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Sunday, March 1, 2020

'7 Easy Steps for Voting in the WA Presidential Primary' and 'What Happens in you Don't Follow the Instructions!'

3/3/2020 Update: An excellent web site is providing the service of listing the ballot status of all WA voters. Please see https://votewashington.info/voter/wa to check whether or not your ballot has been accepted or not. The WA state site www.voteWA.gov is  the most official and straight forward path. Check "Ballot Status" after logging in . -RMF

As of Friday's 02.28.2020 Presidential Primary matchback, "No Party" declarations (Votes without the proper party declaration) make up about 7% of all Ballots. By the end of this well participated election, tens of thousands of voters could have their ballots rejected  for not declaring a party. Check your "Ballot Status" at www.voteWA.gov . Call your local county elections to "cure" your ballot.  Click to enlarge the charts and screenshots. Also see:






All State Rejected vs Accepted Ballots by Age and Challenged Groups: 'Non Party' Challenges vs All Other Challenges. 


If you did not correctly fill out the above on your voter envelope, your ballot has been rejected. Screenshot from:7 Easy Steps for Voting in the WA Presidential Primary 

Some code and output


# Ballot Status Counts Only
PP.2020[,.N,.(BallotStatus)][order(-N)]
   BallotStatus      N
1:     Accepted 611716
2:     Rejected  44546
3:     Received  30546

Selection of any of the bottom three (NEI, NULL, BOT)  will result in a "rejected" or Challenged Ballot. Check your "Ballot Status" at www.voteWA.gov : 

# Party Counts PP.2020[,.N,.(Party)][order(-N)]
   Party      N
1:   DEM 350216 # Democratic
2:   REP 284298 # Republican
3:   NEI  35380 # Neither party checked
4:        16694 # NULL (will be fixed)
5:   BOT    220 # Both parties checked

PP.2020[,.N,.(BallotStatus,Party)][,dcast(.SD,Party ~ BallotStatus,value.var = "N",fun.aggregate=fsum)][order(-Accepted)]

Selection of any of the bottom three (NEI, NULL, BOT) will result in a "rejected" or Challenged Ballot. Check your "Ballot Status" at www.voteWA.gov : 

# Party By Ballot Status Counts    
    Party Accepted Received Rejected
1:   DEM   330664    15179     4373 #Democratic
2:   REP   264401    15031     4866 #Republican
3:          16644        0       50 #NULL (will be fixed)
4:   NEI        6      336    35038 #Neither party selected
5:   BOT        1        0      219 #Both parties selected

# ChallengeReason Only
PP.2020[,.N,.(ChallengeReason)][order(-N)]
              ChallengeReason      N
 1:                           642263 # Unchallenged Ballots
 2:                  No Party  31077
 3:           No Party No Sig   4676
 4:  Signature Does Not Match   3894
 5:                    Review   1367
 6:                      HOLD    721
 7:          No Party, No Sig    636
 8:                  Unsigned    549
 9:      No Signature on File    380
10:          Other than Voter    377
11:       Ballot Style Change    252
12:              Both Parties    237
13:                  Modified     87
14:          Canvassing Board     53
15:          Other Than Voter     40
16:         Voter Name Change     37
17:                      Hold     36
18:      No Signature On File     33
19:               ID Required     25
20:            Empty Envelope     18
21:                  Deceased     15
22:         Power of Attorney     11
23:              Marked Moved     10
24:               Id Required      6
25: Witness Signature Missing      6
26:   Advanced Special Ballot      1
27:                  Too Late      1
              ChallengeReason      N

# Party Counts Only
PP.2020[,.N,.(Party)][order(-N)]
   Party      N
1:   DEM 350216
2:   REP 284298
3:   NEI  35380 #Neither party
4:        16694 #NULL party (should be corrected)
5:   BOT    220 #Both parties marked

# Percentage
# Percent of Neither + Null + Both / All Ballots
PP.2020[,.N,.(Party)][order(-N)][,round((fsum(N[3]+N[4]+N[5])/(fsum(N))),5) * 100]
[1] 7.614

# Projections:
PP.2020[BallotStatus == "Accepted",.N,]
[1] 611,716 # Accepted 02.28.2020

PP.2020[BallotStatus == "Rejected",.N,]
[1] 44,546  # Rejected 02.28.2020

44546/(44546 + 611716)
[1] 0.0678 # Rate of rejects


(44546/(44546 + 611716)) * 3000000
[1] 203,635 # Final number rejects at 3M or 68% Turnout

(44546/(44546 + 611716)) * 2000000
[1] 135,756. # Final number rejects at 2M or 45% Turnout



Whatcom County Rejected vs Accepted Ballots by Age and Challenge Groups: 'Non Party' Challenges vs All Other Challenges. 

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