Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Super Tuesday Data

Note: Fixed Vermont totals - RMF 1:09 PM 3/2/2016
Super Tuesday Data. For these 12 states, some data is incomplete or incomparable for various reasons: Dem caucus held later for AK, Republican Caucus will not be held at all for CO, all precincts were not 100%  reporting as of this morning, MN,CO,AK held caucuses, not primaries etc. But here are some interesting factoids:
  • 2.7M more votes for Republicans than Democrats in these states primaries/caucuses as opposed to the 1.9M for Romney than Obama in GE2012
  • These 12 primaries/caucuses generated (5.9M(D) +  8.5M(R)) = 14.5M votes.  In the 2012GE these same states generated 32M votes, 14.7M for Obama alone.
  • Only MA,MN (Caucus),VT had more Democrats vote than Republicans
  • Reputedly, AR had more Republicans vote than Democrats for the first time since the Reconstruction
  • The states here showing some "swing" potential are Virginia,Oklahoma,Colorado. Fundamentally a (complicated) southern state, Virginia actually went to Obama in 2012 as did Florida.Oklahoma went Republican in 2012, Colorado went Democrat. Both came out for Bernie Saunders in this primary.
If you see errors, let me know. Click to enlarge charts. Charts and data compare GE 2012 with Primary 2016:

Data from:

Click to enlarge data snapshot and charts. R code here:

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