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Saturday, March 12, 2016

The failed "Southern Strategy" of the 2016 Democrats

Click to Enlarge: Sum of all Democrat votes divided into CVAP_EST 2014

Code for this post. [1,2]

 We have to ask ourselves at some point: What are the mechanisms for the suppression of the black vote in the South and how do we define it? Is it any different than in regions outside the South? The Democrats lost 910 legislative seats nationwide between 2009 - 2014. This happened here in WA as well. But it *really* happened in the South where literally dozens of legislative seats flipped from Democrat to Republican. 

 All the various effects that suppress the vote of people of color: mass incarceration, voter id laws, district gerrymandering, voting machine (DRE) lack of replacements, bitter increasing poverty rates - these can be attributed to losing the legislative houses in South especially. If the black vote is suppressed nation wide and in the South today, *Democrats were in power when this happened*. You really can't blame activists like Michelle Alexander for talking about how badly mass incarceration destroys the black electorate. Essentially, convicted felons lose their right to vote (mostly forever) in the United States. It's not just the amount of people we convict; but almost everyone who serves their time for a felony that loses the vote. This isn't the case in every country. I think the effects of mass incarceration on voting would have to include all those young men who were shot or got lost in narcotics trafficking and simply stopped seeing the value of political activism. Some thoughtful recent articles on vote suppression: 

Super Tuesday Primary Totals: Democrats/Republicans. See previous post:

     State           Dem/Rep
 [1,] "Alabama"       "47%"      
 [2,] "Arkansas"      "54%"      
 [3,] "Georgia"       "59%"      
 [4,] "Massachusetts" "191%"     
 [5,] "Oklahoma"      "73%"      
 [6,] "Tennessee"     "43%"      
 [7,] "Texas"         "51%"      
 [8,] "Vermont"       "221%"     
 [9,] "Virginia"      "76%"    


Sum of Democrat Primaries/2014 CVAP_EST as of 3/11/2016 from AP Sources from Google.

       State             Primary DemSum/CVAP      
 [1,] "Massachusetts"  "24.8%"
 [2,] "New Hampshire"  "24.4%"
 [3,] "Vermont"        "23.9%"
 [4,] "Michigan"       "16.0%"
 [5,] "Virginia"       "13.3%"
 [6,] "Oklahoma"       "11.4%"
 [7,] "Georgia"        "11.0%"
 [8,] "Alabama"        "10.7%"
 [9,] "South Carolina" "10.5%"
[10,] "Mississippi"    "9.9%" 
[11,] "Arkansas"       "9.7%" 
[12,] "Louisiana"      "8.7%" 
[13,] "Texas"          "8.5%" 
[14,] "Tennessee"      "7.6%" 

 CVAP Data: https://www.census.gov/rdo/pdf/CVAP_CSV_Format_2010-2014.zip
Primary and Caucus results as of 3/11/2016 from AP Sources:

 "All Caucuses and Primaries together:"
T_Delegates       B_Del     B_Votes       H_Del     H_Votes 
       1315         547     3299430         758     4931842 

 "Just Primaries:"
T_Delegates       B_Del     B_Votes       H_Del     H_Votes 
       1010         373     3055004         629     4773836

 "Just Caucuses:"
T_Delegates       B_Del     B_Votes       H_Del     H_Votes 
        305         174      244426         129      158006

State Type T_Delegates B_Del B_Votes H_Del H_Votes
Iowa C 44 21 697 23 701
New Hampshire P 24 15 151,584 9 95,252
Nevada C 35 15 5,678 20 6,316
South Carolina P 53 14 95,977 39 271,514
Alabama P 53 9 76,399 44 309,928
Arkansas P 32 10 64,868 22 144,580
Colorado C 66 38 72,115 28 49,314
Georgia P 102 28 214,332 72 543,008
Massachusetts P 91 45 586,716 46 603,784
Minnesota C 77 46 118,135 31 73,510
Oklahoma P 38 21 174,054 17 139,338
Tennessee P 67 23 120,333 44 245,304
Texas P 222 74 475,561 147 935,080
Vermont P 16 16 115,863 0 1,833
Virginia P 95 33 275,507 62 503,358
Kansas C 33 24 26,450 9 12,593
Louisiana P 51 14 72,240 37 221,615
Nebraska C 25 15 19,120 10 14,340
Maine C 25 15 2,231 8 1,232
Michigan P 130 67 595,222 60 576,795
Mississippi P 36 4 36,348 30 182,447


To 20 Lost Legislative Seats (Politifacts article here and their spreadsheet here. )
State Dem2009 Dem2014 Lost Region
New Hampshire 238 170 68 NE
West Virginia 107 52 55 S
Arkansas 98 47 51 S
Alabama 81 41 40 S
North Carolina 98 62 36 S
Minnesota 133 101 32 MW
Missouri 85 54 31 MW
Tennessee 63 32 31 S
Connecticut 138 108 30 NE
Indiana 69 40 29 MW
Michigan 84 58 26 MW
Mississippi 101 76 25 S
Oklahoma 62 37 25 S
Texas 86 63 23 S
Kansas 57 35 22 MW
Maine 116 94 22 NE
Ohio 65 44 21 MW
Washington 95 74 21 NW

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