Summary:
Exactly 438,734 have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in last night's (10/28/2019) statewide matchback. Another 6,475 have been rejected or 'challenged'. The WA SoS total is 445,336
'Ballots Received' for a turnout of 9.9%. This statewide total is ~30% of the approximately 1.5M votes received for each of the 2015 and 2017 ('off year') general elections.
The current vote is dominated by those born in the 1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79). These two decades have a combined 215,673 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 24% of that (215,673) total with 52,459 ballots accepted. That "youth" or millennial vote in WA still has not yet to compete with the pre-war and boomer votes in this general election.
Men are currently out voting women in all but eight counties and this is remarkable given the current political environment and the fact that ~170K more women are registered than men statewide. I am reminded that I noticed this trend in July 2018. For the state as a whole:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 205148 213680 # Ready for tabulation
2: Received 9292 8914 # In the chute
3: Rejected 3006 3401 # Challenged or Rejected
For our neck of woods (Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan), female and male voters are essentially even the first time in these matchbacks:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 12853 12793
2: Rejected 110 134
Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing:
# [All State: 11.28.2019]
sMB102819[,.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 420460
2: Received 18274
3: Rejected 6475
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N]
[1] 4479369 # All status active as of October 1 (4.47M)
# percentage Accepted and Received as of 10.28.2019
(420460+18274)/VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N] * 100
[1] 9.794549
# percentage Accepted,Received,Rejected as of 10.28.2019
(420460+18274+6475)/VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N] * 100
[1] 9.939101
#[All State: Challenge Reason]
sMB102819[BallotStatus == "Rejected",.N]
[1] 6475
ChallengeReason N
1: 438742
2: Signature Does Not Match 2115
3: Unsigned 1930
4: Undeliverable 1181
5: Review 447
6: HOLD 301
7: Other than Voter 158
8: Ballot Style Change 89
9: Deceased 42
10: Marked Moved 30
11: No Signature on File 30
12: Canvassing Board 30
13: ID Required 26
14: Advanced Special Ballot 25
15: Voter Name Change 15
16: Empty Envelope 13
17: Hold 10
18: Other Than Voter 7
19: Invalid 5
20: Power of Attorney 5
21: Witness Signature Missing 4
22: Id Required 3
23: Power Of Attorney 1
ChallengeReason N
sMB102819[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 16674
2: Signature Does Not Match 47
3: Unsigned 39
4: Other than Voter 15
5: Ballot Style Change 11
6: HOLD 5
7: Deceased 1
8: ID Required 1
# [Whatcom County]
sMB102819[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 16674
2: Rejected 119
sMB102819[,.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 2 169 7478 41182 104531 111142 63209 40288 32681 17675 2103
2: Received 0 4 221 1305 3762 4547 3242 2242 1708 1091 152
3: Rejected 0 3 136 424 823 1203 963 854 978 946 145
sMB102819[Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
+ setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
+ c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 205148 213680
2: Received 9292 8914
3: Rejected 3006 3401
sMB102819[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
+ .N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy_hm(DOB))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
+ dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 17 527 2729 7141 6874 3266 2167 1793 1037 144
2: Rejected 0 9 25 45 45 40 23 32 25 3
sMB102819[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),][
Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 12853 12793
2: Rejected 110 134
sMB102819[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
+ .N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)]
County Gender N
1: San Juan M 574
2: San Juan F 575
3: Skagit M 4006
4: Skagit F 3976
5: Whatcom M 8347
6: Whatcom F 8412
VR[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),
+ .N,.(CountyCode,Gender)][order(CountyCode,-Gender)]
CountyCode Gender N
1: SJ M 6481
2: SJ F 7164
3: SK M 36785
4: SK F 40808
5: WM M 69437
6: WM F 75676
# October 1st VRDB WA ('whole enchilada')
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: M 2145204
2: F 2313683
3: 5806
4: U 14549
5: O 127
# Just our neck of woods: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan
VR[StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: F 123648
2: M 112703
3: 425
4: U 52
5: O 14
sMB102819[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)][,
dcast(.SD, County ~ Gender,value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)][,
.(County,Male=M,Female=F)][,
.SD[,.(Pct.Male=round(Male/(Male+Female),3) * 100)],
.(County,Male,Female)]
# 'x' marks Counties where Females outvote Males:
County Male Female Pct.Male
1: Adams 399 404 49.7 x
2: Asotin 1122 1110 50.3
3: Benton 5655 5350 51.4
4: Chelan 2800 2732 50.6
5: Clallam 3269 3354 49.4 x
6: Clark 12042 11457 51.2
7: Columbia 227 220 50.8
8: Cowlitz 2957 2807 51.3
9: Douglas 1391 1405 49.7 x
10: Ferry 463 411 53.0
11: Franklin 1569 1505 51.0
12: Garfield 100 94 51.5
13: Grant 2713 2551 51.5
14: Grays Harbor 3322 3508 48.6 x
15: Island 3914 3745 51.1
16: Jefferson 1984 2000 49.8 x
17: King 64250 60258 51.6
18: Kitsap 10706 10252 51.1
19: Kittitas 1773 1633 52.1
20: Klickitat 711 693 50.6
21: Lewis 2992 2764 52.0
22: Lincoln 757 730 50.9
23: Mason 3596 3353 51.7
24: Okanogan 1451 1375 51.3
25: Pacific 828 790 51.2
26: Pend Oreille 741 641 53.6
27: Pierce 21592 20571 51.2
28: San Juan 574 575 50.0 x
29: Skagit 4006 3976 50.2
30: Skamania 246 227 52.0
31: Snohomish 15288 14412 51.5
32: Spokane 22479 22926 49.5 x
33: Stevens 2284 2167 51.3
34: Thurston 10684 10553 50.3
35: Wahkiakum 198 186 51.6
36: Walla Walla 1743 1717 50.4
37: Whatcom 8347 8412 49.8 x
38: Whitman 1156 1113 50.9
39: Yakima 5666 5469 50.9
County Male Female Pct.Male
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