Summary:
Exactly 2,011,128 ballots have been 'Accepted' or 'Received' in last night's (11/08/2019) statewide matchback. Another 31,483 have been rejected or 'challenged'. As of 11/08/2019 8:15 PM last night, Election Results WA has 1,877,878 tabulated (counted) with 133,459 ballots on hand to be processed (e.g. tabulated). Understanding ballot processing this time of year is complicated and Same Day Registration has increased that complexity. [Link to blog post coming here]. Although the previous matchbacks have been dominated by those born in 1940s or 1950s (now ages 60 - 79), younger generations are catching up in these later returns and it would be hard not to assume that has made all the difference for Democratic candidates in tight races throughout the state but especially in King and Whatcom Counties :
Decade Age Registered Voted Turnout
1: 1900s 110s 27 5 18.5
2: 1910s 100s 1711 537 31.4
3: 1920s 90s 44030 22336 50.7
4: 1930s 80s 184015 122333 66.5
5: 1940s 70s 492174 347617 70.6
6: 1950s 60s 765293 472322 61.7
7: 1960s 50s 756929 366183 48.4
8: 1970s 40s 706611 274007 38.8
9: 1980s 30s 784614 234508 29.9
10: 1990s 20s 672919 136223 20.2
11: 2000s 10s 71046 19020 26.8
Those born in 1940s or 1950s decades have a combined 819,939 ballots accepted. By comparison, those born 1980 or afterwards (ages 18 - 39) have a combined 46% of that (819,939) total with 389,751 ballots accepted. That "youth" or millennial vote in WA weighed in at last. If you have followed these matchbacks reports you know this was simply not the case in early voting. The youth vote was not strong enough to stop i976, but they prevented a Republican rout in Seattle and Whatcom. GenXrs, those born in the 60s and 70s are contributing 640,190 votes. Please see 'Age by Status' below. To see my updated and ongoing piece on WWU precinct turnout, see here. Women are currently out voting men in all but 2 small counties. The later balloting is now skewing heavily female. This is another sign that close races will fall to more liberal candidates. For the state as a whole:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 1030708 955802 # Ready for tabulation or tabulated
2: Received 8258 7740 # In the chute
3: Rejected 15011 16151 # Challenged or Rejected
For our neck of woods (Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan), accepted female votes are ahead of male votes significantly now:
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 66253 59434
2: Received 58 41
3: Rejected 628 749
Tables made from rdata.table code with output follow the break. Widescreen is best for viewing especially on a phone.
sMB110819[,.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 1995091
2: Rejected 31483
3: Received 16037
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N]
[1] 4479369
# All status active as of October 1 (4.47M)
# Percentage Accepted and Received as of 11.08.2019
(1995091+16037)/VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N] * 100
[1] 44.89757
# See also https://results.vote.wa.gov/results/20191105/Turnout.html
#[All State: Challenge Reason]
sMB110819[BallotStatus == "Rejected",.N]
[1] 31483
sMB110819[,.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 2011135
2: Signature Does Not Match 12305
3: Too Late 7042
4: Unsigned 5455
5: Review 1793
6: Undeliverable 1407
7: HOLD 1399
8: Other than Voter 753
9: Ballot Style Change 395
10: Other Than Voter 189
11: No Signature on File 157
12: ID Required 128
13: Marked Moved 83
14: Canvassing Board 76
15: Deceased 66
16: Hold 58
17: Voter Name Change 43
18: Witness Signature Missing 38
19: Empty Envelope 29
20: Power of Attorney 25
21: Id Required 24
22: Invalid 6
23: Advanced Special Ballot 2
24: No Signature On File 2
25: Power Of Attorney 1
ChallengeReason N
# [Whatcom County]
sMB110819[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
ChallengeReason N
1: 81763
2: Signature Does Not Match 394
3: Unsigned 140
4: Other than Voter 71
5: Ballot Style Change 46
6: HOLD 27
7: ID Required 8
8: Review 5
9: Empty Envelope 2
10: Deceased 1
sMB110819[County == "Whatcom",.N,.(BallotStatus)]
BallotStatus N
1: Accepted 81663
2: Rejected 694
3: Received 100
# All State
# VR[,Age:=as.numeric(year(ymd_hms(Sys.time()))) - year(ymd(Birthdate))]
sMB110819[,.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy(gsub(" 12:00:00 AM","",DOB)))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
Age By Status
BallotStatus 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 5 537 22336 122333 347617 472322 366183 274007 234508 136223 19020
2: Received 0 1 76 525 2122 3719 3453 2556 2003 1323 259
3: Rejected 1 11 283 1028 2476 4611 5102 5249 5733 5892 1097
sMB = sMB110819[,.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy(gsub(" 12:00:00 AM","",DOB)))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
cbind(setnames(VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Decade=Age%/%10)][order(-Decade)],
c("Age","Registered"))[],
setnames(as.data.table(t(sMB),keep.rownames=TRUE)[2:12,1:2],
c("Decade","Voted"))[])[,
.(Decade,Age=paste0(Age,"0s"),Registered,Voted)][,
.SD[,.(Turnout=round(as.numeric(Voted)/as.numeric(Registered),3) * 100)], .(Decade,Age,Registered,Voted)]
Decade Age Registered Voted Turnout
1: 1900s 110s 27 5 18.5
2: 1910s 100s 1711 537 31.4
3: 1920s 90s 44030 22336 50.7
4: 1930s 80s 184015 122333 66.5
5: 1940s 70s 492174 347617 70.6
6: 1950s 60s 765293 472322 61.7
7: 1960s 50s 756929 366183 48.4
8: 1970s 40s 706611 274007 38.8
9: 1980s 30s 784614 234508 29.9
10: 1990s 20s 672919 136223 20.2
11: 2000s 10s 71046 19020 26.8
sMB110819[Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 1030708 955802
2: Received 8258 7740
3: Rejected 15011 16151
sMB110819[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(Decade=paste0(year(mdy(gsub(" 12:00:00 AM","",DOB)))%/%10,"0s"),BallotStatus)][,
dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Decade, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)]
BallotStatus 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1: Accepted 39 1533 8459 24700 30247 20191 15796 13854 9707 1562
2: Received 0 0 3 14 28 16 10 6 17 6
3: Rejected 1 14 62 149 228 193 176 214 299 57
sMB110819[County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),][
Gender == "M" | Gender == "F",.N,.(Gender,BallotStatus)][,
setnames(dcast(.SD, BallotStatus ~ Gender, value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum),
c("BallotStatus","Female","Male"))]
BallotStatus Female Male
1: Accepted 66253 59434
2: Received 58 41
3: Rejected 628 749
sMB110819[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & County %in% c("Whatcom","Skagit","San Juan"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)]
County Gender N
1: San Juan M 3729
2: San Juan F 4181
3: Skagit M 17663
4: Skagit F 19440
5: Whatcom M 38832
6: Whatcom F 43318
VR[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F") & StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),
.N,.(CountyCode,Gender)][order(CountyCode,-Gender)]
CountyCode Gender N
1: SJ M 6481
2: SJ F 7164
3: SK M 36785
4: SK F 40808
5: WM M 69437
6: WM F 75676
# October 1st VRDB WA ('whole enchilada')
VR[StatusCode == "Active",.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: M 2145204
2: F 2313683
3: 5806
4: U 14549
5: O 127
# Just our neck of woods: Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan
VR[StatusCode == "Active" & CountyCode %in% c("WM","SK","SJ"),.N,.(Gender)]
Gender N
1: M 112703
2: F 123648
3: 425
4: U 52
5: O 14
sMB110819[(Gender == "M" | Gender == "F"),
.N,.(County,Gender)][order(County,-Gender)][,
dcast(.SD, County ~ Gender,value.var="N",fun.aggregate=fsum)][,
.(County,Male=M,Female=F)][,
.SD[,.(Pct.Male=round(Male/(Male+Female),3) * 100)],
.(County,Male,Female)]
# y= male outvotes female
County Male Female Pct.Male
1: Adams 1420 1567 47.5
2: Asotin 3265 3448 48.6
3: Benton 22428 23255 49.1
4: Chelan 11009 11768 48.3
5: Clallam 13176 14766 47.2
6: Clark 51546 55552 48.1
7: Columbia 745 815 47.8
8: Cowlitz 14391 15415 48.3
9: Douglas 5071 5403 48.4
10: Ferry 1290 1261 50.6 y
11: Franklin 6241 6493 49.0
12: Garfield 533 542 49.6
13: Grant 8666 8902 49.3
14: Grays Harbor 10390 11290 47.9
15: Island 14477 15986 47.5
16: Jefferson 7007 7814 47.3
17: King 313762 334140 48.4
18: Kitsap 37444 39456 48.7
19: Kittitas 6695 6961 49.0
20: Klickitat 3331 3396 49.5
21: Lewis 11345 11758 49.1
22: Lincoln 2105 2138 49.6
23: Mason 9669 9868 49.5
24: Okanogan 5628 5939 48.7
25: Pacific 3686 3930 48.4
26: Pend Oreille 2301 2311 49.9
27: Pierce 98959 107440 47.9
28: San Juan 3729 4181 47.1
29: Skagit 17663 19440 47.6
30: Skamania 1851 1837 50.2 y
31: Snohomish 97970 104788 48.3
32: Spokane 73871 82274 47.3
33: Stevens 7475 7707 49.2
34: Thurston 38793 43457 47.2
35: Wahkiakum 769 808 48.8
36: Walla Walla 7328 8106 47.5
37: Whatcom 38832 43318 47.3
38: Whitman 5192 5417 48.9
39: Yakima 19640 21030 48.3
County Male Female Pct.Male
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