11/06/2018 Matchbacks and Projections GE2018 for WM, SK, IS, SJ

Click to enlarge the Map. For more on this data please see https://www.bellinghampoliticsandeconomics.com/2018/10/precinct-and-county-participation-maps.html

This post gives GE 2018 ballot statistics and election projections for the "four county area": (WM,SK,IS,SJ) and their CD, LD districts.  I am using a GE 2016  Clinton+Stein projection of precincts as the base for my projections due to wide scale national expectations of an unexpectedly large midterm turnout. My method will probably result in a gross approximation of outcomes. I am using no private voter files, no latent classes, no individual profiling, just precinct percentages.

The Ballot Statistics page is always one morning ahead of the state wide matchback data. Currently, (11.06.2018), we are 1 day from the election. Statewide 2,305,405 good ballots have been returned as of 11.06.2018.  The Ballot Status data is responsible for my projections. I have that data currently showing about 2,234,777.
11/06/2018 from Ballot Statistics:

County	Voters	Returned	Percentage
ISLAND	55808	33560	60.10%
SAN JUAN	13327	9450	70.90%
SKAGIT	75442	33218	44.00%
WHATCOM	139750	92094	65.90%
Four Counties	284327	168322	59%

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Begin Four County Ballot Statistics and Projections

11/06/2018 from Ballot Status data:

m5a[,.(Turnout=round((fsum(N)/fsum(Active))  * 100,3))]
   Turnout
1:  56.715

m5a[,D:=round(N * (CSpct/100))]
m5a[,R:=round(N * (1 - (CSpct/100)))]
m5a[,.(Total=fsum(N),D=fsum(D),R=fsum(R))]
    Total     D     R
1: 163408 91498 71484

m5a[,.(Total=fsum(N),D=fsum(D),R=fsum(R)),.(CountyCode)][order(CountyCode)]
   CountyCode Total     D     R
1:         IS 32320 16685 15635
2:         SJ  8705  6189  2516
3:         SK 31129 15544 15252
4:         WM 91254 53080 38081

m5a[,.(Total=fsum(N),D=fsum(D),R=fsum(R)),.(LD)][order(LD)]
   LD Total     D     R
1: 10 42367 21893 20473
2: 39  6085  2453  3564
3: 40 54158 36386 17415
4: 42 60798 30766 30032

m5a[,.(Total=fsum(N),D=fsum(D),R=fsum(R)),.(CD)][order(CD)]
   CD  Total     D     R
1:  1  56376 24230 31720
2:  2 107032 67268 39764

m5a[,.(Total=fsum(N),D=fsum(D),R=fsum(R)),.(LD,CD)][order(CD,LD)]
   LD CD Total     D     R
1: 10  1  4393  2263  2130
2: 39  1  2990  1180  1742
3: 40  1  5940  3137  2445
4: 42  1 43053 17650 25403
5: 10  2 37974 19630 18343
6: 39  2  3095  1273  1822
7: 40  2 48218 33249 14970
8: 42  2 17745 13116  4629

m5a[,.(Total=fsum(N),D=fsum(D),R=fsum(R)),.(LD,CountyCode)][order(CountyCode,LD)]
   LD CountyCode Total     D     R
1: 10         IS 32320 16685 15635
2: 40         SJ  8705  6189  2516
3: 10         SK 10047  5208  4838
4: 39         SK  6085  2453  3564
5: 40         SK 14997  7883  6850
6: 40         WM 30456 22314  8049
7: 42         WM 60798 30766 30032