Translate

Sunday, August 26, 2018

Projecting CD, LD, LCD results for 2018 from 2016 Presidential Results

My first inference is that GE 2018 midterms in WA will be highly reflective of GE 2016 Presidential votes in party preference and volume. My predictions: Increased volumes of female voters and increased volumes of "stampless voters" will make the GE 2018 midterms in WA record breaking in volume.  If you want the spreadsheets for this data, email me: Tell me who you are  and why you need that data. Click to enlarge charts.  -RMF 11:16 AM 8/26/2018.

Congressional Districts



Columns             

 [1,] "CD"  # Congressional District or (LD) Legislative District               
 [2,] "CS"   # Clinton + Stein  (per District)           
 [3,] "TJ"    # Trump + Johnson  (per District)         
 [4,] "Active2016"   # Active Registered in GE 2016     
 [5,] "Active2018"   # Active Registered in Primary 2018     
 [6,] "CSdivTJ"        # ((Clinton + Stein) / (Clinton + Stein) + (Trump + Johnson) ) * 100 
 [7,] "P"                   # Predictors. See table immediately below
 [8,] "CS_TJ.div.Active2018" # ((Clinton + Stein) + (Trump + Johnson) ) / Active2018
 [9,] "CS_TJ.div.Active2016" #  ((Clinton + Stein) + (Trump + Johnson) ) / Active2016

P Values # Predictors

CSdivTJ >=65,P:="very_blue"
CSdivTJ <=35,P:="very_red"
CSdivTJ >=55 & CSdivTJ < 65,P:="blue"
CSdivTJ <=45 & CSdivTJ > 35,P:="red"
CSdivTJ < 55 & CSdivTJ >= 50,P:="blue-red"
CSdivTJ > 45 & CSdivTJ <= 50,P:="red-blue"

In Play??

    LD CSdivTJ        P
 1: 35    46.7 red-blue
 2:  6    46.8 red-blue
 3: 25    47.2 red-blue
 4: 17    47.5 red-blue
 5: 26    47.5 red-blue
 6: 10    49.1 red-blue
 7: 42    50.5 blue-red
 8: 24    51.8 blue-red
 9: 44    53.0 blue-red
10: 28    54.8 blue-red

   CD CSdivTJ        P
1:  8    49.5 red-blue
2: 10    53.9 blue-red
3:  6    54.4 blue-red

      LCD CSdivTJ        P
 1:  19-6    45.8 red-blue
 2:   6-5    46.8 red-blue
 3: 31-10    47.3 red-blue
 4:  17-3    47.5 red-blue
 5:  26-6    47.5 red-blue
 6: 25-10    47.7 red-blue
 7:  10-1    47.8 red-blue
 8:  10-2    49.3 red-blue
 9:  44-2    49.5 red-blue
10:   2-3    50.5 blue-red
11: 35-10    50.6 blue-red
12:  24-6    51.8 blue-red
13:  30-8    52.9 blue-red
14:  44-1    53.8 blue-red
15: 29-10    54.1 blue-red
16:  47-8    54.6 blue-red


Legislative Districts


No comments: