Friday, December 26, 2014

How the Democrats can keep from losing next time: Part I Understanding Voter Updates

Last updates per year for active registrants as of 12/19/2014.
Some of the Age and Precinct charting code updated  12:55 PM 12/29/2014 -RMF
Complete for now. Find Part II here -RMF. R Code for Part I  here. R Code for Part II here.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

"Why the Democrats Lost: Part II" : Analysis of 2012,2013,2014 MatchBacks by Voting Age

The data from this analysis follows from Part I. The 2012 vote for Obama and Cantwell contained a much higher percentage of youth voters than the 2014 vote for the 42nd legislative seats.  Whether these youth votes were suppressed, discouraged, or uninterested in voting for  the Democrat candidates in 2014 is unknown. I will hazard this question:  Satpal Sidhu did the best of the Democrat  legislative candidates. He had the narrowest margin of loss.  Was it because he was perceived as more pro business or more moderate? Or was it because he was a person color who attracted more young Hispanic and Native American votes? Or both?  R Code is here.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

"Why the Democrats Lost: Part I" : Analysis of 2012,2013,2014 MatchBacks by Voting Year

The easiest conclusion is that 2012 Cantwell and Obama voters did not turn out for the Democrats in 2014.  It might be possible to conclude that the Republicans energized their base to vote more for their legislative candidates in 2014 than they did for their county candidates in 2013. Click on the charts below to enlarge. R Code is here.

Friday, December 5, 2014

A Final MatchBack analysis for General Election 2014

16,845 42nd LD Precinct Votes "left on the table" from those precincts with over 300 'not voting'. 32K voters registered in the 42nd LD did not participate.  Click on chart too enlarge.
Statistics below paint a dismal picture of participation in the 2014 General Election. 48,205 registered Whatcom County voters did not participate in the 2014 General Election including 31,938 from the LD 42nd where this year's critical races were held.  Arguably, many of the top 30 'not voting'  precincts shown above would have voted for Democrats. R Code here.

Monday, December 1, 2014

A really intriguing work on vote fraud: "Code Red"

CODE RED: Computerized Election Theft and The New American Century by Simon, Jonathan on Kindle for Android!

Saturday, November 22, 2014

More CitizenFour: "the fearlessness and the f**k you"

"There are a number of loopholes for putting people onto the watchlists even if reasonable suspicion cannot be met.
One is clearly defined: The immediate family of suspected terrorists—their spouses, children, parents, or siblings—may be watchlisted without any suspicion that they themselves are engaged in terrorist activity. But another loophole is quite broad—”associates” who have a defined relationship with a suspected terrorist, but whose involvement in terrorist activity is not known. A third loophole is broader still—individuals with “a possible nexus” to terrorism, but for whom there is not enough “derogatory information” to meet the reasonable suspicion standard."

Friday, November 21, 2014

Election Totals: Top Ten WA Counties

Certification will be November 24th for most counties. Data from here. More analysis later.

County Registered
Total Ballots
Counted to Date
Turnout %
Estimated Ballots
on Hand to
be Processed
Total 3,921,679 2,119,758 54.05% 2321
Top10 Totals 3,220,069 1,701,993 52.86%
King 1,181,076 629,931 53.34% 606
Pierce 441,987 220,768 49.95%
Snohomish 416,389 213,616 51.30% 17
Spokane 281,536 158,833 56.42% 25
Clark 249,277 126,200 50.63%
Thurston 162,655 85,277 52.43% 50
Kitsap 154,462 86,472 55.98%
Whatcom 127,280 76,063 59.76% 30
Yakima 106,415 50,551 47.50%
Benton 98,992 54,282 54.83% 475

CitizenFour at the Limelight: "The Age of Surveillance" , "No Place to Hide" , "Spies for Hire"

"All, too, will bear in mind this sacred principle, that though the will of the majority is in all cases to prevail, that will to be rightful must be reasonable; that the minority possess their equal rights, which equal law must protect, and to violate would be oppression. Let us, then, fellow-citizens, unite with one heart and one mind. Let us restore to social intercourse that harmony and affection without which liberty and even life itself are but dreary things. And let us reflect that, having banished from our land that religious intolerance under which mankind so long bled and suffered, we have yet gained little if we countenance a political intolerance as despotic, as wicked, and capable of as bitter and bloody persecutions. During the throes and convulsions of the ancient world, during the agonizing spasms of infuriated man, seeking through blood and slaughter his long-lost liberty, it was not wonderful that the agitation of the billows should reach even this distant and peaceful shore; that this should be more felt and feared by some and less by others, and should divide opinions as to measures of safety. But every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle. We have called by different names brethren of the same principle. We are all Republicans, we are all Federalists. If there be any among us who would wish to dissolve this Union or to change its republican form, let them stand undisturbed as monuments of the safety with which error of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it. " Thomas Jefferson, 1st Inaugural Address (March 1801)

Wednesday, November 12, 2014


"Ultimately what concerned me...was the deception of government officials... We do have to know the bare and broad outlines of the powers that our government is claiming broadly and how they affect us... Because if we don't, we are no longer citizens. We no longer have leaders. We're subjects and we have rulers. Democracy is about participation. And if we are denied the information that we need in order to vote about the policies we want...and the boundaries of our rights... We're no longer really free. We are beginning a descent into a less free, less liberal, more authoritarian society. And when that descent begins, it is very difficult to reverse."
The Virtual Interview: Edward Snowden - The New Yorker Festival
Update: CitizenFour will open at the Pickford Film Center in Bellingham, WA November 21st: -Thanks RMF

On Veteran's Day I went to see CitizenFour at the SIFF Cinema Uptown in the Queen Anne District. It was clearly worth the $12 and the drive to Seattle. Every American should see this film.  Anyone even thinking about dedicating their lives to service for their country should see this film. And, of course, every activist should see this film.  Laura Poitras  is probably the best filmmaker in America today.  This film may be the most revolutionary film to appear across America in recent years. CitizenFour will open at the Pickford Film Center in Bellingham, WA November 21st:

Sunday, November 9, 2014

11.07. Matchbacks and Challenges from 2012, 2013 and 2014 General Elections: "Curing" your invalid signature ballot

Below I have included 2012,2013, and 2014 (to date) General Election Challenge number summaries. To date:

  • 2012 711
  • 2013 634
  • 2014 1118
Some instructive text from Election Desk Administrator Jesse Smiley is included below the yearly Challenge summaries. If you are one of this year's 811 voters who have their ballot challenged on the basis of signature ("No Signature","No Signature Match","Wrong Voter's Signature"), then you should receive a letter giving you the chance to "cure" your ballot sometime before the  11/24/2014 Canvas Board certification. I am working on a web database where you can check if you are one of these.

Friday, November 7, 2014

.Fwd: We're still fighting (Please Donate to WA Dems in these tight races...)

Dear Reader: 

I usually don't personally sanction donation requests. But this one is important. Signature checks can be subjective and can deny challenged voters their franchise. In these tight races, the Democrats are working to address these issues.  After Whatcom County (and other) dismal results, I know you (like me)  are a tired, depressed (or angry) Democrat or Democrat supporter. But please consider Karen Deal's pitch for funding below the break. Here's a chance to follow through on post election efforts to keep the WA state house Democratic and support the integrity of the vote!!



Thursday, November 6, 2014

Matchbacks 11.06.14: Votes left on the table...

Editor's Note 4:49 PM 11/7/2014: This data included both Active and Inactive Voters for the 42nd.
Click on these charts to enlarge. See table below the break. Checked all this data as best I could. Final tallies (not much left) will change it little.
Above: LD 42nd: Participation Rates to date for 119 precints. See table below the break.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

MatchBacks for 11.05.2014

Tonight's returns have the Democrats still 5K - 8K behind despite an increase to 65,446 ballots counted. Matchbacks have 74,881 ballots that have been accepted as good ready to count in the courthouse. Signature Challenges continue to grow (799 total):
  • 156 No Signature
  • 581 No Signature Match
  • 62 Wrong Voter's Signature
69% (52025) of the accepted ballots hail from the 42nd
25354 from the 100 Series of the 42 LD
13413 from the 200 Series of the 42 LD
13258 from the 300 - 801 Series of the 42 LD

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Election Night Matchbacks 11/04/2014

The Dems are down in the 42nd by about 7K votes in each of three races (Senate, representative(2)). 66,056 Ballots are returned Good. It's not clear how many ballots are out. What is clear is that this turnout will be strong and has a very high signature challenge rate:

  AVReturnStatus  freq
1     Challenged   640
2           Good 66056
3  Undeliverable  2090

         AVReturnChallenge  freq
1                          66056
2               Electronic     3
3              ID Required    10
4                No Ballot     5
5             No Signature   116
6       No Signature Match   449
7        Power of Attorney     1
8   Second Ballot Received     4
9            Undeliverable  2090
10 Wrong Voter's Signature    51
11            Z - Deceased     1

LAST CALL!!! What Happens If YOU DON'T VOTE!!

Calling all Democrats and Friend of Democrat Voters:
Whatcom County Drop Boxes and Election Office in Whatcom County are open to 8:00  PM tonight!

Okay, it 6:00 PM.  Tuesday, November 4, 2014 on the troubled Planet Earth, an M class planet of seven billion people spiraling out of control somewhere in the Milky Way Galaxy.

And now you have to ask yourself, "What kind of voter am I?"

  • Are you the kind of voter that just doesn't care about whether you vote or not but will cry hot dimes when the Republicans cut your support programs?
  • Are you the kind of voter that waited to the last minute and are now just too tired to spend 15 minutes on that ballot and drive downtown?
  • Are you the worn out parent who just hasn't had the time?
Well. Here's the deal. In a parallel future running beside the one where you drag your tired *ss off your dinner seat, finish up YOUR ENTIRE BALLOT and VOTE, here's what happens:

Why I'm voting for Satpal Sidhu

"...50,000 people fall into poverty every year in our state. This is what income inequality looks like. The top 10 percent are getting the economic recovery. 90% are falling behind...People working 60 or 70 hours a week can not make it. It's not the policy, it's income inequality."  Satpal Sidhu  from 2014 Human Services Debate from COB Youtube 
How often do you get the chance to vote for a Fullbright Scholar in Whatcom County? How often do you get the chance to vote for a Fullbright Scholar in any event? But Satpal Sidhu is far more than this. He is an engineer, businessman, educator, and long time Whatcom County resident. What I like most about him is the way he combines discussions of social equality with business growth and the promotion of education.  It's a troika of issues that are less and less promoted together as important policy objectives as national politics have become more polarized.

Monday, November 3, 2014

MatchBacks to 11/03/2014

About 10,000 ballots were logged as returned this weekend today.  47,415  out of 127, 211 registered voters have successfully had their ballots marked as good to date.  If you are one of the 2,090 that haven't received your ballot because you moved and didn't update your address at,  you can still walk in to Whatcom County Courthouse (Election Desk) and find a way to vote.  (Yes, I checked on this today!) Please talk to helpful election desk. Tomorrow is your last day to do this.

Please  Keep Voting....

  AVReturnStatus  freq
1     Challenged   379
2           Good 47415
3  Undeliverable  2090
         AVReturnChallenge  freq
1                          47415
2               Electronic     3
3              ID Required     1
4                No Ballot     4
5             No Signature    89
6       No Signature Match   241
7        Power of Attorney     1
8   Second Ballot Received     4
9            Undeliverable  2090
10 Wrong Voter's Signature    35
11            Z - Deceased     1

Why I'm supporting Bob Burr for Public Utilities District

Q: "Why has the PUD already awarded a thirty year contract to Gateway Terminal for almost two billion gallons [per year] for water." [LVW moderator]
A: "Why did they ? Beats the heck out of me! This contract was inherited or bought from Pacific International Terminals. It was set to expire in 2015. It was renewable on a year to year basis and there was no need whatsoever to extend that for thirty years. We have potential water shortage problems in this county,   We certainly have problems with water rights and to commit two billion gallons a year for thirty years was nonsensical and nearly evil." PUD #1 Candidate Bob Burr from COB Youtube video starting here
Baring some miracle of new energy, the next twenty years of Whatcom County's economic history will bring increasing involvement with the carbon club. As if two oil refineries, expanded natural gas and oil pipelines, and the nations's planned largest coal terminal were not enough, we can expect our nearby location to Vancouver, B.C. (where they are now not just shipping coal but Albertan oil) will intertwine our two urban economies with the energy economy.   This counts as a bittersweet economic development even if you are not an environmentalist or allergic asthmatic. Extra tax monies from the mountains of profit generated by the carbon club doesn't necessarily go to the population nearby the resource economies locale. Good examples of this are West Virginia and most of the Middle East. But there are other "carbon club" communities singularly impoverished here on the West coast of America. The California cities of Richmond and Carson don't ever make those "top ten places to retire" lists.

Sunday, November 2, 2014

How (and why) I filled out my ballot

Tools I used  for marking my 2014 WA state mail in  ballot: Hard Surface (Clipboard), Ball Point Pen, Small Metal Ruler and the  Internet. Note that there are no soft drinks, food, or blood anywhere near my ballot. Note that I tore off the stub (upper left) and tested my ball point on it before using my small metal ruler to draw straight lines on my ballot placed on the hard clipboard surface.

Saturday, November 1, 2014

Seth Fleetwood vs. Doug Ericksen Flyers Compared (Or why I am voting for Seth Fleetwood)

Below are montages (click to enlarge)  of the collected 30 placard flyers we have received from those people who support Seth Fleetwood and those people who do not support Seth Fleetwood (e.g. probably support Doug Ericksen) for state Senator in WA 42 LD. This district of 85K voters will have well over a  $1M spent on just these two men's campaigns by the time this is over. You will notice that the thirteen pro Seth Fleetwood flyers I receive are almost all positive in tone. They generally involve not only interest groups I know, but community members I know as well. The woman with the quote "My kids safety is my number one priority" is the owner (Arlene Mantha) of 250 Flora, arguably one of the better lunch experiences in Bellingham, WA.  I know for certain that she cares about children, because she feeds my son Rory every time we visit the Whatcom Children's Museum.   "All these years of being involved with the PTA at my children's school", she said almost apologetically to me one lunch. "It leads you to become involved on a political level".   Of course it does. Public schools need funding and parents need political champions to fund their schools. As a voter, I can readily believe a Democrat like Seth Fleetwood will champion education and social services.

Now let us look at the truly scary and (as far as I am concerned)  mostly defamatory seventeen pieces of flack that have been delivered to my mail box from the people who ostensibly support Senator Doug Ericksen. I say ostensibly because there is little in any of these advertisements that actually tells me what Doug Ericksen has done in all his years in the Senate. There are a lot of nasty pictures of Seth: Seth as the flake, Seth as hungover, Seth as the tax increaser, Seth as the carpetbagger, Seth as Pinocchio for heaven's sake.... Almost every placard is dagger of character assassination with scant proof for the assertions; assertions which I can recognize as created from dubious logical conclusions to begin with. For example, all politicians are forced to raise taxes in an inflationary driven economy, otherwise good people would simply stop training to become cops, firemen and teachers!  No, Seth Fleetwood (as a state Senator) will not be able to control, in any meaningful way, the price of heating oil or gasoline. Energy is a fungible worldwide economy whose price is controlled but it is really improbable that anybody who helps control the price of energy will ever run for state senator!  Your state senator is your "go to" person to help your community fund its development, downtown, waterfront, industry,agriculture, tourism, retail, schools, emergency services,etc. I simply have no idea from these advertisements how Senator Ericksen has ever done this for me.  All I know from these advertisements is that the people who support Senator Ericksen detest Seth Fleetwood.

It might well be that Senator Ericksen has been far more effective and more bipartisan than he has been portrayed by Democrats and their interest groups. But how am I supposed to know this? I'm voting for Seth Fleetwood not just because I distrust most Republicans these days, but because people I know believe in him.  Please remember to vote!

Accumulated MatchBack Data from 9/20 through 10/31

Picked up my first matchbacks on Thursday. First round is cumulative.  To date we have

  AVReturnStatus  freq
1     Challenged   270
2           Good 36897
3  Undeliverable  2027

        AVReturnChallenge  freq
1                         36897
2               No Ballot     3
3            No Signature    71
4      No Signature Match   160
5       Power of Attorney     1
6  Second Ballot Received     4
7           Undeliverable  2027
8 Wrong Voter's Signature    30
9            Z - Deceased     1

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Ballotcounted dispositions (null, 0, 1) mapped per precinct for GE 2012 and GE2013 elections.

Here are three 'BallotCounted_' dispositions (null, 0, 1) mapped each per precinct for the last two general elections in WA LD42nd and the difference for each disposition between the two. SQL code here.  

BallotCounted_ = '' 
This is null; In general the voter was not or is not registered for the election counted. In an active voter list, this also refers to successfully challenged votes. Newly active voters for 2014 will also be null until they vote.
BallotCounted =  '0' 
Mail Ballot Issued but not returned. Vote not successfully cast.
BallotCounted = '1'
Mail Ballot Issued and Returne. Vote successfully cast. 

For some reason, one of the smaller precincts is missing. Data is from 10/29/2014 voterdb for Whatcom County.To look at this data you may want to paste it into a spreadsheet or in notepad use one of the Courier fonts to maintain appropriate spacing.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Preceding our votes on I594, we have a spree-killing at a WA School

PDC map of i594 financing showing $3.2M in contributions from New York.
"And... The thing is, is I don't always just go out an shoot something. It's not my favorite part about hunting. My favorite part about it is about just being in the woods. Just me my dad an my brother. An even if I'm sitting in the passenger seat sleeping it doesn't matter. I like to be in the woods an that's it...." from the Facebook page of Jaylen Fryburg (now removed)
I have a hard time buying all the mass shooting stories we are fed in the news: The last group of spree killing stories have all been about troubled  young men and when you read the press reports later everyone from novice psychologists to journalists have a field day trying to perform amateur criminal psychoanalysis and discover what happened. Internet and Facebook commentary spread like wildfire.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

The "Obama Diff": Can 2014 turnout match 2012 turnout?

Active Voters 10/20/2014 : Light Red extensions are the per precinct difference between turnout of 2012 GE vs. 2013 GE.
The chart above gives us the "Obama Diff" or the difference between those voters active now (10/20/2014) who voted in the 2012 GE but not the 2013 GE in the 42nd LD. These 19K voters are what I am calling the Whatcom County "swing vote" in the 42nd LD . The 42nd LD races may well come down to these 19K voters and it may be as simple as this:

  • If you support Democrats, you want these 19K to vote
  • If you support Republicans, you want to suppress these 19K

It's almost certain that most of the difference between the red and blue in the chart above will vote Democrat.  However, those 42nd LD voters elected Cantwell and Obama in 2012 , but not McClendon and Krough. So how will they turn out for Monjure, Sidhu, Fleetwood in 2014?

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

You should have your mail-in ballot : Precincts and their counts: 09/05/2014 - 10/20/2014

If you updated your address, if you registered to vote, then you should have your mail-in ballot by now!.  Call or visit the Whatcom County Election office if you should but do not. Active voters per precinct in the 119 42nd LD precincts between  09/05/2014 - 10/20/2014:

Fwd: Your guide to the Charter Review Commission

Democrat guide to Charter Review Candidates is below the break. -RMF
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Whatcom Democrats <>
Date: Tue, Oct 21, 2014 at 2:43 PM
Subject: Your guide to the Charter Review Commission
To: Ryan <>

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Fwd: Your 2014 Progressive Voters Guide

Reader: I generally support FUSE endorsements and think they do the progressive community an important service. I recommend you become a member and join their mailing list. I may personally vote against their  591 and 594 recommendations; I am researching those ballot measure in an ongoing post. FUSE has a humorous rebuttal to pro I591 and con 594 voters like myself; unfortunately it is not a technical or legal piece.

--------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Aaron Ostrom, Fuse Votes" <>
Date: Oct 18, 2014 11:54 AM
Subject: Your 2014 Progressive Voters Guide
To: "Ryan M Ferris" <>

Dear Friend,

The 2014 general election is here! Your ballot is filled with candidates and measures that will make a huge impact on equality, economic security, and the future of Washington. Voting in the November 4 election is an important first step toward retaking the state Senate and supporting progressives in many local races that will impact you, your neighbors, and your children.

To spread the word about all the other races on your ballot, we worked with Washington's leading progressive organizations to produce the 2014 Progressive Voters Guide to the general election — your ticket to highly-informed voting based on progressive values.

The deadline for mailing in your ballot is November 4, but you should join your neighbors and mail it in today! Please forward this guide to your friends, family, and co-workers — they can find their own locally customized version at

Thanks for all that you do (especially voting),

Aaron and the entire team at Fuse

Share via Facebook Share Via Twitter

Fwd: Endorsements for your ballot

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Greg Haffner, WA Democrats" <>
Date: Oct 16, 2014 10:20 AM
Subject: Endorsements for your ballot
To: "Ryan Ferris" <>

You're one of the thousands who have committed to vote this year.
Thank you so much!
This is the time where it really counts. 
Ballots have already gone out in some counties, and all ballots will be out by Friday. We're really relying on you, our strongest supporters, to turn out for Democrats.
You wouldn't have committed to vote if you weren't someone who cares about making the right choices in the election. We want to help.
In a midterm election like this, we will win or lose based on who shows up. Here are some steps you can take to make informed choices when you fill out your ballot:
  1. Do some prep work. Take a look at your voters guide. Go to our Candidates page and visit the websites of the Democrats running in the election.
  2. Find endorsements for your ballot. Local Democratic organizations have made endorsements in races up and down the ballot. You can feel confident that endorsed candidates represent Democratic values. Just go to the Endorsement Finder and enter your name and zip code to find a set of recommendations created just for you.
  3. Deposit your ballot into a mailbox or dropbox. Ballots must be postmarked or in a dropbox by November 4th. 
  4. Please, vote early. If you vote early, then your vote gets counted early. You can track the status of your ballot on MyVote. Campaigns can then focus on reminding people to vote who really need to be reminded, not great Democrats like you! 
Thank you for voting!

Contributions are not tax deductible for federal income tax purposes.
Paid for by Washington State Democratic Central Committee
615 Second Ave., Seattle, WA 98104 - (206) 583-0664 -
Not authorized by any federal candidate or candidate's committee
Washington State Democratic Party
615 2nd Ave.
Seattle WA 98104 United States

Thursday, October 16, 2014

I594: Useful Gun Control or Capitalist Plot?

Under Construction 8:41 AM 10/17/2014 -RMF
This post is now out of date. I594 passed amidst dramatic expenditures. It is now the law.
Donations for and against I594  as of 10/16/14 in top graphic bar. Currently I594 has consumed an astonishing $10M of the $81M total contributions for WA election for 2014 to date. . $2.3M of the $9.5M donations for I594 come from New York State. Screenshot graphic from WA PDC. 
Below is the text of the letter I have sent WA PDC compliance officers. I have not received an answer as of yet:
HI PDC Compliance:
The 'WA Alliance for Gun Responsibility' has received a donation of $1M from New York State from EVERYTOWN FOR GUN SAFETY ACTION FUNDPresumably, if this were a WA PAC or non-profit or 527, this organization would have to list the donors that made up that $1M contribution. But in this case, an out of state organization has injected $1M into a WA initiative race from some unknown number of donors, none of which the people of WA can possibly know.  How does this conform with WA public disclosure law?
Below the break is the R code snapshot look at the pro I594 contributions to date. Ninety percent of the $8,383,561 pro I594 contributions to date are under $500. This might mean a little more if the sums of the  top ten donation amounts (range $500 : $1M) weren't ~$7M of the $8.3M of contributions.  The top ten donation amounts themselves comes from only 29 unique contributors out of a total of 7,256 unique contributors. The sums of the top ten Contributor names are ~ $6.1M of the $8.3M donations to date. Those $6.1M contributions come only from Washington and New York. Politics is a sport for the rich these days. Looking at the top ten Contributor names on the list below confirms this for I594.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

The Human Services Forum

The Human Services Forum tomorrow night is your best chance to understand candidate view points on social services. You can preview the candidate answers to some of the forum advance human services questions here. Reputedly, the debate will broadcast live on BTV 10.

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Fwd: Not again...

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Whatcom Democrats" <>
Date: Oct 14, 2014 4:08 PM
Subject: Not again...
To: "Ryan" <>

We shouldn't be shocked, but we are.
Once again, the Republicans are turning to huge corporations to finance their votes.  A large oil company is pumping $50,000 into the local Republican party1.  Coal terminal companies are spending $10,000 to buy our local charter review commission election2.

But that's not what shocks us.

With Republican legislators busy dining with lobbyists and pandering to global warming deniers, we're surprised anyone still supports their stubborn agenda of non-action.  After all, these are the same people who consistently show they care more about maintaining political gridlock and posturing than helping our local families.

Your $5 donation to the Whatcom Democrats will help us work to dump Republicans who refuse to work for the good of our county and fuel our progressive candidates: Seth Fleetwood, Satpal Sidhu, and Joy Monjure.

We've fought the Republicans before and won.  But with our opponents leaning on big business for votes, we need you to help restore balance and get the economy moving.  With your support, we win.

Click here to help send Democrats to Olympia. 
  1. Public disclosure records for Whatcom Republicans
  2. "Save Whatcom" 2014 Donor List
Copyright © 2014 Whatcom Democrats, All rights reserved.
You are receiving the email because you subscribed to our weekly announcements.

Our mailing address is:
Whatcom Democrats
P.O. Box 3095
Bellingham, WA 98227-3095

Add us to your address book

Saturday, October 11, 2014

Fwd: Get the Progressive Voters Guide early

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Aaron Ostrom, Fuse Votes <>
Date: Sat, Oct 11, 2014 at 9:01 AM
Subject: Get the Progressive Voters Guide early
To: Ryan M Ferris <>

Will you commit to sharing the Progressive Voters Guide with at least 5 people? We'll send you a special version of the guide first that makes sharing easy.

Sign Up!
Dear Friend,

"How should I vote in this Senate race?" "Which initiative on background checks is the good one?" "Who should I vote for in this judicial election?"

You may already know the answers (you are a Fuse member, after all), but odds are that many of your friends and family are not as well informed.

From ballot measures to judges and state Senate races, we're expecting dozens of razor–close races this November. The difference between winning and losing could come down to making sure less–engaged progressives not only vote, but vote in every race on the ballot.

Friday, October 10, 2014

The Campaign Finance War: Part IV

Quantile chart of Republican (red) vs Democrat (blue) Donation Amounts. Donations above $200 are largely the domain of the Republicans in this election.

The Campaign Financing War in WA 42 LD

Most of us who have thought about politics have known for some time now that at some very deep and cloaked level, the differences between the Republicans and Democrats don't pencil out as distinct in practice. No doubt the platforms of the two parties appear divergent at first glance, but in many strategically important areas, the respective party objectives end up serving the same economic masters in spite of well meaning (or perhaps well designed) campaign rhetoric.   

This is why an analysis of donor politics in Whatcom County seems absurd to me in some ways. Democrats and Republicans in Whatcom County have almost cartoonish differences in economic benefactors. The local capitalist class aligns with 'ALEC' type big business to support the Republicans and a broad group of small donation citizens of mostly liberal bent teams with high end donation environmentalists to support the Democrats. The actual contributions are obscenely representative of:

/*start conservative array here*/
 ARRAY['big corporate', 'big energy', 'Chamber of Commerce members']   
 /*start liberal array here*/
 ARRAY['Joe and Josephine Liberal', 'environmental PACs', 'social services supporters'].

In reality, no matter whether Ericksen (Republican) or Fleetwood (Democrat) becomes the next 42nd LD Senator, this is our probable Whatcom County event horizon:
  • Coal and Oil trains will  keep running day and night through Whatcom County
  • Cherry Point will become more industrialized and polluting 
  • Whatcom County's poverty rate will remain high and our professional classes[1] low in number 
  • The "Canadian dream catcher net" will still be built out by  Lummi, Costco, hotel chains, POB (airport) between Slater and Bakerview and the Mall.
  • A fracking frontier may well open up in the North County
  • And we will probably still be waiting to see if the Port finds the money to develop Bellingham's waterfront!
In this event horizon, your sons and daughters will be able to find jobs in store retail, shoveling coal, dealing black jack, and cleaning rooms. If they aspire for the professional classes (outside medical) or a career in technology, that future will have to be found elsewhere in big cities like Seattle, San Francisco, Boston or Vancouver (BC). Wouldn't it be ironic if Seattle Vancouver (BC) built a clean high tech economy but kept the Reno/Vegas trips, casino gambling, milk and gas purchases south of their border?

The big guns will be firing photon torpedoes of campaign dollars in the coming weeks. You might just want to park your space cruiser in the Romulian neutral zone until all the mailers have been delivered and the final votes are cast. Despite my cynicism, I plea with you to please remember to vote. Even if it changes little, please show the world that you vote.  Lots of data and graphs on PDC contributions below the break. Code is here. Click to enlarge charts.

Notes:[1] We do have quite a few medical and educational professionals in Whatcom County

A fiery math teacher runs for Senate in Montana

Meet Amanda Curtis; Millenial Democratic Senate Candidate for the 99% from Montana.

Imagine That!!

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

The online registration and update period for existing voters has ended ....

The online registration and update period for existing voters has ended. New WA State voters may continue to register in person (at the Whatcom County Courthouse) until October 27th. The columns below represent the delta (Orig Election Total - Active Vote Total) by week last month in the Active voter rolls for those who voted in the August Primary and the November 2013 GE. Your ballots will be mailed in Whatcom County starting October 15th.

 42,736 08/19/2014 < Total Votes in August Primary
 42,671 09/05  65
 42,658 09/10  78
 42,568 09/19  168
 42,633 09/23  103
 42,629 10/06  107

 69,709 11/25/2013 < Total Votes in November 2013 General
 68,602 09/05 1107
 68,579 09/14 1130
 67,620 09/19 2089
 68,501 09/23 1208
 68,368 10/02 1341

SQL below the break

Monday, October 6, 2014



Filtering Lost Voters

count | ballotcounted_1 | ballotcounted_2
  634 | 0               | 1
  506 | 0               | 0
  333 | 1               | 1
  211 | 0               |
  153 |                 |
   51 | 1               |
   22 | 1               | 0
    8 |                 | 1
    7 |                 | 0

We can filter 'lost' voters like this:

~14K inactive in Whatcom County
~8K inactive in 42nd LD
~2K marked inactive since Certification of Primary e.g '08/20/2014'

That filter (chart above) gives us these 'recently lost' but likely voters listed by priority:
  • 333 of that remaining ~2K who voted in both of the last General Elections.
  • 73 of that remaining ~2K who voted only in the last General Election.
  • 642 of that remaining ~2K who voted only in the General Election before last.
Data from 10/2/2014 voter database. SQL is here.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Fwd: Help take down the "Dirty Dozen" today

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "People for Seth Fleetwood" <>
Date: Oct 3, 2014 1:56 PM
Subject: Help take down the "Dirty Dozen" today
To: "Ryan Ferris" <>

Today, the League of Conservation Voters named Doug Ericksen part of the "Dirty Dozen" for being one of worst elected officials in the country for environmental legislation.

It's time we had responsible leadership in the 42nd. This race is important because it will shift the tide in the Washington State Senate and help shape environmental policy nationwide.

Fwd: No time to sleep

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: "Alex Brott, Fuse Votes" <>
Date: Oct 3, 2014 2:43 PM
Subject: No time to sleep
To: "Ryan M Ferris" <>

We're kicking off our statewide phonebanks to educate voters about progressive Matt Isenhower and the change he'll bring to the state Senate. We only have one month to go, and it's going to take all of us working together to win. Will you sign up to make calls from home for Matt Isenhower?

Sign Up!
Dear Friend,

This is it. Ballots are mailed out two weeks from today and we can't waste a minute.

Republican Budget Chair Andy Hill is facing a strong challenge from progressive Matt Isenhower in one of the closest races in the state. As their budget writer, Hill refused to close a single one of the 650 tax loopholes on the books – including the infamous Big Oil tax loophole. Now oil companies and other greedy corporations are returning the favor and spending tens of thousands of dollars backing Hill.

42nd Precincts who have lost Registrants! Active and Inactive Voters 42nd LD

Active and Inactive for voters for Whatcom County 42nd LD  at weekly intervals for the last month. Plus 42nd Precincts who have lost registrants between the the 2013 GE and today.These precincts listed below have lost more than 50 registrants or more over the last 11 months. 42nd District total active voters are essentially unchanged over the last 11 months to date. Monday, October 6th is the last date to update your voter registration on line.

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Are you Active?

10/2/2014:  October 6th is the last day to register or update your address online. Republishing this post with  updated data because of the timely importance.  - RMF

If you have not registered to vote for the general election, do so now at  I talked extensively with the Whatcom County election desk and others about 1,927 'undeliverable' (returned) primary ballots, some of which came from the 200 series precincts centered around WWU. Here is some information on reactivation of your voting status if you leave Bellingham for the summer.

If you are a registered active voter (e.g. student) and you move home for the summer, your registration status becomes inactive if your mail-in ballot is 'undeliverable' for the (August) Primary election. When you return in the fall, simply log in to MyVote WA ( with your name and birthdate, *UPDATE* your registration with your new Whatcom County/Bellingham address, and *presto* you will become an active voter here again. It is probable that many of you changed your voter registration address when you moved home (e.g. out of Whatcom County) so you could vote in your home county WA primary. Most probably, you would have not been mailed a Whatcom County ballot here. If you were a registered voter in Whatcom County, and if 'home' for you was not a county in WA State, you most probably were mailed a Primary ballot to your school year address. Simply change your voter registration to a Whatcom County address when you return to your new residence in Whatcom County in the fall. You will be activated.

Student or not, if you move, you *MUST* change your address every time you change residence. You can do this  either on-line (*preferable method*) at or by calling the elections desk for Whatcom County. Do this as soon as you find your new place here in Whatcom County.  There is no automation or reminder for you to change your voting address. This does not happen 'automagically' when you forward your mail via the USPS.  Unless you set up it, your smart phone or tablet or email will not remind you to change your voter registration address. It's all up to you. 

Below are some summary voter data base statistics as of 10/02/2014 for Whatcom County (Code here):