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Saturday, August 8, 2015

Predicting Crime, Day of Rembrance, Bellingham Racial Justice Commission

Crime and justice issues on board for Sunday and Monday:

There will be a day of remembrance for Mike Brown tomorrow (Sunday) at 5:30 in Cornwall Park. This was also announced in the Herald.

On August 10th, Monday the Bellingham Police will have a hearing on the use of Bair Analytics predictive software. There will be a rally created by the Bellingham Racial Justice Commmission beforehand.

I've created some graphs and tables from 89 days of data from COB summaries. Predictive software uses existing data to predict where crime will happen. There has been some lively discussion about the use of predictive software and racial profiling. Here are the articles I found most interesting in researching predictive policing:


Below is a three month look at crime high points and locations in Bellingham. There were 5533 Offense summaries for those 89 days. I created some tables and charts to summarize that volume. Code for this post is here. Click on charts to enlarge. 






Top 20 for Offense and Location between 05.10 - 08.07 2015 (89 days)

                         Offense   n
1                          THEFT 430
2        SUSPICIOUS CIRCUMSTANCE 301
3                 WARRANT ARREST 292
4          TROUBLE WITH A PERSON 288
5  DOMESTIC DISPUTE (NO ASSAULT) 239
6     PROPERTY - FOUND/RECOVERED 223
7                  VEHICLE PROWL 192
8                ACCIDENT - AUTO 191
9                  WELFARE CHECK 168
10            MALICIOUS MISCHIEF 166
11            INFORMATION REPORT 165
12      TRAFFIC STOP (Violation) 138
13          LIQUOR LAW VIOLATION 131
14                MENTAL PROBLEM 122
15                   SHOPLIFTING 104
16                      TRESPASS 104
17                      BURGLARY  97
18          ACCIDENT - HIT & RUN  95
19             IMPOUND - PRIVATE  88
20                    CIVIL CASE  86

                       Location   n
1            500 BLK W HOLLY ST 108
2        000 BLK BELLIS FAIR PK  84
3              500 BLK GRAND AV  84
4          4400 BLK MERIDIAN ST  76
5              300 BLK GRAND AV  62
6         200 BLK E MAGNOLIA ST  58
7            100 BLK E HOLLY ST  57
8         2900 BLK SQUALICUM PK  56
9          1000 BLK E SUNSET DR  51
10     300 BLK E BELLIS FAIR PK  49
11           800 BLK LAKEWAY DR  47
12         4200 BLK MERIDIAN ST  41
13         1100 BLK RAILROAD AV  40
14         1200 BLK E SUNSET DR  40
15             000 BLK ZUNKNOWN  39
16            1800 BLK TEXAS ST  39
17           3400 BLK WOBURN ST  37
18 000 BLK ZOUTSIDE CITY LIMITS  36
19          200 BLK N SAMISH WY  36
20      2700 BLK W MAPLEWOOD AV  35

From a subset top 20 offenses: Locations from Offenses with greater than 5 incidents at that location.

                       Location  n                       Offense
1              300 BLK GRAND AV 48                WARRANT ARREST
2            500 BLK W HOLLY ST 38          LIQUOR LAW VIOLATION
3        000 BLK BELLIS FAIR PK 35                         THEFT
4         200 BLK E MAGNOLIA ST 31    PROPERTY - FOUND/RECOVERED
5          4400 BLK MERIDIAN ST 29                         THEFT
6            500 BLK W HOLLY ST 28                      TRESPASS
7          1100 BLK RAILROAD AV 27             IMPOUND - PRIVATE
8              500 BLK GRAND AV 15    PROPERTY - FOUND/RECOVERED
9              500 BLK GRAND AV 14                WARRANT ARREST
10           100 BLK E HOLLY ST 13          LIQUOR LAW VIOLATION
11     300 BLK E BELLIS FAIR PK 13                   SHOPLIFTING
12     300 BLK E BELLIS FAIR PK 12                         THEFT
13         1200 BLK E SUNSET DR 11                         THEFT
14             500 BLK GRAND AV 11            INFORMATION REPORT
15         4400 BLK MERIDIAN ST 11                   SHOPLIFTING
16           800 BLK LAKEWAY DR 10                         THEFT
17                1600 BLK C ST 10          LIQUOR LAW VIOLATION
18           900 BLK W HOLLY ST 10                      TRESPASS
19         1000 BLK E SUNSET DR  9                         THEFT
20       300 BLK MEADOWBROOK CT  9       SUSPICIOUS CIRCUMSTANCE
21         1000 BLK E SUNSET DR  9                WARRANT ARREST
22            100 BLK SAMISH WY  9         TROUBLE WITH A PERSON
23          1300 BLK LAKEWAY DR  9         TROUBLE WITH A PERSON
24             000 BLK ZUNKNOWN  8                         THEFT
25        2900 BLK SQUALICUM PK  8         TROUBLE WITH A PERSON
26         1100 BLK E SUNSET DR  8                   SHOPLIFTING
27         1200 BLK N FOREST ST  8                   SHOPLIFTING
28      1200 BLK W BAKERVIEW RD  7                         THEFT
29          200 BLK N SAMISH WY  7       SUSPICIOUS CIRCUMSTANCE
30           100 BLK E HOLLY ST  7                WARRANT ARREST
31           100 BLK E HOLLY ST  7         TROUBLE WITH A PERSON
32           500 BLK W HOLLY ST  7         TROUBLE WITH A PERSON
33      2700 BLK W MAPLEWOOD AV  7 DOMESTIC DISPUTE (NO ASSAULT)
34        4000 BLK NORTHWEST AV  7                 VEHICLE PROWL
35            3200 BLK ARBOR CT  7          LIQUOR LAW VIOLATION
36        1500 BLK BIRCHWOOD AV  6                         THEFT
37                200 BLK 36 ST  6                         THEFT
38         3900 BLK MERIDIAN ST  6                         THEFT
39       000 BLK BELLIS FAIR PK  6       SUSPICIOUS CIRCUMSTANCE
40       000 BLK BELLIS FAIR PK  6                WARRANT ARREST
41 000 BLK ZOUTSIDE CITY LIMITS  6                WARRANT ARREST
42         4400 BLK MERIDIAN ST  6                WARRANT ARREST
43           500 BLK W HOLLY ST  6                WARRANT ARREST
44         1200 BLK E SUNSET DR  6         TROUBLE WITH A PERSON
45                200 BLK 36 ST  6         TROUBLE WITH A PERSON
46        200 BLK E MAGNOLIA ST  6         TROUBLE WITH A PERSON
47         3900 BLK MERIDIAN ST  6         TROUBLE WITH A PERSON
48        100 BLK E MAGNOLIA ST  6          LIQUOR LAW VIOLATION
49           100 BLK W HOLLY ST  6          LIQUOR LAW VIOLATION
50       000 BLK BELLIS FAIR PK  6                   SHOPLIFTING
51           2900 BLK WOBURN ST  6                   SHOPLIFTING
52         4200 BLK MERIDIAN ST  6          ACCIDENT - HIT & RUN

All Offenses between 05.10 - 08.07 2015 (89 days)

                           Offense   n
1                            THEFT 430
2          SUSPICIOUS CIRCUMSTANCE 301
3                   WARRANT ARREST 292
4            TROUBLE WITH A PERSON 288
5    DOMESTIC DISPUTE (NO ASSAULT) 239
6       PROPERTY - FOUND/RECOVERED 223
7                    VEHICLE PROWL 192
8                  ACCIDENT - AUTO 191
9                    WELFARE CHECK 168
10              MALICIOUS MISCHIEF 166
11              INFORMATION REPORT 165
12        TRAFFIC STOP (Violation) 138
13            LIQUOR LAW VIOLATION 131
14                  MENTAL PROBLEM 122
15                     SHOPLIFTING 104
16                        TRESPASS 104
17                        BURGLARY  97
18            ACCIDENT - HIT & RUN  95
19               IMPOUND - PRIVATE  88
20                      CIVIL CASE  86
21                  ASSIST CITIZEN  84
22           ASSAULT - Misdemeanor  83
23        MUNICIPAL CODE VIOLATION  76
24              THEFT OF A BICYCLE  76
25               ACCIDENT - INJURY  74
26             ASSIST OTHER AGENCY  72
27                 PARKING PROBLEM  63
28                        GRAFFITI  56
29            NEIGHBORHOOD DISPUTE  56
30                JUVENILE PROBLEM  55
31      VIOLATION OF A COURT ORDER  55
32     DRIVING UNDER THE INFLUENCE  54
33        SUICIDE - Attempt/Threat  51
34               HOMELESS CLEAN UP  48
35  IDENTITY THEFT - IMPERSONATION  46
36                 NOISE ORDINANCE  45
37           HOMELESS NOTIFICATION  43
38            AUTO THEFT - TMVWOOP  42
39          FIELD INTERVIEW REPORT  40
40                JUVENILE RUNAWAY  38
41              DISORDERLY CONDUCT  33
42     DRUG - NARCOTICS VIOLATIONS  33
43                    DRUNK PERSON  32
44                      LOUD PARTY  32
45                        HOMELESS  30
46               SERVICE OF PAPERS  29
47        ALARM (COMMERCIAL/OTHER)  28
48             DEATH INVESTIGATION  28
49                      HARASSMENT  28
50                 PROPERTY - LOST  28
51                ASSAULT - Felony  21
52                           FIGHT  21
53                          LITTER  21
54                  MISSING PERSON  19
55                       TRANSPORT  18
56                    EXTRA PATROL  17
57       URINATING IN PUBLIC PLACE  17
58   TRESPASS AUTHORIZATION LETTER  16
59           DRUGS - INVESTIGATION  15
60                         ROBBERY  14
61                            RAPE  13
62   OBSTRUCTING A LAW ENF OFFICER  12
63                        OVERDOSE  12
64                   SENILE PERSON  12
65       SITTING & LYING VIOLATION  12
66                      DRUG HOUSE  11
67                       FIREWORKS  11
68                  SECURITY CHECK  11
69                 CONTACT SUBJECT  10
70                  ANIMAL PROBLEM   9
71                     COUNTERFEIT   9
72                         FORGERY   9
73                           FRAUD   9
74                    PROSTITUTION   9
75               ABANDONED VEHICLE   8
76           HARASSING PHONE CALLS   8
77         TRAFFIC CONTROL/PROBLEM   8
78                    JUNK VEHICLE   7
79   POSSESSION OF STOLEN PROPERTY   7
80                         THREATS   7
81                   AUTO RECOVERY   6
82     COMMUNITY ORIENTED POLICING   5
83    FALSE STATEMENT OR REPORTING   5
84                         PROWLER   5
85                 RAPE OF A CHILD   5
86                       ROAD RAGE   5
87                       UNFOUNDED   5
88               INDECENT EXPOSURE   4
89                          HAZARD   3
90                     SHOTS FIRED   3
91                         SUICIDE   3
92                ALARM (VERIFIED)   2
93        ARSON - RECKLESS BURNING   2
94              CHILD - LOST/FOUND   2
95                     CHILD ABUSE   2
96          CUSTODIAL INTERFERENCE   2
97                      EXPLOSIVES   2
98                   GANG ACTIVITY   2
99  KIDNAP - Unlawful Imprisonment   2
100            SEX CRIME (NO RAPE)   2
101                      WATCH FOR   2
102              WEAPON VIOLATIONS   2
103               911 HANG UP CALL   1
104                   ANIMAL ABUSE   1
105                 BIKE VIOLATION   1
106                  CROWD CONTROL   1
107             FIRE INVESTIGATION   1
108      IMPOUND (LAW ENFORCEMENT)   1
109                     INSPECTION   1
110             PRESCRIPTION FRAUD   1
111                   PUBLIC TALKS   1
112              VEHICULAR ASSAULT   1
113                      VOYEURISM   1

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