
14: Grays Harbor  2390   2526     48.6
15:       Island  2894   2734     51.4
16:    Jefferson  1629   1568     51.0
17:         King 49732  45488     52.2
18:       Kitsap  8115   7511     51.9
19:     Kittitas  1342   1196     52.9
20:    Klickitat   448    439     50.5
21:        Lewis  2371   2162     52.3
22:      Lincoln   593    550     51.9
23:        Mason  2984   2718     52.3
24:     Okanogan  1100   1018     51.9
25:      Pacific   528    468     53.0
26: Pend Oreille   601    490     55.1
27:       Pierce 16733  15453     52.0
28:     San Juan   574    575     50.0
29:       Skagit  3021   2876     51.2
30:     Skamania    35     34     50.7
31:    Snohomish 12375  11406     52.0
32:      Spokane 18310  18308     50.0
33:      Stevens  1808   1710     51.4
34:     Thurston  8562   8212     51.0
35:    Wahkiakum   113    105     51.8
36:  Walla Walla  1239   1198     50.8
37:      Whatcom  6300   6149     50.6
38:      Whitman   818    769     51.5
39:       Yakima  4751   4487     51.4
          County  Male Female Pct.Male

# Registered as of October 1 
VR[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),.N,.(CountyCode,Gender)][order(CountyCode,-Gender)]

   CountyCode Gender     N
1:         SJ      M  6481
2:         SJ      F  7164
3:         SK      M 36785
4:         SK      F 40808
5:         WM      M 69437
6:         WM      F 75676

# October 1st VRDB WA ('whole enchilada')
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Gender)]
   Gender       N
1:      M 2145204
2:      F 2313683
3:      U   14549
4:           5806
5:      O     127

# Registered as of October 1
# Just our neck of woods: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan
VR[StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),.N,.(Gender)]
   Gender      N
1:      M 112703
2:      F 123648
3:           425
4:      U     52
5:      O     14