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Friday, December 5, 2014

A Final MatchBack analysis for General Election 2014

16,845 42nd LD Precinct Votes "left on the table" from those precincts with over 300 'not voting'. 32K voters registered in the 42nd LD did not participate.  Click on chart too enlarge.
Statistics below paint a dismal picture of participation in the 2014 General Election. 48,205 registered Whatcom County voters did not participate in the 2014 General Election including 31,938 from the LD 42nd where this year's critical races were held.  Arguably, many of the top 30 'not voting'  precincts shown above would have voted for Democrats. R Code here.
The matchback totals include 1102 duplicates registration numbers which are caused by voters attempting to "cure" their undeliverable or challenged ballots. Those first tries become void unless "cured" before certification. Undeliverable ("return to sender") is the largest category of ballot loss, follow by "Too Late" and "No signature match". But no challenge or ballot delivery issue creates as much voter loss as those that simply don't cast their ballots:

length(unique(duplicated$RegistrationNumber))
[1] 1102


count(MB_2014_Consolidated_status,"AVReturnStatus")
  AVReturnStatus  freq
1     Not Voted   48205
2     Challenged   695
3           Good 76089
4  Undeliverable  2457
5           Void   992

count(MB_2014_Consolidated_status,"AVReturnChallenge")
           AVReturnChallenge   freq
1                            125286
2                 Electronic      8
3                ID Required      9
4  Letter doesn't match env.     28
5                  No Ballot      5
6               No Signature     55
7         No Signature Match    263
8          Power of Attorney      1
9     Second Ballot Received     21
10                  Too Late    293
11             Undeliverable   2457
12   Wrong Voter's Signature     10
13              Z - Deceased      1
14                 Z - Other      1

Among those that did cast their ballots, these were the top 20 precincts:

arrange(data.frame(with(MB_2014_Consolidated_Good,(table(PrecinctID)))),desc(Freq))
    PrecinctID Freq
1          601  743
2          201  730
3          140  729
4          208  715
5          169  714
6          222  698
7          250  672
8          127  665
9          213  662
10         134  653
11         145  648
12         144  647
13         146  644
14         609  643
15         610  637
16         126  634
17         181  629
18         168  624
19         182  618
20         151  616
...

These precincts had the greatest number of votes not cast:

 arrange(subset(Test,PrecinctID %in% ld42$precincts42),desc(NoVote))


PrecinctID No Vote Challenged Good Undeliverable Void Undel_Void PCT_Good PCT_Undel_Void
133 606 7 361 14 51 65 35.0 1.4
137 568 15 366 7 50 57 36.9 0.7
229 528 4 488 23 7 30 46.7 2.2
201 521 4 730 18 7 25 57.2 1.4
206 491 6 515 22 13 35 49.5 2.1
208 469 4 715 26 8 34 58.7 2.1
108 449 5 605 3 7 10 56.9 0.3
225 448 7 482 33 12 45 49.4 3.4
148 436 2 487 11 3 14 52.0 1.2
101 421 7 476 9 4 13 52.3 1.0
302 416 7 608 14 7 21 58.2 1.3
505 414 1 575 16 7 23 56.8 1.6
211 398 6 481 7 5 12 54.0 0.8
142 395 3 373 11 11 22 47.2 1.4
220 388 4 383 20 6 26 48.1 2.5
140 385 6 729 3 4 7 65.0 0.3
508 383 4 518 7 8 15 56.6 0.8
136 373 3 459 7 15 22 53.7 0.8
166 370 4 562 7 3 10 59.7 0.7
135 369 6 458 5 7 12 54.6 0.6
506 368 0 486 8 3 11 56.2 0.9
134 362 4 653 4 9 13 63.5 0.4
126 355 2 634 9 9 18 63.0 0.9
146 354 7 644 3 9 12 63.8 0.3
203 350 1 520 15 9 24 58.2 1.7
106 348 3 422 5 0 5 54.5 0.6
204 344 1 225 13 4 17 38.4 2.2
301 343 9 600 14 10 24 62.0 1.4
219 337 5 444 8 7 15 55.8 1.0
233 337 2 489 11 7 18 57.9 1.3

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