How GE2018 Could Play out in WM,SK,SJ,IS. Part I: The Districts

Post under Construction. Last update: 9:48 AM 10/16/2018 . This post is best seen on a wide screen desktop.-RMF

In the table below, we can see combined GE 2016 results for Clinton+Stein (CS) or Trump+Johnson (TJ) and Primary 2018 results for MariaCantwell (MC) or SusanHutchison (SH). Skagit 10 (light blue), Whatcom 42-2 (dark blue) and 40th LD (yellow) are critical for Democrat success in the four county area. In reality, only WM 40-2, WM 42-2, SK 40-1 and SJ 40-2 are sure bets for 'blue' in a heavy turnout GE.  This makes LD 40  + WM 42-2 (North Bellingham) the liberal anchors in a four county area that could turn red with a stronger Republican turnout. This helps put the "double Mike P." strategy in perspective. Petrish and Peetoom can't really beat Lekanoff and Frazey, but they can help Seguine (R) beat Hazelrigg-Hernandez (D) and also help the 42LD Rs in their customary cruise over the 42LD Ds. No votes can be taken for granted in this year's four county election that mostly pits middle-aged Republican men versus progressive Democratic women. The primary went mostly to the Democrats in Whatcom County. However, turnout is likely to resemble GE 2016 this November due to the new stampless ballot and an unruly, "hyper energized" electorate now chafing at their electoral bits nationwide!  Let the balloting begin!

    CD LD County    CS    TJ    MC    SH   StatusGE  StatusPRI

 1:  1 42     WM 21683 30582 11763 11655  Light Red Light Blue

 2:  2 10     IS 21767 20784 13552  7612 Light Blue  Dark Blue

 3:  2 40     WM 25079  8355 12810  2997  Dark Blue  Dark Blue

 4:  2 42     WM 14828  5266  8181  1742  Dark Blue  Dark Blue

 5:  2 40     SK  9925  8994  6013  3135 Light Blue  Dark Blue

 6:  2 40     SJ  7639  3090  4780  1197  Dark Blue  Dark Blue

 7:  2 10     SK  4843  4592  2913  1749 Light Blue  Dark Blue

 8:  1 10     SK  3909  3704  2270  1295 Light Blue  Dark Blue

 9:  1 40     SK  4129  3354  1862   935 Light Blue  Dark Blue

10:  2 39     SK  2547  3637  1385  1074  Light Red Light Blue

11:  1 39     SK  2283  3441  1374  1046   Dark Red Light Blue

12:  1 40     WM  1487  1117   811   474 Light Blue  Dark Blue

In the charts below, black lines are Congressional Districts (CD1 & CD2). Red lines are Legislative Districts 10, 39, 40,  & 42.  Blue scale for precincts is the Clinton+Stein percentage. Note that Clinton+Stein vs. Trump+Johnson doesn't give us the complete picture for GE 2016 since there were so many (un-tabulated) write-ins presumably for Bernie.  For more data, please see 'Notes' far below. Click to enlarge the charts!

Disregard Snohomish (e.g. Stanwood, Marysville) and Jefferson (e.g. Port Townsend) Counties here. Whatcom, San Juan, Skagit, Island counties share an Appellate Court 3 race. Whatcom (south), San Juan (all), Skagit (North) share the  40 LD races. The 42nd LD fits entirely in whatever is left of Whatcom once the smaller 40LD is subtracted.  The Congressional Districts (WA 1 and 2)  are much larger and not fully pictured here. WA 10 CDs currently average 428K registered voters. WA 49 LDs have a mean of about 87K, but LDs 10,40, 42 are all above 95K registered, active voter right now. For more information, see subheading 'Notes' below.

Notes:

This data looks at the four counties for GE 2018: "WM","SK","IS","SJ". The Counties,Legislative Districts and Congressional District boundaries are the same between GE 2016 and Primary 2018. The Precincts have changed in some cases. I do not account for precinct changes here. Effectively, the four counties covers our Appellate Court 3 race, LD 40 races and LD 42nd races. For the collected four counties, I have these totals:

GE2016                         Primary 2018
Clinton+Stein   Trump+Johnson  MariaCantwell  SusanHutchison 
119754          96651          67714          34911


For these races the Primary 2018 totals here are less than half GE2016 totals:
(Cantwell + Hutchison) / (Clinton+Stein +  Trump+Johnson)
102625/216405
[1] 0.4742266

The 49 LDs have a mean of about 87K. The 10 CDs have a mean of about 428K. However LDs 10,40, and 42 each have over 95 registered,active voters now:

v1[,.N,.(LegislativeDistrict)][-50][,mean(N)]
[1] 87287.57

v1[,.N,.(CongressionalDistrict)][-11][,mean(N)]
[1] 427709.8

v1[LegislativeDistrict %in% c(10,40,42),.N,.(LegislativeDistrict)]
   LegislativeDistrict     N

1:                  10 97933
2:                  40 92690
3:                  42 95648

Here's how the LDs divide up with CD1 and CD2:

v1[LegislativeDistrict == 10,.N,.(CongressionalDistrict)]
   CongressionalDistrict     N

1:                     2 84798
2:                     1 13135

v1[LegislativeDistrict == 40,.N,.(CongressionalDistrict)]
   CongressionalDistrict     N

1:                     2 78763
2:                     1 13927

v1[LegislativeDistrict == 42,.N,.(CongressionalDistrict)]
   CongressionalDistrict     N

1:                     1 69634
2:                     2 26014

The LD/County combinations (e.g. 'LCC') of registered, active voters for September 2018 ranked by population are below. Notice the LD/County splits for WM and SK. Only IS and SJ are single county/LD populations.

CC:"WM","SK","IS","SJ"   
v1[CountyCode %in% CC,.N,.(CountyCode,CongressionalDistrict,LCC)][order(-N)]

    CountyCode CongressionalDistrict   LCC     N

 1:         WM                     1 42-WM 69634
 2:         IS                     2 10-IS 55198
 3:         WM                     2 40-WM 41015
 4:         WM                     2 42-WM 26014
 5:         SK                     2 40-SK 24574
 6:         SJ                     2 40-SJ 13174
 7:         SK                     2 10-SK 12016
 8:         SK                     1 40-SK 10714
 9:         SK                     1 10-SK 10042
10:         SK                     2 39-SK  8884
11:         SK                     1 39-SK  8322
12:         WM                     1 40-WM  3213

LD/CD splits can have separate political bias. As an example, 42-WM is split into CD-1 (conservative) and CD-2(liberal):

   LD County CongressionalDistrict     N
1: 42     WM                     1 69634 # more conservative
2: 42     WM                     2 26014 # more liberal

These are the four county LD/Count/CD splits by active registered voters as September. See the map above to see how it all divides up. Remember, the four counties have parts of CD1, CD2, LD39. LDs 10,40,42 fit wholly within the four county borders.

v1[CountyCode %in% CC,.N,.(CountyCode,CongressionalDistrict,LegislativeDistrict,LCC)][
order(-N)]

    CountyCode CongressionalDistrict LegislativeDistrict   LCC     N

 1:         WM                     1                  42 42-WM 69634
 2:         IS                     2                  10 10-IS 55198
 3:         WM                     2                  40 40-WM 41015
 4:         WM                     2                  42 42-WM 26014
 5:         SK                     2                  40 40-SK 24574
 6:         SJ                     2                  40 40-SJ 13174
 7:         SK                     2                  10 10-SK 12016
 8:         SK                     1                  40 40-SK 10714
 9:         SK                     1                  10 10-SK 10042
10:         SK                     2                  39 39-SK  8884
11:         SK                     1                  39 39-SK  8322
12:         WM                     1                  40 40-WM  3213

2016 GE Results:
CS = Clinton + Stein
TJ = Trump + Johnson

m4[CS/(CS+TJ) > .6,StatusGE:="Dark Blue"]
m4[CS/(CS+TJ) > .5 & CS/(CS+TJ) < .6,StatusGE:="Light Blue"]
m4[CS/(CS+TJ) < .5 & CS/(CS+TJ) > .4, StatusGE:="Light Red"]
m4[CS/(CS+TJ) < .4,StatusGE:="Dark Red"]


2018 Primary Results 
MC = Maria Cantwell
SH = Susan Hutchison

m4[MC/(MC+SH) > .6,StatusPRI:="Dark Blue"]
m4[MC/(MC+SH) > .5 & MC/(MC+SH) < .6,StatusPRI:="Light Blue"]
m4[MC/(MC+SH) < .5 & MC/(MC+SH) > .4, StatusPRI:="Light Red"]
m4[MC/(MC+SH) < .4,StatusPRI:="Dark Red"]


Remember: Primary 2018 had less than half the turnout of GE 2016.

    CD LD County    CS    TJ    MC    SH   StatusGE  StatusPRI
 1:  1 42     WM 21683 30582 11763 11655  Light Red Light Blue
 2:  2 10     IS 21767 20784 13552  7612 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 3:  2 40     WM 25079  8355 12810  2997  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 4:  2 42     WM 14828  5266  8181  1742  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 5:  2 40     SK  9925  8994  6013  3135 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 6:  2 40     SJ  7639  3090  4780  1197  Dark Blue  Dark Blue
 7:  2 10     SK  4843  4592  2913  1749 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 8:  1 10     SK  3909  3704  2270  1295 Light Blue  Dark Blue
 9:  1 40     SK  4129  3354  1862   935 Light Blue  Dark Blue
10:  2 39     SK  2547  3637  1385  1074  Light Red Light Blue
11:  1 39     SK  2283  3441  1374  1046   Dark Red Light Blue
12:  1 40     WM  1487  1117   811   474 Light Blue  Dark Blue